Tag: economy

Blue States Starting to Curb ‘Free’ Healthcare to Migrants as Budgets Spin Out of Control

A host of deep blue states are quietly pulling back from their generous programs of “free” healthcare to migrants as federal dollars dry up and their budgets continue to spiral into the red.

With the Trump administration beginning to close the spigot of billions in federal aid that many states lavishly spent caring for illegal migrants, sates including California, Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oregon Washington, and the District of Columbia are finding that they cannot afford to replace the chocked off federal dollars with their own state budget dollars. This reality setting in has caused state officials to begin scaling back their freebies to illegals, which all come at the expense of American citizens.

According to the Washington Examiner, 14 states have had been devoting untold millions to migrants, for their children, and for pregnant, non-citizen women.

But after President Donald Trump signed his “Big Beautiful” spending bill, cutting billions in federal aid with cuts to Medicaid, CHIP, Medicare, and Obamacare insurance subsidies, many states have been forced to make decisions about their migrant programs.

The cutbacks also reflect the Democrats’ difficulty in funding their hugely expensive urban political machines. Those “Sanctuary City Ponzi scheme” political machines need poor migrants to help conduit federal funds back to local city and state politicians, partly because many productive Americans move away to low-migration cities and states that have lower taxes, less diversity, better schools, higher wages, and cheaper housing.

Thus far, California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and Washington the District of Columbia have already begun cutting free migrant healthcare budgets. And several others are in the process of evaluating similar measures.

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Canada’s government debt projected to hit $2.44 trillion, nearly double since 2007: Fraser Institute

Canada’s combined federal and provincial government debt is projected to nearly double from pre-2008 financial crisis levels, reaching an estimated $2.44 trillion, according to a new report from the Fraser Institute.

The report, titled The Growing Debt Burden for Canadians: 2025 Edition, says combined government net debt has ballooned from roughly $1.21 trillion in 2007/08 to more than $2.3 trillion today, with debt continuing to climb. 

Researchers warn that the debt load is growing faster than the economy itself. The combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 53.2 percent in 2007/08 to nearly 75 percent.

“Government debt — federally and in most provinces — has grown substantially over the past 17 years,” said Fraser Institute fiscal studies director Jake Fuss, co-author of the report. 

The report measures “net debt,” meaning total government liabilities minus financial assets held by governments. The study argues that persistent deficits today will translate into higher taxes and higher debt servicing costs in the future. 

Debt interest payments are already becoming a major expense. Another Fraser Institute study estimates federal and provincial governments will spend a combined $92.5 billion on debt interest payments in 2024/25 alone. 

On a per-person basis, the combined debt burden varies widely across the country. Alberta has the lowest combined debt per person at roughly $40,939, while Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest at nearly $68,861 per resident. Quebec and Ontario also rank among the most indebted provinces per capita.

The Fraser Institute describes itself as an independent, non-partisan public policy think tank.

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House Passes E15 Bill as Government Panics Over Energy Crisis Begins

Congress is pushing nationwide year-round E15 gasoline because they are worried about fuel supply disruptions and soaring prices as the war cycle intensifies. They call it “consumer choice” and “energy independence,” but when you strip away the political marketing, what they are really doing is diluting the fuel supply because they are terrified of shortages and price spikes.

The House just passed H.R. 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, by a vote of 218-203. The bill would permanently allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline nationwide. E15 is gasoline blended with 15% ethanol instead of the standard 10%. Congress and the EPA are presenting this as some patriotic victory for farmers and consumers while pretending Americans are not noticing what is really taking place.

The government keeps saying E15 lowers prices at the pump. Of course, it does on paper. You are blending more ethanol into the fuel supply. Ethanol contains less energy per gallon than pure gasoline. That means your mileage declines and your tank empties faster. People end up buying more fuel more often while politicians brag that prices “fell” a few cents per gallon. Americans are paying more for less while Washington pretends this is economic progress.

The EPA openly admitted the purpose behind the emergency waivers was to “prevent disruption in America’s fuel supply” as the Iran war pushed energy markets into panic. They are not doing this because the economy is strong. They are doing this because they are worried about supply itself.

