Tag: stock market

Oil trader pockets reported $125 mn on suspiciously well-timed Iran bet – media

A massive crude oil bet placed shortly before reports of a possible US-Iran peace deal sent prices crashing and fueled suspicion of insider trading, after the position reportedly generated a $125 million profit in just over an hour.

According to market commentary platform the Kobeissi Letter, nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts were placed around 3:40 AM (07:40 GMT) on Wednesday “without any major news,” describing the roughly $920 million position as unusually large for that time of day.

At 4:50 AM, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement to end the conflict and resume negotiations. Oil prices plunged more than 12% within two hours of the report, turning the short position into an estimated $125 million profit before the price later rebounded, the platform said.

During the US-Israeli war against Iran, prediction and traditional financial markets were flooded with suspiciously well-timed bets linked to airstrikes, ceasefire announcements, and diplomatic developments.

According to The Guardian, traders placed more than $1 billion in seemingly prescient wagers, including an $850,000 bet shortly before US strikes against Iran and around $950 million in oil futures hours before Trump announced a ceasefire in April. AP reported that the ceasefire announcement alone generated more than 413 million predictions and over $100 million in wagers across prediction markets within days.

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DOJ Investigating Suspicious Iran War Oil Trading Trend: Report

Ups and downs in the war with Iran may have been an opportunity for insiders betting on oil prices to make a killing, according to a new report.

The report from ABC News said the Department of Justice is taking a close look at several oil market trades that came just before critical moments in the war with Iran.

In four transactions under review, the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are examining trades that netted more than $2.6 billion to individuals who bet oil prices would drop immediately before they did so.

From the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, the oil market has been up and down depending upon Iran’s strategy, America’s response, and expectations that oil might again flow freely.

The London Stock Exchange Group highlighted the trades, which began on March 23, when 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced a delay on attacks against Iranian infrastructure, a $500 million bet was placed that oil prices would dip.

On April 7, only hours ahead of Trump’s announcement of a temporary halt in hostilities, a $960 million bet was placed that oil prices would fall.

On April 17, 20 minutes before Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, a $760 million bet was placed that oil prices were going to drop.

On April 21, 15 minutes before the ceasefire was extended, $430 million worth of bets was placed predicting oil prices were going down.

The Guardian noted last month that the conflict has been accompanied by unprecedented betting on events through online betting platforms, with many bets being precisely timed to events in the war.

For example, according to one complaint before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, six so-called insiders reaped $1.2 million from betting when former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be killed.

Reining this in through legislation is a complex task, if it can be done at all, one expert said.

“Is the problem that we don’t have legislation or that we don’t have enforcement capabilities?” Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University, said.

“To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse,” he said.

The oil price bets appear suspicious, another expert said.

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Prediction Market Suspends and Fines Two Democrats and One GOP Candidate Over Insider Trading

These political candidates got caught red-handed.

Prediction market Kalshi announced in a press release that two Democrat candidates and one Republican candidate have been suspended and fined after engaging in insider trading on the platform.

According to the press release, the political candidates placed prediction trades on the outcomes of their own elections.

NBC News reported that Mark Moran, a Democrat running for a U.S. Senate seat in Virginia, Matt Klein, a Democrat running for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, and Republican Ezekiel Enriquez, who previously ran in the Republican primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District, have all been fined and suspended by Kalshi.

Per NBC News:

Prediction market Kalshi said Wednesday that it had fined and suspended three political candidates for trading on their own races during primary campaigns.

“Just like in traditional financial markets, bad actors will try to cheat,” Kalshi said in a statement. “These three cases are an example of how developing proactive engineering solutions can help identify illicit trading activity.”

Kalshi described the actions taken by the politicians as “political insider trading.”

The fines ranged from $539 to more than $6,200, while the suspensions from Kalshi are set to last five years.

The candidates include Matt Klein, who is running in the Democratic primary for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District; Ezekiel Enriquez, who ran in the Republican primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District; and Mark Moran, who is running in the Democratic primary for a U.S. Senate seat in Virginia.

Previously, Kalshi did not fine or suspend candidates betting on their own campaigns, but after Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, introduced the “Prediction Markets are Gambling Act,” the company reversed course.

