Tag: debt

Department of Labor Announces Gavin Newsom’s California Owes OVER $22 BILLION to U.S. Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund – The ONLY State Still in Debt, Slamming Businesses with Higher Federal Payroll Taxes

The radical left’s favorite golden boy is running the once-great state of California straight into the ground.

The Trump Labor Department announced Wednesday that California Governor Gavin Newsom’s failed administration owes more than $22 billion to the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund.

This staggering debt comes from loans California took during the COVID-19 pandemic to pay unemployment benefits — benefits that were looted by massive fraud under Newsom’s watch. California is now the only state in the entire country with an outstanding federal unemployment insurance loan balance.

As a direct result, California business owners are being forced to pay higher federal payroll taxes to bail out Sacramento’s incompetence and corruption. Every other state that borrowed during the pandemic has repaid its loans. Not Newsom’s California.

During and after the pandemic, California raked in record budget surpluses, at one point nearing $100 billion. Instead of using that taxpayer windfall to repay the federal loan like responsible states did, Newsom and the Democrat supermajority in Sacramento sat on the money, spent it on other priorities, and let the debt balloon with interest.

The state has paid $1.8 billion in interest since 2021, with Newsom’s latest budget proposing another $668 million in interest payments this year while putting zero dollars toward the actual principal.

The bill keeps growing. The California EDD’s UI Fund Forecast officially projects the outstanding loan balance to reach $22.0 billion by the end of 2026.

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Japan’s Keynesian Mirage: How Debt, Inflation, & A Collapsing Yen Expose A Failed Model

Japan’s yen crisis exposes the long‑running failure of the Keynesian strategy that has dominated the country’s economic policy: chronic deficits, exploding public debt, and engineered inflation are now eroding Japan’s purchasing power, competitiveness, and monetary stability.

For decades, many mainstream analysts pointed to Japan as proof that a rich, “monetarily sovereign” country could keep an extremely high public debt without relevant consequences. The argument was simple: as long as the state can issue its currency, it can always print whatever is needed to cover deficits, refinance debt, and support public spending.

In reality, that has meant public debt soaring to around 250% of GDP, one of the highest levels in the developed world, while repeatedly increasing government expenditure and leaving large, persistent deficits. Even the IMF notes that, even after several years of moderate growth, prudence is “key to keep debt‑to‑GDP on a firmly downward path,” admitting that the current level is a structural vulnerability.

Japan’s apparent stability depended on a crucial external factor, the country’s enormous exporting capacity.

As a leading exporter of cars, technology, and capital goods, the country attracted a continuous inflow of US dollars and foreign capital that supported a stable currency and kept inflation low, despite fiscal excess. That protective layer is eroding fast. Headline inflation has edged up from 1.4% in April 2026 to 1.5% in May, while core inflation has held at 1.4%, still below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target but clearly positive after three decades of near‑zero price growth.

A key factor of the Japanese model was its export engine and the “golden goose” of capital inflows.

These two factors allowed the country to live with large debt and deficits without immediately triggering high inflation. However, that mirage is vanishing as external performance falters and inflation, though moderate, bites into real incomes.

Keynesianism did not spur growth or improve Japanese citizens’ lives. It just bloated an unsustainable government machine.

Recent data show that price increases are now broad‑based, not confined to a few categories. In May 2026, overall CPI inflation was 1.5% year-on-year. However, food prices rose 3.5% year-on-year, which is a heavy burden for households. Goods inflation stood at 2.0%, while services inflation was around 1.0%.

Underlying inflationary pressures, particularly in services and wage‑sensitive sectors, are now embedded in the system rather than an isolated energy shock. Meanwhile, real net wages are stagnant or declining. Japanese citizens face an affordability crisis.

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US Debt Exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II

The United States has crossed a milestone that Washington has spent decades pretending would never arrive. Federal debt held by the public has now exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since the aftermath of the Second World War. According to the latest government data, debt held by the public reached approximately $31.27 trillion while the nation’s annual economic output totaled roughly $31.22 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 100.2%. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt held by the public will average 101% of GDP this year and continue climbing to 120% by 2036 if current law remains unchanged.

The media continues to compare today’s numbers with the end of World War II, but that comparison completely misses the point. After 1945, the United States emerged as the world’s dominant industrial power. Soldiers came home, factories shifted from producing tanks to automobiles, the population expanded rapidly, and economic growth far outpaced government borrowing. Debt declined because the nation was producing wealth. Today we are doing precisely the opposite. Washington continues borrowing during periods of economic expansion, not because the country faces an existential war, but because politicians refuse to tell voters that promises have become mathematically impossible to keep.

