While Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin cap was designed to counteract fiat inflation and mirror gold’s scarcity, a massive pool of permanently lost coins further tightens supply.
Estimates from on-chain analyses suggest that between 2.3 million and an incredible 7.8 million BTC (roughly between 11—37% of total supply), may have vanished forever, trapped in lost wallets, forgotten keys, or in addresses abandoned due to unexpected deaths. These ‘zombie’ or ‘ghost’ coins then effectively reduce Bitcoin’s effective circulating supply from the current 19.9 million to as low as a range of 12.1—17.6 million BTC.
A Donation to Everyone
As well as intensifying Bitcoin’s existing inherent scarcity, coins that permanently vanish boost the true value of all remaining Bitcoins. As Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator/creators, stated in a foresightful observation in April 2010 in a post on the BitcoinTalk forum: “Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.”
The lost coin range estimate (2.3—7.8 million) also comfortably exceeds the combined total of Bitcoin ETF and corporate treasury holdings which together total approximately 2.2 million BTC, a point rarely highlighted by a mainstream financial media fixated on the latest Blackrock Bitcoin ETF inflows and [Micro]Strategy’s latest BTC purchases.
No Keys, No Coins
Bitcoin’s rarity is thus magnified by these permanent losses, as the lost coin supply shock increases the value of every remaining coin, in contrast to traditional centralised assets such as stocks or bonds, In Bitcoin, there is no safety net. Once access is gone, the coins are effectively removed from circulation.
With a self-custodial architecture of ‘be your own bank’ but on an immutable blockchain, any lost and inaccessible coins on the Bitcoin network remain visible but untouchable. There is no bank and no bailout – only the owner and their private keys.
The familiar warning about exchange-held BTC of “not your keys, not your coins” now becomes the even more dramatic “no keys, no coins” in the off-exchange world.
Bitcoin relies on private keys (unique 256-bit cryptographic strings) to control and transfer ownership between addresses. Forgotten passwords, lost seed phrases, overwritten files, corrupted drives, or discarded hardware all result in irreversible inaccessibility.
Real-World Losses
Real-world cases highlight the dramatic scale and drama of lost Bitcoin. In 2013, the now infamous Welsh IT engineer James Howells accidentally discarded a hard drive containing private keys to 8,000 BTC in a landfill, worth roughly USD 900mn at current prices. But local city council rulings about environmental regulations prevent the obsessed Howells from launching a search for the lost hard drive.
Stefan Thomas, former Ripple CTO, lost access to 7,002 BTC (circa USD 777mn today) after forgetting his IronKey hard drive password, which locks permanently after 10 failed guesses. In January 2021, with two attempts left, Thomas described to the New York Times his repeated, desperate, and unsuccessful efforts to regain access.
Deaths also contribute to Bitcoin inaccessibility when holders die without succession plans. Gerald Cotten, CEO of Canadian crypto exchange QuadrigaCX, allegedly died in 2018 without revealing how to access USD 190mn in client funds, which included substantial Bitcoin holdings.
Romanian early Bitcoin miner Mircea Popescu drowned off a Costa Rica beach in 2021, widely rumoured to have left up to 1 million BTC inaccessible. (potentially worth USD 111bn). While the size of Popescu’s BTC holdings is unproven, he was known to have had sizeable holdings.
And then there’s Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, who pulled his own vanishing act in April 2011, leaving behind an estimated 1 million BTC mined between 2009— 2010. This Satoshi stash is now possibly ‘lost’ forever, or has been left intentionally dormant as a ‘donation’ to the network.
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