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White House Warns Staff Against Insider Trading Using Iran War Information

As recent geopolitical events shake financial markets, some traders are making risky bets to profit from the volatility.

In an email on March 24, the White House warned staff not to trade or place bets related to the U.S. war in Iran, including on prediction markets.

The warning aimed to prevent any misuse of confidential information, the White House told The Epoch Times.

“President [Donald] Trump has been crystal clear: while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,” Davis Ingle, White House spokesman, said in an email.

The warning was in line with government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for trading activity, he said.

Ingles added that “any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”

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US stock markets fall, oil soars as Trump promises to bomb Iran ‘back to the stone age’

The value of US stock markets fell, while the price of oil soared in early trading on 2 April following US President Donald Trump’s speech in which he vowed to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age.”

The president said on Wednesday evening from the White House that the US would continue its bombing campaign on Iran “until our objectives are fully achieved,” suggesting the war will last longer than expected.

“I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly. We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks – we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” Trump vowed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell some 1.3 percent when the US stock market opened the following morning. The S&P 500 index was also down 1.3 percent, while the Nasdaq composite was down 1.7 percent. Much of the losses were recovered over the course of the trading day.

Oil prices rose sharply and remained high throughout the day. The price of US crude rose to $113 – a 13 percent gain.

Brent crude, the international baseline, rose more than eight percent, to $109 per barrel.

US stock markets rallied, and the price of oil fell to start the week, after Trump stated on Sunday he was having “serious discussions” with a “new and more reasonable regime in Tehran.”

But the price of oil has risen following Trump’s remarks, which underscored that the war will not end soon and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed indefinitely.

Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on 28 February, the strategic waterway has effectively remained closed due to the threat of Iranian attacks and soaring insurance premiums for vessels wishing to transit it.

Energy prices have since skyrocketed, as Gulf oil exports through the strait have ground to a halt.

During his Wednesday address, Trump expressed no urgency in opening Hormuz, instead criticizing European nations suffering from fuel shortages for refusing to send their own warships to reopen it.

“To those countries that can’t get fuel – many of which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves – I have a suggestion,” he said.

“Number one, buy oil from the United States of America; we have plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed courage … Go to the strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done.”

Trump claimed that Hormuz would likely “just open up naturally” at the close of the war.

He called rising gas prices in the US a “short-term” matter, while claiming “the United States has never been better prepared economically to confront this threat.”

Regarding Trump’s threats, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said Thursday that Tehran has “no choice but to fight back strongly.”

“We will not tolerate this vicious cycle of war, negotiations, ceasefire, and then repeating the same pattern,” he said in a statement reported by state media. “This is catastrophic not only for Iran, but for the entire region and beyond.”

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$580 million in oil bets placed moments before Trump’s Iran post – FT 

Oil traders placed more than half a billion dollars in bets minutes before US President Donald Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran on Monday, the Financial Times has reported.

A burst of activity followed by a sharp price drop has raised questions about possible advance knowledge among market participants.

About 6,200 Brent and WTI futures contracts changed hands between 6:49 AM and 6:50 AM in New York – a one-minute flurry worth $580 million, based on FT calculations using Bloomberg data. Volumes in both benchmarks – Brent and US West Texas Intermediate – spiked simultaneously, about 27 seconds before 6:50 AM, while S&P 500 futures surged shortly after.

The trades came roughly 15 minutes before Trump said on Truth Social there had been “productive conversations” with Tehran to end the war in Iran.

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Pelosi Loses It – Starts Chomping Her Dentures After Trump Calls Her Out for Insider Trading

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi was caught on camera playing with her dentures on Tuesday after President Trump called her out for insider trading during his SOTU Address.

President Trump roasted Democrats during his State of the Union Address for standing up against insider trading.

Trump called out crooked Nancy Pelosi: “Did Nancy Pelosi stand up for this?

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Vaccine Stocks Drop After FDA Memo Links COVID Shots To Child Deaths

Vaccine stocks slumped Monday after an explosive memo from FDA vaccine chief Vinay Prasad surfaced late Friday, signaling the agency is preparing to roll out tough restrictions on new vaccines for children. Prasad described a “profound revelation” linking Covid shots to at least ten deaths in children. 

