Kuwait Cuts Oil Output As Qatar Warns Hormuz Chokepoint Chaos Risks Global Shock

Kuwait began cutting crude oil output after storage tank farms began filling up, as crude could no longer be loaded onto very large crude carriers and transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Sources say the OPEC founding member is now weighing broader reductions in crude production and refining, potentially limiting operations to only domestic demand, with a decision expected within days.

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu noted that Brent crude futures climbed to $91/bbl after WSJ released the report.

WSJ noted:

Data provider Kpler said it has seen indications that Kuwait has started to cut production, adding that the country would have to cut more output in the coming days, as storage would otherwise fill up in around 12 days.

Shutting in an oil well risks long-term damage to reservoir pressure and incurs high restart costs, usually making it a measure of last resort. Restarting production can take days or even weeks depending on the reservoir.

“Storage is limited in the Middle East, and the only fix to avoid tanks running over is to curb production,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “The longer the strait stays closed, the more barrels of crude and refined products will be missing, leading to higher prices.”

Earlier in the day, Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the FT that “Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure.”

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Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ from Iran war as three commercial ships are ‘attacked’ in Strait of Hormuz and Tehran tries to strangle world’s energy supplies

Saudi Arabia‘s state oil company has warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ for the world’s oil markets if the Middle East war continues to choke exports, as three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The waterway is a chokepoint in the global oil trade, where roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil would ordinarily pass through daily. 

But as a result of the roiling war, oil shipments have been largely blocked from using the shipping artery. And Iran said on Tuesday it would not allow ‘one litre of oil’ to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue.

Amin Nasser, the CEO of Aramco, said: ‘While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.’

He admitted that while his firm, the world’s single biggest exporter of oil, was meeting most of its customers’ needs for now, this was only possible by tapping into storage facilities outside the Gulf. 

Nasser said that these stores cannot be used for ‘an extended period of time, but for the time being, we are capitalising on it.’ 

The CEO said: ‘There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets, and the longer the disruption goes on … the more drastic the consequences for the global economy.’ 

The stark warning comes after three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.

An attack on the Thailand-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree from an ‘unknown projectile’, which was reported at 4.35am GMT, happened 11 nautical miles north of Oman and resulted in a fire onboard the ship. 

Iran today confirmed it had attacked the Mayuree Naree, adding: ‘The American aggressors and their partners have no right to pass.’

Authorities are searching for three missing crew members from the Mayuree Naree after 20 were rescued by the Omani navy. 

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US will ‘make a ton of money’ from Iran war – senator

The US will control almost a third of the world’s oil and make record profits if it succeeds in toppling the Iranian government, hawkish Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told Fox News on Sunday.

Graham made the comments as global oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, which US President Donald Trump dismissed as “a very small price to pay” for the US-Israeli war against Iran, which was launched on February 28.

Graham described the cost of the attacks as the “best money ever spent,” arguing that the purpose is to prevent the country from developing nuclear weapons – which Iran has denied that it intends to do, insisting that its nuclear program is peaceful.

“When this regime goes down, we’re going to have a new Middle East, we are going to make a ton of money. Nobody will threaten the Strait of Hormuz again,” Graham said, adding that the US will install a “friendly” government in Tehran.

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Israel Air Force strikes Iranian oil facilities, military source says

IDF sources confirmed to The Jerusalem Post on Saturday night that the air force has attacked significant oil resources in the Tehran region of Iran.

According to the sources, the oil resources being attacked are directly connected to Iran’s military industrial complex.

It was unclear what distinctions the IDF would make in such attacks regarding differing oil sites, but there was a clear effort by the sources to emphasize the military nature of the sites, which might otherwise be framed as harming Iran’s economic power more broadly, even if a new regime might later take over.

In the past, senior Israeli sources have told the Post that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has in recent years taken over certain portions of the economy, especially in the oil sector.

Iranian opposition reports indicated that as many as 30 sites might be under attack.

This vector of attack on the Islamic regime‘s power is the newest front after prior attacks on air defenses, ballistic missiles, top Iranian leaders, ballistic missile supply chain locations, and regime repression forces.

