Tag: donald trump

Americans Are Spending More Because Everything Costs More

Economists keep pointing to consumer spending as proof that the American economy remains strong. Americans spent 0.9% more in August, and naturally this is being celebrated as the resilient American consumer. But real disposable income did not increase AT ALL, while the personal savings rate fell to just 4.1%. Americans are spending more while their inflation-adjusted income is going nowhere and savings are being depleted to maintain their standard of living.

The cost-of-living crisis is showing up in the numbers. Consumer spending can rise during inflation simply because everything costs more. If your grocery bill rises from $150 to $200, you increased consumer spending by 33%, but you did not become wealthier or eat 33% more food. You simply handed over more dollars for the same necessities.

Personal consumption expenditures increased by $190.8 billion in August while personal income increased only $66.6 billion. Real consumer spending rose 0.6%, but real disposable income was flat. You can maintain that imbalance temporarily by reducing savings or borrowing, but you cannot maintain it forever.

This is what Washington never understands about inflation. They tell people inflation has fallen because the RATE of increase is lower than it was at the peak. That does not mean prices went back down. Consumer prices are roughly 30% higher than at the end of 2019. Something that cost $100 then costs roughly $130 today. Lower inflation merely means prices are rising more slowly from an already elevated level.

This is why consumer confidence can collapse while spending remains strong. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading since 2014. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell to 48.1 and is now 15% below January. People are continuing to spend because they must continue living, but they are increasingly worried about what comes next.

The University of Michigan reports that consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year climbed to 4.6% in September, up from 3.4% in February. Consumers’ assessments of both their current and expected personal finances also deteriorated. The paycheck may still be coming in, but it simply does not stretch as far as it once did. Americans feel the conditions of the economy daily.

Even if inflation fell to 2% tomorrow, today’s elevated price level would remain. Prices would simply continue increasing from that higher base. This is how inflation quietly destroys the middle class. Savings decline, debt rises, homeownership becomes harder, young people delay families, and retirees discover that their savings purchase far less than expected.

The American consumer has kept this economy moving, but there is a limit to how long households can spend faster than their real incomes grow. You cannot raid savings forever, increase credit-card balances forever, or finance your standard of living indefinitely.

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Trump’s Fact-free Diatribe on the Price of Oil. “Strait of Hormuz Misrepresentations”

Another day and another fact-free diatribe by the president of the United States.

Trump went on his Truth Social (where truth is a rare commodity) and said Democrats have closed down the nation’s refinery capacity, and this is the reason diesel and gas prices are skyrocketing.

Here’s what Trump didn’t tell you:

He has triggered closures of major refinery companies.

The recent closures were corporate decisions by refinery owners, not a mandate by Democrats.

LyondellBasell Industries in Houston made a strategic decision to exit refining in March, 2025, eliminating approximately 264,000 barrels a day. (Categorized as among the 10 best in the U.S)

Phillips 66 in Los Angeles closed in October, 2025, citing uncertain long-term sustainability amid changing market conditions, while also reporting high operating costs and low earnings.

The closure removed 139,000 barrels from the market. Valero, in Benicia, California ended refining in 2026, citing high maintenance costs and other business considerations. The corporation produced 145,000 barrels a day.

Valero also mentioned regulatory hurdles in California, where the are unusually stringent fuel, environmental, emissions, and operating requirements. However, it is not accurate to claim that Democrats or California’s governor ordered these refineries closed, or that regulations in the state are responsible for the fuel crisis in the rest of the country.

The 2025 shutdowns at the LyondellBasell Houston and Phillips 66 Los Angeles refineries cut total US refining capacity by about 400,000 barrels per day. Because the two California closures eliminated roughly 17% of California’s capacity, their impact is concentrated on West Coast fuel supply and prices rather than the broader US market.

It’s correct to say Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries affect global energy markets. During his first term, Trump approved the first US provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine, notably Javelin anti-tank missiles. In 2018 and 2019, the United States notified Congress of sales totaling 360 Javelins, plus launchers, training, and related equipment. In other words, US foreign policy, under both Biden and Trump, is responsible for the current crisis.

