Tag: oil

Trump Punishes India with 50 Percent Tariffs for Buying Russian Oil

President Donald Trump imposed a crushing 50% tariff on Indian goods to punish the country for buying Russian oil, upending a decades-long push by Washington to forge closer ties with New Delhi.

The new tariffs, the highest in Asia, took effect at 12:01 a.m. in Washington on Wednesday, doubling the existing 25% duty on Indian exports. The levies will hit more than 55% of goods shipped to the US — India’s biggest market — and hurt labor-intensive industries like textiles and jewelry the most. Key exports like electronics and pharmaceuticals are exempt, sparing Apple Inc.’s massive new factory investments in India for now.

“This is going to be a very big impact on Indian exporters because 50% tariffs are not workable for the clients,” said Israr Ahmed, managing director of Farida Shoes Pvt. Ltd., which depends on the US for 60% of its business. 

New Delhi has argued the purchases stabilize energy markets, and has said it will keep buying Russian oil “depending on the financial benefit.”

China, Russia Ties

The fraying relationship has pushed India to edge away from the US and forge deeper ties with fellow members of the BRICS bloc.

At the same time, India and Russia have pledged to increase their annual trade by 50% to $100 billion over the next five years. India has ramped up oil imports from Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, and now accounts for about 37% of Russia’s oil exports, according to Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting.

Citigroup Inc. estimates that the combined 50% tariff poses a 0.6-0.8 percentage point downside risk to annual gross domestic product growth.

The economic impact may be cushioned by the fact that India’s economy is largely driven by domestic demand, rather than exports, so shoring up consumer and business sentiment is key to faster growth. Private consumption makes up about 60% of India’s GDP — and although the US is India’s biggest export market, with shipments of $87.4 billion in 2024, that still amounts to only 2% of India’s total GDP.

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The Power Of Siberia 2 Pipeline Deal Signifies The Failure Of Trump’s Eurasian Grand Strategy

Trump’s escalatory signals in Ukraine, the Indo-US split that he induced, and the attendant alleviation of the Sino-Indo security dilemma freed Russia up to clinch the long-negotiated Power of Siberia 2 deal…

Trump’s Eurasian grand strategy has sought to preemptively avert Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China in order to avoid having its natural resources turbocharge the superpower trajectory of the US’ only systemic rival. In pursuit of this, the US envisaged entering into a resource-centric strategic partnership with Russia upon the end of the Ukrainian Conflict, expecting that this shared goal would incentivize Putin into agreeing to significant territorial and/or security concessions.

Trump’s unwillingness or inability to coerce Zelensky into any of Putin’s demanded concessions paired with increasingly concerning reports about plans to deploy NATO to Ukraine to spook Putin into ditching his balancing act and pivoting to China. The successful clinching of their long-negotiated deal over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which will nearly double Russia’s gas exports to China to ~100 bcm a year and at a cheaper price than the EU receives, signifies the failure of Trump’s Eurasian grand strategy.

Putin might have held out for longer had Trump not inadvertently catalyzed the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement via his hypocritically punitive tariffs that aim to derail India’s rise as a Great Power. That spooked India into patching up its ties with China, which alleviated their security dilemma that the US was exploiting to divide-and-rule them. This in turn reduced India’s worries about closer Russian-Chinese energy cooperation that it previously feared could lead to Russia becoming China’s junior partner.

It was never officially voiced, but astute observers and those who’ve talked to Indian thinkers know that India was worried that China might leverage its influence over Russia to get it to curtail or cut off military exports to India, therefore giving China a pivotal edge in their border dispute. The Trump-induced Indo-US split and attendant alleviation of the Sino-Indo security dilemma freed Russia up to clinch the Power of Siberia 2 deal without fear of spooking India into the US’ arms and thus dividing-and-ruling Eurasia.

The growing convergence between BRICS and the SCO, which aim to gradually reform global governance via their complementary efforts to accelerate multipolar processes, is due in no small part to India’s embrace of both in response to new strategic threats from the US. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China in seven years to attend the SCO Leaders’ Summit, during which time he held an important bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping, is expected to lead to a new normal in Sino-Indo ties.