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Bessent Says US May “Unsanction” More Russian Oil Amid Energy Crisis

Yesterday, when discussing the stunning development that Russia would be granted a one-month license to sell (formerly) sanctioned oil to india while the Straits of Hormuz are blocked, we said that this step is just the start, and precited “unlimited extensions” in the future. We had to wait less than 24 hours for this to come true.

Speaking to Fox Business, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US may lift sanctions on further Russian oil supply after a move Thursday to give Indian refiners the green light to purchase crude from the nation.

“Treasury agreed to let our allies in India start buying Russian oil that was already on the water,” Bessent said, explaining that “to ease the temporary gap of oil around the world, we have given them permission to accept the Russian oil. We may unsanction other Russian oil.”

Bessent said there’s “hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels of crude on the water now and in essence, by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create supply,” he said, quoting verbatim what we said on February 19.

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Beyond Oil: How The Iran War Could Send Food Prices Soaring

In the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, the financial press has reflexively focused on oil. Tanker traffic, Brent crude, and the risk of triple-digit prices dominate the discussion.

But oil is not the only commodity posing a serious long-term risk.

Another deep vulnerability runs through natural gas—and from there into nitrogen fertilizer. If commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were significantly restricted, the impact would extend beyond fuel markets. It would reach directly into global food production.

That’s because the Gulf region is not just a major energy exporter. It is one of the world’s most important suppliers of nitrogen fertilizer—the foundation of modern agricultural yields.

The Energy Behind the Food System

Nitrogen fertilizer begins with natural gas. Through the Haber-Bosch process, methane is converted into ammonia, which is then upgraded into urea and other nitrogen products. In practical terms, nitrogen fertilizer is natural gas transformed into plant food.

Roughly half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen. Without it, crop yields would decline sharply.

Globally, about 180 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers are consumed each year (measured in nutrient terms). Of that, roughly 55 to 60 million metric tons of urea move through international seaborne trade annually. The Middle East accounts for approximately 40% to 50% of that traded volume.

And nearly all of those exports must transit the Strait of Hormuz.

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Trump’s Venezuela Oil Plan Runs Into Hard Reality

Last week US President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities will turn over up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, before later declaring his administration will control Venezuela’s oil sales “indefinitely”.

Decrying the state of Venezuela’s oil sector, including that the South American country now pumps a fraction of what it used to, Trump said, “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

While that sounds like a great opportunity for the US oil majors, it’s one they may want to refuse. Why? Because the oil underneath Venezuela, which has the largest crude reserves in the world, greater even than Saudi Arabia and Iran, is technically challenging to extract and costly.

Moreover, it’s uncertain whether there would a change in the way Venezuela and its oil industry are being run, which presents a huge political risk for companies to return and operate there.

Former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the oil industry in the 1990s, and in 2007, he forced Exxon and ConocoPhillips out, after the companies refused to accept new terms that would give the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA, a majority share in their projects.

ConocoPhillips is still owed about $10 billion.

Only Chevron is currently authorized to operate in Venezuela and export crude to the United States.

“Until Caracas has a new government capable of gaining the confidence of international investors and banks, oil companies will be reluctant to make any major commitments,” states a recent Reuters piece.

When Trump met with oil executives last Friday, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods said, “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes.”

Trump has said the US government is prepared to provide security guarantees but not money for oil projects.

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The Great Oil Conspiracy: How the US Government Hid the Nazi Discovery of Abiotic Oil from the American Part Two

The Debate Over the Origin of Oil

The abiotic theory of the origin of oil, which suggests that oil is not derived from organic material, is still widely ridiculed in the United States as a “conspiracy theory” by the scientific community, despite most geo-scientists acknowledging that the idea of oil being produced by buried dinosaurs and ancient forests is no longer tenable.

The prevailing view among US geo-scientists is that oil is derived from ancient biological debris, such as plankton and algae, and is therefore considered a “fossil fuel”, even though the term “fossil” refers to the structure of an animal or plant filled with minerals, rather than the actual animal or plant itself.

