The Hard Math Of Big Wars

In spite of the rough lessons on the importance of mass in the Korean and Vietnam Wars in the second half of the 20th Century—and even the cold bucket of sand thrown in our face about what is required for even heavy imperial policing like we had in Iraq and Afghanistan at the end of the first decade of this century—a large segment of the national security nomenklatura was content with boutique-levels of warstocks in our relatively shallow magazines.

We’ve discussed this here and at the OG Blog for a long time, as have others, but until recently the need to purchase and stockpile the weapons we know we will need in the big fight—heck, like we’ve seen in Iran recently, even for extended punitive expeditions—simply has not been getting the support it needs.

It is nice to at last see a shift, but let’s not celebrate it until we understand how we got here. If we don’t have a good understanding why we forgot the need for the magazine depth that is inefficient in peacetime but essential in war, then we are condemned to repeat it when the immediacy of the crisis starts to fade and the accountants, backed by hucksters selling sketchy theories, start clawing back supremacy in the argument.

Generations have grown to positions of power in our defense establishment riding on their success of selling the shallowness of our magazines as a reflection of modern natsec theory.

It started before the guns from WWII were even cold.

Most famous was the nuclear club that convinced everyone, because they were the Smartest People in the Room™, that ‘war was new’ and that they knew that the future was nuclear. No need for large navies, armies, or tactical air forces taking up space with ‘old think’. No. Nuclear war will either be the new normal, or would prevent wars from happening at all.

Oops.

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U.N. Atomic Energy Chief Rafael Grossi Blasts Agency for Irrelevance: ‘Absent’ from World Conflicts

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, lamented in remarks on Thursday that the United Nations, of which the IAEA is part, has been “absent” from the world’s greatest conflicts.

Grossi made the remarks during an event in London, within the context of his candidate to run the United Nations. The term of current Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expiring this year, prompting the somewhat convoluted and backdoor process of various successor candidates making their pitches to the body. First, the Security Council, the most powerful body of the U.N., nominates a candidate, whom the General Assembly then confirms. The United Nations has officially approved five candidates for secretary-general this year. Grossi’s closest competition is believed to be Michelle Bachelet, the socialist former president of Chile and apologist for the Uyghur genocide in China, along with Maria Fernanda Espinosa, the former president of the General Assembly.

Grossi has been on the front lines of two of the most high-profile conflicts in the world today: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where the IAEA has advocated for the protection of various nuclear sites in the war theater; and the conflict between Iran and America. The IAEA, under Grossi’s leadership, condemned Iran for violating international law in 2025 for the first time in two decades, which led to the U.S. military taking action against three of Iran’s largest nuclear sites last year. Iran and America continue in conflict today under an ongoing ceasefire, and are reported to be negotiating a peace agreement that Washington insists must result in the long-term dissolution of any Iranian illicit nuclear development.

In his remarks on Thursday, Grossi mentioned these two conflicts, as well as ongoing civil war in Sudan and Israel’s conflicts with neighboring parties.

“Interstate war has returned after many years here in Europe but also in Africa and many other places,” he noted, according to the Emirati newspaper The National. “The UN is absent from the management or resolution of any of the conflicts I have just mentioned. It needn’t be so.”

“It’s not going to happen unless we do something differently,” he continued. “It is only going to happen when there is a conviction in leaders, in belligerent nations, that the participation of the U.N., and in particular the SG, is going to facilitate a better outcome than what they are having.”

Grossi added that he believed it was “possible” for the United Nations to be a relevant party in these conflicts because of his personal experience running the IAEA. He also reported lay the blame of the U.N.’s inability to act in a timely and impactful manner on the size of its bureaucracy, outsourcing jobs he said should belong to the secretary-general to a host of “special rapporteurs” and other officials. He suggested that he would shut down several special rapporteur offices if he was chosen to run the United Nations.

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Lukashenko Offers To Meet With Zelensky ‘Anywhere’ After Russia Sent Belarus More Tactical Nukes

We reported earlier this week that for the first time Russia’s ‘Union State’ ally Belarus hosted multi-day drills involving a “rehearsal” of Russia’s use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

The exercise ran from Tuesday to Thursday and was presided over by Presidents Lukashenko and Putin, and saw hundreds of Russian missile launchers, warships, nuclear submarines, and jets deploy and engage in military maneuvers. As part of it, Russia reportedly sent more tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

On the occasion, and amid angry denunciations from European leaders, the 71-year-old Lukashenko – who has ruled the former Soviet nation since 1994 – asserted that “We threaten absolutely no one.”

He followed with: “But we have such weapons, and we’re ready in every possible way to defend our common fatherland from [the western Belarusian city of] Brest to [Russia’s Pacific port of] Vladivostok.”

