‘Gun Death’ Rate Leaves The Trace at a Loss for Reasons Why

So-called gun violence is always going to be a major talking point, even though it’s down across the board. This is obviously good news, and I think we all have a good idea why that is.

While I can’t prove that it was because of the Bruen decision, the drop disproves a lot of anti-gun talking points, and while I’d put money on the decision being the reason for that drop, intellectual honesty precludes me from declaring it outright.

That’s because, as we all know, correlation doesn’t equal causation.

Again, though, we’ve got a pretty good idea. For folks at The Trace, this is apparently some kind of mystery.

On its own, the third quarter recorded 3,301 shooting deaths, the lowest figure in over a decade of GVA data for the three-month stretch.

Why are we seeing this decline? A recent report from the Council on Criminal Justice surveyed four dozen scholars on the crime decline in recent years. It found no single cause, but broad agreement that a range of factors — including the end of the pandemic, community violence intervention work, and focused deterrence from law enforcement and social services — each played a role.

There are important caveats with the shooting data. GVA does not capture every shooting. It can enter or update data on shootings weeks or months after they happen. (These numbers were pulled from GVA on October 13.) It also does not track gun suicides, which represent two-thirds of all shooting deaths. Still, GVA maintains the most complete, timely information available.

The limitations they mention are very real, because GVA just uses news reports. However, that fact is part of why it’s not a complete, timely source of information.

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Tracey Wilson: Liberal ‘fear porn’ about a U.S. invasion is a fantasy while Ottawa disarms its own gun owners

On Tuesday’s episode of The Ezra Levant Show, Tracey Wilson of the Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights (CCFR) joined Ezra via Zoom to react to a Globe and Mail opinion piece urging Canadians to “think about nonviolent resistance” in the event of a hypothetical American invasion.

Ezra said the piece, written by Richard Sandbrook, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Toronto and vice president of Science for Peace, treats an invasion as a real possibility. He called it “fantasy on top of fantasy on top of fantasy.” He also pointed out that Prime Minister Mark Carney was the one who started talking about the Canadian Armed Forces making plans for such an eventuality, and that Carney told the New York Times before he told Canadians.

Tracey did not mince words. “It’s pure liberal boomer fear porn. That’s what it is. And it’s actually embarrassing,” she said.

Tracey pointed to a National Post piece in which retired Vice Admiral Mark Norman said the Canadian Armed Forces have basically been left to rot. “And he’s not overstating that,” she said, adding that suggesting Canada could defend itself against an American invasion “is ridiculous. Thankfully, that is not going to happen.”

She said Carney began his campaign with “a lot of fear porn about the Americans and an invasion,” encouraging Canadians to hate their neighbours to the south despite a long friendship and partnership. “It’s unhelpful. It’s unhealthy. Trump won’t be there forever,” she said. “And at some point, he’s going to have to stand on his own two legs and tell us why he’s created this kind of division in this country.”

Ezra also read the Globe and Mail’s own description of nonviolent defence as “a strategy of deterrence and resistance in which unarmed civilians play a major role, either alone or in coordination with the armed forces.” He noted that the article never actually explains what that would look like in practice.

For Tracey, the contradiction is the point. “This is the same government that is spending billions of your tax dollars confiscating legally acquired firearms from licensed, vetted, RCMP-tested and trained gun owners and not investing that money in our military,” she said. “You can’t disarm your population. And at the same time, you use fear porn about an American invasion that is literally a fantasy in the minds of the liberal talking heads in Ottawa.”

Ezra and Tracey also discussed the state of the military. Ezra said Canada’s forces are underfunded, under-equipped, demoralized and underpaid, and that the aging CF-18s would be like “a Datsun driving alongside a Ferrari” next to an F-35. He said Canada’s participation in the Maple Flag exercise in northern Alberta has been cancelled.

The conversation then turned to the attempted attack on a synagogue in Belleville, Ontario, on Yom Kippur. Ezra said the gunman, Sean Ward, turned out to be a Canadian military veteran who arrived with enough guns and ammunition to kill everyone inside, and that a police officer outside was wounded in a shootout but stopped what could have been a massacre. Ezra cited a Globe and Mail headline reporting that the shooter did not have a gun licence.

Tracey said that detail proves the Liberal approach is aimed at the wrong people. “He completely evaded any detection because he just simply didn’t go get a firearms license. He acquired his guns illegally, like many other madmen in our country,” she said. She added that none of the measures brought in since 2015 would have stopped that crime, and gave credit to law enforcement for saving lives that day. “It just goes to show we are 100% focusing on the wrong people.”

