Trump’s Legacy Will Ultimately Be Determined By The Outcome Of The Third Gulf War

The Democrats retook control of Congress in an electoral bloodbath that decimated the Republicans during the midterms. Many had predicted that this would happen, and it’s not because of the Canadian meddling that the White House recently drew attention to or any other countries’ related efforts, but due to the cost of living surging as a result of the Third Gulf War that Trump initiated with Bibi. Higher oil prices naturally translated into higher prices across the board that hit average Americans very hard.

Trump earlier threatened to become “Mr. Veto” if the Republicans lost control of Congress, elaborating that the Supreme Court recently strengthened his executive authority, and his sharing on social media of a pic of a red hat with the word “VETO” on it after the results poured in suggests that he’s serious. That’s sensible since it would be illogical for him to pass up the opportunity to veto legislation against his agenda when the Democrats don’t have the two-thirds supermajority in both chambers to overrule him.

The Democrats will therefore have to either compromise over the next two years or the US will remain legislatively paralyzed with both sides blaming the other ahead of the next elections. The Democrats might also try to once again impeach Trump, but they lack the two-thirds supermajority in the Senate to oust him from office, so it would only be symbolic. In any case, Trump might pivot towards foreign policy if domestic policy is deadlocked, which could have important implications for many countries.

Chief among them is Iran since Trump’s legacy will ultimately be determined by the outcome of the Third Gulf War. Each side blames the other for perpetuating the conflict across the entire year, but just like the Democrats will have to compromise if they want any of their legislation to pass, so too must Trump compromise with Iran if he wants to save his legacy. The reason is simple and it’s that perpetuating the high cost of living sparked by higher oil prices will doom the Republicans in 2028.

The scenario of a Democrat president presiding over a Democrat-controlled Congress would spell the end of everything that Trump achieved at home and abroad during his second term, and it’s a credible scenario too since voters care more about the economy than foreign policy or so-called “culture wars”. About that, the Democrats’ landslide wouldn’t have happened without some Republicans either staying home or voting for the Democrats in protest, which they did due to their surging cost of living.

This doesn’t mean that they “betrayed” Trump or the causes that they supported just two years ago, however, since most of them likely believed that Trump would indeed become “Mr. Veto” to preserve his achievements for at least the next two years. What they wanted to do was simply show him that the higher cost of living that the Third Gulf War is responsible for, which many of them consider to be a voluntary war since they don’t believe that Iran was on the verge of building a nuke, is unacceptable.

Therefore, nothing would rejuvenate his base more than to swiftly compromise with Iran as a means of showing them that he heard their message loud and clear, which would then facilitate a gradual decrease in the cost of living that could restore the economy by 2028 and help the Republicans win.

If he remains bogged down in the Gulf or provokes Iran into obliterating the region’s energy infrastructure in retaliation for being nuked, for example, then MAGA will likely be swept into the dustbin of history.

Keep reading

The Energy Crisis Escalates: The Dual Threat Of More War In The Middle East And Hurricane Isaias Damaging U.S. Refineries In The Gulf Is Pushing Oil Prices Even Higher

Just when it seemed like we had hit a period of relative calm, global events are starting to accelerate again. Within the past 24 hours, there have been a couple of absolutely enormous developments. First of all, Tropical Storm Isaias has become Hurricane Isaias and we are being told that it will make landfall along the Gulf Coast. That is potentially a major problem because the Gulf Coast accounts for over 50 percent of the crude oil refining capacity in the United States. If any of that capacity is taken offline for an extended period of time, that will drive fuel prices substantially higher. Meanwhile, Iran has been attacking tankers at a very alarming pace this week, and President Trump is reportedly considering a new wave of airstrikes on Iran…

This is a major bombshell.

If the U.S. starts extensively bombing Iran again, the war in the Middle East could spiral completely out of control.

The good news is that President Trump is now pledging that the U.S. will not be bombing Iran until after the midterms…

Keep reading

US evacuating Middle East bases – NBC

The US military has quietly begun withdrawing troops from bases across the Middle East, while Washington is ordering diplomatic personnel to leave several missions in the region, NBC News reports.

The moves come as President Donald Trump considers launching a new wave of attacks on Iran, and the withdrawals resemble preparations made by the Pentagon and State Department ahead of the initial US-Israeli strikes in February, NBC reported on Wednesday, citing two US officials and two people familiar with the matter.