In Ukraine, President Zelensky warned Belarus of “consequences” over potential deepened involvement in Russia’s ‘special military operation’ – though Belarus did act as a staging ground for the initial attack waves in early 2022.

“The de facto leadership of Belarus” must “stay on its toes – that is, clearly understand that there will be consequences if aggressive actions against Ukraine, against our people, are taken,” Zelensky said while making a visit this week to a Ukrainian city which is just dozens of miles from the Belarusian border.

Interestingly, and in what appears another first, Lukashenko actually offered to meet with Zelensky, and that this meeting could take place “anywhere” in Belarus or Ukraine.

“If (Zelensky) wants to discuss something, seek advice, or anything else, please do. We are open to it,” Lukashenka said on Friday, according to state media.

“I am ready to meet with him anywhere – in Ukraine, in Belarus – and discuss the problems of Belarusian-Ukrainian relations,” the Belarusian leader emphasized. 

He also addressed Zelensky’s latest accusations, rejecting the premise, and explained that his armed forces won’t join the conflict unless “aggression is committed against (Belarusian) territory.”

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18 U.S. Intel Agencies Said Iran Wasn’t Building a Nuke; CIA Concluded Iran Could Hold Out for Months

All 18 U.S. intelligence agencies had concluded that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and would retaliate against U.S. bases across the Middle East if the U.S. attacked the country, former U.S. counterterrorism chief Joe Kent reported today.

The agencies also knew that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, Kent reported on X. 

The report from Kent — who quit his post due to the war on behalf of Israel — included a story from The Washington Post about a CIA analysis explaining that Iran could withstand American-Israeli attacks for months without suffering severe economic hardship.

Kent also challenged Post columnist Marc Thiessen, who thinks Trump should continue the war.

A former Green Beret and combat veteran, Kent has opposed the war from the beginning. He has said the U.S. must end aid to Israel and stop fighting its wars. One reason: The stated purpose of the war, that Iran would soon build a nuclear weapon, was bogus.

“One of the many tragedies of this war is that before the war began the U.S. Intel Community [IC], including CIA, was in agreement that Iran wasn’t developing a nuclear weapon & that Iran would target U.S. bases in the region & shut down the Strait of Hormuz if they were attacked by Israel & the U.S.,” Kent wrote:

The IC also properly assessed that targeting the Iranian leadership would strengthen the regime and embolden the hardliners. 

Despite the professionalism & accuracy of the IC, the narrative & agenda spun by a foreign government — Israel, won the argument & forced us into this war. 

We need to understand exactly how this happened to ensure we are never put in this position again.

Kent’s post affirms the report in The New York Times that Trump unwisely listened to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims that defeating Iran would be a cinch. Indeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Netanyahu’s presentation to Trump in the White House Situation Room in February “bullsh*t” after CIA chief John Ratcliffe — citing an intelligence analysis of Netanyahu’s claims — called them “farcical” and “detached from reality.” 

Nonetheless, Trump went ahead.

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Iran Has Nuclear Energy, Not Nuclear Weapons

Last week, on May 5, 2026, President Trump told a group of young children in the Oval Office that “we have to make a journey down to Iran to take the nuclear weapon. They would have had a nuclear weapon within two weeks.”

Trump also told the children, “Iran with a nuclear weapon…maybe we wouldn’t all be here right now… I can tell you, the Middle East would have been gone. Israel would have been gone. And they would have trained their sights on Europe, first, and then us.”

According to the White House website, Trump warned Iran against having nuclear weapons on 74 occasions prior to the war.  Since the war began on February 28, 2026, Trump has discussed Iranian nuclear issues in at least 20 documented public appearances, based on the Senate Democrats’ Trump transcript archive and Roll Call’s Factbase transcript database.

Some of Trump’s more pointed claims:

About six weeks into the current war, on April 16, 2026, Trump said Iran “would have had a nuclear weapon within one month” if the U.S. had not used B-2 bombers to strike Iranian civilian nuclear energy facilities during the June 2025 war on Iran.

About one month after the war began, Trump said on March 27, 2026, “the Iranian lunatics refused to cease their pursuit of nuclear weapons” after the June 2025 war.

And on February 24, 2026, just four days before starting the current war in Iran, Trump said that Iran was “warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program, and in particular nuclear weapons, yet they continue. They’re starting it all over…”.

Trump’s statements go beyond saying ‘Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.’ He has repeatedly claimed that Iran was weeks away from having one, that U.S. strikes stopped Iran from obtaining one, and that Iran was trying to rebuild or continue a nuclear weapons program.

But Trump’s claims are not supported by the record. In fact, official statements from U.S. intelligence, the State Department, the IAEA, and others state that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, is not currently building one, and does not seek to build one.