The numbers expose just how unsustainable the fiscal position has become. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the federal deficit will total roughly $1.9 trillion this fiscal year, equal to 5.8% of GDP. By 2036, annual deficits are projected to exceed $3.1 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP. Federal spending will consume 23.3% of GDP this year, while revenues amount to only 17.5%. Washington is spending approximately $1.33 for every dollar it collects. That gap is no longer the result of recession or emergency stimulus. It has become the permanent operating model of government.

The real crisis is not simply the debt itself. It is the cost of carrying that debt. Net interest payments exceeded $1 trillion for the first time last year, consuming roughly 14% of all federal spending. Interest on the debt now exceeds what Washington spends on national defense. Every increase in long-term interest rates compounds the problem because trillions of dollars in Treasury securities must continually be refinanced at higher yields. Governments cannot borrow indefinitely without eventually becoming captive to their creditors.

This is exactly why I have repeatedly explained that the sovereign debt crisis, not inflation, will define this decade. Every government has embraced the Keynesian fantasy that deficits do not matter as long as borrowing remains possible. They assume they can simply issue another bond and postpone the consequences for another administration. That strategy works only until confidence begins to disappear. Sovereign debt crises are never caused by running out of money. They begin when lenders question whether governments possess either the ability or the political will to restore fiscal discipline.

Our computer has never suggested that the sovereign debt crisis would begin with a sudden default. It unfolds gradually through rising interest costs, capital migration, declining confidence, and governments searching for new ways to finance themselves. That inevitably leads to higher taxes, inflationary policies, capital controls, and expanding regulation of private wealth. Politicians will never admit they overspent. They will instead insist that the problem is wealthy citizens who have not contributed enough, corporations that have not paid their “fair share,” or investors who moved capital abroad. Governments always blame the people before accepting responsibility for their own fiscal recklessness.

Crossing 100% of GDP is not merely another statistic. It marks the point where the United States officially joins the group of heavily indebted nations that believed perpetual borrowing could replace sound fiscal policy. Unlike 1946, there is no peace dividend waiting on the horizon, no manufacturing boom capable of overwhelming the debt, and no political appetite to reduce spending. Every election promises more benefits, more subsidies, and more borrowing. That is why this cycle will end as every sovereign debt cycle throughout history has ended, with a crisis of confidence rather than a shortage of promises.

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Abolish the Fed: The Root of Inflation, Debt, and the Destruction of the Dollar

In 1913, the year the Federal Reserve was established, an ice cream cone typically cost about $0.05 (a nickel), while the average American home cost around $2,500 to $3,500 to purchase or build. Today, the national average cost of an ice cream cone is about $4.00 to $5.50 for a single scoop, while the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the United States is approximately $404,300.

In 1970, the year before America went off the gold standard, gold traded at an average price of roughly $35.96 to $38.90 per troy ounce. Today, the live spot price of gold is approximately $4,320 to $4,350 per troy ounce.

The Federal Reserve, through its artificial control of interest rates, credit expansion, and increases in the money supply, is the root cause of inflation and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. In the United States, a capitalist country, we trust the market to set the price of shoes, sandwiches, movie tickets, and cars. Why do we not trust the market to set a market-driven interest rate?

If interest rates were determined by the market, they would never be artificially too high or too low, and America could avoid the cycles of boom and bust fueled by cheap money. Whether during a boom or a bust, both periods ultimately result in a weaker U.S. dollar. Eliminating the Fed would make the dollar stronger and economy more stable.

Before examining how the Fed contributes to inflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability, a few common misconceptions should be addressed.

First, it is not a hidden secret that the Federal Reserve is not a direct agency of the U.S. government. This is publicly available information. The Fed is a federally chartered, operationally independent institution. Its Board of Governors is a federal agency whose members are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, while its 12 regional Reserve Banks are privately owned by member commercial banks. Congress retains the authority to alter or abolish the Fed by legislation.

Second, this arrangement is not unusual. Nearly every country has a central bank, although it may operate under a different name. Central banks exist on a spectrum from fully independent to fully government-controlled, with most operating as hybrids that combine varying degrees of operational independence with government oversight and accountability. The Federal Reserve is simply the American version of a central bank.

The Federal Reserve, created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, operates through three primary mechanisms: setting the federal funds rate, conducting open market operations, and regulating reserve requirements for commercial banks.

The core of its money-creation power lies in open market operations. The Fed controls the monetary base, currency in circulation plus deposit balances that depository institutions hold at the Fed, by buying or selling securities. When the Fed buys a security, it pays by crediting the bank’s reserve account. No prior savings are required. The reserves are created by accounting entry.