Diesel and heating oil account for nearly 30% of global petroleum use, with about one-quarter of this supply moving across borders. When Russian refinery exports drop, the impact extends beyond Europe, resulting in rising costs in transport, farming, construction, freight, and heating, all of which contribute to wider inflation.

The Trump administration is responsible for raising oil prices by continuing the war against Iran.

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Trump visits Baltimore County, showcasing $3.7B investment led by Anduril Industries to strengthen U.S. naval fleet

In a major defense manufacturing expansion, President Donald Trump visited Sparrows Point in Baltimore County, Maryland, on Tuesday to showcase a $3.7 billion investment led by defense technology firm Anduril Industries, aimed at strengthening the nation’s naval fleet.

The public-private initiative centers on establishing a state-of-the-art “software-defined” manufacturing facility, known as Arsenal-2, on the historic grounds of the former Bethlehem Steel site at Tradepoint Atlantic.

The new complex is designed to bolster submarine production by deploying advanced digital assembly tools, modern manufacturing automation and high-tech software workflows — alongside skilled industrial labor.

The high-tech shipyard will focus primarily on fabricating key structural assemblies and gating hardware for the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered attack submarines, specifically targeting critical bottlenecks in the production of Virginia-class vessels.

Administration officials highlighted that producing complex components — such as torpedo tube assemblies and pressure hull segments — at the Baltimore site will relieve existing capacity constraints across defense supply chains, effectively providing up to nine million hours of annual labor capacity and boosting nationwide Virginia-class submarine production by an estimated 15%.

The facility will scale gradually, beginning with vital submersion-safe structural components before expanding toward more complex sub-assemblies as quality standards are met.

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DOJ Moves to Strip Citizenship from Criminals in ‘Largest Denaturalization Effort in Modern History’

The Department of Justice announced on Monday that it had filed denaturalization actions against 40 people accused of serious crimes or acting as agents for foreign governments.

The actions were filed in various U.S. district courts, with one individual being accused of committing aggravated sodomy against a special needs man, according to a Justice Department news release.

The DOJ’s Office of Public Affairs said the complaints, filed between Aug. 21 and Oct. 2, 2026, amount to “the largest volume of complaints submitted in a single period under the Trump administration.”

“Under the Immigration and Nationality Act, a naturalized U.S. citizen’s citizenship may be revoked, and certificate of naturalization canceled, if the naturalization was illegally procured or procured by concealment of a material fact or by willful misrepresentation,” the release noted.

Attorney General Todd Blanche said, “Today’s announcement marks the largest denaturalization effort in modern history.”

“From an individual convicted of espionage to others convicted of sexual offenses against minors, these defendants concealed critical facts from the U.S. government and represent serious criminal offenders,” he continued.

Blanche added, “Under President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Justice will continue to employ the denaturalization process to maintain our national security and protect the American people.”

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The Donald’s Quixote Is Tilting at Iranian Windmills

Treasury Secy Scott Bessent clearly endeavors to be the second Pete Hegseth of Trump World, albeit via packing heat in the form of economic missiles rather than the kinetic kind.

In fact, however, his ballyhooed Operation Economic Outcast actually amounts to the greatest windmill tilting operations since Don Quixote himself.

So let’s cut to the chase right up front. To wit, Bessent’s premise that he can switch-off Iran’s military payroll and bring the regime to its knees by driving its oil exports to zero is wholly delusionary. The former (regime collapse) does not remotely follow from the latter (oil exports at zero), which for all practical purposes has already happened.

So herein we endeavor to explain why cutting off Iran’s oil exports isn’t any kind of war-winning silver bullet at all.

Nevertheless, on October 3rd the Treasury Secretary claimed that—

“They are isolating them economically like this never happened before. You know, right now, the score: barrels out of the Strait: U.S. about 1.1 billion, Iran zero,” Bessent told Allen.

Bessent continued, “For the first time in history, they, since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week. They will have no revenue.”

This bombast, of course, was just a continuation of the claim he made a six weeks earlier upon the launch of Operation Economic Outcast:

Beginning today, the actions of Treasury and other agencies will tighten the noose and block every potential source of revenue that funds the IRGC and the Iranian regime… to the ordinary soldiers supporting this regime: as more and more of your paychecks stop or are supposedly “just delayed,” ask whether your commanders are leading your country to triumph or to ruin.

