Tag: oil

Trump says oil reserves would run out in 4 weeks without Iran deal, risking ‘bedlam’

President Trump said Wednesday that oil reserves could have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz were not opened.

“We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said in France while at the Group of Seven summit, discussing the recent memorandum of understanding with Iran. “You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.”

He said it would be “bedlam” if the oil ran out.

“What this does is it allows the ships to go,” he said of the Iran deal. “If we keep bombing, those ships won’t be going.”

It’s not entirely clear whether Trump was referring to U.S. or global oil inventories. The White House declined to elaborate, referring The Hill back to Trump’s original remarks.

In recent weeks, the International Energy Agency (IEA), an organization of oil consuming countries, has warned of declining oil reserves.

IEA head Fatih Birol said last month that oil reserve releases were helping to keep up the market supply, but he warned the reserves “are not endless.”

He indicated at the time that because of the war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, only a few weeks of commercial inventories were remaining. 

The IEA also warned in May that oil demand would exceed supply this year.

At the start of the war, both the U.S. and other IEA countries announced they would release oil from their strategic reserves, putting 400 million additional barrels onto the market.

As part of the announcement, the Trump administration said it would release 172 million barrels from its strategic reserve. The releases were set to occur over a 120-day period.

At the time, the U.S. strategic reserve comprised about 415 million barrels of oil, meaning the release of an additional 172 million would eventually bring the reserve down to about 243 million unless barrels were added or subtracted for other reasons.

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Joe Biden Brags About Killing Oil Industry During Appearance on ‘Jay Leno’s Garage’

Joe Biden bragged about killing the oil industry during an appearance on ‘Jay Leno’s Garage.’

In January 2025, in one of his last acts as president, Joe Biden permanently banned offshore drilling across 625 million acres of US ocean.

This is after Biden blocked oil drilling on 10 million acres in Alaska in 2023.

Joe Biden also canceled the Keystone XL pipeline his first day in office.

President Trump overturned Biden’s ban on Arctic drilling, but he is facing legal hurdles.

Biden boasted about his unprecedented power grab and attack on domestic drilling as he flew down the highway in a vintage car.

“The other thing I was able to do, I made sure there could be no oil drilling off the East Coast, the West Coast and 150 miles off the Gulf of Mexico [unintelligible] too,” Biden said to Jay Leno.

There’s nothing more elitist than two multimillionaires who own vintage gas guzzlers laughing about killing the oil industry.

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Russian Governors Rush To Deny Fuel Crisis As Rationing Spreads

Russia’s authorities and regional governors are racing to assure residents there are no fuel shortages amid an intensified Ukrainian drone campaign at Russian refineries and fuel supply roads.

Ukraine has stepped up attacks this month on key fuel supply routes in its territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea and Mariupol. Several Russian regions have been experiencing fuel shortages as Ukraine hits Russian oil refineries.

Last week, the Moscow Times reported that some gasoline stations in Moscow and regions in northern Russia have started to cap fuel purchases per driver, in a move to prevent panic buying.

Officials are playing down the fuel crisis.

Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the northwestern Leningrad region, said this week that “Supplies are being delivered according to plan, there are no shortages,” as carried by Bloomberg.

Some isolated complaints about fuel shortages “do not reflect the overall situation,” the regional official said.

Governors all across Russia are looking to play down the extent of the crisis.

Meanwhile, earlier this month Russia admitted for the first time that its crude oil production is falling.

Russia’s crude oil production has declined since the beginning of the year as a number of local refineries are under unscheduled repairs and maintenance, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, in the first public acknowledgement from Moscow that its output is flailing.

“We have a number of refineries under unscheduled repairs. However, we are maximizing the use of the export infrastructure,” said Novak, who represents Russia at the OPEC+ meetings and at discussions about the alliance’s output.

Russia is preparing to sharply reduce crude oil exports this month as mounting refinery disruptions, fuel shortages, and Ukraine’s bombing campaign force Moscow to divert more barrels into the domestic market.

Exports from Russia’s western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk are expected to fall to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day in June from 2.5 million bpd in May, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary industry and trading data.

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Oil Execs Warn Trump Gas Prices Are About to Get Hell of a Lot Worse

Gas prices could climb even higher in the coming months.

Industry officials have already warned the White House that the prices could spike yet again due to rapidly diminishing inventories, reported The Washington Post Thursday.

Since the beginning of the Iran war, commercial and government inventories have supplemented gas consumption across the U.S. The reserves have allowed prices to hover around $4.50 per gallon for the last four months—but that could change very quickly, according to oil and gas executives, who are often loath to make such alarming predictions.

“We’re sounding the alarm on these inventories going to record lows,” American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers told Fox Business. “We have to solve this problem in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Some inventories could be wiped out in a matter of weeks, according to the Post—just in time for summer holidays.

“I have absolutely no doubt the White House—from the president on down—is fully aware of the nearly universal alarm among oil companies and analysts about the direction of travel for oil prices this summer,” Bob McNally, a former Bush administration energy adviser, told the Post.

