Tag: debt

We spend (borrow) $22 billion every week to pay interest on National Debt — just the freaking interest. National Debt grows by $6 billion every day.

The problem with an increasing debt burden is that it costs more to maintain it: This is precisely the issue with which the U.S. Treasury is wrangling at present. As total U.S. national debt ticks over $39 trillion, the interest payments on that value are eye-watering: $529 billion for the first six months of the current fiscal year.

A new budget update from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released yesterday highlights that the government—according to preliminary estimates—paid out the near $530 billion between October 2025, when the fiscal year starts, and March 2026. This equates to more than $88 billion in interest payments a month, or more than $22 billion a week.

That means the service payments on public debt are roughly equal to spending for the same period on both the Department of Defense’s military budget and the Department of Education. These two outlays contribute costs of $461 billion and $70 billion respectively.

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Degrees of Seriousness on the National Debt

We hit an ignominious milestone recently when the national debt crossed $39 trillion. Naturally, regular citizens have chimed in about what’s to blame, who’s at fault, what can be done, or whether it even matters.

The discussion usually takes one or more of the following shapes.

If you’re new to the conversation, just dipping your toes in for the first time, you might think we can simply cut defense spending, or eliminate “waste, fraud, and abuse.” Considering how many military bases we have around the world, that’s a legit angle.

Likewise, when you factor in the Pentagon’s numerous failed audits and run-of-the-mill household items running into the thousands of dollars, you could kill two birds with one stone.

We’re just scratching the surface here, though.

If you’re somewhat serious, in addition to those, you would do well to point out discretionary spending. Those are monies that Congress approves annually, such as farm subsidies, spending on education and housing, etc. The nearly trillion-dollar defense budget is part of it.

However, all told, such spending barely makes up a quarter of the overall budget—if that.

If you’re more serious, you could include all the aforementioned items, plus the programs on autopilot: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. They are the three biggest items in the federal budget, eating up over half.

Interest on the debt, another expenditure on autopilot, recently overtook defense as the fourth largest item—but cannot be tackled directly. Only by addressing all the rest will that one be pushed down in the process.

Social Security’s financial health has been feeling the strain of an ever-growing number of beneficiaries and a declining birthrate.

By some estimates, what is in the Social Security Trust Fund will be insufficient to pay benefits within the next decade.

Regarding health insurance, its very structure is handicapped by its third-party payer nature. When consumers don’t know the actual price of the service they’re receiving, they’re less judicious in their spending.

Most Americans choose a low-deductible insurance plan where, after a visit or two to the doctor, all they pay is a $20 or $50 copay. Few have an idea of what the full menu of prices is for medical services.

At that point, general tax revenue, i.e., what comes out of your federal tax withholding, will be tapped to make up the difference.

One of the few less efficient enterprises than that is the government. That it is the genesis of Medicaid and Medicare exacerbates the problem.

Regardless, you know that you’ve encountered someone very serious about debt and deficits when he discusses attacking it at its root: the government’s ability to service it.

Investors (remember to check your 401k) will continue to buy US Treasurys if they believe Uncle Sam will continue to have the ability to pay the interest. That ability rests on the taxing power it has over productive citizens.

So, why not cut tax rates and reduce that ability?

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Hunter Biden Flees US, Claims He’s $17 Million in Debt

Hunter Biden has reportedly fled the US and is $17 million in debt.

Why doesn’t Hunter Biden just sell a few pieces of his highly coveted art? Don’t each one of Hunter Biden’s art pieces cost more than a Degas?

It is unclear where Hunter Biden is currently residing; however, last March, he was spotted out and about with his wife in South Africa.

Hunter’s wife, Melissa Cohen, is from South Africa.

Last year, Laura Loomer obtained photos of Hunter Biden, his second wife, Melissa Cohen, and their toddler son, Beau, on a lavish vacation in Cape Town, South Africa, with US Secret Service agents in tow.

