Tag: polls

21-Year-Old Was Behind Fake Polling Firm Median Strategies

Twenty-one-year-old Rahil Prakash is the person who published a number of fake polls that entered the media ecosystem.

He says that he was inspired to create his phony polls after Michigan primary polls totally blew the Democrat race between Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, aka Abdul El-Sayed, and Haley Stevens. El-Sayed barely squeaked out a win when poll after poll showed him up by double digits.

“I wanted to see if fake polls could really penetrate the ecosystem that easily,” he told the far-left Guardian. “And as it turned out, it could.”

Prakash created a website called Median Strategies and released bogus polls for the Democrat primary in the Wisconsin governor’s race, the Los Angeles mayoral race, and two statewide Nevada races.

“Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, touted Median polling data after it appeared to put her ahead of her election challenger by more than 10 percentage points,” the Guardian adds. “The poll was also cited by the California Post. A widely followed polling aggregator on X also shared the group’s Nevada poll[.]”

“[S]everal credible polling organizations did not aggregate Median polling because they could not verify its methodology.”

“Did I expect it to perhaps expedite in the way it did? Most definitely not. I did not expect the California political press to pick it up on their own,” said Prakash. “I’ll apologize straight out to the campaigns of Karen Bass, Nithya Raman and Francesca Hong for this,” the Guardian reported.

The fake Median poll put Francesca Hong up by 20 points. She lost by 0.5 points.

What’s so funny about this is that Median’s bogus poll was not the worst. Marquette, a so-called “legitimate” pollster, had Hong ahead by 22. PPP had her up by 18.

At least Median admits its polling is bogus. Fox News, Quinnipiac, and a number of others are equally bogus, as far as I can tell, but continue to be treated seriously. The whole field of polling is a joke.

Median snuck into the ecosystem because nobody really cares if polls are accurate; we all know they are not, so who cares? Had I seen the Median polls, I would have thought nothing of firing them off on social media. Polling no longer matters. It’s just content now, and anyone who takes polling seriously is a dumbass.

Polling is all about shaping public opinion, not reflecting it; it’s all about manipulating public opinion, not measuring it.

This guy did us a favor. He further damaged the credibility of polling and of the media. That’s a wonderful thing as far as I’m concerned.

Fake polls. Media polls. Potato-potahhhtow.

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‘Flashing Red Warning Sign’ for Lawmakers: Poll Shows Voters Reject US-Israel Military Integration

A new poll of US voters published on Tuesday offers a warning for congressional lawmakers backing a plan to deepen military ties between the United States and Israel, finding that a clear majority of voters oppose the proposal – which some critics have called “treasonous.”

The Data for Progress survey of 1,217 likely US voters – conducted August 3–7 for Demand Progress and the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project – revealed that 61% of respondents oppose legislation in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2027 that would integrate Israeli weapons companies into the Pentagon at a level exceeding that of any other country. That figure rose to 78% among Democrats and 73% among independents.

“This poll is a flashing red warning sign for any member of Congress who supports the defense authorization bill,” Demand Progress senior policy adviser Cavan Kharrazian said in a statement. “A clear majority of voters do not support further integrating the Israeli military and Israeli military companies into the Pentagon, which the NDAA is set to do.”

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted last month 216-212, mostly along party lines, in favor of a record $1.15 trillion NDAA. The military spending bill contains Section 219, a provision that would create a US–Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative, accelerating joint defense research, development, testing, and integration of technologies including artificial intelligence, missile defense, and counter-drone systems.

Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) submitted an amendment to strip Section 219 from the NDAA. The measure failed to pass.

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), who voted against the NDAA, described Section 219 as “an outrageous threat to our country’s security and autonomy.”

The Senate version of the military spending authorization bill has a related provision – Section 1217, the United States-Israel FUTURES Act – and the two chambers will need to reconcile their NDAA legislation before the final language is decided. Reconciliation is not expected to occur before November at the earliest.