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Kim Jong Un Creates Ultimate Deadman Switch: North Korea To Auto-Launch Nukes If Assassinated

North Korea just casually revised its constitution to automatically launch a nuclear strike if leader Kim Jong Un is assassinated, or if the country’s nuclear command-and-control system is placed in danger by hostile forces’ attacks. 

The change was adopted during the first session of the 15th Supreme People’s Assembly in Pyongyang on March 22 and was disclosed this week by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, which briefed senior officials on the details.

The updated Article 3 of North Korea’s nuclear policy law states: “If the command-and-control system over the state’s nuclear forces is placed in danger by hostile forces’ attacks … a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately.

South Korean intelligence officials said the revision codifies procedures for retaliatory nuclear attacks in the event that Kim is killed or incapacitated during an attack, Reuters reports.

The policy update comes months after the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials in U.S.-backed Israeli strikes in February 2026. Analysts have described those operations as a “wake-up call” for Pyongyang, highlighting the effectiveness of leadership-targeted strikes.

Professor Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul told The Telegraph that the constitutional emphasis gives added weight to what may have been existing policy: “This may have been policy before, but it has added emphasis now it has been enshrined in the constitution. Iran was the wake-up call.”

The nuclear policy revision was adopted alongside broader changes to North Korea’s constitution, also passed in March and revealed earlier this week. Those amendments remove all references to unification with South Korea, add an explicit territorial clause defining the country’s borders (including with the Republic of Korea to the south), and formally state that command authority over nuclear forces rests with Kim Jong Un as chairman of the State Affairs Commission.

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Did you know the US and Israel helped create Iran’s nuclear project? Here’s the story

What’s 3,000 people killed in Iran, 2,020 killed in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and more than a dozen in Gulf states after the US launched its war against Iran? “A little Middle East work” that’s going “very well,” US President Donald Trump said at the White House last week during a state dinner for King Charles. 

Trump’s ‘little work’, which involved significant casualties in the region without a clearly defined objective at the outset, was later framed as serving the purpose of ensuring that “Americans and their children would not be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Will Charles help Donald make sure there’s nothing – and no one – to allow Iran to work on its nuclear project? It seems like the US will try to level Iran to the ground anyway. According to The Atlantic, the Trump administration began considering strikes aimed not simply at Iran’s military capacity, but at the faction inside the regime that Washington believed was preventing a deal.

Trump even reposted a video by Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen calling for an air campaign along those lines. According to Axios, the military prepared options for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes, which General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, briefed the president on.

The timing is politically delicate. Trump has a state visit to China scheduled for mid-May, a trip that has already been postponed once. If strikes are ordered, they could come before the trip, allowing the president to travel after demonstrating strength. Or they could come immediately afterward, once the diplomatic optics are out of the way.

While Trump supplied the performance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio supplied the doctrine. When Trump spoke of military victory, royal agreement, and Iran never being allowed to possess a nuclear weapon, Rubio framed the same position as strategic necessity: Iran’s government cannot be trusted, its future intentions are already known, and any deal that fails to address the nuclear question is unacceptable.

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Nuclear Weapons Didn’t Save Lives in 1945. They Wouldn’t Today Either

False historical narratives abound in our contentious and divided world, as leaders and complicit historians endeavor to use public understanding of the past to push policies and gain control in the present. One of the most egregious cases is the widely accepted account of the decision by U.S. leaders to drop the atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9 of 1945, respectively.

The generally held view, which is frequently taught in schools across the U.S. and beyond, is that the bombings were necessary to save lives, both American and Japanese; just how many lives were saved has itself been subject to debate, though President Harry Truman claimed half a million U.S. lives in his 1955 memoirs. This assessment is not only disputed by the facts, but it ignores the realities of what the bombings meant for the initiation of the Cold War and the future of humanity, in a world long awash with civilization-ending weapons.

Most importantly, the bombings quite simply were unnecessary. There were at least three ways that Japanese surrender could have been induced without the instantaneous killing of more than a hundred thousand civilians and another several hundred thousand men, women, and children being subjected to third-degree burns, injuries, and radiation exposure that would either end their lives shortly thereafter, or cause health problems in the years and decades following the fateful attacks.

One option was that the U.S. could have altered the surrender terms to make them acceptable to the Japanese. What most Japanese leaders wanted in early August of 1945 was to keep their Emperor and the kokutai or emperor system. The Americans, who knew this from intercepted cables, should have accepted this term; they would eventually agree anyway out of self-interest. Sadly, most of Truman’s top military and political advisors urged this course of action, but Truman, with the support of Secretary of State Jimmy Byrnes, refused.

Another possibility was to allow the Soviet Union to proceed with its ground invasion upon declaring a war on Japan at midnight on August 8. The Joint Intelligence Staff of the Joint Chiefs of Staff predicted on April 11, “If at any time the USSR should enter the war, all Japanese will realize that absolute defeat is inevitable.”  As Japan’s Supreme War Council stated in May, “At the present moment when Japan is waging a life-or-death struggle against the U.S. and Britain, Soviet entry into the war will deal a death blow to the Empire.” Japan would have surrendered once it saw that it would be fighting both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Moreover, President Truman knew that the Soviets were about to invade, and wrote at least twice that that would end the war.