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Coming Soon – Federal Red Ink Barfing Skyward Like You’ve Never Seen

Self-evidently, the news has been overwhelmingly focused on Washington’s current endeavor to unload $200 billion of imperial destruction upon Iran and its neighbors around the Persian Gulf. Well, and also upon all other users of petroleum products, LNG, LPGs, nitrogen fertilizer, food, helium, semiconductors, manufactured goods and most everything else anywhere on the planet.

Accordingly, comparatively scant attention has been given to another recent milestone on America’s headlong dash to fiscal disaster. To wit, the public debt crossed the $39 trillion mark and nearly in the blink of an eye, too. Just four years ago, we were at the $29 trillion level and nine years ago at the $19 trillion mark.

Needless to say, the “peacemaker” in the Oval Office has played no small role in this skyward ascent of the public debt. During his first term, the public debt grew by a staggering $8 trillion and already another $3 trillion has been racked-up during his second go-round.

Stated differently, the King of Debt has surely earned his place in the history books. The $11 trillion of new debt on his watch to date already accounts for 28% of all the public debt incurred in America since George Washington!

Then again, he still has got nearly three years to go, and the debt impact of both the OBBBA and the impending financial and human bloodbath in the Persian Gulf are just getting started.

Indeed, as to the latter it’s as clear as the orange glow around his cranium that the Donald is doing another round of fake rope-a-dope negotiations with the Iranians. That’s to buy time to get the 82nd Airborne, various amphibious landing ships and other invasionary forces in place for his next “win”.

That’s right.The fool in the Oval Office is actually going to attempt to seize the Alamo Kharg Island. That will mean military chaos in the Gulf, unprecedented turmoil in the global economy and soaring military expenditures, which will make the pending $200 billion DOD supplemental look like a mere down-payment.

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10 Years Ago Today, Trump Promised To Eliminate the National Debt. Instead, It Has Doubled.

Ten years ago today, Donald Trump said he would pay off the national debt in the span of just eight years.

That did not happen. Instead, the gross national debt has doubled since that day—from about $19 trillion to over $39 trillion. Much of that additional borrowing has taken place during Trump’s five-plus years in the White House.

The gap between Trump’s outlandish promise and the brutal fiscal reality of the past decade is not just a political gotcha. It’s also an apt illustration of how far and how fast the debt has spiraled. And it’s a painful reminder of a missed opportunity that Americans will be facing for a long, long time. The bill for these 10 years of fiscal profligacy will be coming due long after Trump has finally departed from the political scene.

But it’s a story that starts, as everything in politics seems to these days, with Trump.

“We’re not a rich country. We’re a debtor nation,” is what then-candidate Trump told The Washington Post in an interview on March 31, 2016 (a full transcript was published two days later). “We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt.”

How long would it take to do that, asked the Post‘s Bob Woodward.

“Fairly quickly,” Trump replied. When pressed for a more specific answer, Trump provided a shocking timeline. “Well, I would say over a period of eight years.”

That was never going to happen. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) pointed out shortly after Trump’s comments made headlines, “achieving this goal would be virtually impossible—particularly for a candidate who has proposed large tax cuts and ruled out significant entitlement reforms.”

Instead, the CRFB estimated that Trump’s proposals would cause the national debt to nearly double within 10 years. The group arrived at that figure by taking the existing baseline for the debt—which, as of early 2016, was expected to grow to about $28 trillion by 2026—and adding the estimated cost of Trump’s various campaign promises.

It’s worth appreciating how remarkably accurate that assessment turned out to be. The number-crunchers at the Congressional Budget Office and the CRFB didn’t know there would be a pandemic. They didn’t know the outcome of the major tax-and-spending bills that Trump and President Joe Biden would pass. Heck, they didn’t even know who would be president—remember, in April 2026, most of the political class didn’t believe Trump had much of a chance.

The accuracy of that prediction points to two things, Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the CRFB, said when asked about it this week. First, the extent to which rising debt was baked into the federal budget before Trump came on the scene. Social Security and Medicare are the largest federal programs, and both were on pace to borrow more during the 2020s.