“It’s time for Congress to listen to the American people for once, and not the same voices who always want to cut Israel a blank check,” Kharrazian said. That “blank check” has totaled more than $174 billion in non-inflation-adjusted aid since the modern state of Israel was founded in 1948.

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Polling Firm Showing Karen Bass, Francesca Hong in Lead Admits Fake Polls: ‘Short-Term Social Experiment’

A fake polling firm projecting Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Wisconsin Democrat socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong with leads over their opponents admits these were fake polls as part of a “short-term social experiment.”

In a statement posted to the website for Median Strategies, the fake polling firm explained it “has concluded its polling project and will not publish additional polls.”

The statement from Median Strategies goes on to say, “All previously published polling releases have been withdrawn and should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data.”

“Median Strategies was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification,” the statement continued.

The statement from Median Strategies comes as the firm released a fake poll which showed Karen Bass with a 12-point lead over her opponent Nithya Raman prior to the Los Angeles mayoral runoff race in November, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Median Strategies explained that the “results were based on a survey of 560 Los Angeles voters between July 30 and Aug. 5. It said it had a 4.1 percent margin of error,” according to the outlet.

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‘Contradictory’ Public Opinions on Iran Are Baked Into CBS’s Polling

A recent CBS News poll (3/17–20/26) declared that a majority of Americans (53%) say it would be “unacceptable” if the United States were to end the conflict with Iran with that country’s current leadership still in power.

Moreover, the poll also found that large majorities of Americans say it is “important” to “make sure Iran’s people are safe and free,” to “permanently stop Iran’s nuclear programs,” and to “stop Iran from threatening other countries.”

These results seem to suggest that most Americans want the war to continue until those goals, including regime change in Iran, are actually achieved.

Much of the rest of the poll, however, suggests the public does not support the war with Iran, even when “conflict” instead of the touchy word “war” is used to describe what’s happening. According to the poll:

  • 60% disapprove of the US taking military action against Iran.
  • 62% disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the situation in Iran.
  • 57% believe the “conflict in Iran” is going “very/somewhat badly.”
  • 51% do not believe it is important to change Iran’s leaders to ones that are pro-US.
  • 92% believe it is important to “end the conflict as quickly as possible.”

The report notes: “If those desires between goals and a fast end seem contradictory, it connects to the continued call for more explanation from the administration.”

The poll did ask if the Trump administration had clearly explained its goals, and only 32% said it had; 68% said no.

But that is not evidence of the public’s “continued call for more explanation.” There is nothing in the poll that suggests the public is demanding more information, and in the absence thereof, the public exhibits contradictions between its preferred goals and a quick end to the war. The explanation is a non sequitur.

One reason for the contradictions is that the poll asks each question as though it were free from any context. Respondents are not asked to evaluate each goal in light of possible cost. If, for example, regime change is a goal of the war, how long should the US continue to press for that change, given the likely cost in money and lives?

The poll lists several goals, and each one might seem pretty appealing—assuming it could be reached. Respondents hear a goal and say, sure, it’s important, without having to confront the inevitable trade-offs. Reporting such responses as though the public is actually demanding the US pay the costs to achieve regime change, or to make the Iranian people free and safe, is a wild distortion of what the poll has actually measured.

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Poll: 62% of Americans Say They Have Political Views They’re Afraid to Share

Anew Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. The share of Americans who self‐​censor has risen several points since 2017 when 58% of Americans agreed with this statement.

These fears cross partisan lines. Majorities of Democrats (52%), independents (59%) and Republicans (77%) all agree they have political opinions they are afraid to share.

Liberals Are Divided on Political Expression

Strong liberals stand out, however, as the only political group who feel they can express themselves. Nearly 6 in 10 (58%) of staunch liberals feel they can say what they believe. However, centrist liberals feel differently. A slim majority (52%) of liberals feel they have to self‐​censor, as do 64% of moderates, and 77% of conservatives. This demonstrates that political expression is an issue that divides the Democratic coalition between centrist Democrats and their left flank.

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