Tag: debt

Causes of Uncontrollable US Public Spending and Debt

Annual US public spending has been in deficit for decades. As a result, total US debt continues to increase year after year with no end in sight. The end may not be in sight but the debt cannot continue to grow forever. We just don’t know when markets will shed the dollar, although the process may already be underway. In this brief essay, I will not point out all the disastrous consequences except that they are disastrous and will happen. Rather, I will point out how we got to this sorry state of affairs when it appears that other nations, such as China and Russia, have done a much better job of controlling public spending.

Gold Standard Takes the Blame

The main, and most obvious, reason that American spending has been in chronic deficit is that it abandoned the gold standard and appears to have no intention of reinstating it. Such is not the case with China and Russia. True, neither country is on the gold standard now, but both have been quietly accumulating gold for many years. Nor has either announced their respective total gold holdings or when and under what circumstances either would be prompted to tie their currencies to gold. Nevertheless, it is clear that both nations have a greater respect for gold than the US and appear to be preparing for its return at least for settling international trade accounts.

For millennia gold, and occasionally silver, were considered to be true money. Nations did go off the gold standard in time of war, but most quickly returned to a gold standard after the end of exceptionally high military spending. All nations, except the US, went off the gold standard in World War I, but eventually returned. The British returned to a gold standard in the 1920’s, but the monetary authorities made a glaring mistake. The British had increased the money supply by approximately double during the war, which made it almost impossible to return at the pre-war pound-to-gold ratio, but they did it anyway. This caused a severe recession in Great Britain as it required a drop in prices of 50 percent.

Labor contracts could not be honored and strikes ensued. Gold flowed out of the country, which Fed Chairman Benjamin Strong tried to ameliorate by inflating the dollar surreptitiously. This was but one factor that caused the US stock market crash and led to a sharp recession. Instead of ceasing monetary intervention and allowing business and prices to adjust, as was the policy of President Harding after WWI, first Hoover and then Roosevelt tried to cartelize the economy via price controls. The Great Depression followed. The gold standard took the blame for this debacle instead of Hoover/Roosevelt. In fact, it is a very common myth that Roosevelt’s New Deal saved America. Such is economic ignorance perpetuated.

Corrupting the People through Welfare

Secondly, in a gradual process, government became responsible for the people’s welfare, displacing the family and local friendly societies. The first large program was Social Security, truly the camel’s nose under the tent. Roosevelt sold the program to the citizens and to Congress using different rationales. To the public he claimed that the program was no different than a private annuity. The government took the people’s forced contributions, deposited them into earmarked accounts, and then distributed them plus interest to taxpayers upon reaching a certain age. Of course, the US Constitution enumerates no power to Congress to run a forced annuity program. So Congress and Roosevelt sold the program as merely a spending program, one of many. Social Security was never intended to replace the individual as primarily responsible for his own retirement income. It was sold as a supplement. Yet today 22 million Americans retire with no income stream except Social Security. This represents almost 40 percent of retirees. Obviously, the concept of moral hazard is unknown to government.

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China Off-Balance-Sheet Debt Exceeds GDP of Most Nations

For decades, there have been claims that China had the fastest-growing economy, and that it would eventually overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. However, the fastest-growing economies are always developing economies because mature economies do not have as much room to grow.

In other words, a country with a per-capita GDP of $80 per month, as China had in the year 2000, has far more room for rapid expansion than a country like the United States, where the figure now stands at around $7,000 per month.

There is also the concept of low-hanging fruit. When a country has no highways or rail infrastructure, building highways and railways causes GDP to skyrocket. But once all major cities are connected, building additional highways and rail lines has only a marginal impact on economic growth.

A case in point is China’s famous high-speed rail system. Once highways and conventional railways already existed in China, converting to high-speed rail represented a massive economic investment and a large accumulation of debt, while the resulting increase in GDP was relatively minimal. For one thing, high-speed rail cannot be used to carry freight.

While China is still building high-speed rail lines, linking small communities with other small communities, the world is moving toward a remote-work model, making the movement of people a smaller contributor to GDP. Moving freight, however, remains critically important. Despite having a population less than one-quarter the size of China’s, the United States operates approximately 220,000 kilometers of total rail, about 33 percent more than China’s 162,000 kilometers, the vast majority of which is dedicated to freight.

