Tag: iran

Visualizing Iran’s Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

Most Americans have little understanding or concept of Iran’s size in terms of geography or population. The ethno-religious make-up of the sprawling Mideast/West Asian nation is also deeply important, given the US is already talking about arming and supporting some kind of Kurdish-led anti-Tehran ground operation. 

Suffice it to say, Iran’s population is more than double (over 90 million people) that of neighboring Iraq’s. Iran is also the size of almost half the European continent. All of this is crucial for attempting to visualize what American military escalation there might mean, given the Trump White House has not ruled out American boots on the ground amid the unfolding ‘Operation Epic Fury’. Consider: the US spent two blood-soaked decades occupying Iraq (again, significantly smaller than the Islamic Republic). Russia has spent over four years on its military operation in Ukraine, and Iran dwarfs Ukraine in size.

Size of Iran vs. Alaska (with the continental USA for scale). Imagine a war that covered some nearly one-third of the continental United States, and and outside force trying to pacify a population of 90 million within that vast geography. 

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The Iran War’s Most Precious Commodity Isn’t Oil

The CIA calls it the “strategic commodity” of the Middle East. But it’s not referring to oil or natural gas. What the American spy agency has in mind is far more prosaic: drinking water. Don’t underestimate it, though, because if military hostilities continue to escalate, water could become the geopolitical commodity that decides the war between the US and Iran.

The Persian Gulf is gifted with a fabulous hydrocarbon endowment, worth trillions of dollars. What its desertic countries don’t have is water. From the 1970s onward, the oil money bought a solution: desalination plants. Today, the region relies on nearly 450 facilities to stop everyone going thirsty.

The US Central Intelligence Agency has been briefing American policymakers for decades on the inherent risk of relying on those plants for such a crucial supply. In a secret assessment in the early 1980s — since declassified — the CIA said: “Senior government officials in some of the countries perceive it [water] as more important than oil to the national well-being.”

More than four decades later, not much has changed. Desalination remains a relatively cost-effective technology to transform sea water into drinking water. The downside is the vulnerability of the installations, and the oil and gas consumption required to fire the power generators that run the plants.

About 100 million people live in the countries belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman — all now under Iranian attack. Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE are, for all practical purposes, completely dependent on the desalination plants, particularly for metropolises such as Dubai. Saudi Arabia, and especially its capital, Riyadh, also relies heavily on them.

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Questions Mount Over Viral Claims of Apocalyptic Iran War Briefings in the Military

A viral claim alleges that as many as 200 U.S. troops at 50 military installations were told the war in Iran is meant to hasten the Biblical end times and the return of Christ. But is the story true?

While the claims have been breathlessly repeated online—and even by some major outlets—key red flags have been ignored, as Americans hit “repost” on a story that feels all too plausible in the current news environment. The truth, however, is far less clear in this rabbit hole of uncertainty, which may reveal more about the fractured nature of modern society than anything else.

Apocalypse Claims

The story first appeared in a Monday evening report by Jonathan Larsen on his Substack, in which he relayed a claim by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) that it had received reports of apocalyptic religious briefings on the Iran war conducted by military leadership across more than 40 units stationed at roughly 30 installations. MRFF highlighted a single email, which they claim is representative of over 110 incidents, all of which are being kept confidential to avoid reprisals. 

The email in question details the account of a non-commissioned officer (NCO) in a unit outside of Iran, who claims that his commander told him to instruct his troops that President Trump is anointed by God and that the Iran war is the fulfillment of Biblical prophecy relating to Armageddon and the return of Christ. At the end of the email, the NCO states that these actions violated their constitutional oath and threatened morale and unit cohesion.

Larsen’s reporting provides the first clues that MRFF president and founder, Mikey Weinstein, isn’t your typical polished non-profit figurehead. Quotes attributed to Weinstein include words such as “wet dream” and “shit”—unusual language selection for a representative of an advocacy group—as he explains his issues with Christian fundamentalist proselytization in the military, and how that violates the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

Weinstein also notes that the group has received similar complaints from service members during previous conflicts involving Israel. In a lengthier statement at the close of the article, Weinstein refers to President Trump as “the narcissistic, sociopathic, orange, POS tRump.”