The last, albeit arguably the weakest, alternative was to demonstrate the enormous power of the atomic bomb by exploding it, as was done on July 16 in New Mexico, in the presence of foreign leaders, and as was recommended by a group of scientists in the Franck Report. Such a display could have exerted sufficient pressure on the Japanese government, especially in conjunction with the changed surrender terms and a warning about Soviet entry, to precipitate Japanese surrender. In fact, seven of America’s eight five-star admirals and generals in 1945 said the bombs were either militarily unnecessary, morally reprehensible, or both. Truman’s personal chief of staff Admiral William Leahy, who also chaired the meetings of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the use of the atomic bombs put us on the moral level of the ”barbarians of the dark ages.” General Douglas MacArthur wrote that the Japanese would have “gladly” surrendered months earlier if we’d told them they could keep the emperor.

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Trump Rules Out Use of Nuclear Weapons in Iran War

President Donald Trump on Thursday ruled out using a nuclear weapon in the war with Iran.

He told reporters in the Oval Office that the United States has already greatly weakened the Islamic Republic with conventional weapons, declaring that “a nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody.”

PBS NewsHour correspondent Liz Landers asked the president whether nuclear weapons might be used in the war, which the president said was a “stupid” question. 

“Why would I use a nuclear weapon when we’ve totally and in a very conventional way decimated them without it?” Trump said. “I wouldn’t use it.”

Two days ago, Trump extended a two-week ceasefire with Tehran, calling the Iranian leadership “seriously fractured.” He also cited a request from Pakistan’s prime minister as another reason for extending the ceasefire. 

In an April 17 Truth Social post, Trump said that Iran had agreed to surrender enriched uranium buried by last summer’s strikes on an underground base. 

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Who Is General Dan Caine? The Man Who Allegedly Said ‘No’ to Trump’s Nuclear Codes During the Iran Crisis

Now, General Dan Caine — America’s highest-ranking military officer — is at the centre of one of the most explosive and widely-circulated claims of the US-Iran conflict: that he stood up in a White House meeting and told President Donald Trump ‘no’ when the president allegedly moved to invoke nuclear codes.

The allegation, which originated from retired CIA analyst Larry C Johnson on the ‘Judging Freedom‘ podcast on 20 April, has not been confirmed by any official source. A White House spokesperson told Newsweek the claim was false. Yet it has already accumulated nearly two million views on X — and placed Caine squarely in the public eye in a way his relatively quiet rise to the top of the US military never had.

A Fighter Pilot Nobody Saw Coming

John Daniel ‘Raizin‘ Caine was born on 10 August 1968 in Elmira, New York. His father, Steve Caine, is a retired United States Air Force fighter pilot. He followed that path, earning a bachelor’s degree in economics from Virginia Military Institute in 1990 before completing the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training Programme and going on to fly F-16s.

A command pilot with more than 2,800 flight hours in the F-16, including over 150 combat hours, his career spans combat aviation, special operations, and senior interagency leadership across the Department of Defense, the White House, and the Intelligence Community. His last government post before becoming Chairman was as Associate Director for Military Affairs at the Central Intelligence Agency, a role he held from 2021 until his retirement in December 2024.

Trump’s Pick Over the Pentagon’s Own

Caine was not well known before his nomination in February 2025. Several officials on Capitol Hill and the Pentagon, granted anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter, said at the time that they had to Google his name.

He is the first chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who never served at the rank of four-star general or admiral before being nominated, the first to be nominated while in retirement, and the first to have been nominated as a member of a reserve component. Despite the unusual path, Trump backed him publicly. ‘He only knows one thing, how to WIN,’ Trump wrote of Caine in February.

Caine was confirmed on 11 April in a 60-25 vote and was promoted to a four-star general prior to the vote. He was sworn in just days before the Iran ceasefire deadline came into force.

The Claim That Went Viral

It was against this backdrop that Johnson made his allegation on the ‘Judging Freedom’ podcast. Johnson claimed that an emergency White House meeting took place on Saturday night amid escalating tensions with Iran, during which Trump allegedly moved to invoke nuclear codes, and Caine refused, with Johnson describing the exchange as ‘apparently quite a blowup.’

Johnson cited no named sources. Lead Stories searched Google News and Yahoo News for matching reports and found none, concluding that had such a confrontation actually happened and been verified by insiders, major outlets would have covered it heavily. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said, ‘I’d have to see a couple of source confirmations before I even dignify that question with an answer. I just can’t imagine that that was ever a serious consideration.’

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