US troops stationed in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait are among those being relocated, according to the report. Washington reportedly intends to maintain a limited presence at its regional bases, including personnel responsible for air defenses and security.

Ahead of the February 28 attack, the Pentagon withdrew large numbers of troops from potentially vulnerable bases to shield them from expected Iranian retaliation. Tehran accused Washington of using Gulf residents as “human shields” after thousands of US service members took shelter in civilian hotels and office buildings.

Keep reading

Hegseth meets Netanyahu during secret visit to Israel; said to discuss ‘threats in region’

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held a secret meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday.

A spokesman for Netanyahu confirmed on Tuesday afternoon that the meeting, first reported by Axios, took place. Doron Spielman said Netanyahu met with Hegseth at the Ovda Air Force base in southern Israel, where US fighter jets and refuelers are stationed. He said they discussed “the threats in the region,” and the US-Israel partnership in dealing both offensively and defensively with those threats.

Earlier, Hegseth confirmed that he had made an unannounced trip to the Middle East, but did not specify his location or travels, saying only that he had met with US troops while in the region.

It was not clear from the initial Axios report whether other Israeli officials or military personnel were present at the meeting, though later reports indicated Defense Minister Israel Katz attended but IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Mossad head Roman Gofman did not.

News of Hegseth’s trip came a day after US President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu in next week’s election — Israel’s first since the Hamas terror group’s devastating attack on October 7, 2023, which shook the country and plunged it into war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Keep reading

The Biggest Winners And Losers From The Petrodollar’s Decline

The Iran war is straining US weapons stockpiles and raising doubts about Washington’s ability to protect the Persian Gulf.

If that weakens the petrodollar and pushes oil producers away from the US financial system, two assets face clear headwinds: the US dollar and US Treasuries.

The petrodollar system helped create structural demand for both.

If oil exporters sell more energy outside the dollar system, fewer oil dollars need to flow back through Wall Street and into Treasury securities.

At the same time, the US government needs to borrow staggering sums to finance its deficits, military commitments, entitlement programs, and interest expense.

That means rising supply of Treasuries could collide with weakening structural demand.

Watch the 10-year Treasury yield.

The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely – and erroneously – regarded as the risk-free rate of return.

The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system – a critical measure akin to its beating heart.

Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.

A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% in late February 2026. Now it is around 5.26%, an increase of roughly 129 basis points. 129 bps might not seem like much, but with over $40 trillion in debt and growing, every basis point matters.

Keep reading

Record Tanker Rates Leave Heavy Crude Stranded In The Americas

The Middle East crisis has driven tanker rates to all-time highs and created a shortage of vessels. This oil logistics problem is now causing a ripple effect, tipping the heavy crude market in North and South America into oversupply – while Asia and Europe grapple with a shortage of heavy grades.

Canada is producing over 5 million barrels of crude daily, most of it heavy crude. Some 4 million barrels daily of that goes south to U.S. refineries. Venezuelan production has also moved higher after the U.S. disposed of the country’s government and took control of the oil industry. According to Reuters, a lot of this heavy crude is stuck at home because of the record freight costs that have dampened appetite, pressuring prices in Canada, Colombia, and Ecuador. Venezuelan crude goes mostly to the U.S. Gulf Coast, so it is not as vulnerable to freight rate developments.

Prices for Canadian, Colombia, and Ecuadorian heavy crude have all shed some $10 per barrel in recent weeks, the report said, citing Argus data. All the flagship grades are now trading at the lowest in six weeks, with Western Canadian Select reaching $74 per barrel last week, before rebounding to $79.50 at the time of writing.

Ecuador’s flagship heavy crude grade, Oriente, has also recovered, after dropping to $76 per barrel last week, now trading at over 84 per barrel. Colombia’s Vasconia was the most expensive of the three last week, trading at $84 per barrel, and it has also probably gone up this week, as all oil gains on the flurry of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

These prices cited above seem quite enticing on a market where Russian Urals fetches close to $120 per barrel, and Iran Light sells for $104 per barrel, despite the U.S. Navy blockade. However, these prices exclude freight costs and insurance, and these have reached up to $40 per barrel of crude, at a time when heavy crude is in especially strong demand because of the global diesel crunch. Heavy crude yields more diesel than lighter grades, which is quite a hot topic right now.