Yet Trump has been remarkably cavalier about the rising costs. With inflation at a three-year high, Trump stunned reporters, lawmakers, and voters alike on Wednesday with just four words: “I love the inflation,” he said.

“I love it,” he insisted, pledging that oil prices will drop “like a rock” when the war ends.

But the end of the war seems to be nowhere in sight. U.S. forces bombed Iran through two nights this week, part of the White House’s latest strategy to force Tehran to make a deal, despite the obvious risks of escalation.

“If we need to negotiate with bombs, we will negotiate with bombs,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday. “We will strike them hard tonight and hopefully Iran makes a good decision.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s allies aren’t so sure that their political movement will weather the brewing economic storm. The far-right populist rode the 2024 campaign on vehement promises of affordability; through his presidency, he swore that Americans would see lower utility bills, cheaper groceries, and more American-based jobs. But that hasn’t been the case.

Instead, as millions of Americans struggle with the rising cost of living and companies contend with rattled supply chains, the president’s inner circle fear that it might be too late to fix the problem for Trump’s midterm-dependent acolytes.

“Whether it’s peak inflation or not, it doesn’t matter,” one former Trump administration official told Politico. “The die has been cast in terms of how people are looking at the economy.”

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The Rule of One Price and the Donald’s ‘F’ In Energy Economics 101

The Donald seems to think he has all the time in the world to end the conflagration he and Bibi started in the Persian Gulf. Today he even told the mullahs to take a hike when they suspended any further negotiations owing to Bibi’s brutal strikes on civilian targets in southern Lebanon and continued violations of the so-called April 13th truce in the Persian Gulf.

Thus, regarding the meandering negotiations of the last 45 days, the Donald averred,

“I don’t care if they’re over, honestly… I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,”

Brave words, these. And completely, totally and hideously out to lunch, too.

What’s actually just around the corner is an explosion of oil and related energy prices that will make the 1970s look like a Sunday school picnic, but here we have the Donald talking just plain barking idiocy about what comes next:

He also said he wasn’t worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report in Iranian state media that Tehran is vowing to “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz in addition to halting negotiations.

“I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,” Trump said.

The president of the United States – the alleged sagacious businessman we have purportedly been waiting for – couldn’t be more sadly mistaken about something as basic and straight forward as the price of crude oil, its refined products and related energy commodities: To wit, the Donald is absolutely clueless about the cardinal fact that there is one world oil market and ONE PRICE the planet over.

And that’s regardless of the fact that the US is now a large scale net exporter of crude oil, refined products and nat gas liquids. In recent weeks, in fact, the Persian Gulf outages have caused exports to soar 12.9 mb/d, which is up nearly 20% from the 10.8 mb/d average during 2025. In all, current net exports of petroleum liquids at 5.7 mb/d leave not doubt that the USA is solidly “energy independent”.

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Ukraine Strikes St Petersburg As International Economic Forum Commences

Ukrainian forces have struck an oil facility in St. Petersburg, only hours before the start of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an event highlighted by Russian leadership as a flagship conference on Russian world leadership.

The Kremlin declared, “The “Special Military Operation” is continuing precisely to prevent attacks like the attack on Saint Petersburg from occurring. Putin will speak at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.”

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The Iran Obsession

I was reading an old Atlantic Monthly from November 2007 and came across this quote:

We’ve got to be patient and committed [in Iraq], but we’ve got to multitask… We’ve got to talk about Iran – Iran is more dangerous than Iraq – and we have got to get the job done in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.

That was Rudolph Giuliani, speaking as a Republican presidential candidate in July 2007.

Back then, the saying was that everyone wants to go to Baghdad but that real men want to go to Tehran. Weirdly, neither Iran nor Iraq had anything to do with the 9/11 attacks in 2001. What those countries did have was oil – and lots of it.

The Iran obsession persists, of course, and it’s shared by both political parties. When she ran for president in 2024, Kamala Harris identified Iran as the greatest adversary the United States faced in the world.

The truth is that neither Iran nor Iraq posed a direct or imminent threat to the USA. What each country possessed was an enormous amount of oil and political leaders who didn’t want to kowtow to U.S. economic imperatives.

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Ukraine Continues Assault on Russian Oil Infrastructure with More Drone Strikes

Ukrainian drone strikes caused fires at more Russian oil facilities overnight into Saturday, local Russian officials said, in what appeared to be the latest attack on Moscow’s vital oil industry.

Authorities in Russia’s Rostov region said falling drone debris sparked a fire that damaged an oil depot and tanker in the port of Taganrog, while officials in the neighboring Krasnodar region reported a fire breaking out at an oil depot in Armavir for the same reason.

“Another facility of Russia’s oil industry has been reached – Armavir,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X Saturday of the attack in the Krasnodar region, noting that Armavir is “500 kilometers from our state border.”

“We are rightfully bringing the war back to where it came from,” he wrote.