The Military Religious Freedom Foundation

On Tuesday morning, a post on the Military Religious Freedom Foundation website expanded on the original claim, now indicating knowledge of 200 complaints involving apocalyptic preaching about the Iran conflict from 50 installations.

A look at the organization’s website reveals more of Weinstein’s style: articles on the site generally feature provocative titles and dramatic, politically themed AI-generated art. A link to a video of Weinstein in his car, letting loose with profanity-laced opinions about Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, appeared on the site’s front page. In style and demeanor, the website is at odds with what one typically expects of a straight-laced advocacy group.

Previously having served as an Air Force JAG officer, Weinstein says he started the group as his son experienced anti-Semitic bias while attending the Air Force Academy, when students were pressured to see the film The Passion of the Christ. Critics have noted that Weinstein draws a relatively large salary from the organization, accounting for almost half of its 2024 expenses at $364,392, which he has previously defended as commensurate with his legal training and extensive work hours.

The Sole Source for Iran “Armageddon” Claims

More than any idiosyncrasies in the organization’s presentation, the most unusual part of this story is that MRFF is the sole source of the recent “Armageddon” allegations. Despite alleged complaints from hundreds of soldiers across dozens of installations, no public faces—or even anonymous internet postings—have appeared that offer support for the claim, and no journalists with other organizations have indicated having a direct whistleblower source on the matter.

One of the largest organizations performing similar work is the Freedom From Religion Foundation (FFRF). With an operating budget over 15 times that of MRFF, the FFRF promoted MRFF’s claims on Tuesday, prompting The Debrief to inquire as to whether they had received any similar reports that could corroborate the story.

“We have interacted with MRFF before,” Chris Line, Legal Counsel for the Freedom From Religion Foundation, told The Debrief. “It would be surprising if they were making this complaint up, but we have not been able to verify their complaints yet and haven’t received any complaints from service members ourselves.”

When pressed on whether the organization found it unusual that a comparatively smaller group has been the only one to receive such complaints, and that nothing corroborating the claims has appeared publicly, FFRF conceded to The Debrief that it was difficult to explain.

“The volume of complaints that MRFF has reported is hard to believe given that we haven’t heard from anyone about it ourselves, but the lack of corresponding social media posts, etc. is not,” Line told The Debrief.

“We’re very used to dealing with anonymous complainants who face potential negative repercussions for speaking out about state/church issues,” Line added. “We’ve received complaints from military personnel in the past, and the concern about repercussions can be heightened in that kind of environment, especially given the current administration.”

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US destroys Iranian submarine; Report: CIA facilities hit in drone attacks

The United States has destroyed an Iranian submarine and 16 other vessels as part of its ongoing military campaign against Iran, while two CIA facilities in the region were reportedly damaged in Iranian drone attacks.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said American forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets in Iran using more than 2,000 munitions since the start of the operation, which the U.S. has dubbed Operation Epic Fury.

In a briefing, Cooper said U.S. forces are carrying out strikes against Iran “24/7” and that the Iranian regime’s ability to retaliate is rapidly weakening.

“In retaliation, the Iranian regime has launched over 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones,” Cooper said. “We are seeing Iran’s ability to hit us and our partners is declining, while our combat power, on the other hand, is building.”

Cooper said U.S. bombers have conducted major strikes against Iranian military infrastructure. B-2 stealth bombers and B-1 bombers carried out what he described as “uncontested surgical strikes against multiple missile facilities,” while B-52 bombers targeted ballistic missile sites and command-and-control posts.

He said the campaign has also dealt a major blow to Iran’s naval forces.

“We are also sinking the Iranian Navy — the entire navy,” Cooper said. “Thus far, we’ve destroyed 17 Iranian ships, including the most operational Iranian submarine, that now has a hole in its side.”

“For decades, the Iranian regime has harassed international shipping,” he added. “Today, there’s not a single Iranian ship underway in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman.”

