Tag: oil

Iranian gunboats fire on tanker in Strait of Hormuz as Iran reimposes restrictions

The dueling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz lurched into uncharted waters on Saturday. The United States pressed ahead with its campaign to choke off Iranian ports and Iran reversed an initial move to reopen the waterway, firing on a ship attempting to pass.

Confusion over the critical chokepoint threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed conflict, even as mediators expressed confidence a new deal was within reach.

Iran’s joint military command said on Saturday that “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control of the armed forces.” It warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

Two gunboats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said on Saturday. It reported the tanker and crew as safe, without identifying the vessel or its destination. TankerTrackers.com reported vessels were forced to turn around in the strait, including an Indian-flagged super tanker, after they were fired on by Iran.

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The Strait Of Hormuz Crisis Exposes A Fatal Flaw In Economic Thinking

A priest, an engineer, and an economist are stranded on a desert island. The first order of business is to get some food. The priest suggests that they all pray. The practical-minded engineer suggests that the three men make a net to catch some fish. But where will they find the necessary materials? The priest and the engineer turn to the economist and ask him if he has any ideas. The economist replies, “Assume a fish.”

This well-worn economist joke summarizes one of the chief flaws in contemporary economic theory.

That theory almost completely ignores the role of physical resources, assuming they will always be available in the quantities we need at prices we can afford at the time we need them. When those resources aren’t available, that theory begrudgingly accepts that there will be some damage to economic activity, but tends to greatly underestimate the impact.

This conceptual flaw explains why economists in most financial institutions and governments, and thus investors, are not especially alarmed at the loss of energy resources, as stock market indices remain not too far from their recent highs.

For a good summary of how contemporary economic theory goes off the rails, Australian economist Steve Keen offers a mercifully brief and comprehensible explanation. Here I will relate one critical part of that explanation. About 5.7 percent of U.S. GDP is devoted to procuring and distributing energy. Most economists will tell you that a 10 percent decline in energy availability would have a small effect on the U.S. economy. They would take the percentage of the economy devoted to energy, in this case 5.7 percent, and multiply it by 10 percent to arrive at a 0.57 percent reduction in economic activity.

This conclusion is utter nonsense and not even close to what the effects would be.

The reason is that energy is the master resource. It cannot be treated like other resources. Energy is the resource that makes all other resources available. Nothing gets done without energy. The correlation between economic activity and energy use is 0.9 (where 1.0 represents a perfect correlation). This should come as no surprise. When the economy is growing, energy use grows with it as energy fuels the economic activity that pushes growth.

What this implies is that a 10 percent reduction in energy availability is much more likely to result in a decline in economic activity closer to 10 percent than to one-half percent.  For comparison, the real GDP of the United States fell 4.3 percent during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009.

So, how much energy is currently being denied to the global economy by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? No one knows for certain. We do know that liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar were previously transiting through the strait. And, close to 20 percent of the world’s oil supply was also passing through the strait on a daily basis.

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Can’t bomb your way out of a logistical bottleneck

When officials from the United States and Iran walked away from negotiations in Pakistan this weekend with no deal on the Strait of Hormuz, markets didn’t wait for clarity. They reacted. The subsequent announcement by United States Central Command of a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports was meant to reassure. Instead, it raised more questions than answers.

Markets, as they often do, may be reading this correctly.

The Strait of Hormuz is not just another geopolitical hotspot. It is one of the most critical arteries of the global economy. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and close to 30% of globally traded fertilizers pass through that narrow corridor. When flows are threatened, the consequences extend far beyond energy markets. They move quickly into agriculture, food production, and ultimately, the prices Canadians pay at the grocery store.

Oil prices are now back above $100 USD per barrel, but the real story began months ago. Markets started pricing in Middle East risks early in the year. In the food economy, there is typically a six- to nine-month lag between energy shocks and retail food prices. That means the inflationary pressure we are beginning to feel today was already set in motion weeks ago.

For Canadian consumers, it is already too late to avoid it.

The first signs are now emerging across the food system. Transport companies, facing extraordinary volatility, are reintroducing fuel surcharges and adjusting contracts upward. Suppliers are hedging aggressively. These costs do not stay within the supply chain—they get passed along.

Fresh produce will be among the first categories to reflect this shift. Fruits and vegetables rely heavily on long-distance, temperature-controlled transport, making them highly sensitive to fuel costs. Canadians should expect price increases in the range of 5% to 15% over the coming months, particularly for imported items. Meat and seafood will follow. These products are energy-intensive at every stage—from feed production to processing and refrigeration—and are likely to rise by 5% to 10%, with beef leading the way.