The roots of their tensions haven’t been resolved, but Russia expects that they’ll now be better managed, ergo why it clinched its deal with China over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline right after also concluding that the US won’t try to help it obtain any of what it wants from Ukraine. To review, Trump signaled escalatory intent in Ukraine reportedly as the quid pro quo for the US-EU trade deal and then Sino-Indo ties improved as Indo-US ones worsened, thus making Power of Siberia 2 politically possible.

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Why The IEA Reinstated Its “Business As Usual” Scenario

  • The IEA has reversed course by reintroducing the “Current Policies Scenario” in its flagship World Energy Outlook, marking a significant policy shift.
  • The debate highlights the inherent subjectivity of data in energy modeling and the political stakes tied to forecasting fossil fuel demand.
  • U.S. political leaders and fossil fuel advocates pressured the IEA, arguing that its previous modeling discouraged oil and gas investment and threatened energy security.

A great debate is unfolding about the subjectivity of data in producing the energy outlooks that guide public policy and private spending, shaping the future of the global energy sector. The International Energy Agency has been caught in the crossfire of a partisan debate in which environmental and energy industry leaders vehemently disagree about what constitutes accuracy, truth, and good science in data, and particularly in the agency’s flagship World Energy Outlook report. And this year, the fossil fuels industry is getting its way.

It’s easy to forget that data is not objective, nor is it purely subjective. This false dichotomy, according to data expert Melanie Feinberg, “distorts the empirical realities of data collection, the challenging work of forcing unruly phenomena to speak in clean, distinct, ideally quantitative phrases.” Instead, good science is about recognizing the responsibility of being an active decision-maker to produce methods and outputs that most accurately represent complex realities. 

Human-led decisions and difficult choices are being made at every step of developing a report like the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s annual World Energy Outlook – from how to collect and clean the data to how to analyze and report on it.

One of those critical choices is how the agency chooses to construct its projected scenarios for the clean energy transition and the phaseout of fossil fuels. 

The choice that has recently come under scrutiny is whether to include a “Current Policies Scenario” along with the typical scenarios that the agency uses to make its forecasts.

The IEA based its “business as usual” outlooks on current policies until 2019, when the agency decided to switch to a “Stated Policies Scenario,” which it believed to be more accurate.

The difference is that the Stated Policies Scenario assumes certain future policy actions, such as the extension and renewal of policies with end dates.

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Oil tycoon falls to his death from elite Moscow apartment block in latest mystery death to hit Russia

A top Russian oil tycoon has died after mysteriously plunging 180ft from a window at his luxury Moscow home.

The body of Andrey Badalov, 62, was discovered this morning at the bottom of an exclusive high-rise apartment building in Moscow’s affluent Rublevskoye neighbourhood.

Badalov was the vice-president of state-owned oil pipeline monopoly Transneft. 

He reportedly lived on the building’s 10th floor but fell from the 17th storey, according to local media. 

A source said the ‘preliminary cause’ of death is ‘suicide’, as investigators reportedly discovered a note Badalov had left to his wife. 

Badalov had been appointed vice-president for the oil giant in 2021 during a ‘complex and tense period’ and had been credited with helping the company ‘overcome the challenges’ posed by Western sanctions. 

He previously worked at the state-owned Voskhod Scientific Research Institute.

He had also studied at the General Staff Academy of the Armed Forces, which trains high-level officers and state managers.

The tycoon leaves behind a wife and two daughters.

His sudden death is the latest in a spate of unexplained deaths of leading Russian figures under mysterious circumstances. 

In these cases, individuals have died falling from windows, apparent suicides and in accidents. Some have been known to be critics of Vladimir Putin.  

Top Russian oligarch Mikhail Rogachev, 64, was found dead back in October after mysteriously falling from a 110ft window in Moscow.

Rogachev was the vice-president of Russian oil giant Yukos, which was forced out of business for turning against Putin. 

TV channels reported that he lived on the tenth floor and that it was a suicide, claiming he had cancer and left a note.

But these reports were vehemently denied by his close friends and relatives.

His family insisted there were no signs that he was suicidal and he was in a ‘good mood’ shortly before his death.

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“We Are At A Tipping Point”: Shale Giant Diamonback Says US Oil Output Has Peaked, Slashes CapEx Amid OPEC Price War

The OPEC price war has made landfall in the US.

Following our report earlier that Saudi Arabia has declared a new price war on OPEC+ quota-busters such as Kazakhstan, and non OPEC+ members such as US shale producers, today after the close Diamondback Energy, the largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin, made a historic pronouncement today when it said that production has likely peaked in America’s prolific shale fields (something we also mentioned earlier in the day) and will decline in the months and years ahead after crude prices plummeted.