Richard Heinberg, a senior fellow-in-residence at the Post Carbon Institute, argues that the assertion that all oil is abiotic requires extraordinary evidence to overcome the abundant evidence that ties specific oil accumulations to specific biological origins through a chain of well-understood processes.

Seppo Korpela, a professor at the Ohio State University Department of Mechanical Engineering, explains that fossil fuels form when organic matter in sedimentary layers is deprived of oxygen, allowing anaerobic bacteria to turn the organic material into kerogen, a substance that can be thought of as “immature oil”.

Kerogen Formation and the Fossil Fuel Process

Kerogen is a loose, geological term that refers to the naturally occurring, solid, insoluble organic material that occurs in source rocks and can yield oil upon heating, and is not a term typically found in chemistry textbooks or used by professional chemists.

The process by which kerogen is supposed to transform into “fossil fuel” involves the accumulation of dead organic material on the bottom of oceans, riverbeds, or swamps, mixing with mud and sand, and then being subjected to heat and pressure to produce oil, with the “oil window” being the zone at depths of between 6,000 and 13,000 feet where the temperature and pressure are suitable for this process to occur.

The process of transforming organic layers into kerogen, a dark and waxy substance, occurs over time as more sediment piles on top, resulting in heat and pressure that transforms the organic layer, and this process is described in the Schlumberger Oilfield Glossary.

The kerogen molecules eventually crack into shorter and lighter molecules composed almost solely of carbon and hydrogen atoms, which can turn into either petroleum or natural gas, depending on how liquid or gaseous the mixture is, as explained by the concept of kinetic cracking of kerogen into petroleum.

Chemical textbooks typically do not provide chemical formulae for kerogen, and the transformation from kerogen to fossil fuels appears to be more a matter of faith than an observed process that can be described in a precise chemical formula and replicated in a laboratory, according to M. Vandenbroucke of the French Institute of Petroleum.

Experimental Evidence for Abiotic Methane Production

In 2004, a research team led by Henry Scott of Indiana University, including Dudley Herschbach, a Harvard University research professor and Nobel Prize winner, successfully synthesized methane in a laboratory without using organic materials by squeezing together iron oxide, calcium carbonate, and water at high temperatures and pressures, testing a fundamental principle of the Fischer-Tropsch equations.

The experiment, which involved temperatures as hot as 500 degrees Celsius and pressures as high as 11 gigapascals, demonstrated the possibility of producing methane through abiotic means, which challenges the conventional understanding of the origin of oil and gas, and has implications for the concept of kerogen and the transformation of rock into hydrocarbon fuel.

The scientists conducted an experiment using a “diamond anvil cell” mechanism, which consisted of two diamonds, each about three millimeters high, to compress a small metal plate holding a sample of iron oxide, calcite, and water, in order to simulate the conditions deep within the earth.

The diamonds were chosen for the experiment because they are one of the hardest substances on earth, can withstand tremendous force, and are transparent, allowing scientists to use beams of light and X-rays to identify the contents of the cell without disrupting it, as explained by researchers including Henry P. Scott, Russell J. Hemley, Ho-kwang Mao, Dudley R. Herschbach, Laurence E. Fried, W. Michael Howard, and Sorin Bastea.

The goal of the experiment was to prove that a hydrocarbon of the petroleum family could be produced via simple inorganic reactions involving no biological agents, and remarkably, the experiment was successful in producing methane, the principal component of natural gas, at temperatures around 500 degrees Celsius and pressures of seven gigapascals or greater.

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The Great Oil Conspiracy: How the US Government Hid the Nazi Discovery of Abiotic Oil from the American People

US Army’s Post-WWII Investigation into German Synthetic Oil Production

The US Army had over 10,000 investigators, including industrialists, engineers, scientists, and technicians, who visited thousands of enemy factories, scientific institutions, and businesses in Germany to conduct top-secret interviews and gather documents as World War II drew to a close.

These investigators, who were actually intelligence operatives, were tasked with uncovering the secrets of Germany’s strategic materials production, including advanced weaponry such as jet airplanes and rockets, and were particularly interested in the country’s ability to produce synthetic oil.