“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers. Allowing the summer sale of E-15 will provide drivers more options at the pump, and deliver a bigger domestic market for American farmers,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. The government is congratulating itself for putting lipstick on a pig. Trump spent years condemning Biden’s energy policies that led to elevated prices for different reasons. Washington does not want voters to look at an $ 8-per-gallon situation and suddenly realize that government policy has failed yet again because politicians continually act in their own self-interest while jeopardizing the entire country. The people always suffer when government instigates war. Quite unfortunate as Trump promised to keep America out of the Middle East, but somewhere along the way he morphed from a businessman into a politician. Human nature is consistent.

Governments dilute and stretch what they can at the beginning of a crisis. They lower standards quietly while telling the public everything is under control. You see it in currencies, banking, food quality, and now fuel. The objective is always the same: make a limited supply appear larger. Could this improve consumer sentiment regarding energy? People are still going to pay more at the pump. The end result is higher prices which equates to angry and fearful consumers. It is absolutely insulting for our overlords to question our intelligence in this manner. They genuinely believe we are too stupid to notice.

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The Bond Market Is About To Break Washington

The bond market is beginning to force reality onto Washington, and it may ultimately force an end to the Iran war long before politicians or diplomats are willing to admit it.

For months, investors have focused on missiles, retaliation headlines, oil chokepoints, and the possibility of a broader regional escalation from the Iran War. During the geopolitical noise, I urged readers not to overlook stress in financial markets that was happening before the war even started, namely in places like private credit and subprime auto lending. I called these “real crises” hiding behind record highs while “investors” chase gamma squeezes higher in an ongoing distortion feedback loop that is making things look far better than they are under the surface.

And now, beneath all the geopolitical noise, a much more serious, harder to ignore crisis is unfolding. As Cypher says in The Matrix: 

“Fasten your seat belt Dorothy, ’cause Kansas is going bye-bye.”

This crisis is in the Treasury market. Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began.

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How Much Smaller Is the Chinese Economy Than the U.S.?

The U.S. economy is $11.2 trillion larger than China’s. The average American is roughly six times richer than the average PRC citizen. At China’s claimed 5% annual growth rate, which is likely inflated, it would take approximately 30 years of uninterrupted expansion for China to reach parity with the United States.

However, Donald Trump’s tariffs may permanently foreclose China’s access to the U.S. market as a low-cost export platform. China’s population is shrinking, with births in 2025 falling to 7.92 million, less than half the number recorded a decade ago, and the working-age population declining by 6.62 million in that year alone.

Beijing has already acknowledged the demographic reality by downgrading its own long-term GDP growth target from 4.8% to 4.2% annually through 2035. At 4.2%, the convergence timeline stretches to roughly 40 years. The IMF, however, projects China’s growth rate dropping to 3.4% by 2030. At that rate, China may never reach parity with the U.S., which has grown at an average rate of just over 2% for roughly a century.

Those projections also assume no shocks. Manufacturing is already shifting away from China at a measurable rate: China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 21.6% in 2017 to 7.1% by May 2025, the lowest since 2001. Every percentage point of manufacturing that relocates to Vietnam, India, or Mexico is output, employment, and tax revenue that China does not generate. The 30-year scenario is Beijing’s best case. The evidence points toward China never reaching parity with the US.

The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook puts the nominal gap between the U.S. and Chinese economies at $11.2 trillion. Using 2024 full-year actuals, U.S. GDP stood at $29.18 trillion against China’s $18.74 trillion, a difference of $10.4 trillion.

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) claim to legitimacy rests on its ability to grow the economy.  After the Tiananmen Square massacre, Deng Xiaoping forged an informal social contract: the state would open the economy and deliver prosperity; the people would not challenge party authority. This is why the CCP is so concerned that GDP growth has declined steadily over the past 30 years, and that the decline has accelerated since President Trump began the trade war during his first term.

For decades, companies from around the world have manufactured in China to take advantage of low labor costs and then exported to the U.S. market. During the years of high economic growth, salaries in China increased, and profit margins narrowed. With tariffs now significantly higher, manufacturing in China has become less competitive, and investment has been redirected.

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Iraq’s Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes

  • Iraq’s oil production has collapsed to just 1.39 million bpd after the Strait of Hormuz blockade stranded exports.
  • Baghdad is urgently trying to revive northern export routes through Turkey, including the Kirkuk-Ceyhan system and a new Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline.
  • China is re-emerging as a major strategic player in Iraq’s energy infrastructure, with Chinese firms heavily involved in Baghdad’s new north-south pipeline expansion.