She said the Liberals’ 11-year record on public safety has been “a tragic and bloody failure,” and that it will continue until Carney changes course. She also tied the issue to the 2020 Nova Scotia mass shooting, which she said was the catalyst for the Trudeau-era gun bans even though the killer worked completely outside the licensing system.

Ezra brought up U.S. scholar Dr. John Lott, author of More Guns, Less Crime, who argues from a purely pragmatic standpoint that mass shooters are generally only stopped when someone with a firearm arrives. Ezra said that is why he sees an argument for private firearms ownership, noting that in Israel and the United States armed bystanders have stopped attackers before police arrived.

Tracey agreed, pointing to chat records that came out last week involving the Tumbler Ridge shooter. She said the killer indicated that the only things he worried might stop him were law enforcement or someone else with a firearm. “You can live in a unicorn and rainbow world where you say, no guns, never,” she said. “You can’t put that genie back in the bottle.”

“It’s my opinion that the best thing we can do is give people the means, the opportunity and the training to protect themselves and those that they care about,” Tracey concluded.

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Democrats Continue to Attack the Second Amendment Even After Heroic Good Guy with a Gun Ends Bend Elementary School Shooting That Killed Three Children and a Teacher

A 16-year-old opened fire Thursday at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend, Oregon, killing three children and a teacher before an armed bystander followed him inside and shot him dead.

The brave “good guy with a gun” was reportedly the father of a student at the school.

Democrats in Congress responded by calling for gun control.

The attacker used a pump-action shotgun his mother had purchased. He first fired at a vehicle in the parking lot around 12:59 p.m., then shot through locked exterior doors to force his way in.

Inside, the shooter killed children ages 5, 8, and 11 and a teacher.

A 7-year-old student and a 54-year-old teacher were critically wounded.

Bend Police Chief Mike Krantz said an armed bystander saw the teen entering with the long gun, pursued him, and engaged him.

The suspect was already dead when officers arrived.

Governor Tina Kotek called the bystander a hero.

The father, obviously, prevented more deaths.

That did not stop the usual response from the left.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren posted that her heart went out to the victims and that “there have been over 50 school shootings just this year. Congress must do much more to prevent gun violence.”

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Justice Department Opens Civil Rights Investigation Into New Jersey Township Over Gun Permit Delays

The Department of Justice unfortunately has no shortage of work when it comes to going after blue state officials suppressing Americans’ Second Amendment rights.

According to a Justice Department news release from Wednesday, the agency has opened an investigation into Pennsauken, New Jersey, to determine whether the process for acquiring a firearms license is unjustifiably lengthy and difficult.

The focus is on the Pennsauken Township Police’s permitting system.

The DOJ said the system “deprives citizens of their right to bear arms through egregious and unjust delays in issuing firearm licenses.”

The Daily Caller News Foundation noted some of the specific obstacles of obtaining a permit.

An applicant for concealed carry needs four references, an address history for the last 10 years, and fingerprints.

That’s quite a lot for a right given by God, and recognized by the Constitution, to defend oneself.

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Washington to Charge Residents $126 Just to Shop for a Gun

Beginning May 1, 2027, Washington state residents will have to pay $126 to acquire a state-issued permit-to-purchase that allows them to buy a gun.

Radio host Jason Rantz noted that the permit-to-purchase will be issued by the Washington State Patrol (WSP).

Ammoland received confirmation from WSP that the overall fee will be $126. That fee consists of “$90 for the permit and $36 for the fingerprint background check.”

Rantz pointed out that there are other costs involved, too. Namely, the cost for training and ammunition for a “state-certified safety course” that permit-to-purchase applicants must pass in order to receive their permit.

He said, “Course fees, ammunition, range time and travel all come out of the buyer’s pocket on top of the $126.”

Mike Bloomberg-affiliated Everytown for Gun Safety ranks Washington the No. 9 state in the Union for gun control stringency.

Washington has universal background checks for handgun purchases, a ten-day waiting period on gun sales, a concealed carry permit requirement, a red flag law, gun storage laws, an “assault weapons” ban, a “high-capacity” magazine ban, a bump stock ban, a registry of all handgun sales, “ghost gun” regulations, a ban on K-12 teachers being armed for classroom defense, and so much more.

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HILARIOUS: Gun Control Group Tries to Make a Point on Twitter/X About American Gun Ownership and Gets RATIOED INTO THE SUN by Other Users

As we all know, the left never stops pushing for greater gun control. It doesn’t matter how bad crime gets, they never give up the issue.

Every year, there are examples of law abiding people using guns to defend themselves and their fellow Americans but the gun-grabbing left just doesn’t care.

