Author: HP McLovincraft

NATO partisans in both Europe and the United States are perpetual optimists about Ukraine’s prospective fortunes in its war against Russia.  Lately, there has been yet another inundation of such accounts in Western news media outlets.  Many of them emphasize that Moscow’s latest military offensive against Ukrainian ground forces has come to a halt with inconclusive results.  The lack of a decisive breakthrough, members of Ukraine’s fan club contend, means that Russian president Vladimir Putin has again failed in his quest to conquer Eastern Europe’s resilient “democratic” frontline state.  That version of recent developments contains just enough truth to gain credibility among gullible opinion shapers and political leaders in the United States and in most other NATO countries.

In fact, even if Kyiv continues to receive extensive financial and military support from Alliance members, Ukraine is no closer to defeating Russia than it was before.  Over the long run, Moscow is still likely to prevail against its weaker, less populous neighbor and Ukraine’s NATO supporters.  Moreover, Russia’s geostrategic position remains formidable.  It is especially significant that Putin’s diplomatic and military ties with China’s president, Xi Jinping, continue to be robust.

The West’s stubborn optimism about Ukraine’s victory prospects is reminiscent of the attitude of Chicago Cubs fans who spent more than a century of futility insisting that “this will be THE YEAR” their team would finally win the world series.  Their optimism did finally pay off in 2016, some 108 years after the team’s previous championship.  Unfortunately, neither Ukraine nor NATO has the luxury of waiting 108 years for their strategy to pay off.

Yet, excessive optimism has been the norm in Western capitals since the earliest weeks of Russia’s February 2022 enlarged military incursion into Ukraine.  The unexpected failure of the Kremlin’s invading forces to capture Kyiv led to widespread predictions in U.S. and European media circles and some NATO foreign ministries that Ukraine was poised to score a stunning upset victory.  Indeed, some Western analysts speculated that Kyiv would prevail in a matter of months or even weeks.

Similar flares of optimism and predictions of Ukraine’s imminent triumph have occurred on several occasions since then.  Examples include Kyiv’s initial successes in launching attacks using cheap drones against Russian targets, and the spectacular June 2025 assault deep inside Russia on the country’s strategic bomber fleet.  There were also spikes of optimism throughout NATO whenever a Ukrainian military ground offensive scored even the most limited gains or a Russian offensive bogged down.  Lost in all the hoopla on the multiple occasions, though, was mounting evidence that Russia was slowly making gains in this meat grinder of a war.  That fundamental reality has not changed despite recent developments.

Indeed, the latest events signal more of the same in terms of the conflict’s trajectory and ultimate outcome.  Russia has made new territorial advances into Ukrainian territory, but the gains are minimal.  Both sides have made larger and more lethal attacks than before with drone and missile strikes.  Despite being more destructive than previous assaults and inflicting more suffering on already traumatized civilians, however, the latest blows have not been large enough to produce a decisive military outcome.

New predictions throughout the NATO countries that Kyiv is finally poised to prevail in the war are based on little more than wishful thinking.  The expectation seems to be that because Ukraine has been able to hold out this long against a larger opponent, Moscow cannot continue to sacrifice money, armaments, and manpower at this pace much longer.  Either Putin will seek a face-saving exit that includes making major concessions to Ukraine, the optimistic scenario concludes, or Russia’s oligarchs will finally replace their country’s aging, flailing leader.

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