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A trial seeks to tie Iranian paramilitary to alleged assassination plot in US

While the U.S. fights a widening war in Iran, American prosecutors are airing claims that Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was entangled in a foiled 2024 assassination plot that eyed then-candidate Donald Trump as a possible target.

The alleged scheme is at the center of a criminal trial that started in a federal court in New York last week, days before the Mideast combat that now looms in the background.

“This trial is happening in interesting times,” Judge Eric Komitee told lawyers this week in the case of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani national accused of trying to hire hit men to kill a U.S. politician. Merchant didn’t name a target but searched online for Trump rally locations, according to prosecutors, who introduced evidence Tuesday that Merchant’s laptop contained photos of both Trump and then-President Joe Biden at a time when they were rivals for the presidency.

An FBI agent testified Tuesday that Merchant told her he had a Revolutionary Guard “handler” and believed the handler would help bankroll the plan. Merchant’s lawyer suggested the purported statements might not be accurate.

Merchant, 47, has pleaded not guilty to attempted terrorism and other charges. His attorneys say prosecutors are trying to wedge evidence into a narrative that doesn’t fit.

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Marco Rubio Says U.S. About to “UNLEASH CHIANG” on Iran — Warns Scope and Intensity of Strikes Will SURGE in Coming Hours and Days

Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stark warning Monday that the United States is about to dramatically escalate its military campaign against Iran, declaring that the next phase of strikes will bring a massive surge in power and intensity as the West moves to dismantle the Iranian regime’s military capabilities.

This new warning comes after the US Consulate in Dubai was on fire after it was hit by an Iranian drone on Tuesday.

Standing before reporters ahead of a series of congressional briefings on Capitol Hill, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary Marco Rubio made it clear that the current wave of attacks is only the beginning.

The officials are scheduled to meet first with members of the Senate and then with the House.

“…hide behind the immunity of a massive short-term ballistic missile inventory, or the ability to make them or launch them. And so, CENTCOM, in a joint operation, is carrying out the systematic destruction of their missile belt, the destruction of their launchers, and the destruction of their ability to make these, as well as the destruction of their Navy.

From what I’ve been told by the Department of War, everything is on or ahead of schedule and proceeding toward these objectives. We have every confidence in the world that these objectives will be achieved.

The last point I would make is—and I said this yesterday, and I repeat—what’s about to happen… You’re about to see we’re going to unleash Chiang on these people in the next few hours and days.

You’re really going to begin to perceive a change in the scope and intensity of these attacks as, frankly, the two most powerful air forces in the world take apart this terroristic regime, defang it, and take away its ability to threaten its neighbors or hide behind a zone of immunity that allows them to develop their nuclear ambitions.”

“Unleash Chiang” originated as a 1950s American conservative battle cry to remove the U.S. Seventh Fleet from the Taiwan Strait, allowing Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek to attack mainland China. It signifies a desire to take aggressive, disruptive action to overthrow a rival.

Gen. Douglas MacArthur was famously relieved of his duties by President Truman in part for publicly pushing to “unleash” Chiang.

According to Rubio, the coming escalation will demonstrate the overwhelming force of American and Israeli airpower as they target Iran’s strategic military assets.

The secretary emphasized that the objective is straightforward: eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors and prevent the radical clerical regime from ever acquiring nuclear weapons.

Rubio argued that the regime’s brutality toward its own people proves why it cannot be trusted with such power.

“This terroristic, radical, clerical-led regime cannot ever be allowed to have nuclear weapons,” Rubio said. “We saw what they were willing to do to their own people. They were willing to slaughter their own people in the streets. Imagine what they would do to us. Imagine what they would do to others.”

The administration maintains that the campaign’s focus is on destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program and weakening its naval capabilities, systems officials say could threaten U.S. forces and allies throughout the Middle East.

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Saudi Arabia Is Preparing to Strike Iran

Saudia Arabia is preparing to launch a counter-attack against Iran.