“You need a ship and the price of ships are going up, and the availability ships are going down,” TP ICAP analyst Scott Shelton told Reuters. Global tanker rates have soared this year due to Middle Eastern producers taking to ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz. For this, they use shuttle tankers, including smaller carriers, to sneak the oil through Hormuz and then load it on supertankers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, supertanker rates from the Gulf to Asia hit $1.4 million daily earlier this month.

Shipping costs on the route from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe, meanwhile, have surged to $46 million in total, equal to $24.50 per barrel of crude. That compares to $6.5 million, or some $4 per barrel, before the war. The price is even higher on the route from the Americas to Asia, at over $80 million or $40 per barrel. It is little wonder why refiners in Europe and Asia are balking at the price and staying away from purchases.

Keep reading

Oil Rises After MidEast Attacks Spread And Escalate, Stoking Supply Fears

Oil prices rose at this evening’s futures open after renewed escalation of attacks by Iran and its proxies in the Middle East.

WTI is pushing back up towards Friday’s highs.

This move comes as President Trump claims that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an ‘energy ceasefire’ which may just stabilize diesel prices around the world, but does nothing for exponentially rising tanker rates and the tightness in the physical oil markets.

Treasury markets are closed Monday, silencing the one cross-asset signal that typically anchors risk sentiment – meaning there will be no (cash) bond market verdict on what this weekend of renewed and re-escalated violence wrought.

“In quieter conditions, geopolitical headlines can often have an outsized impact,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients. But with the US inflation reading, several central bank speakers and the start of another US earnings season this week, “there will be plenty for markets to digest,” he wrote.

Dramatic Videos Show Several Tankers On Fire In Strait Of Hormuz This Weekend

Yet another tanker has been struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, which brings the total number to at least two or possibly as many as three suffering damage in the last 24 hours, chiefly from sea mines.

A slew of videos showing tankers striking mines have emerged on social media over the weekend, at a moment attacks on international vessels by Iranian forces are surging to wartime highs…

Keep reading

CENTCOM: U.S. jet strikes commercial vessel in Gulf of Oman alleged to have attempted to violate American blockade

American forces disabled another cargo vessel allegedly attempting to violate the United States blockade against Iranian ports, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

A U.S. fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica (“Arika Sun”) on Saturday while it was transiting in the Gulf of Oman.

“U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces disabled a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Oct. 10, after the ship’s crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to run the ongoing naval blockade against Iran,” the command posted to social media on Saturday.

According to CENTCOM, the vessel was struck “with a precision munition, fully disabling the ship’s propulsion without harming the crew.” Video footage provided by the command showed flames erupting in an explosion as the ship was struck.

The vessel was alleged to have departed from an Iranian port.

Since CENTCOM resumed its blockade against Iranian ports on July 14th, American forces have disabled four ships and turned 135 around.

Additionally, the command stated that during the same period, U.S. forces destroyed 10 tankers linked to the multibillion-dollar shadow network of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“All mariners are advised to heed blockade warnings from CENTCOM forces,” the command asserted.

Keep reading

The Alert Level For The Iranian Military Has Been Raised To The Highest Possible Level As A Massive Escalation Appears To Be Imminent

The Great Middle East War is poised to escalate to an entirely new level, and that could have huge implications for the entire planet. Diesel prices are already spiraling out of control, and strict energy rationing measures are already being implemented in impoverished nations such as Pakistan. Unfortunately, it appears that another round of fighting could be about to erupt in the Middle East. Within the past 24 hours, there have been a lot of rumors that the alert level for the Iranian military has been raised to the highest level possible. According to a major Iranian news agency, these rumors are accurate…

Why is this happening now?

Well, things have gotten quite crazy in the region over the past several days.

On Saturday, the Houthis crossed a very clear red line by firing missiles at the capital city of Saudi Arabia…

Keep reading

The Mirage of Statecraft: America’s Blind Drift in West Asia

For decades, the architecture of West Asia has rested on a comforting fiction: that Pax Americana could indefinitely manage the region through the policy of offshore balancing, security guarantees to autocrats and the supreme might of the U.S. military.

That order is gone. Not bruised, not bending, but wholly vaporized.

Washington’s illusion that it could facilely pivot away from the region while maintaining a stranglehold on its security dynamics has collided with the hard reality of enduring quagmires. Current historical events have swept away the geopolitical framework of the past that relied on predictable diplomatic patterns, managed proxy clashes and the arrogant belief that normalization pacts could be achieved while entirely ignoring public sentiment.

