Tag: oil

The Iran Obsession

I was reading an old Atlantic Monthly from November 2007 and came across this quote:

We’ve got to be patient and committed [in Iraq], but we’ve got to multitask… We’ve got to talk about Iran – Iran is more dangerous than Iraq – and we have got to get the job done in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.

That was Rudolph Giuliani, speaking as a Republican presidential candidate in July 2007.

Back then, the saying was that everyone wants to go to Baghdad but that real men want to go to Tehran. Weirdly, neither Iran nor Iraq had anything to do with the 9/11 attacks in 2001. What those countries did have was oil – and lots of it.

The Iran obsession persists, of course, and it’s shared by both political parties. When she ran for president in 2024, Kamala Harris identified Iran as the greatest adversary the United States faced in the world.

The truth is that neither Iran nor Iraq posed a direct or imminent threat to the USA. What each country possessed was an enormous amount of oil and political leaders who didn’t want to kowtow to U.S. economic imperatives.

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Ukraine Continues Assault on Russian Oil Infrastructure with More Drone Strikes

Ukrainian drone strikes caused fires at more Russian oil facilities overnight into Saturday, local Russian officials said, in what appeared to be the latest attack on Moscow’s vital oil industry.

Authorities in Russia’s Rostov region said falling drone debris sparked a fire that damaged an oil depot and tanker in the port of Taganrog, while officials in the neighboring Krasnodar region reported a fire breaking out at an oil depot in Armavir for the same reason.

“Another facility of Russia’s oil industry has been reached – Armavir,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X Saturday of the attack in the Krasnodar region, noting that Armavir is “500 kilometers from our state border.”

“We are rightfully bringing the war back to where it came from,” he wrote.

Ukraine has expanded its mid- and long-range strike capabilities, deploying drone and missile technology that it has developed domestically to battle Russia’s 4-year-old invasion. Attacks on Russian oil assets that play a key part in funding the invasion have become almost daily occurrences.

For its part, Russia has used its long-range ballistic missiles to damage Ukraine’s power grid and hammer cities. The Ukrainian capital is bracing for further heavy bombardments after what the Russian Foreign Ministry said earlier this week would be upcoming “systemic strikes” on Kyiv. Zelenskyy said Thursday that he’s being “very persistent” in pressing the United States to provide his country with more Patriot air defense missiles that can counter devastating Russian ballistic missile attacks.

The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure came a day after a Russian drone that was part of an attack on Ukraine went astray and struck an apartment building in eastern Romania, injuring two people in the NATO member country. The incursion added to concerns that the war could spread across the alliance´s borders, and drew strong condemnation across Europe.

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Green Retreat: California Eases Carbon-Market Costs For Oil Refiners

California’s green-energy regime has hollowed out the state’s refining and oil industry, leaving motorists paying the highest gasoline prices in the country. AAA data show the state gasoline average now north of $6 per gallon, compared with a national average of roughly $4.36 as of Saturday morning.

The result of political blowback in California over unaffordable gasoline and diesel prices at the pump is a retreat from left-wing climate policies that could offer relief to motorists, Bloomberg News reports.

On Friday, the California Air Resources Board voted to create up to $4 billion in free carbon allowances for oil refiners and other industrial polluters. This will help them more easily comply with the state’s greenhouse gas limits under the Cap-and-Invest program.

Earlier this year, CARB proposed further tightening emission limits by removing 118 million allowances from the market to keep the state on track to meet its 2030 climate targets. For refiners, that would mean further reducing emissions or paying more for allowances, with mounting costs already pushing them out of the state. 

The move will help contain gasoline prices at the pump and prevent refiners from leaving the state, especially after energy disruptions in the Gulf region pushed California gasoline prices above $6.

Take US oil giant Chevron, which recently warned that California is careening toward an energy crisis because of the Iran war, and that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations.

California is highly exposed to the disruption rippling through commodity markets, as it imports about 20% of its refined fuels from Asia. But as extensively discussed here, oil product shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere have been disrupted, leaving Asian nations struggling to meet domestic demand, let alone export to California.

Chevron’s oil refining head Andy Walz recently warned that the potential for fuel shortages in California is his worst fear: “We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, and so they’re going to make fewer products,” Walz said in an interview in late March. “What if San Francisco doesn’t have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?”

Since California is disconnected from the U.S. fuel-making centers of Texas and Louisiana, it is essentially an energy island.

Walz noted in March, days after the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out, that tightening California’s cap-and-invest program “made no sense when you look at global tensions right now.”

California’s green regime has produced nothing but disastrous consequences for households, making fuel prices the highest in the nation:

There are national security implications stemming from the green regime, especially for the state with the nation’s largest concentration of military personnel and national security activity.

The retreat on climate targets by state regulators is a win for consumers and the nation, as green is nothing more than inflationary and degrowth, hitting working-poor households the hardest with unaffordable gasoline and diesel prices at the pump.