Dairy products will also move higher, though more gradually, as rising energy costs affect processing and distribution. Increases of 4% to 8% are likely over the next few quarters. Even staples like bread and cereals will not be spared. Fertilizer markets, closely tied to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, will push grain production costs higher, resulting in price increases of 3% to 6%. Processed foods, exposed to energy at multiple stages, will also climb steadily.

These are not isolated adjustments. They reflect a broader reality. Historically, a sustained rise in oil prices adds between one and three percentage points to food inflation in Canada. Under current conditions, grocery inflation could easily climb back toward 6% to 8%. For households, that translates into real money. Every sustained 25% increase in oil prices typically adds $150 to $200 annually to the average grocery bill. With oil already surging, the total impact could be several hundred dollars per family.

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The US refinery now processing Venezuelan oil

The Minerva Gloria is docked at a wharf in the Mississippi Sound, not far from the US’s vast oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico.

The ship, 820ft (250m) long, painted navy and burgundy, is carrying precious cargo from Venezuela that, just six months ago, would have been impossible to bring to the US – 400,000 barrels of crude oil.

Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves. Under Venezuela’s former president Nicholas Maduro oil exports had dropped significantly, due to a lack of investment. Then came US sanctions against any imports from the Latin American country.

But US President Donald Trump vowed to tap those reserves after the US military captured Maduro in a surprise, night-time raid in January.

Now the oil is flowing again in Venezuela. In March, the country’s monthly crude exports surpassed one million barrels per day. The first time since September.

As the world reels from the impact on global energy prices caused by Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, big oil and gas companies like Chevron are now importing Venezuelan crude oil by the shipload.

“It’s a big deal not only for Chevron but the entire Gulf region,” says Tim Potter. He is the director for Chevron’s oil refinery in Pascagoula, Mississippi, the company’s largest operation in the US. It is also the only major US oil company currently operating in Venezuela.

Together this means that Chevron can extract its own Venezuelan oil, process it itself, and get it directly to the US consumer.

“It’s a pretty big incentive for us to run it,” Potter says. “The refinery was really designed, and we invested in the refinery, to run heavy oils like from Venezuela.”

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US stock markets fall, oil soars as Trump promises to bomb Iran ‘back to the stone age’

The value of US stock markets fell, while the price of oil soared in early trading on 2 April following US President Donald Trump’s speech in which he vowed to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age.”

The president said on Wednesday evening from the White House that the US would continue its bombing campaign on Iran “until our objectives are fully achieved,” suggesting the war will last longer than expected.

“I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly. We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks – we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” Trump vowed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell some 1.3 percent when the US stock market opened the following morning. The S&P 500 index was also down 1.3 percent, while the Nasdaq composite was down 1.7 percent. Much of the losses were recovered over the course of the trading day.

Oil prices rose sharply and remained high throughout the day. The price of US crude rose to $113 – a 13 percent gain.

Brent crude, the international baseline, rose more than eight percent, to $109 per barrel.

US stock markets rallied, and the price of oil fell to start the week, after Trump stated on Sunday he was having “serious discussions” with a “new and more reasonable regime in Tehran.”

But the price of oil has risen following Trump’s remarks, which underscored that the war will not end soon and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed indefinitely.

Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on 28 February, the strategic waterway has effectively remained closed due to the threat of Iranian attacks and soaring insurance premiums for vessels wishing to transit it.

Energy prices have since skyrocketed, as Gulf oil exports through the strait have ground to a halt.

During his Wednesday address, Trump expressed no urgency in opening Hormuz, instead criticizing European nations suffering from fuel shortages for refusing to send their own warships to reopen it.

“To those countries that can’t get fuel – many of which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves – I have a suggestion,” he said.

“Number one, buy oil from the United States of America; we have plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed courage … Go to the strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done.”

Trump claimed that Hormuz would likely “just open up naturally” at the close of the war.

He called rising gas prices in the US a “short-term” matter, while claiming “the United States has never been better prepared economically to confront this threat.”

Regarding Trump’s threats, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said Thursday that Tehran has “no choice but to fight back strongly.”

“We will not tolerate this vicious cycle of war, negotiations, ceasefire, and then repeating the same pattern,” he said in a statement reported by state media. “This is catastrophic not only for Iran, but for the entire region and beyond.”

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Former CentCom Chief McKenzie: U.S. Has Planned for Kharg Island Attack for Years

Retired Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, the former chief of the U.S. Central Command, which is managing the war against Iran, told CBS’s Face The Nation on Sunday that the U.S. has planned for a ground invasion of Kharg Island and other points in Iran for years.

McKenzie also said the war will be considered a success when the United States reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, Trump gave Iran until April 6 to reopen the vital energy waterway, which carries 20 millions barrels of oil per day.

Yet the plan for U.S. forces to reopen the strait is also years old, McKenzie said. McKenzie’s commentary strongly suggested U.S. ground forces will attack Kharg island to seize its oil facilities.