Along with this development boom in China came debt. Because of the centrally planned economy, the central government was able to order local governments to invest and develop by creating debt. That debt was financed largely through real-estate sales, as the Chinese government controls actual land ownership rather than simple lease arrangements, which is what individual “homeowners” in China actually possess.

In order to keep this debt from detracting from the appearance of investment and economic performance, large portions of the debt were kept off the balance sheet.

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Japanese Are Feeling the Economy Collapse in Real-Time

Japan spent decades trying to convince the world that endless debt, money printing, and zero interest rates could continue indefinitely without consequences. Now ordinary Japanese citizens are beginning to feel the pressure directly as inflation rises, wages fail to keep pace, and living standards steadily deteriorate underneath the surface.

For the first time in generations, Japanese households are experiencing sustained cost-of-living stress while confidence in economic stability weakens sharply. Recent polling showed more than 80% of Japanese households now believe prices are rising faster than their incomes, while consumer confidence remains near recessionary levels despite years of government stimulus and intervention. Food inflation, utility costs, transportation expenses, and housing-related costs have all risen materially as the yen weakened dramatically against the dollar over recent years.

The psychological impact inside Japan is enormous because the country spent decades living through deflationary conditions where prices remained relatively stable. Japanese consumers became accustomed to stagnant prices and low borrowing costs. Once inflation finally arrived, the shock to household budgets was immediate.

Rice prices alone surged more than 20% year-over-year at one stage while basic food staples, imported goods, fuel, and electricity all moved sharply higher. Japan imports enormous quantities of energy and raw materials, which means yen weakness translates directly into higher consumer prices across much of the economy.

This is exactly what I warned would eventually happen once central banks lose control of sovereign debt cycles.

Japan now carries government debt exceeding 260% of GDP, the highest among major industrial economies. For years the Bank of Japan artificially suppressed interest rates and monetized government debt through massive bond purchases. The BOJ effectively became trapped because allowing rates to normalize aggressively would destabilize the government’s own financing structure.

Now Japan faces the consequences of that trap.

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U.S. Treasury pays $3 billion a day in interest on national debt nearing $39 trillion mark

The U.S. Treasury has paid $628 billion in net interest this year to service its borrowing, according to the the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The latest monthly budget update on the national debt and its interest burden, shared on May 8, breaks down the government’s income and outgoings for the fiscal year so far, which began in October.

The CBO breakdown shows the deficit so far this year is actually smaller than it was for the same period a year prior. However, every day the Treasury is still forking out billions of dollars to manage existing service payments to lenders.

The report demonstrates the government’s largest outlays: $953 billion so far this year for Social Security benefits, $588 billion for Medicare, and $409 billion for Medicaid. Net interest on public debt is a larger figure than both Medicare and Medicaid, totaling $628 billion for the seven months between October and April.

On those numbers, for the 212 days since October, the Treasury’s interest payments have averaged at just shy of $3 billion a day—$2.96 billion to be precise.

The interest payment figure is rising with every budget update that passes, the CBO said: “Outlays for net interest on the public debt rose by $41 billion (or 7%) because the debt was larger than it was in the first seven months of fiscal year 2025 and because of higher long-term interest rates. Declines in short-term interest rates partially mitigated the overall rise in interest payments.”

The overall debt picture has marginally improved: The April update shows government income totaled $3.3 trillion for the fiscal year so far, up from $3.1 trillion for October to April of 2025. Outlays have also increased, from $4.2 trillion to $4.3 trillion, meaning the deficit for FY26 stands at $955 billion, which is $94 billion less than for the same period in FY25.

A significant driver in this change was the revenue generated by Trump’s tariff agenda, intended to rebalance trade deals with every nation on the planet.

While geopolitical fallout and a level of market volatility followed, the income generated by the policy was significant: A 220% uplift in duties revenue compared to the previous year. In FY25 (between October and April), customs duties totaled $59 billion, but for the same period this year, the government has raked in $190 billion.