Elsewhere, the US-Iran conflict has forced left-wing states such as New York, Massachusetts, and others to dial back unrealistic climate ambitions.

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Norway Lobbies To Persuade EU To Drop Arctic Drilling Ban

Norway, Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer, has intensified lobbying at the European Union to persuade the bloc to remove or tweak its moratorium on Arctic oil and gas drilling.

Norway, which is not a member of the EU but is the biggest gas supplier to European markets, has sent nearly a dozen of its ministers to Brussels so far this year to discuss energy and trade and the state of the Arctic drilling.

The Iran war and the biggest oil and gas supply disruption in history have added to Norway’s arguments that Europe needs reliable supply from places outside of conflict zones.

However, the EU’s moratorium enacted in 2021 due to the bloc’s climate commitments and environmental concerns, does not allow drilling in Norway’s northern parts of the Barents Sea, which is estimated to contain most of the remaining Norwegian oil and gas resources.

“Norway is very active and good at making its voice heard,” the EU’s special envoy for the Arctic, Claude Veron-Reville, told Bloomberg in an interview this week.

“Norway knows very well how to intervene, they are very well organized and very present,” Veron-Reville added.

Norway argues that an arbitrary line defining the Arctic area shouldn’t be viewed as the cut-off line for oil and gas drilling.

“There are no climate arguments for treating oil and gas produced north and south of a certain line differently,” Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told Bloomberg.

Norway’s lobbying efforts clash with this week’s call of dozens of Scandinavian financial institutions which urged the European Commission to remain firm in its opposition to Arctic oil drilling even as the bloc could face physical oil shortages in weeks.

The EU could unlock 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas, or about 22 trillion cubic feet, if it rethinks its Arctic policy, Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy said early this year.

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House Passes E15 Bill as Government Panics Over Energy Crisis Begins

Congress is pushing nationwide year-round E15 gasoline because they are worried about fuel supply disruptions and soaring prices as the war cycle intensifies. They call it “consumer choice” and “energy independence,” but when you strip away the political marketing, what they are really doing is diluting the fuel supply because they are terrified of shortages and price spikes.

The House just passed H.R. 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, by a vote of 218-203. The bill would permanently allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline nationwide. E15 is gasoline blended with 15% ethanol instead of the standard 10%. Congress and the EPA are presenting this as some patriotic victory for farmers and consumers while pretending Americans are not noticing what is really taking place.

The government keeps saying E15 lowers prices at the pump. Of course, it does on paper. You are blending more ethanol into the fuel supply. Ethanol contains less energy per gallon than pure gasoline. That means your mileage declines and your tank empties faster. People end up buying more fuel more often while politicians brag that prices “fell” a few cents per gallon. Americans are paying more for less while Washington pretends this is economic progress.

The EPA openly admitted the purpose behind the emergency waivers was to “prevent disruption in America’s fuel supply” as the Iran war pushed energy markets into panic. They are not doing this because the economy is strong. They are doing this because they are worried about supply itself.

“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers. Allowing the summer sale of E-15 will provide drivers more options at the pump, and deliver a bigger domestic market for American farmers,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. The government is congratulating itself for putting lipstick on a pig. Trump spent years condemning Biden’s energy policies that led to elevated prices for different reasons. Washington does not want voters to look at an $ 8-per-gallon situation and suddenly realize that government policy has failed yet again because politicians continually act in their own self-interest while jeopardizing the entire country. The people always suffer when government instigates war. Quite unfortunate as Trump promised to keep America out of the Middle East, but somewhere along the way he morphed from a businessman into a politician. Human nature is consistent.

Governments dilute and stretch what they can at the beginning of a crisis. They lower standards quietly while telling the public everything is under control. You see it in currencies, banking, food quality, and now fuel. The objective is always the same: make a limited supply appear larger. Could this improve consumer sentiment regarding energy? People are still going to pay more at the pump. The end result is higher prices which equates to angry and fearful consumers. It is absolutely insulting for our overlords to question our intelligence in this manner. They genuinely believe we are too stupid to notice.

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Iraq’s Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes

  • Iraq’s oil production has collapsed to just 1.39 million bpd after the Strait of Hormuz blockade stranded exports.
  • Baghdad is urgently trying to revive northern export routes through Turkey, including the Kirkuk-Ceyhan system and a new Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline.
  • China is re-emerging as a major strategic player in Iraq’s energy infrastructure, with Chinese firms heavily involved in Baghdad’s new north-south pipeline expansion.

