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The September Consumer Price Index has come in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with prices rising another 0.6% in a single month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the largest monthly increase in five months, driven primarily by energy. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September alone, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase, while the overall energy index rose 5.2%. The politicians and economists continue talking about inflation as though these monthly reports represent the entire cost-of-living problem. They seem incapable of understanding that Americans are paying these increases ON TOP of the massive inflation that has already accumulated since 2020.

The breakdown of September inflation illustrates just how unevenly these increases are hitting consumers. Energy prices are now 20.4% higher than a year ago, gasoline has surged 34.2%, and fuel oil has exploded 74.2%. Airline fares have risen 22.4%, while education is up 3.8% and shelter another 3.2%. These are not insignificant expenses that households can simply eliminate. People must drive to work, heat their homes, pay their mortgages or rent, and purchase the necessities of life. The government can exclude food and energy to produce its preferred core inflation figure of 2.6%, but nobody gets to exclude those expenses from their household budget.

The cost of living was already elevated before this latest surge. The inflation accumulated during the pandemic never disappeared. Prices did not return to 2020 levels simply because the annual inflation rate temporarily declined. When a household is already paying roughly 30% more for many everyday expenses than it did before the pandemic, another 3.7% increase means the purchasing power of its income deteriorates further. This is why the public becomes increasingly angry when politicians announce that inflation is improving. They are discussing the RATE of increase while the public is struggling with the actual PRICE of everything.

Energy is now feeding another wave of inflation throughout the economy. The disruption caused by the conflict involving Iran has pushed fuel costs higher, and that expense does not remain confined to the gasoline pump. Diesel moves the trucks that deliver food, supplies the agricultural industry, and supports construction and manufacturing. When transportation becomes more expensive, those costs eventually work their way into everything from groceries to building materials. The Fed cannot manufacture oil, reopen shipping routes, or resolve geopolitical conflicts by raising interest rates another 25 basis points.

Meanwhile, the labor market is showing signs of weakness. September payroll growth was only 29,000, and unemployment stood at 4.2%. The economy is producing insufficient employment growth to give workers confidence that they can simply demand higher wages to offset these rising costs. This is the squeeze that conventional economic theory continually fails to address. Consumers face higher prices while employment conditions weaken, and raising interest rates to combat inflation can make financing even more expensive for businesses already struggling with energy and operating costs.

Washington is also the largest borrower in the economy, yet nobody seriously expects Congress to stop spending. The federal government continues accumulating debt, paying more to service that debt, and competing with the private sector for capital. The Federal Reserve can influence short-term rates, but it cannot control government deficits, international capital flows, energy supplies, or the willingness of businesses and consumers to spend. The academics continue pretending that inflation is something they can fine-tune through monetary policy while ignoring the fiscal and geopolitical forces driving the economy.

The September report is particularly troubling because inflation is accelerating at a time when the Fed has already reversed its previous easing policy. The bond market is watching these numbers because investors must consider whether the yield on government debt adequately compensates them for inflation. Washington wants lower borrowing costs, but global capital has no obligation to finance the government at artificially low rates simply because politicians have accumulated debts they cannot afford to service.

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