The bond market is beginning to force reality onto Washington, and it may ultimately force an end to the Iran war long before politicians or diplomats are willing to admit it.
For months, investors have focused on missiles, retaliation headlines, oil chokepoints, and the possibility of a broader regional escalation from the Iran War. During the geopolitical noise, I urged readers not to overlook stress in financial markets that was happening before the war even started, namely in places like private credit and subprime auto lending. I called these “real crises” hiding behind record highs while “investors” chase gamma squeezes higher in an ongoing distortion feedback loop that is making things look far better than they are under the surface.
And now, beneath all the geopolitical noise, a much more serious, harder to ignore crisis is unfolding. As Cypher says in The Matrix:
“Fasten your seat belt Dorothy, ’cause Kansas is going bye-bye.”
This crisis is in the Treasury market. Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began.
Hellbound and Down 