Second, it’s due to Trump keeping many of his campaign promises. That’s not the compliment that it might sound like. Trump vowed not to touch the aforementioned entitlement programs that were driving borrowing to new heights, and he promised to both cut taxes and increase military spending. That was a recipe for higher deficits, and over his first four years in office, Trump added over $8 trillion to the national debt that he’d once sought to “get rid of.”

Biden picked up where Trump left off, adding another $4.7 trillion to the debt with various proposals. In his first year back in the White House, Trump has done nothing to address the growing pile of debt. The federal government borrowed $1.8 trillion during the fiscal year that ended in September and is on pace to borrow about the same amount this year.

What have Americans gotten from a decade of heavy borrowing that doubled the size of the debt? Higher inflation and higher interest rates, for starters.

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The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it

The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025.

Importantly, the $47.78 trillion in reported liabilities does not include the unfunded obligations of social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare — those are disclosed separately in the off-balance-sheet Statement of Social Insurance (SOSI).

The government’s consolidated balance sheet position, excluding the SOSI, deteriorated by nearly $2.07 trillion between FY 2024 and FY 2025, reaching a staggering negative $41.72 trillion. Total liabilities are now nearly eight times the value of reported assets. The largest drivers were a $2 trillion increase in federal debt and interest payable (now $30.33 trillion) and a $438.8 billion increase in federal employee and veteran benefits payable (now $15.47 trillion).

The Off-Balance-Sheet Iceberg

The off-balance-sheet picture is even more alarming. The 75-year unfunded social insurance obligation surged by $10.1 trillion in a single year, rising from $78.3 trillion in FY 2024 to $88.4 trillion in FY 2025 — driven primarily by a $6.9 trillion jump in projected Medicare Part B shortfalls and a $2.5 trillion increase for Social Security. The Treasury’s Statement of Long-Term Fiscal Projections shows the 75-year fiscal gap widening from 4.3% of GDP in FY 2024 to 4.7% in FY 2025.

If the $88.4 trillion in 75-year off-balance-sheet obligations were added to the $47.8 trillion in official balance sheet liabilities, total federal obligations would now exceed $136.2 trillion — roughly five times U.S. annual GDP.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a disclaimer of opinion on the U.S. government’s FY 2025 financial statements — the 29th consecutive year it has been unable to determine whether the statements are fairly presented. This is primarily due to serious, ongoing financial management problems at the Department of Defense and weaknesses in accounting for interagency transactions.

What $136 Trillion Looks Like in Your Living Room

Not only has the financial press ignored the consolidated financial statements, but most members of Congress and members of the general public will not read the consolidated financial statements. Documents like the consolidated financial statements are not the kind of thing you want to read before driving. If that’s not bad enough, most people cannot relate to the trillion-dollar numbers in the financial statements. Therefore, it is appropriate to translate them into terms that people will understand.

Most people cannot relate to trillion-dollar figures on a government ledger. So consider this: divide every number by 100 million — drop eight zeros — and federal finances look like a household budget in freefall.

That household earns $52,446 and spends $73,378 — running a $20,932 annual deficit. Its total liabilities and unfunded promises amount to $1,361,788 against just $60,554 in assets, leaving it $1.3 million in the hole. Uncle Sam, by any accounting standard, is insolvent.

Congress has clearly lost control of the nation’s finances. America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming impossible to ignore.

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AI Won’t Fix America’s Looming Debt Crisis

Last month, Congress sparred with the president over a partial budget, but with few real cuts, America’s slow march toward an epic debt crisis went on undeterred. With over $38 trillion in debt and interest payments exceeding defense or Medicare spending, one would expect lawmakers to confront reality and do the difficult work needed to restore fiscal sanity. But why would they? Cutting entitlements and increasing middle-class taxes rarely make for winning campaign slogans.

It’s no surprise, then, that some prefer to pin their hopes on AI as America’s fiscal savior. Vanguard’s chief economist Joe Davis argued there’s as high as a 50 percent chance AI will prevent a debt-driven economic malaise. Elon Musk voiced a similar conclusion late last year, claiming AI and robotics are “the only thing that’s going to solve the US debt crisis.”