Separately, the Texas company trimmed its own full-year production forecast Monday, and said that it expects onshore oil rigs across the entire US industry to drop by almost 10% by the end of the second quarter and fall further in the months after.

“This will have a meaningful impact on our industry and our country,” Diamondback Chief Executive Officer Travis Stice wrote. “We believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production.”

The outlook from Diamondback, one of the industry’s most prominent producers, marks a key shift for expectations within the sector. Before oil prices started plunging last month, most banks and research firms had forecast US shale production would grow this year and next before plateauing later in the decade. The Permian, they said, was apt to peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s depending on prices.

Not any more.

As Bloomberg notes, the US shale fields have been the engine behind the surge in US crude output over the past 15 years, making the country the world’s top producer and largely energy independent, much to the horror of OPEC. The ability of companies like Diamondback to quickly bring new wells online using hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, has bedeviled OPEC. But the prospect that shale may now have reached its peak and is facing years of painful decline, poses a huge threat to US President Donald Trump’s goal to turbocharge fossil fuel production.

While analysts and pundits have long said repeatedly that US shale is poised to peak, the industry had managed to prove them wrong by innovating and driving output to fresh records year after year. 

So the assertion by Diamondback that the moment has finally come is extremely noteworthy.

“Today, geologic headwinds outweigh the tailwinds provided by improvements in technology and operational efficiency,” said Stice, who will step down as CEO at the company’s annual shareholder meeting later this month.

US oil futures, pricing in a global demand recession, have dropped about 20% since the start of April when Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs that triggered a global trade war. At the same time, OPEC and its allies have surprised markets with plans to increase oil supplies more than expected later this year in response to internal bickering, and particularly the unwillingness of some members such as Kazakhstan to comply with set production quotas.

It’s led to frustration spilling out both privately and in public comments from America’s oil bosses. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to reassure the industry during a visit to Oklahoma last month, saying turmoil from the president’s trade war is likely to be fleeting.

“We can’t help but wonder if the last ‘letter to stockholders’ written by outgoing CEO Travis Stice was intended as much for government leaders in Washington, DC as it was for FANG shareholders,” Tim Rezvan, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets wrote in a note to clients.

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US Considers Plan To Disrupt Iran’s Oil With Navy Interventions On High Seas

The Trump White House is currently considering a plan that would take the recently reinstated ‘maximum pressure’ campaign back to the high seas, akin to Trump’s first term as Commander-in-Chief.

This would involve US Navy ships stopping and inspecting Iranian oil vessels transiting the sea under an international mechanism aimed at thwarting “spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs),” sources in Reuters said. This had been done at times under Biden as well.

The idea is to crack down once again on Iranian oil sales in order to cut off crucial funding for Iran’s nuclear energy program, which both Israel and Washington suspect could easily be converted to an atomic weapons program.

“Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes. That would delay delivery of crude to refiners. It could also expose parties involved in facilitating the trade to reputational damage and sanctions,” the sources told Reuters. 

“You don’t have to sink ships or arrest people to have that chilling effect that this is just not worth the risk. The delay in delivery… instills uncertainty in that illicit trade network,” one source clarified. 

The legal mechanism reportedly being examined goes all the way back the ‘war on terror’ 2003 Proliferation Security Initiative, which seeks to prevent the trafficking of WMDs. (Nevermind that the Bush-era ‘Iraqi WMDs’ scare was based on a complete myth and lie advanced by the NeoCons at the time).

“This mechanism could enable foreign governments to target Iran’s oil shipments at Washington’s request,” another source told Reuters.

The Biden administration had at times also sought to seize Iranian oil shipments, especially to disrupt sales in places like China, or also Syria.

As for the Syria situation, this policy helped tighten the noose around Assad in Western regime change efforts which led to his ouster – but the Syrian people continue to starve and be largely without fuel.

The US Treasury Department has frequently alleged that the Islamic Republic maintains a “shadow fleet” which sends Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars abroad. Tehran in response has argued it is fully its right to sell its energy resources utilizing international waters and passage.

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Harris -Walz are oblivious that the U.S. economy CAN NOT exist without crude oil.