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Ukraine’s Backers Want Reduction In Long-Range Strikes On Russian Oil, Zelensky Says

We’ve been highlighting the significant impact of the Iran war on developments in Ukraine, where the over four-year long war is showing no end in sight. Ukraine’s President Zelensky has made clear his view that the current global focus on the Iran conflict has put Kiev in a weakened position.

Already, Ukraine’s international partners are ‘primarily’ sending their anti-ballistic missile systems to the Middle East – with Ukraine ‘forgotten’ – Zelensky has recently said. But there’s more, as the hits keep coming: Zelensky revealed Monday that some of Ukraine’s backers have sent “signals” to scale back long-range strikes on Russia’s oil sector as global energy prices have soared.

“Recently, following such a severe global energy crisis, we have indeed ⁠received signals from some of our partners about how to reduce our responses in the ​oil sector and the energy sector of the Russian Federation,” Zelensky told journalists in a WhatsApp briefing, reported by Reuters.

This is perhaps what’s behind his calling for an Easter holiday truce with Russia. He had on the same day that he told journalists about a potential pause on long-range attacks on Russian energy stated: “If Russia is ready to stop hitting Ukrainian energy facilities, we will not respond against their energy sector.”

Zelensky just came off a tour of Middle East Gulf states, even amid Iran’s ongoing retaliation in the region, while seeking Ukrainian security assistance. In recent days he met with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan.

Reuters notes of this, “Fresh from a four-day visit to the Middle East, Zelenskiy said that he had reached agreement with some countries in the region to provide energy support to Ukraine.”

“Zelenskiy said at the weekend during his Middle ​East tour that he ​had reached a deal ⁠on diesel deliveries for a year to Ukraine, without providing further details,” the report continues. “Diesel is vital for the functioning of the Ukrainian armed forces and ​the country’s agricultural sector, the bedrock of the economy.”

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US gas prices soar as Iranian attack hits Kuwaiti tanker off Dubai coast

Welcome to RT’s live coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran and the wider chaos across the Middle East and beyond that the unprovoked attack has caused. Overnight, there have been reports of significant strikes both on Tehran and the Jewish state. While in Dubai there are reports of loud explosions and a strike on a Kuwaiti tanker.

The price of oil has dropped by almost 1% on global markets, while Moscow has doubled-down on its refusal to sell oil and gas to unfriendly nations.

The Pentagon is set to hold its sixth press briefing since the start of the conflict a month ago, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine expected to appear before journalists later on Tuesday.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Monday that “a coalition of nations” would secure the Strait of Hormuz by force while Iran’s ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali spoke to RT’s Sanchez Effect and dismissed US President Donald Trump’s claims that Tehran is negotiating with Washington, saying that US and Israeli officials are “planning how to strike Iran” rather than seeking peace.

Trump has also claimed that his goal of regime change in Iran was achieved by killing the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in the initial strikes on February 28. 

“The one regime was decimated, destroyed, they’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead, and the third regime – we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before… it truly is regime change… you can’t do much better than that,” Trump said.

The new leadership in Iran is “very reasonable,” he said, claiming that he feels that a deal with Tehran could be reached “soon.”

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Trump Says He Wants to “Take the Oil” in Iran

President Donald Trump has suggested the United States may try to take over Iran’s oil the way it did with Venezuela’s, per a Financial Times interview.

“To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘Why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” Trump told the FT.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” the U.S. president also told the publication, adding. “It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.”

Kharg Island is Iran’s oil hub, handling 90% of the country’s oil exports. The island lies beyond the Strait of Hormuz, however, which would make taking it a challenge, as noted by various military experts. According to official Pentagon statements, the U.S. has bombed as many as 90 targets on Kharg Island but these have not included oil facilities or infrastructure, per President Trump himself.

“We can do that on five minutes’ notice. It’ll be over,” Trump said earlier this month, referring to the pipelines connecting mainland Iran to Kharg Island. “Just one simple word, and the pipes will be gone too. But it’ll take a long time to rebuild that.”

That one simple word has yet to be pronounced, it seems, even as Trump told the FT on Sunday that “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it [Kharg Island] very easily.”

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U.S. Postal Service seeks 8% fuel surcharge for package deliveries as Iran war raises oil prices

The U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday said it is seeking to impose a temporary 8% fuel surcharge for package and express mail deliveries to deal with rising transportation costs, which include higher oil prices as a result of the Iran war.

If approved by the Postal Regulatory Commission, the surcharge would take effect April 26 and remain in place until Jan. 17, 2027, the Postal Service said in a notice on its website.

The 8% surcharge would apply to postage on Priority Mail Express, Priority Mail, USPS Ground Advantage, and Parcel Select products. First-class stamps and other mail services would not be affected.

Oil prices have jumped more than 40% since Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

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