The gun control group ‘March for Our Lives’ recently posted a fun fact on Twitter/X and thought they were being clever and making an anti-gun point.

Other Twitter/X users flipped the script and their responses are great.

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Somali Mayor of City in Minnesota Wants to Solve Problem of Somali Gang Violence by Banning Guns

Nadia Mohamed is the Somali mayor of the city of St. Louis Park in Minnesota. In a recent video, which you can view below, she suggests that the way to end Somali gang violence is to ban guns outright.

Is she familiar with the United States Constitution?

You will notice that she spends the first part of the video trying to equivocate and gloss over who is committing these violent crimes by saying crime is crime and it doesn’t really matter who is doing it.

The Daily Wire has details:

St. Louis Park, Minnesota, Mayor Nadia Mohamed, the first Somali elected mayor in the United States, called for a gun ban after a shooting linked to Somali gangs forced a high school to cancel its homecoming dance.

Minnesota’s Eden Prairie High School, which is just southwest of St. Louis Park, canceled its homecoming dance after a shooting that authorities believe involved Somali gangs left two people injured outside the school’s football stadium Friday night.

“We can definitely talk about this issue without making it a Somali issue,” Mohamed said. “Without making it all about Somalis, and how Somali gangs, and Somali this, and Somali that. … The rhetoric that you are pushing at best is irresponsible, at worst is dangerous.”

“You may be wondering, ‘Hey mayor, how can we solve for this?’ … The answer is easy, ban guns,” she added.

Mohammad’s policy suggestion is what she is hoping other people begin to do. “To pick on a community that is already revealing from anti-Somali rhetoric is low-hanging fruit,” she said. “Let’s talk about policy.”

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Ottawa’s $742-million gun grab falls flat as just 41% of targeted firearms declared

Owners declared just 68,793 of an estimated 166,555 individually held firearms targeted by Ottawa’s prohibition and compensation program, roughly 41%, according to a government response tabled in Parliament.

Declarations do not equal surrenders. 

Blacklock’s Reporter reported the figures were provided in response to questions from Conservative MP Bob Zimmer about participation in the Assault Style Firearms Compensation Program.

Yet the government has acknowledged that the phrase used to brand its program has no legal definition.

“There is no legal definition of an assault-style firearm,” Public Safety Canada stated in its response to order paper question Q-1375. Instead, firearms are legally classified under criteria in the Criminal Code.

The participation figures reflect declarations of intent, rather than confirmed collections or destruction. Of the declared firearms, 67,512 were designated for destruction and compensation, while 1,281 were slated for deactivation with a payment toward the expense.

Including business inventories, Ottawa estimated approximately 180,000 firearms were affected before the program began.

The $742 million “buyback” follows federal prohibitions introduced in 2020. Those regulations face a Supreme Court challenge brought by the Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights and other applicants.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear the challenge on March 19. The amnesty has been extended pending judgment, pushing the collection timetable into 2027 at the earliest.

Ottawa’s own research has also documented resistance. 

A 2023 Public Safety study found firearm owners questioned the program’s cost and effectiveness because it did not target illegal gun smuggling and sales.

The result: hundreds of millions budgeted, repeated delays and declarations covering fewer than half the estimated individually held firearms, under a program branded with a term Ottawa admits has no legal definition.

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Protection Orders, Gun Training, And 3D Printing Laws Among Gun Bills Signed By California Governor

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a package of 10 gun bills into law that he says will enhance what he considers to be the state’s already exemplary record of firearms safety.

Newsom’s office announced the signing in a press release on Monday. According to the release, the laws are meant to reduce violent crime involving guns and reduce the number of illegal guns on the street, among other things.

They include a training requirement for the purchase of a gun, expanding criteria for the state’s extreme risk protection orders, voluntary firearms storage by law enforcement to prevent violent crime and suicide, and a requirement for firearms blocking technology on 3D printers in the state by July 1, 2029.

“California has been a leader in gun safety. Today’s laws continue that work – using data, prevention, and proven tools to help keep firearms out of dangerous situations and support communities affected by violence,” Newsom stated in the press release.

Senate Bill 948 will make a training requirement necessary for acquiring a state firearms safety certificate for the purchase of a gun. Existing law requires the certificate for the purchase, transfer, or importation of guns within the state within 60 days of the transaction.

The new law adds a requirement for a four-hour training course that must cover firearm handling and safety as well as a live-fire component. The law becomes effective Jan. 1, 2029.

The press release also touted the state’s Gun Violence Restraining Orders (GVRO), crediting them with preventing 58 mass shootings and reducing violent crime overall.

