Author: HP McLovincraft

The legacy press has an entire vocabulary for election fraud, and every word in it carries the same instruction: Stop looking. “U.S. News and World Report and PBS: “extremely rare.” Time magazine: “very, very rare.” NPR quoted an expert who called it “infinitesimally rare.” It has become a reflex, appended to any mention of election integrity, the way a surgeon general’s warning is appended to a pack of cigarettes, that election fraud is rare, rare, rare. The implication is that “rare” means “irrelevant.” But does it?

Since When Is Rarity the Standard?

Every ballot cast by an ineligible voter cancels out the ballot of an eligible one. A noncitizen who votes does not merely add a vote to one side of the ledger — he subtracts one from a citizen who did everything right. Every fraudulent vote cast invalidates the vote of an eligible voter, effectively disenfranchising that person.

So how many disenfranchised citizens is the acceptable number? One hundred? A thousand? We do not apply this reasoning anywhere else in election law. Nobody argues that ballot-box stuffing is tolerable at low volume, or that a poll worker who alters a few dozen returns should be waved off because the total is statistically small. We do not tell a mugging victim that street crime is rare.

More to the point: Rarity is irrelevant to the margin. Recent congressional races have been decided by a few hundred votes. Virginia’s House of Delegates control came down to a tied district settled by drawing a name from a bowl. In races like these, “infinitesimally rare” fraud is more than sufficient to determine who governs.

Is the Problem Even Being Measured?

The Heritage Foundation maintains an Election Fraud Database documenting proven instances of election fraud — cases in which a prosecutor thought the conduct serious enough to act on, and which ended in a conviction, a civil penalty, a judicial finding, or an overturned election. As of this writing, the database contains 1,619 such cases.

The database does not include potential fraud that election officials discover but that is never investigated or prosecuted — and it obviously cannot include fraud that goes undetected in the first place.

This is the circularity at the heart of the “fraud is rare” consensus. The statistic measures prosecutions. It is then offered as proof about incidence. But you cannot establish the rate of a crime by counting convictions when the relevant authorities decline to prosecute — and you certainly cannot do it when the system is designed so that the crime is rarely discovered at all.

Fairfax County Is the Proof

Consider Fairfax County, Virginia’s largest jurisdiction, in the shadow of the nation’s capital.

In September 2024, Fairfax County’s electoral board adopted a policy requiring the general registrar to refer individuals identified by the Virginia Department of Elections as potential noncitizens to the commonwealth’s attorney and the attorney general. The referrals went out month after month. In a single batch on Oct. 6, 2025, the registrar referred 71 individuals. An earlier batch that summer sent 78 names forward. Over roughly a year and a half of monthly referrals, the cumulative total ran well into the hundreds.

Yet on Feb. 19, 2026, the board voted to rescind the policy. The stated reason, according to the meeting minutes, was that the policy had not led to a single prosecution, that compliance consumed “significant” staff time at the elections office, the commonwealth’s attorney, and the attorney general’s office, and that no prosecutor would find that checking a box on a DMV form met the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard.

Read that again. Hundreds of referrals. Zero prosecutions. Policy abandoned as too burdensome.

And here is the part that matters for the statistic: Because none of those cases were prosecuted, not one of them will ever appear in the Heritage database — or in any of the academic tallies that journalists cite when they write that noncitizen voting is infinitesimally rare. The cases were found. They were referred. They were dropped. And their disappearance from the record is then cited as evidence that there was nothing there.

The context is worse than the referral numbers suggest. Fairfax County canceled 985 registrations on citizenship grounds between January 2022 and July 2024 alone; county Republicans count 1,912 cancellations over four years, including 538 in 2025 — more than one per day. Virginia removed 6,303 statewide between January 2022 and July 2024.

Crucially, Virginia does not verify citizenship at registration. It cannot; federal law forbids requiring documentary proof on the federal form. So these registrations surfaced only when the registrants disclosed their own status — typically on a jury questionnaire or a DMV transaction. Nobody went looking. The system caught only the people who raised their hands.

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