The argument goes like this: an AI boom drives explosive economic growth and tax revenue, while, at the same time, productivity gains impressively offset any upward pressure on interest rates. The deficit becomes a surplus and the overall debt shrinks, possibly disappearing entirely.

If that sounds less like a policy plan and more like a retirement strategy built around winning the lottery, you’re not wrong. The entire scenario hinges on a massive if: that AI generates extraordinary revenue and does it quickly enough to outrun rising interest costs.

But even if the government hits the tax revenue jackpot before Congress drives us off a fiscal cliff, it would be naïve to assume lawmakers would pay down the debt. 

The More the Government Gets, the More the Government Spends

For the sake of argument, suppose the tech optimists are right, and the federal government enjoys a massive AI-driven revenue windfall. Understanding what happens next requires understanding the incentives of politicians and their voters.

This is where public choice shines. Rather than assuming politicians and voters act in everyone’s best interest, this branch of economics recognizes that people don’t become angels once they interface with the government. Incentives matter, especially for politicians.

Incentives are why we have a deficit in the first place. The public isn’t particularly interested in financial restraint because high spending and low taxes benefit them now, and the resulting debt is some future generation’s problem. Politicians surely see the crisis brewing, but solving it is a sure way to get voted out of office. And so the incentive is to run constant deficits and grow the debt year after year, decade after decade.

Without changing incentives, it will be hard to avoid spending new revenue. Ballooning coffers mean voters will demand that the government dole out more goodies (especially if AI displaces workers along the way). Washington already excels at entertaining expensive ideas: healthcare subsidies for well-off families, a universal basic income, generous tax cuts, a fifty-percent increase in military spending, all despite the pushback the current deficit’s able to muster. Imagine the wish list after it drops even a little.

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Chicago Claims Its Budget is Balanced. Independent Audit Shows a $41.1 Billion Deficit.

The city of Chicago exists on another plane of the universe than the rest of us. It’s a place where up is down, black is white, and the basic laws of physics are held in abeyance so that when adding one plus one, any number that’s convenient (and politically viable) can be the answer.

In Chicago’s budget, the “new physics” includes the caveat that nothing is real unless we (the aldermen and the city’s hapless Mayor Brandon Johnson) say it is. And even then, nothing is permanent in this alternate plane of the universe. An equation that’s “true” today may not be so “true” tomorrow.

Do you think I’m being facetious? 

“Chicago finished fiscal year 2024 with a $41.1 billion gap between the money it has available to pay bills and the obligations it owes, according to a new report from Truth in Accounting, placing the city among the worst financially managed major cities in the nation,” according to The Center Square.

That’s only half the story. The city denies there’s a deficit at all. City officials say (how can they not giggle when saying this) the budget is balanced.

Truth in Accounting CEO Sheila Weinberg clears up any ambiguity.

“They only include the expenses they’ve paid, not all the expenses they’ve incurred,” Weinberg said. “They also include loan proceeds as revenue and still claim the budget is balanced. In the real world, borrowing money to balance your budget would be insane. But in government budgeting, that’s how they do it.”

One person’s “insanity” is another’s denial of reality.

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“Train Wreck” US Adds $481 Billion In Debt In 3 Months

The government hit the debt ceiling back in January which blocked any net new debt from being created from January to June. Once the debt ceiling was lifted, the government wasted no time in catching up for all the months where borrowing was frozen. Over the last 7 months, the government borrowed an incredible $2.28T!

Note: Non-Marketable consists almost entirely of debt the government owes to itself (e.g., debt owed to Social Security or public retirement)

January was a very small month, but the chart below shows that $2.3T was borrowed for all of 2025. This follows $2.6T and $2.2T in 2023 and 2024. Needless to say, there seems to be a new standard of $2T+ annual borrowing. This will likely mean adding $10T every 4 years at current rates. More than likely that is going to accelerate going forward.

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