In short, the Bessent plan purports to “defund” the IRGC by closing the black market space where enablers buy the purportedly “illegal” Iranian oil. Thereafter per the Bessent formula, the Iranian regime’s military will be left financially high and dry as:

  • oil loadings go to zero,
  • export FX earnings go to zero,
  • the Iranian war machine stops getting paid,
  • the regime is forced to surrender or flee.

But that purported mechanism is but an illusory windmill. That’s because a regime that can still collect domestic taxes, pursue essential trade via overland routes, and, most importantly, print Iranian rials at will can keep a military payroll running long after the oil account has been bled dry.

That is to say, the military payroll does not remotely depend upon the oil export account. It is a small, prioritized claim on overall domestic product (GDP), and the arithmetic below is why zero oil export loadings do not zero it out.

We therefore start with a tally of Iran’s standing military force and the resulting payroll cost at current rates. It consists of about 880,000 active full-time soldiers, in four blocks.

These include the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) proper at about 170,000, including the ultra vicious Quds Force that sits inside that total at 5,000 to 15,000. The internal paramilitary force known as the Basij adds another 90,000.

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Caretakers or Conquerers?

When President Trump’s Republican acolytes primaried long-time US Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) and defeated him in the most expensive Congressional primary race in history (about $30 million) in May, pundits offered their assumptions and agendas.

The Trumpites said he wasn’t nice playing their ball game (I’m being diplomatic) and therefore deserved to be sidelined. They couldn’t abide a rogue Republican, even if he did vote with the president 92 percent of the time. Opposing the war in Iran was over the top.

Massie matched the Trumpites dollar for dollar in the campaign because as heir to the Ron Paul movement, he has many friends beyond his rural Congressional district. They supported him in this toe-to-toe duel, grateful for a champion who dared to question mainstream narratives.

These narratives, as it turns out, are many and his district has supported him on maverick positions in the past. He opposed virtually everything Dr. Anthony Fauci said. He opposed lockdowns. He opposed mandatory mRNA jabs. He opposed the inflationary Covid relief bill. All of this was tolerated and applauded by the majority of his constituents.

But daring to question obliterating the Persians (Iran) without constitutionally-mandated Congressional approval was too much and his country boys and girls turned him out. Why was the anti-war position intolerable?

For the answer, I’ll go back 30 years when organic farming was in its infancy. As a nonchemical farmer, I was in the vanguard of this movement and privy to the early arguments pitting compost against chemicals. As a country boy farmer myself, I have many friends and relatives in the chemicals-will-save-us camp.

As the arguments between the compost-vs-chemical camps became more defined, I noticed a profound philosophical difference. As with most altercations, it takes awhile for the two sides to get to the nub of their disagreement. Over time, ancillary things give way to the core issue.

In the compost-vs-chemical debate, the core issue was nurturing versus conquering. The chemical folks argued that they needed to conquer the weeds, weather, and worms. My compost-loving group diametrically opposed the Conquistador approach and argued that the goal was nurturing, promoting plant diversity, appreciating weather limitations, and loving earthworms.

The difference in approach moved me to develop a five-minute theatrical gig titled “Organic Farmers are Sissies.” I riffed on this masculine, macho mentality to conquer with chemicals rather than coming alongside natural patterns as a masseuse. It generated a lot of laughs in the organic farming community while pinpointing the nub of the philosophical difference.

“Men want to feel pig iron under their thighs. They want to come into the house smelling like diesel and grease so their wives can swoon ‘what a man.’ It’s just not manly to come in and explain to your beloved ‘I’ve made the cows happy. That’s just not manly.” This was all part of my act.

What made it funny was the truth underlying it. What does that have to do with Massie’s rejection? I believe the American country-boy mystique is wrapped up in conquering things. Trump enjoys overwhelming support in rural America. Country folks like to fight. Hatfields and McCoys. 

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Trump’s Other War

As the midterm election draws near, a number of Republicans in tough races are distancing themselves from President Trump’s war. The war is unpopular because it has inflicted economic pain on the already-suffering American people.