Ukraine has expanded its mid- and long-range strike capabilities, deploying drone and missile technology that it has developed domestically to battle Russia’s 4-year-old invasion. Attacks on Russian oil assets that play a key part in funding the invasion have become almost daily occurrences.

For its part, Russia has used its long-range ballistic missiles to damage Ukraine’s power grid and hammer cities. The Ukrainian capital is bracing for further heavy bombardments after what the Russian Foreign Ministry said earlier this week would be upcoming “systemic strikes” on Kyiv. Zelenskyy said Thursday that he’s being “very persistent” in pressing the United States to provide his country with more Patriot air defense missiles that can counter devastating Russian ballistic missile attacks.

The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure came a day after a Russian drone that was part of an attack on Ukraine went astray and struck an apartment building in eastern Romania, injuring two people in the NATO member country. The incursion added to concerns that the war could spread across the alliance´s borders, and drew strong condemnation across Europe.

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Green Retreat: California Eases Carbon-Market Costs For Oil Refiners

California’s green-energy regime has hollowed out the state’s refining and oil industry, leaving motorists paying the highest gasoline prices in the country. AAA data show the state gasoline average now north of $6 per gallon, compared with a national average of roughly $4.36 as of Saturday morning.

The result of political blowback in California over unaffordable gasoline and diesel prices at the pump is a retreat from left-wing climate policies that could offer relief to motorists, Bloomberg News reports.

On Friday, the California Air Resources Board voted to create up to $4 billion in free carbon allowances for oil refiners and other industrial polluters. This will help them more easily comply with the state’s greenhouse gas limits under the Cap-and-Invest program.

Earlier this year, CARB proposed further tightening emission limits by removing 118 million allowances from the market to keep the state on track to meet its 2030 climate targets. For refiners, that would mean further reducing emissions or paying more for allowances, with mounting costs already pushing them out of the state. 

The move will help contain gasoline prices at the pump and prevent refiners from leaving the state, especially after energy disruptions in the Gulf region pushed California gasoline prices above $6.

Take US oil giant Chevron, which recently warned that California is careening toward an energy crisis because of the Iran war, and that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations.

California is highly exposed to the disruption rippling through commodity markets, as it imports about 20% of its refined fuels from Asia. But as extensively discussed here, oil product shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere have been disrupted, leaving Asian nations struggling to meet domestic demand, let alone export to California.

Chevron’s oil refining head Andy Walz recently warned that the potential for fuel shortages in California is his worst fear: “We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, and so they’re going to make fewer products,” Walz said in an interview in late March. “What if San Francisco doesn’t have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?”

Since California is disconnected from the U.S. fuel-making centers of Texas and Louisiana, it is essentially an energy island.

Walz noted in March, days after the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out, that tightening California’s cap-and-invest program “made no sense when you look at global tensions right now.”

California’s green regime has produced nothing but disastrous consequences for households, making fuel prices the highest in the nation:

There are national security implications stemming from the green regime, especially for the state with the nation’s largest concentration of military personnel and national security activity.

The retreat on climate targets by state regulators is a win for consumers and the nation, as green is nothing more than inflationary and degrowth, hitting working-poor households the hardest with unaffordable gasoline and diesel prices at the pump.

Elsewhere, the US-Iran conflict has forced left-wing states such as New York, Massachusetts, and others to dial back unrealistic climate ambitions.

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Norway Lobbies To Persuade EU To Drop Arctic Drilling Ban

Norway, Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer, has intensified lobbying at the European Union to persuade the bloc to remove or tweak its moratorium on Arctic oil and gas drilling.

Norway, which is not a member of the EU but is the biggest gas supplier to European markets, has sent nearly a dozen of its ministers to Brussels so far this year to discuss energy and trade and the state of the Arctic drilling.

The Iran war and the biggest oil and gas supply disruption in history have added to Norway’s arguments that Europe needs reliable supply from places outside of conflict zones.

However, the EU’s moratorium enacted in 2021 due to the bloc’s climate commitments and environmental concerns, does not allow drilling in Norway’s northern parts of the Barents Sea, which is estimated to contain most of the remaining Norwegian oil and gas resources.

“Norway is very active and good at making its voice heard,” the EU’s special envoy for the Arctic, Claude Veron-Reville, told Bloomberg in an interview this week.

“Norway knows very well how to intervene, they are very well organized and very present,” Veron-Reville added.

Norway argues that an arbitrary line defining the Arctic area shouldn’t be viewed as the cut-off line for oil and gas drilling.

“There are no climate arguments for treating oil and gas produced north and south of a certain line differently,” Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told Bloomberg.

Norway’s lobbying efforts clash with this week’s call of dozens of Scandinavian financial institutions which urged the European Commission to remain firm in its opposition to Arctic oil drilling even as the bloc could face physical oil shortages in weeks.

The EU could unlock 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas, or about 22 trillion cubic feet, if it rethinks its Arctic policy, Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy said early this year.

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