“Renewables” such as wind turbines and solar panels ONLY exist to generate occasional electricity under favorable weather conditions, as they CANNOT make tires, toilet paper, iPhones, or any products or transportation fuels to support lifestyles and economies around the world!

Neither VP Kamala Harris nor Minnesota Governor Tim Walz are cognizant that all the parts of spacecrafts, EV’s, and for more than 50,000 merchant ships, more than 20,000 commercial aircraft  more than  50,000 military aircraft , 23,000 private planes, and 33 million pleasure boats are made from the products based on derivatives manufactured from crude oil.

In addition, all those merchant ships, commercial and military aircraft, private planes, and pleasure boats, use transportation fuels manufactured from crude oil. 

FURTHER, everything that NEEDS electricity to function, like iPhones, iPads, TV’s, computers, data centers, and X-Ray machines are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from raw crude oil.

It’s shocking that neither Harris nor Walz comprehend that electricity was developed AFTER the discovery of crude oil. Without the parts and components to be able to generate electricity such as insulation, copper wiring, computers, control panels, and air conditioning, there would be no electricity from any of the six methods used to generate electricity such as coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar.

Amazingly, neither Harris nor Walz have enough Energy Literacy to direct policymakers to write energy policies!

Policymakers have no comprehension that crude oil is virtually never used to generate electricity, but when manufactured into those petrochemicals that are the basis of more than 6,000 products, is the basis for virtually all the products that support Hospitals, Medical equipment, Appliances, Electronics, Telecommunications, Heating and Ventilating, and Communications systems.

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MILLIONS OF BARRELS FROM U.S. EMERGENCY OIL RESERVE SENT ABROAD, INCLUDING TO CHINA

Courtesy of Reuters we know: more than 5 million barrels of oil that were part of the historic U.S. SPR release were exported to Europe and Asia last month, including top US geopolitical nemesis in the global arena, China, even as U.S. gasoline and diesel prices hit record highs.

The export of crude and fuel is blunting the impact of the moves by U.S. President Joe Biden to lower record pump prices. In a widely mocked call, Biden on Saturday renewed a call for gasoline suppliers to cut their prices, drawing rightful criticism from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, because going after mom and pop gas stores merely demonstrates just how clueless the handlers of the senile presidential puppet truly are.

About 1 million barrels per day have been drained from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve through October, an unprecedented pace. The drain means SPR inventories fell to the lowest since 1986. US crude futures are above $100 per barrel and gasoline and diesel prices above $5 a gallon in one-fifth of the nation. US officials have said oil prices could be higher if the SPR had not been tapped, and for once they are right. Still, the question looms of what happens to oil prices when the US can no longer sell the SPR amid concerns of a real emergency: we know the answer and the Biden admin won’t like it.

“The SPR remains a critical energy security tool to address global crude oil supply disruptions,” a Department of Energy spokesperson said, adding that the emergency releases helped ensure stable supply of crude oil.

Citing customs data, Reuters traced that the fourth-largest U.S. oil refiner, Phillips 66 shipped about 470,000 barrels of sour crude from the Big Hill SPR storage site in Texas to Trieste, Italy. Trieste is home to a pipeline that sends oil to refineries in central Europe. Meanwhile, Atlantic Trading & Marketing (ATMI), an arm of French oil major TotalEnergies, exported 2 cargoes of 560,000 barrels each. Cargoes of SPR crude were also headed to the Netherlands and to a Reliance refinery in India, an industry source said.

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US troops smuggle 70 oil tankers out of Syria

US occupation forces have reportedly continued looting Syrian oil from the northern Al-Jazeera region of Syria’s Hasakah governate, as a US-military convoy of around 70 oil tankers made their way towards Iraq through the illegal Al-Waleed border crossing on 14 May.

According to local sources in the Al-Yarubiyah countryside, the convoy was accompanied by an additional 15 trucks carrying military equipment bound for Iraq, as well as six armored vehicles.

This comes just one day after 46 US vehicles were reportedly transferred out of Syria through the same border crossing.

US troops and their proxy in northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are in control of most of the oil fields in Hasakah and Deir Ezzor and have been regularly smuggling Syrian oil out of the country to sell it abroad.

Dozens of similar US convoys have been reported over the last year and a half. On 18 December 2021, nearly one hundred oil tankers were smuggled into northern Iraq through the same illegal crossing.

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