No, I am not talking about the Iran War. I am talking about President Trump’s tariff war.

The Tax Foundation estimates that, since he returned to the White House, President Trump has imposed tariffs on about 54 percent of imported goods.

Contrary to the claims of power-hungry politicians and corporatists seeking protection from overseas competitors, the financial burden of tariffs falls on American businesses and consumers, not foreign exporters. Tariffs are a tax on Americans.

President Trump’s tariffs have been estimated to impose an over 800 dollars tax on the average American household this year.

Tariff defenders claim tariffs boost domestic industries, thus strengthening the US economy. The truth is, while tariffs may benefit some industries that have major competition from abroad, tariffs harm American businesses, like farms, that rely on exports for a substantial share of revenue. Additionally, countries often respond to increased tariffs on goods exported to the US by raising tariffs on imports from the US.

High tariffs also hurt businesses that rely on importing raw materials and parts necessary to make their products.

According to a survey of 4,150 registered voters conducted by the Cato Institute and Morning Consult, 74 percent of Americans view tariffs as a factor in the price increases that continue to bedevil American families, while 53 percent of Americans understand that tariffs weaken the US economy.

The survey’s most disheartening result — at least for President Trump and Republicans preparing to face the voters in less than a month — is that 49 percent of Americans say President Trump’s tariffs have made their lives worse.

President Trump launched his tariff war without receiving approval from Congress, even though Article One of the Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power “to lay and collect” taxes. In order to get around the Constitution, President Trump claimed that federal laws giving the president emergency powers give him the authority to impose tariffs and thus increase taxes on the American people.

President Trump’s claim regarding his authority to impose tariffs without authorization from Congress was struck down by the Supreme Court. Then, instead of taking the opportunity the court gave him to end his tariff war, President Trump simply found new justifications to impose tariffs.

One of President Trump’s latest tariff targets is Canada. The Canadian government responded to President Trump’s tariffs by imposing tariffs on US goods. President Trump then responded by forbidding the importation of a long list of Canadian goods. Once again President Trump acted without getting authorization from Congress.

President Trump’s tariffs have raised prices for American consumers, increased production costs for many American businesses that rely on imported materials and goods, and hurt farmers and other export-reliant business.

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Trump Wants to Give $90 to Seniors and $76 Billion to Health Insurers

With less than a month from the midterm elections, President Trump announced that more than 20 million seniors would get a payment of “nearly $100” to help with their Medicare Part B premiums. The White House later said the actual amount of the one-time payment is $90 and will come from the Medicare Improvement Fund which was created in 2008 to improve traditional Medicare. The White House says it holds about $2 billion.

Congress had been planning to tap the fund later this year to help finance a modest Medicare pay increase for doctors and extend several health programs, including funding for community health centers and bonuses for doctors participating in certain alternative payment models. With the fund now being used for the $90 payments, lawmakers will have to find the money elsewhere or put those plans on hold.

Money is money and I am all for helping American seniors with their medical bills, but $90 won’t cover even half of one month’s premium. After a record increase this year, the standard Part B premium is $202.90

But what’s not in the announcement is far more important than what’s in it: Neither Trump nor CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has said a word about clawing back the tens of billions of dollars Medicare overpays private insurers every year. Neither did any administration before them, at least not in a way that stuck. In 2026 alone, the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) estimates Medicare will pay Medicare Advantage plans $76 billion more than it would spend on the same people in traditional Medicare.

So the $2 billion Trump plans to hand out is less than 3% of what insurers will collect in excess payments this year.

If the $76 billion troubles you then the bigger picture is going to be truly startling. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that if nothing changes, overpayments will total about $1.2 trillion through 2035. That is all money that big insurance companies like UnitedHealthcare, Aetna and Humana get to keep. And it’s money that they don’t want to give up – again with taxpayers being stuck with the bill.

And seniors themselves pay part of that bill. CRFB estimates Medicare Advantage overpayments will add $230 billion to Part B premiums over the next decade. Those higher premiums are paid by everyone enrolled in Part B, including seniors in traditional Medicare who never signed up for a private Medicare Advantage plan.