Those reserves flow into the broader economy through fractional reserve banking. When you deposit $1,000 in a bank, the bank keeps a fraction and lends out the rest. That money, spent and redeposited elsewhere, is lent out again. Through this money multiplier effect, banks expand the money supply well beyond the original deposit.

Since March 2020, the reserve requirement floor has been set at zero, meaning US banks face no mandatory reserve floor at all. The only remaining brake on credit expansion is the interest rate the Fed itself sets and can raise or lower at will.

The federal funds rate is the rate at which commercial banks lend and borrow excess reserves overnight. The FOMC meets eight times annually to set this target. This single administered price, set by committee rather than by markets, governs the cost of capital for the world’s largest economy.

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Phoenix Pride Files for Bankruptcy Ahead of ‘Pride Month’

Phoenix Pride, a prominent organization behind Arizona’s largest LGBTQ+ gathering, announced on the eve of “Pride Month” that it has filed for bankruptcy. 

“The filing, submitted Thursday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Arizona, showed that Phoenix Pride was seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, allowing time to continue operations while restructuring its debts under court supervision,” the Tucson Sentinel reported. 

The organization’s board of directors said in a press release that the decision “was not made lightly.” 

“Rising operational costs, economic uncertainty, shifts in sponsorship and fundraising partly due to the current political climate and administration, and increasing demands on nonprofit organizations have created circumstances we can no longer navigate alone,” the press release reads. “Like many Pride organizations and LGBTQ+ nonprofits across the country, Phoenix Pride has faced mounting financial pressures that threaten our long-term sustainability.” 

The local publication noted that Phoenix Pride’s financial woes come just months after Tucson Pride shut down “following years of financial strain and leadership problems.” 

“The sequence of events raises new questions about the sustainability of some of the state’s largest LGBTQ+ organizations as they navigate rising costs, strict budgets, internal struggles and community trust,” the report continues. 

Phoenix Pride said filing Chapter 11 gives the organization the opportunity to reorganize its finances while continuing to operate, with the board of directors saying, “Our mission has not changed.”

According to the local news report, residents at a January town hall questioned the organization’s finances, transparency, and long-term plan. In November, Phoenix Pride publicly announced that its budget was $350,000 short and blamed its troubles on waning festival attendance and the loss of major sponsors.

Court documents list three creditors or entities who allege the organization owes them money, including $11,770 to a Wells Fargo Business Elite Card account and $1,600 to Oracle Event Group, per the report.

“The largest debt is a disputed claim of $418,886.31 tied to Pride Group, LLC, an Arizona-based event services company. A disputed claim means the two organizations disagree about the amount of money owed. The details of the dispute have not been disclosed,” the report details.

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The Financial Decline Of Miami Beach: When Pride Becomes Debt

Every time Miami Beach wants residents to accept another tax increase, another utility hike, another bond, or another excuse for why basic infrastructure still has not been fixed, the same pattern begins. First comes the whisper campaign. Then comes the friendly media narrative. Then come the professional politicians telling you there is no other choice. They want you to believe that more borrowing on your back is the only responsible path forward and that if you question them, you are somehow against progress, resiliency, public safety, or the future.

That is dishonest.

Miami Beach is not broke because the people have failed to pay. Miami Beach is in trouble because the political establishment has failed to lead.

For years, residents have paid more in taxes, more in fees, more in utility bills, and more through debt. The city has approved luxury development, expanded its budget, increased administrative costs, hired more staff, funded consultants, celebrated ribbon cuttings, and marketed itself as a global success story. Yet now we are told the city faces more than one billion dollars in infrastructure needs.

How?

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Canada’s government debt projected to hit $2.44 trillion, nearly double since 2007: Fraser Institute

Canada’s combined federal and provincial government debt is projected to nearly double from pre-2008 financial crisis levels, reaching an estimated $2.44 trillion, according to a new report from the Fraser Institute.

The report, titled The Growing Debt Burden for Canadians: 2025 Edition, says combined government net debt has ballooned from roughly $1.21 trillion in 2007/08 to more than $2.3 trillion today, with debt continuing to climb. 

Researchers warn that the debt load is growing faster than the economy itself. The combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 53.2 percent in 2007/08 to nearly 75 percent.

“Government debt — federally and in most provinces — has grown substantially over the past 17 years,” said Fraser Institute fiscal studies director Jake Fuss, co-author of the report. 

The report measures “net debt,” meaning total government liabilities minus financial assets held by governments. The study argues that persistent deficits today will translate into higher taxes and higher debt servicing costs in the future. 

Debt interest payments are already becoming a major expense. Another Fraser Institute study estimates federal and provincial governments will spend a combined $92.5 billion on debt interest payments in 2024/25 alone. 