“Well-placed military and diplomatic sources in the region tell me Saudi Arabia is very close to allowing its air force to strike targets inside Iran after facing unprecedented missile and drone attacks on its civilians, including incoming missiles today targeting Daman, its fifth-largest city,” chief national security correspondent at Fox News, Jennifer Griffin revealed. “Quote, the next 24 hours is going to be intense, I’m told.”

She went on to explain that Operation Epic fury wouldn’t currently be possible without moves made in the first Trump administration, namely the Abraham Accords.

“What’s truly extraordinary, about this development is that it would not have been possible if Israel had not been brought in under U.S. Central Command at the end of the first Trump administration,” she said. “Carrying out airstrikes takes tremendous deconfliction and coordination. Israel used to be attached to the European command due to sensitivities with the Arab states that did not recognize Israel. That changed with the Abraham Accords.”

Griffin also said that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and the U.S. military are operating with distinct objectives.

Israeli forces are concentrating on decapitating regime leadership and striking command nodes in western Iran, along with targeting military industries, surface-to-surface missile systems, and other “terror regime” assets directly tied to threats against Israel. 

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CIA Moves To Arm Kurdish Forces To Foment Govt Collapse In Iran: Officials

Here are the most critical developments unfolding in the US-Iran conflict: 

  • CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say: CNN
  • State Department securing military aircraft, charter flights to get Americans out of Middle East
  • Iran International is claiming (unverified) Iran’s Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba Khamenei as new Ayatollah under heavy IRGC pressure to ensure hardline continuity and regime stability after his father’s death
  • Drone hits CIA station in Saudi Arabia, also reportedly a consulate in Dubai. WaPo: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East.
  • IAEA’s Grossi says there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb; Iran’s large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern
  • Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime. Future insurgency fragmentation and Iraq-style nightmare coming to Iran?
  • Trump tries to articular war justification: says if we have a little high oil prices, could be for a little while, but they will drop, and could even be below the levels before, but that he ‘had to’ act or else Iran would have ‘used nukes’. Claims Israel didn’t force America’s hand. Admits leadership vacuum.
  • US to offer military protection to ships/insurance in the Strait of Hormuz 
  • The Pentagon has released Operation Epic Fury’s objectives; 1- Demilitarization of Iran: destruction of its missile forces, production facilities, and naval fleet 2- Elimination of the terrorist regime 3- Protection of the United States from current and future threats 4-  Ensuring that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons
  • UAE mulling joining US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Saudis too, to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on their countries.
  • The American Embassy in Riyadh has been hit in another drone attack, with WSJ reporting it was struck twice Tuesday, resulting in damage to the roof. More embassies across region are shuttering, including the US Embassy in Beirut.
  • President Trump mulling arming anti-Tehran militias. But he hasn’t decided yet while urging Iranians to rise up and be Washington’s ‘boots on the ground.’
  • The Israelis just struck the meeting of the Iranian Supreme Council where officials were gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader, a senior Israeli official told Fox News. “Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader.”
  • US-Israel bombing is expanding inside Iran. Explosions heard in the northwestern cities of Tabriz and Urmia, as the capital no longer the only focus.
  • Iraq’s crude oil output is being significantly curtailed. An update from Iraq specifies a shutdown of 460,000 bpd at West Qurna 2 and a cut of 700,000 bpd at Rumaila, while warning that more than 3 million bpd could be forced offline in the coming days if tanker access remains limited.
  • Export crude bottlenecks are developing across Iraq. Storage at southern export terminals is nearing critical capacity because tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed. Iraq has also halted most Kurdistan-to-Turkey exports via Ceyhan, leaving only about 50,000 bpd for domestic use.
  • Iranian retaliation expanded on Tuesday, with Gulf states’ energy infrastructure hit by multiple drones. This included a drone strike on Fujairah in the UAE, a key bunkering and crude-loading hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a drone strike at the Port of Salalah in Oman.
  • The U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran is intensifying. Strikes are said to be hitting major targets, including state media, military command sites, and leadership compounds, with the reported Iranian death toll rising to 787 since the start of Operation Epic Fury.
  • The war is spreading into a broader regional conflict. Israel has expanded attacks into Lebanon, including renewed strikes on Beirut and a ground move into the south, while regional actors such as Qatar and possibly Saudi Arabia are portrayed as being drawn more directly into the conflict.
  • France sending aircraft carrier to Mediterranean, says Macron

