Saudi Arabia approached the Houthis to determine what it would take to negotiate an end to the fighting. The answer was $51 billion, supposedly compensation for years of Saudi military operations and the blockade of Yemen. Other figures have reportedly been discussed, but the Houthis are demanding tens of billions of dollars and recognition of their authority over Yemen. This would require Riyadh to abandon the internationally recognized Yemeni government it has supported for more than a decade. The Houthis are effectively demanding that Saudi Arabia pay an enormous sum and accept an Iranian-backed adversary along its southern border.
Saudi Arabia launched its military intervention in Yemen in 2015, believing its superior military capabilities and financial resources would defeat the Houthis. More than eleven years later, the Houthis are demanding payment from the Saudis to stop fighting. They have expanded their territorial control, threatened shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and demonstrated the ability to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, airports, and pipelines. Riyadh has spent billions purchasing advanced Western weapons, yet relatively inexpensive missiles and drones continue threatening assets worth billions of dollars.
The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to threaten Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure. Attacks earlier this year temporarily disrupted the kingdom’s East-West pipeline, which carries oil from the eastern production regions toward Red Sea export facilities. That pipeline is particularly important because it allows Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz when Persian Gulf shipping becomes dangerous. With Iran threatening Hormuz and the Houthis operating near Bab al-Mandab, Saudi Arabia faces pressure on both of its major maritime export routes. The kingdom’s geographical position, which once made it an indispensable energy supplier, has become a source of vulnerability.
The United States has also demonstrated the limits of its security guarantees. In September, Mohammed bin Salman reportedly asked President Trump for military assistance against the Houthis. Washington declined to conduct direct strikes on the group’s behalf, although it offered intelligence and targeting support. Saudi Arabia has spent decades maintaining a strategic relationship with the United States based largely upon energy security and military cooperation. Now Riyadh is discovering that an American security partnership does not guarantee American intervention whenever Saudi interests are threatened. Washington is already deeply involved in the conflict with Iran and has little appetite for opening another major military front.
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