By late morning, Vaccine makers dropped on the memo: Moderna -6%, BioNTech -4.3%, Novavax -4%, Vaxcyte -6.6%.

Wall Street analysts weighed in on the memo, and all agreed it introduces a new regulatory overhang for vaccine stocks.

Here’s what the research desks told clients:

William Blair, Myles R. Minter (rates the MRNA market perform)

  • “Our interpretation of the memo is that CBER will focus its efforts on the younger 12- to 24-year-old male population for newly approved Covid-19 vaccines where the myocarditis risk is highest”
  • If new regulatory restrictions were to be implemented in the higher myocarditis risk population, analysts see further headwinds toward Moderna’s declining Covid-19 franchise “alongside further negative sentiment that this memo and subsequent actions may generate”
  • Analyst says Pfizer, BioNTech, Novavax and Sanofi could also be impacted
  • “The memo also indicates several upcoming reforms to the CBER vaccine regulatory pathway, most notably the “demand” for pre- market randomized trials assessing clinical endpoints, not just immunogenicity, for most new vaccine products”

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Nancy Pelosi’s Stock Market Return Rate During Her Time in Congress is INSANE

Nancy Pelosi is finally retiring from congress and she is doing so as an extremely wealthy woman.

During her 40 years in congress, her stock market return rate was 16,930 percent. Read that again. 16,930%

That is beyond stunning. People can spend their entire career working on Wall Street and not get that kind of return. It’s just the sort of thing that has spurred rumors of insider trading, and/or taking advantage of information gleaned by working in congress.

Pelosi is now worth over $280 million dollars. Not a bad haul for a public servant.

FOX News reports:

Pelosi earned more than $130 million in stock profits, return of 16,930%, during time in Congress: report

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and husband Paul Pelosi have raked in more than $130 million in stock profits over the course of her congressional career, a report said.

That’s a return of 16,930% over nearly four decades representing California, according to the New York Post.

The figure comes as Pelosi, 85, announced this week she will not be seeking re-election after completing her current term in 2027…

Before entering office in 1987, Pelosi and her husband reported between $610,000 and $785,000 in stocks in their portfolio, the Post said, citing a financial disclosure form.

Those stocks reportedly included Citibank and companies that are no longer publicly traded.

Over time, that portfolio has soared in value to $133.7 million today, the Post reported, citing estimates from Quiver Quantitative.

The newspaper said the profit of 16,930% exceeds the 2,300% that the Dow Jones had during the same time period.

Pelosi’s talents for investing are really unmatched, aren’t they?

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Report: Far-left Dem Crockett Didn’t Report Stocks As Required

U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, the far-left, foul-mouthed Democrat from Texas, might have violated House rules by not disclosing her stock portfolio.

The Washington Free Beacon disclosed the possible violation today. Crockett “owned stocks in at least 25 companies that she did not disclose to the public during her first congressional run in 2022, even though she’d quietly admitted to the holdings the previous year as a Texas state legislator,” the website reported. Nor did she disclose the holdings when she landed in Congress in 2023.

The records reveal Crockett to be something of a hypocrite. She doesn’t believe the sinistral nonsense she spews like a firehose.

The Stocks

Indeed, Crockett is quite the Wall Street tycoon, the report shows.

“The records obtained by the Free Beacon open a window into the personal financial life of Crockett, 44, who says she supports herself,” the website reported:

“I have no husband, y’all. Never been married, never been engaged” she told an interviewer in February, holding up her hands to emphasize the absence of a ring.

She holds stocks in companies that can gain from her position in Congress, and “and others that stand in opposition to the image she’s cultivated as a champion of green energy.”

Crockett’s holdings during 2021 were “sizable,” the website reported. She owned shares in Big Tech, Energy, and Pharma, along with shares in the auto and marijuana sectors. She “did not disclose owning any of those same stocks in her first congressional financial disclosure, which also covered her financial holdings during the 2021 calendar year.”

Crockett’s array of blue-chip and other stocks is impressive. They include “Amazon, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, General Motors, Uber, DuPont, ExxonMobil, American Airlines, AT&T, Aurora Cannabis, Ford, and ‘Corporate Cannabis’ and ‘Stocks Worldwide.’”

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