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Hacked Tehran Traffic Cameras Fed Israeli Intelligence Before Strike On Khamenei 

Years before the air strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israeli intelligence had been quietly mapping the daily rhythms of Tehran. According to reporting by the Financial Times (paywalled), nearly all of the Iranian capital’s traffic cameras had been hacked years earlier, their footage encrypted and transmitted to Israeli servers. One camera angle near Pasteur Street, close to Khamenei’s compound, allowed analysts to observe the routines of bodyguards and drivers: where they parked, when they arrived and whom they escorted. That data was fed into complex algorithms that built what intelligence officials call a “pattern of life,” detailed profiles including addresses, work schedules and, crucially, which senior officials were being protected and transported. The surveillance stream was one of hundreds feeding Israel’s intelligence system, which combines signals interception from Unit 8200, human assets recruited by the Mossad and large-scale data analysis by military intelligence.

When US and Israeli intelligence determined that Khamenei would attend a Saturday morning meeting at his compound, the opportunity was judged unusually favorable. Two people familiar with the operation told the FT that US intelligence provided confirmation from a human source that the meeting was proceeding as planned, a level of certainty required for a target of such magnitude. Israeli aircraft, reportedly airborne for hours, fired as many as 30 precision munitions. The strike was carried out in daylight, which the Israeli military said created tactical surprise despite heightened Iranian alertness. The Financial Times reports that the assassination was a political decision as much as a technological feat. Even during last year’s 12-day war, when Israeli strikes killed more than a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists and senior military officials and disabled air defences through cyber operations and drones, Israel did not attempt to kill Khamenei.

The capability to do so, however, had been built over decades. Former Mossad official Sima Shine told the FT that Israel’s strategic focus on Iran dates back to a 2001 directive from then-prime minister Ariel Sharon instructing intelligence chief Meir Dagan to make the Islamic Republic the priority target. What distinguishes the latest operation, according to the FT, is the scale of automation. Target tracking that once required painstaking visual confirmation has increasingly been handled by algorithm-driven systems parsing billions of data points. One person familiar with the process described it as an “assembly line with a single product: targets.”

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US Embassies Say They Can’t Help Evacuate Americans From the Middle East Despite Advisory to Leave

Multiple US embassies in the Middle East have told Americans they cannot facilitate evacuations, despite a State Department advisory for US citizens to leave more than a dozen countries in the region, Business Insider reported on Tuesday.

“The US Embassy is not in a position at this time to evacuate or directly assist Americans in departing Israel,” the US Embassy in Jerusalem said in a post on X.

Israel’s airspace has been closed since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on Saturday, provoking Iranian missile and drone attacks across the region. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said Americans who wanted to leave Israel could take shuttles set up by the Israeli government that are taking people to Taba, Egypt, but his embassy said that it couldn’t guarantee the safety of Americans who choose to take the shuttles.

“The US Embassy cannot make any recommendation (for or against) the [Israeli] Ministry of Tourism’s shuttle,” the embassy said. “If you choose to avail yourself of this option to depart, the US government cannot guarantee your safety. The information is provided as a courtesy to those wishing to leave Israel.”

The US Embassy in Doha said that Americans who wish to leave Qatar should “take advantage of commercial transportation options” and that those who choose to stay “should prepare contingency plans should the situation deteriorate,” but added that “these alternative plans should not rely on the US government for assisted departure or evacuation.”

The State Department said on Tuesday that it would charter planes from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan and try to facilitate additional ground options for Americans in Israel.

President Trump was asked why there wasn’t an evacuation plan already in place, and he said it was because “it all happened very quickly,” though he oversaw a major US military deployment to the region and had been threatening to bomb Iran for nearly two months.

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