April was indeed the cruellest month for decades for Iraq’s crude oil production, with an average of 1.389 million barrels per day (bpd) over the period. This compares to a monthly average of 3.47 million bpd from January 2002 to the end of March this year, and an average of over 4.1 million bpd in the three months leading up to the onset of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February. The last time oil production fell to the current level in the country was in the early 2000s, during and immediately following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Even for a diversified economy, this would spell bad news, but for Iraq, it is existential, with over 90% of its annual budget historically coming from oil and around 95% of that black gold having to pass through the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz before it is monetised. The effective closure of that key export route meant that Iraq’s domestic oil storage tanks quickly filled to maximum capacity, and because it has extremely limited options to transport its crude elsewhere, it has been forced to shut down production wells entirely. As disastrous as it is now, even worse may be to come soon, as these shutdowns can cause permanent damage to wells through a loss of reservoir pressure, water infiltration, and corrosion, among other factors. In Iraq’s case, many of its biggest mature southern fields are highly susceptible to these problems. This is why the race has been on in Baghdad to secure other export options, most notably now, pipeline options in the north, but these bring their own sets of problems with them.

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Carney Calls Alberta Referendum a ‘Dangerous Bluff’, as Oil-Rich Province Set To Vote on Leaving Woke Canada

Alberta separatism is a reality, despite establishment figures such as Carney trying to deny the facts.

As the oil-rich province of Alberta gears up for the October referendum on separating from globalist Canada, the pushback from defenders of the status quo is relentless.

Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney is one of them.

After branding Alberta essential to Canada, Carney has criticized its upcoming referendum as a ‘dangerous bluff’, comparing it to the Brexit process of the UK leaving the European Union.

BBC reported:

“Carney, who led the Bank of England during Brexit, said that 10 years on from the referendum the UK was ‘trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having’.

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Britain Desperate for Oil

Britain is now discovering you cannot dismantle your industrial and energy base, wage war on domestic production, impose endless climate regulations, and still expect to maintain a functioning economy. Reality eventually arrives no matter how many politicians attempt to legislate against it.

The UK is quietly loosening oil and gas restrictions because the country is becoming desperate. After years of aggressively pushing Net Zero policies, discouraging North Sea investment, raising windfall taxes on producers, and pretending renewable systems alone could carry an advanced industrial economy, Britain is being forced to confront the simple reality that energy shortages destroy economies from the inside out.

The North Sea once represented one of the great strategic advantages for Britain. During the peak years around the late 1990s and early 2000s, the UK was producing nearly 4.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. That production has collapsed by more than 70% over the past two decades. At the same time, Britain became increasingly dependent on imported energy while shutting down domestic capacity.

What politicians never understand is that energy is not just another sector of the economy. Energy is the economy. Every industry depends upon it. Food production depends on it. Transportation depends on it. Manufacturing depends on it. Once energy prices rise high enough, inflation spreads through the entire system because energy sits underneath every layer of economic activity.

Britain now faces exactly the trap I warned Europe was heading toward. Deindustrialization combined with rising debt and declining living standards. Manufacturing weakens, capital flees, energy costs rise, and governments respond with more taxation and regulation which only accelerates the collapse further. This becomes a vicious cycle.

The desperation is now becoming obvious. The UK government is reportedly reconsidering restrictions on North Sea drilling and attempting to stabilize investment conditions because energy firms were already beginning to abandon projects entirely. The punitive tax structure imposed on producers created massive uncertainty while investment dried up. Companies simply stopped committing capital because governments kept changing the rules in the middle of the game.

Europe is in a depressionary phase while capital continues moving toward countries with stronger energy and industrial positions. You cannot build an economy entirely on financial services, bureaucracy, migration, and government spending while destroying the productive base underneath society itself.

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Graham on Iran: I Want to “Hurt Them More” by Wrecking Oil Industry

Israel-First GOP Senator Lindsey Graham wants President Trump to order more bombing of Iran’s civilian infrastructure and to “hurt them more,” and apparently doesn’t care that Republicans might well lose the midterms because of Trump’s growing unpopularity, largely because of the war in Iran.

As well, Graham told Meet the Press hostess Kristin Welker that Trump is comparable to Winston Churchill because of the president’s telling a reporter he doesn’t much care about Americans’ financial woes, and instead only cares about Israel and Iran’s supposedly obtaining a nuclear device.

Graham said he’d happily “give up” both houses of Congress to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

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US Treasury Extends Temporary Waiver for Vulnerable Nations To Access Russian Oil Stranded at Sea

More oil as the war drags on.

As the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran still holds, with ‘serious negotiations’ being held, the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are still affecting oil prices and the energy security of many countries.

Today (18), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Donald J. Trump administration will extend for another month a waiver that allows the sale of Russian crude that is already loaded on tankers.

Politico reported:

“The move is aimed at keeping more oil on global markets and tempering crude prices as the war in Iran, now nearing its third month, continues to choke off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But critics have blasted the waiver as allowing Russia to profit from elevated oil prices and enriching Moscow’s war machine.”

“The general license from Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control allows any country to purchase Russian oil already on the water for another month. It extends the sanctions relief, first issued in March and renewed in April, for a third month.

‘This general license will help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries’, Bessent said in an X post. ‘It will also help reroute existing supply to countries most in need by reducing China’s ability to stockpile discounted oil’.”

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