It’s the reason Wharton Professor Joao Gomes previously argued that the initially unpopular tariffs are here to stay—even if the Democrats win the next election. “The truth is governments need revenues and once you see the amount of revenue the tariffs bring, I think Democrats will be addicted to them as Republicans—or are as likely to be,” he told Wharton Business Daily last year.

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Europe Explores Wealth Taxes, Capital Taxes, and Exit Taxes

The European Commission has now openly published a two-volume study examining “net wealth taxes,” “capital taxes,” and perhaps most alarming of all, “exit taxes.” They are no longer hiding the agenda behind slogans about “fairness” or “solidarity.” The report openly discusses how to tax wealth, how to monitor ownership, how to close compliance gaps, and how to prevent capital from escaping. This is precisely what I have warned was coming as governments across Europe enter the terminal phase of a sovereign debt crisis.

The study was commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union and examines wealth taxation systems across Europe and beyond, including France, Germany, Spain, Norway, Switzerland, and Colombia. The report specifically focuses on recurring wealth taxes, inheritance taxes, capital gains taxes, and exit taxes designed to capture wealth before individuals relocate outside the jurisdiction.

The timing is everything. Europe’s economy is collapsing into what our Economic Confidence Model has projected would become a prolonged depressionary period into 2028. Manufacturing across Germany has been imploding, energy prices remain structurally elevated because of the self-inflicted sanctions war and Net Zero agenda, and capital has been fleeing Europe into the United States for years. The EU knows this. They see the money leaving. They understand that confidence in European governments is collapsing, and instead of reforming policy, they are moving toward containment.

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US National Debt Exceeds Size of Economy for 1st Time Since End of World War II – Reports

The US national debt exceeded the size of the country’s economy at the end of March for the first time since the end of World War II, Fox Business reported, citing data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Bureau reportedly estimated on Thursday that the national debt held by public amounted to $31.27 trillion as of March 31. GDP at that time was estimated at $31.22 trillion, meaning the US national debt exceeded 100% of the country’s economy.

Last time such a situation was observed in 1946, when the percentage of public debt to GDP was 106%, the report read.

On Thursday, Fitch Ratings suggested that US national debt, under its baseline scenario, would exceed 120% of GDP no later than 2027. The US public debt-to-GDP ratio was 116.6% in 2025, will reach 119.3% this year, and will increase to 122.2% in 2027, the agency estimated.

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Arizona Democratic Party Nearing $1 Million In Debt

The Arizona Democratic Party (ADP) is heading into the second quarter of this pivotal election year with a negative cash balance exceeding $720,000.

Their latest campaign finance report, filed last week, reflected total-to-date expenditures that nearly tripled their income: over $2.8 million compared to $1 million. 

For this first period, ADP’s expenditures did fall below their income: about $67,500 compared to $151,500. 

ADP experienced much stronger fundraising in the first quarter of 2022, the last midterm election year. The party’s reported income was over $370,000 and expenditures were $146,000 in that first quarter.

A stark difference was evident between ADP’s campaign finances for the last two off-years as well.

The party’s campaign finance report data for all of 2025 reflected income just below $857,000, but expenditures totaling over $2.7 million. In the first quarter of 2025, the party raised only about $210,000 and spent nearly $360,000.

Comparatively, by the end of 2023, ADP had $1.5 million more in income than expenditures. In the first quarter of 2023, ADP raised nearly $1 million and expended about $227,000.

Some among ADP leadership did warn last summer that the party would go broke by the end of the year. The party has dealt with publicized infighting for about a year.

Unlike other transfers listed, shared expenses with the Navajo County Democratic Committee (NCDC) were categorized as an “unlimited transfer” routing arrangement for ADP funds. 

NCDC has a surplus of nearly $1.6 million. Since the beginning of last year, NCDC has sent over $61,000 to ADP. 

In that same time period ADP sent back over $107,000 to NCDC, or $46,000 more than NCDC has sent. Their cycle to date reported a cash flow between the two totaling nearly $150,000. 

Navajo County accounted for ADP’s second-largest expenditure last year. 

AZ Free News contacted ADP about the state of their finances and their fiscal arrangement with NCDC. ADP didn’t respond to our inquiry.