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Trump’s Repeal of Roadless Rule Would Declare Open Season on Protected Forests

n August 18, Donald Trump’s United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) officially proposed eliminating the national Roadless Rule. If finalized, the repeal would strip protections from 44.7 million acres of wild intact forest.

The rule, passed in 2001, protects in total 58 million acres of forest from road building, logging, fossil fuel extraction, and other development. Forests in Idaho and Colorado, which have their own state roadless laws, would be exempt, at least for now.

The USDA, which oversees the U.S. Forest Service, initially gave the public only 30 days to comment on the plan. They were forced after public pressure to allow 15 additional days, until October 6. Opponents are aiming to mobilize 1 million public comments during this short period, as well as sponsoring public events speaking out against the repeal.

One hundred and eighty environmental, conservation, and citizen’s groups have been joined by tribes, sportsmen, wildland firefighters, and businesses dedicated to tourism, in submitting a joint public comment or otherwise speaking out against this decision. A letter in support of the Roadless Rule and opposing recission has been signed by 164 congressional representatives.

The recission is “the largest evisceration of public lands protection in American history,” according to Randi Spivak, public lands policy director at the Center for Biological Diversity. Spivak told Truthout the Roadless Rule shelters “hundreds of threatened and endangered species. It provides incredible recreation opportunities — hunting, fishing, hiking. These were really the last of the forests outside of wilderness that had not been opened up to industrial development.”

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Trump’s Big Bluff on Iran

The Trump administration and its supporters – including the Wall Street Journal editorial page – are working overtime these days to spin the news around the Iran war to make it appear that the US is winning and Tehran had better submit to Washington’s demands before it is wrecked, maybe even “annihilated.” Indeed, Trump is preparing the option of bringing the military hammer down on Iran after the midterm elections if Tehran has not surrendered by then.

In effect, Trump and his supporters are waging a “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran in the mainstream media.

This campaign is sure to fail. If anything, it reflects the Trump administration’s desperation. The president started a war the United States was bound to lose, and there is little he can do now to change that basic fact.

Trump’s propaganda campaign has two dimensions – one economic and the other military.

First, the administration argues that Iran is being economically strangled by the US naval blockade coupled with Operation Economic Outcast, the strategy announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on 24 August 2026. At the same time, it maintains that oil is once again flowing out of the Gulf at rates not far below those that prevailed on 27 February 2026. The implications are obvious: the economic punishment being inflicted on Iran will force it to capitulate soon, while the US economy – and the international community more generally – is well on its way to recovery.

Second, the US is now building up its military forces for a massive military strike after the mid-term elections, when Trump will be free of electoral constraints. This growing threat of a devastating US attack, coupled with the economic pain being inflicted on Iran, is designed to get Tehran to quit now, before its situation becomes even worse.

There are huge problems with this strategy. It sounds persuasive when the mainstream media dutifully purveys it, but it falls apart when one looks closely at what is actually happening.

Consider the military dimension. The headlines say the US is sending 10,000 additional troops and a third aircraft carrier – the USS Theodore Roosevelt – to the Persian Gulf region, creating the impression that Iran will soon be confronting three American carriers. Moreover, the additional troops – on top of the roughly 50,000 US troops already in the region – are portrayed as evidence that Trump is seriously considering putting boots on the ground.

The aircraft carrier story, however, is quite different from what the headlines suggest. The Roosevelt is reportedly being sent to replace the USS George Washington, while the supposed third carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, has already left the Middle East and is now in Thailand. Thus, there is presently only one carrier in the region. Indeed, this is the first time during the war that the US has only one carrier in the Middle East, and it is difficult to imagine that there will be more than two – if even that many – after the midterm elections.

The larger problem is that the Iran war is severely straining the US Navy. Its senior leaders warn that the current operational tempo is not sustainable indefinitely. Carriers and other warships are being rotated through extremely long deployments, which cause significant maintenance and readiness problems that will have to be addressed at some point. This problem is compounded by the fact that US ships have lost access to nearby logistics facilities and increasingly depend on a supply chain that reaches back to Diego Garcia, which is about 2,500 miles from the Persian Gulf.

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