On a per-person basis, the combined debt burden varies widely across the country. Alberta has the lowest combined debt per person at roughly $40,939, while Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest at nearly $68,861 per resident. Quebec and Ontario also rank among the most indebted provinces per capita.

The Fraser Institute describes itself as an independent, non-partisan public policy think tank.

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Illinois Plans Tax Break for Billionaires and the Chicago Bears. Everyone Else Could End Up Paying More.

The Illinois Legislature is busy advancing a bill that’s one of the most egregious examples yet of the grift between professional sports teams and state and local governments. 

Under House Bill 910, projects designated as “megaprojects” would have their assessed value frozen at a base-year level, effectively shielding all new construction from property taxation for up to 45 years. Just two developments would qualify for the maximum duration under the current language: the proposed Chicago Bears stadium in Arlington Heights and the One Central mixed-use development near Soldier Field in Chicago.

Rank-and-file property owners in Illinois pay the highest property taxes in the nation, but middle-class taxpayers get no relief under the bill. Instead, it’s likely their taxes will go up even more. The language says “megaproject” developers (for projects that cost at least $100 million) would be able to negotiate a payment in lieu of taxes with local taxing bodies, with the duration of the tax break varying by the total cost of the development. For example, if a property tax analysis of the Arlington Heights stadium estimates it to be a $5 billion development on land currently valued at $100 million, this bill would reduce the developer’s annual tax liability from roughly $350 million to approximately $7 million.

What happens to the difference of $343 million in this example? Local governments can still count the full value of the megaproject when calculating how much they’re allowed to tax and borrow—they just can’t actually collect taxes on most of the megaproject. Given the record of local governments in Illinois, it’s a pretty good bet they’ll find that revenue elsewhere by raising taxes. The legislation, as it stands, does basically nothing to address this.

The bill passed the Illinois House in April. The bill passed 78–32, with 10 Republicans crossing party lines to support it. Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker is busy pressuring the state Senate to get it across the finish line before the end of May. Pritzker (and the rest of the Legislature) are feeling pressure to pass the bill due to the looming threat of the Bears moving to northwest Indiana. Hoosier lawmakers, especially Republicans, have a standing offer for the Bears to relocate just across the state line for over $1 billion in public subsidies. (At least Indiana is in better fiscal health than Illinois.)

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The Bond Market Is About To Break Washington

The bond market is beginning to force reality onto Washington, and it may ultimately force an end to the Iran war long before politicians or diplomats are willing to admit it.

For months, investors have focused on missiles, retaliation headlines, oil chokepoints, and the possibility of a broader regional escalation from the Iran War. During the geopolitical noise, I urged readers not to overlook stress in financial markets that was happening before the war even started, namely in places like private credit and subprime auto lending. I called these “real crises” hiding behind record highs while “investors” chase gamma squeezes higher in an ongoing distortion feedback loop that is making things look far better than they are under the surface.

And now, beneath all the geopolitical noise, a much more serious, harder to ignore crisis is unfolding. As Cypher says in The Matrix: 

“Fasten your seat belt Dorothy, ’cause Kansas is going bye-bye.”

This crisis is in the Treasury market. Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began.

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Mamdani’s ‘Balanced Budget’ Is an Accounting Atrocity

In mid-May, after extending the executive deadline, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani released his $124.7 billion Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 Executive Budget. 

After warning that NYC faces a budget crisis of “historic magnitude” in late April, Mamdani now assures the 8.5 million residents of the Big Apple that the city is on “firm financial footing” after he “balanced the budget” “without raising property taxes” or “slashing services.”

While it is certainly true that Mamdani did not slash services or raise property taxes even higher than they already are, it is ludicrous for him to declare that NYC’s budget is sound and sustainable.

Aside from Mamdani’s smoke-and-mirrors budget summary, the harsh reality is that the Big Apple is bankrupt. 

According to NYC Comptroller Mark Levine, the “$2.2 billion budget shortfall for FY2026 and projected $10.4 billion gap for FY2027… is the first time since the Great Recession that the City faces a budget shortfall of this magnitude.”

Based on Mamdani’s “balanced budget,” the FY 2026 and FY 2027 deficits are no longer a concern. 

Much of the gap has been taken care of by what Mamdani calls a “partnership with Albany.” New Yorkers outside of the Big Apple call it a bailout.

“Thanks to Governor Kathy Hochul, Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, the City secured an additional $4 billion in state support and actions to help stabilize the budget,” Mamdani bluntly put it.

However, Albany could not supply enough money to make the short-term math work.

Thus, Mamdani’s balanced budget relies upon accounting gimmicks and “new tax revenue.”

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