Apart from NCDC, ADP’s number-one expenditure last year by far was $1.7 million last August to the Copper State Values PAC, established and run by Gov. Katie Hobbs’ campaign manager Nicole DeMont and treasurer Dacey Montoya. Since DeMont set up the PAC in December 2024, its primary function has appeared to be a funding arm for the Hobbs reelection campaign. 

The PAC sent back $94,500 a few months later, last December. 

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We spend (borrow) $22 billion every week to pay interest on National Debt — just the freaking interest. National Debt grows by $6 billion every day.

The problem with an increasing debt burden is that it costs more to maintain it: This is precisely the issue with which the U.S. Treasury is wrangling at present. As total U.S. national debt ticks over $39 trillion, the interest payments on that value are eye-watering: $529 billion for the first six months of the current fiscal year.

A new budget update from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released yesterday highlights that the government—according to preliminary estimates—paid out the near $530 billion between October 2025, when the fiscal year starts, and March 2026. This equates to more than $88 billion in interest payments a month, or more than $22 billion a week.

That means the service payments on public debt are roughly equal to spending for the same period on both the Department of Defense’s military budget and the Department of Education. These two outlays contribute costs of $461 billion and $70 billion respectively.

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Degrees of Seriousness on the National Debt

We hit an ignominious milestone recently when the national debt crossed $39 trillion. Naturally, regular citizens have chimed in about what’s to blame, who’s at fault, what can be done, or whether it even matters.

The discussion usually takes one or more of the following shapes.

If you’re new to the conversation, just dipping your toes in for the first time, you might think we can simply cut defense spending, or eliminate “waste, fraud, and abuse.” Considering how many military bases we have around the world, that’s a legit angle.

Likewise, when you factor in the Pentagon’s numerous failed audits and run-of-the-mill household items running into the thousands of dollars, you could kill two birds with one stone.

We’re just scratching the surface here, though.

If you’re somewhat serious, in addition to those, you would do well to point out discretionary spending. Those are monies that Congress approves annually, such as farm subsidies, spending on education and housing, etc. The nearly trillion-dollar defense budget is part of it.

However, all told, such spending barely makes up a quarter of the overall budget—if that.

If you’re more serious, you could include all the aforementioned items, plus the programs on autopilot: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. They are the three biggest items in the federal budget, eating up over half.

Interest on the debt, another expenditure on autopilot, recently overtook defense as the fourth largest item—but cannot be tackled directly. Only by addressing all the rest will that one be pushed down in the process.

Social Security’s financial health has been feeling the strain of an ever-growing number of beneficiaries and a declining birthrate.

By some estimates, what is in the Social Security Trust Fund will be insufficient to pay benefits within the next decade.

Regarding health insurance, its very structure is handicapped by its third-party payer nature. When consumers don’t know the actual price of the service they’re receiving, they’re less judicious in their spending.

Most Americans choose a low-deductible insurance plan where, after a visit or two to the doctor, all they pay is a $20 or $50 copay. Few have an idea of what the full menu of prices is for medical services.

At that point, general tax revenue, i.e., what comes out of your federal tax withholding, will be tapped to make up the difference.

One of the few less efficient enterprises than that is the government. That it is the genesis of Medicaid and Medicare exacerbates the problem.

Regardless, you know that you’ve encountered someone very serious about debt and deficits when he discusses attacking it at its root: the government’s ability to service it.

Investors (remember to check your 401k) will continue to buy US Treasurys if they believe Uncle Sam will continue to have the ability to pay the interest. That ability rests on the taxing power it has over productive citizens.

So, why not cut tax rates and reduce that ability?

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Hunter Biden Flees US, Claims He’s $17 Million in Debt

Hunter Biden has reportedly fled the US and is $17 million in debt.

Why doesn’t Hunter Biden just sell a few pieces of his highly coveted art? Don’t each one of Hunter Biden’s art pieces cost more than a Degas?

It is unclear where Hunter Biden is currently residing; however, last March, he was spotted out and about with his wife in South Africa.

Hunter’s wife, Melissa Cohen, is from South Africa.

Last year, Laura Loomer obtained photos of Hunter Biden, his second wife, Melissa Cohen, and their toddler son, Beau, on a lavish vacation in Cape Town, South Africa, with US Secret Service agents in tow.

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