Assembly Bill 175 expands this by allowing courts to issue extreme risk protection orders even if the subject of the order has not been notified. It also prohibits courts from requiring petitioners to show that exceptional circumstances exist that make the order necessary.

Thousands of GVROs have been issued since the first laws were implemented in 2016, the press release states.

“Between 2021 and 2024, the number of longer-term GVROs issued each year in California more than doubled. In 2024 alone, California courts issued GVROs against 1,727 individuals found to pose a significant danger of firearm violence toward themselves or others,” the release states.

Newsom also signed a law meant to prevent suicides by providing temporary gun storage for those who are in crisis.

Assembly Bill 1974 allows law enforcement agencies to establish programs to take temporary possession of firearms from those who request such. The law requires the agency to provide clear instructions on voluntarily transferring custody of a firearm and instructions on requesting its return.

It also requires the agency to ensure the person is not prohibited from owning a firearm. The agency must also ensure the firearm has not been reported lost or stolen, used in a crime, or part of an active investigation. Guns that are not picked up by their owners will be destroyed.

The law also exempts the agencies and gun owners from certain requirements for concealed carry and transfer of firearms.

Assembly Bill 2047 is meant to hamper the production of homemade guns that do not have serial numbers or other identifying marks. The law sets a deadline of July 1, 2029, for any 3D printer sold in the state to have firearms blocking technology.

This technology would prevent the user from 3D printing so-called “ghost guns.” These guns are most often frames of synthetic materials produced on a 3D printer with metal parts purchased separately. The fact that the homemade guns have no serial numbers makes it difficult to trace them back to their source.

The press release states that the number of unserialized guns has been on the decline in recent years.

“Seventeen percent fewer ghost guns [were] recovered as crime guns in 2025, bringing the decline since 2021 to 37 percent,” the release reads.

Gun rights advocates decried the package of gun laws, saying they are about gun control more than gun safety.

Adam Kraut, executive director of the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF), was especially critical of the training requirement, which he considers an obstacle to legal gun ownership.

“It comes after California has already passed an 11 percent excise tax on guns and ammo, and carry permits cost anywhere between $500 and $2,500 in the state, depending on the county. SAF is currently litigating against both of those abuses and will consider a lawsuit against SB 948 as its effective date in 2029 approaches,” Kraut stated in an email to The Epoch Times.

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Liberals admit ‘assault-style firearm’ has no legal definition as RCMP says it doesn’t track crimes involving them

The federal government has acknowledged there is no legal definition of an “assault-style firearm,” while the RCMP says it does not specifically track crimes committed with the very category of firearms Ottawa has spent years prohibiting and buying back.

The admissions came in a September 21 response to order paper question Q-1375, submitted by Conservative MP Alex Ruff of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound.

Asked directly for the government’s definition of an assault-style firearm, Public Safety Canada responded: “There is no legal definition of an assault-style firearm.”

Instead, the department said firearms are legally classified according to criteria contained in Section 84(1) of the Criminal Code. It said firearms prohibited through the May 2020, December 2024 and March 2025 measures share technical characteristics that led the government to deem them unsuitable for civilian use.

The response becomes more striking when Ruff asks for data showing how frequently these so-called assault-style firearms actually appear in crime.

The RCMP said it “does not collect data specifically regarding gun crimes for assault-style firearms.”

Nor could the force say how many firearms it traced between 2021 and 2025 fell into the government’s assault-style category. The RCMP said that information is not tracked in its existing database and would require a manual review.

That leaves Ottawa unable to provide a basic crime statistic for a category at the centre of its Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program.

The tracing data the RCMP does collect shows a sharp increase in firearms suspected of having been illegally imported.

In 2025, the Canadian National Firearms Tracing Centre conducted 1,464 crime-related traces involving firearms reasonably suspected of being illegally imported, up from 487 in 2024, 271 in 2023, 572 in 2022 and just 66 in 2021.

By comparison, 326 crime-related traces in 2025 involved firearms identified as manufactured in Canada.

The RCMP completed 3,011 traces in 2025 involving firearms used or suspected of being used in crimes. That means suspected illegal imports accounted for a substantial share of the crime-related traces reported that year.

The government’s own data also has significant gaps. The RCMP only began collecting information about stolen firearms in 2023 and does not collect information about lost firearms through the tracing centre.

And while Ottawa has prohibited hundreds of firearm makes and models under measures explicitly described as targeting “assault-style firearms,” the RCMP told Parliament it cannot provide the number of traces involving those firearms by reference number, make or model because it does not specifically collect an assault-style designation.

Ottawa’s compensation program is nevertheless explicitly called the Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program, relying on a definition that doesn’t exist.

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