According to Professor Arnold Krammer, a historian at Texas A&M University, the US Technical Oil Mission to Europe in 1945 was a significant effort to acquire German technology and knowledge, with tons of records being hauled out of bombed-out factories and German scientists being questioned by American officers.

Germany had invested heavily in scientific research to develop a strategic advantage, including the production of synthetic oil, which was crucial due to the country’s lack of petroleum deposits, as noted by Anthony N. Stranges of the Department of History at Texas A&M University.

The Fischer-Tropsch Process and Germany’s Synthetic Fuel Development

The Fischer-Tropsch process, developed by German chemists in the early twentieth century, was a key discovery that explained the origin of oil as a naturally occurring phenomenon and allowed for the production of synthetic oil from coal, which was abundant in Germany.

The development of synthetic oil was essential for Germany’s fuel requirements, which had shifted from coal to gasoline and diesel oil with the increasing use of automobiles, trucks, airplanes, and diesel oil-powered ships, including the country’s navy, and the Fischer-Tropsch process provided a solution to this problem.

The US investigators were interested in acquiring this knowledge and technology, not only to understand Germany’s war efforts but also to gain insight into the production of synthetic oil, which had significant implications for the global oil industry and the understanding of the origin of oil as a natural resource.

The development of the Fischer-Tropsch process by German chemists Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch in the 1920s enabled the production of synthetic gasoline and diesel fuel from coal, which was crucial for powering a competitive national industrial economy and a strong military operation.

The German industrial giant I.G. Farben, with support from the Luftwaffe and the Nazi high command, utilized the Fischer-Tropsch process to produce high-quality aviation fuel, and by 1936, the company was no longer independent but a government-private enterprise.

The Fischer-Tropsch process played a significant role in Nazi Germany’s ability to launch World War II, as the country had fourteen synthetic fuel plants in operation and six more under construction by the time Hitler attacked Poland on September 1, 1939, producing approximately 95 percent of the aviation fuel used by the Luftwaffe.

Synthetic Fuel Production and Its Strategic Importance in WWII

By 1943, Nazi Germany was producing almost three million metric tons of gasoline by hydrogenation of coal, and adding diesel fuel, aviation fuel, and lubricants produced synthetically from coal, the country was able to satisfy up to 75 percent of its fuel demand through coal conversion.

Imperial Japan also adopted the Fischer-Tropsch process, aiming to produce 6.3 million barrels annually of synthetic gasoline and diesel fuel by 1944, but the country’s ambitions were thwarted by the economic demands of waging war, and only fifteen synthetic fuel plants were constructed, reaching peak production of 717,000 barrels in 1944.

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Liberals admit to pushing emissions cap without studying impact on Canadian families

The Liberals are pushing ahead with their oil and gas emissions cap, a production ban in everything but name, while failing to study how it will impact Canadian families.

Conservative MP Arnold Viersen asked the Liberals to spell out the real-world consequences:

  • What will it mean for the price of groceries, gas, and home heating over the next eight years?
  • How many jobs will be lost in the oil and gas sector?
  • What impact will it have on imports from countries with lower environmental and human-rights standards?
  • How will it affect other sectors like construction, manufacturing, finance, and hospitality?
  • And how does Canada compete if global rivals like Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, or the U.S. face no such restrictions?

Instead of answering, Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin pointed to modelling in the Canada Gazette. That “analysis” claimed the cost to families would be “minimal” because energy prices are set internationally, but it gave no breakdowns for household bills. Instead, the government focused on industry stats: oil and gas production is projected to rise 16% with the cap versus 17% without, and labour spending to grow 53% instead of 55% — a 1.6% difference Ottawa is holding up as proof Canadians won’t feel a thing.

The government never studied the effect on families’ wallets. By refusing to account for higher energy costs, job losses, or the knock-on impact on food and housing, Ottawa is leaving Canadians in the dark about how much this policy will cost them.

The emissions cap, announced in November 2024, is supposed to cut oil and gas emissions by one-third starting in 2030.

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