As Washington stumbles through the wreckage, one inescapable harrowing question hangs in the air: the old-order is spent; the status quo is dead; America is rudderless, clueless and at war. So what now?

To understand how the United States found itself adrift, one must confront a bipartisan delusion. For a quarter century, since the launch of the “war on terror,” U.S. strategists have operated on the flawed belief that military might could permanently freeze a dynamic region in embers.

Washington thought it could dispense billions in weaponry, project power through sprawling military bases across the Persian Gulf and treat the fundamental grievances of millions as merely background noise. It assumed that Arab rulers would remain compliant, that energy routes would remain permanently pacified by default and that their adversaries, like Iran, could be permanently contained through economic starvation, sabotage and periodic airstrikes.

The foundation has buckled under the weight of its own contradictions. The proliferation of precision drones, ballistic missiles and asymmetric warfare has punctured the myth of invulnerability. The comforting scripts of past decades no longer apply.

The United States now finds itself entangled in ever-widening military clashes. It is a superpower operating on muscle memory, reacting with kinetic force and without a coherent doctrinal compass. A rudderless empire is dangerous; not because of its strength, but because of its unpredictability.

Washington’s current geopolitical posture fluctuates between grand attempts to engineer a “new regional order” through flawed summits and reactively managing wars without a clear vision. Policy roadmaps look brilliant in think tanks, but they completely fail to align with the fractured realities of Beirut, San’a, Tehran, or Gaza. Policymakers ignore the reality that regional state and non-state actors have learned to operate around, beneath and directly against American power.

To label the current American establishment “clueless” is not an insult; it is a structural diagnosis. There is a profound failure of imagination among leaders who refuse to accept that U.S. hegemony in West Asia is no longer the organizing principle of local affairs. Regional powers are hedging, diversifying partnerships by building stronger ties with China and Russia, while pursuing their own agendas independent of Washington’s preferences.

When fighting a war you do not know how to exit and clinging to a status quo that has turned to ashes, you are no longer shaping events. Events are shaping you.

If the old superpower playbook is bankrupt and you are flying blind, what comes next? It is unrealistic to believe that the political conditions that led to the 1995 Oslo Accords or the 2010-2011 Arab Spring can be recreated today.

The Gaza revolution of October 7, 2023, alongside the ongoing U.S.-Israel war against Iran, have established a completely new reality for the region. The road ahead for the United States demands a radical sober geopolitical reckoning built on epochal realities; much like the following:

  • Acknowledge the limits of power: Washington must accept that it can no longer dictate and control the geopolitical dynamics of the Levant and the Persian Gulf. It cannot rely on sheer military might to sustain its regional alliances with undemocratic regimes. The U.S.-led security framework has been exposed as an outdated fantasy that needs to be completely abandoned. Security will increasingly be negotiated, or fought over, by the people who actually live there.
  • Prioritize diplomatic statecraft over force: A realistic withdrawal from the addiction to endless interventions is long overdue. If the U.S. insists on maintaining a footprint in the region, it must replace its default reliance on military force and transactional alliances with diplomacy involving all regional stakeholders. It cannot continue treating allies merely as military outposts and and gas stations.
  • Stop enabling the Zionist colony: High priority must be given to the immediate cessation of all military assistance and diplomatic backing for Israel; ending the decades-long blank check policy. Washington should instead leverage its significant economic and diplomatic weight to end the genocide in occupied Gaza and the West Bank and halt Israel’s military escalation against its neighbors.
  • Palestinian grievances must be addressed: True lasting regional peace is impossible without placing justice for the Palestinians at the center of all diplomatic efforts. The United States must pivot toward comprehending and addressing root political grievances rather than furthering Israel’s reliance on brute military force. Until Washington transitions from active accomplice in Israel’s protracted expansive wars and begins acting as an honest broker bound by international law, any talk of regional stability will remain a cruel and lethal mirage.

The courage of regional state and non-state actors who, at great cost, have been resisting injustice has inspired a wave of action among frustrated, subjugated and oppressed people across the globe.

West Asia is writing a new chapter in real time. It is being written in the ink of shifting alliances, bitter resentments and intense struggles for local autonomy. The United States will be left completely sidelined, bypassed not by another global superpower, but by the relentless march of a region that has finally learned to move forward without asking permission from Washington. America’s political class must wake up to the changing reality.

Keep reading