April was indeed the cruellest month for decades for Iraq’s crude oil production, with an average of 1.389 million barrels per day (bpd) over the period. This compares to a monthly average of 3.47 million bpd from January 2002 to the end of March this year, and an average of over 4.1 million bpd in the three months leading up to the onset of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February. The last time oil production fell to the current level in the country was in the early 2000s, during and immediately following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Even for a diversified economy, this would spell bad news, but for Iraq, it is existential, with over 90% of its annual budget historically coming from oil and around 95% of that black gold having to pass through the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz before it is monetised. The effective closure of that key export route meant that Iraq’s domestic oil storage tanks quickly filled to maximum capacity, and because it has extremely limited options to transport its crude elsewhere, it has been forced to shut down production wells entirely. As disastrous as it is now, even worse may be to come soon, as these shutdowns can cause permanent damage to wells through a loss of reservoir pressure, water infiltration, and corrosion, among other factors. In Iraq’s case, many of its biggest mature southern fields are highly susceptible to these problems. This is why the race has been on in Baghdad to secure other export options, most notably now, pipeline options in the north, but these bring their own sets of problems with them.

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Mamdani’s ‘Balanced Budget’ Is an Accounting Atrocity

In mid-May, after extending the executive deadline, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani released his $124.7 billion Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 Executive Budget. 

After warning that NYC faces a budget crisis of “historic magnitude” in late April, Mamdani now assures the 8.5 million residents of the Big Apple that the city is on “firm financial footing” after he “balanced the budget” “without raising property taxes” or “slashing services.”

While it is certainly true that Mamdani did not slash services or raise property taxes even higher than they already are, it is ludicrous for him to declare that NYC’s budget is sound and sustainable.

Aside from Mamdani’s smoke-and-mirrors budget summary, the harsh reality is that the Big Apple is bankrupt. 

According to NYC Comptroller Mark Levine, the “$2.2 billion budget shortfall for FY2026 and projected $10.4 billion gap for FY2027… is the first time since the Great Recession that the City faces a budget shortfall of this magnitude.”

Based on Mamdani’s “balanced budget,” the FY 2026 and FY 2027 deficits are no longer a concern. 

Much of the gap has been taken care of by what Mamdani calls a “partnership with Albany.” New Yorkers outside of the Big Apple call it a bailout.

“Thanks to Governor Kathy Hochul, Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, the City secured an additional $4 billion in state support and actions to help stabilize the budget,” Mamdani bluntly put it.

However, Albany could not supply enough money to make the short-term math work.

Thus, Mamdani’s balanced budget relies upon accounting gimmicks and “new tax revenue.”

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Britain Desperate for Oil

Britain is now discovering you cannot dismantle your industrial and energy base, wage war on domestic production, impose endless climate regulations, and still expect to maintain a functioning economy. Reality eventually arrives no matter how many politicians attempt to legislate against it.

The UK is quietly loosening oil and gas restrictions because the country is becoming desperate. After years of aggressively pushing Net Zero policies, discouraging North Sea investment, raising windfall taxes on producers, and pretending renewable systems alone could carry an advanced industrial economy, Britain is being forced to confront the simple reality that energy shortages destroy economies from the inside out.

The North Sea once represented one of the great strategic advantages for Britain. During the peak years around the late 1990s and early 2000s, the UK was producing nearly 4.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. That production has collapsed by more than 70% over the past two decades. At the same time, Britain became increasingly dependent on imported energy while shutting down domestic capacity.

What politicians never understand is that energy is not just another sector of the economy. Energy is the economy. Every industry depends upon it. Food production depends on it. Transportation depends on it. Manufacturing depends on it. Once energy prices rise high enough, inflation spreads through the entire system because energy sits underneath every layer of economic activity.

Britain now faces exactly the trap I warned Europe was heading toward. Deindustrialization combined with rising debt and declining living standards. Manufacturing weakens, capital flees, energy costs rise, and governments respond with more taxation and regulation which only accelerates the collapse further. This becomes a vicious cycle.

The desperation is now becoming obvious. The UK government is reportedly reconsidering restrictions on North Sea drilling and attempting to stabilize investment conditions because energy firms were already beginning to abandon projects entirely. The punitive tax structure imposed on producers created massive uncertainty while investment dried up. Companies simply stopped committing capital because governments kept changing the rules in the middle of the game.

Europe is in a depressionary phase while capital continues moving toward countries with stronger energy and industrial positions. You cannot build an economy entirely on financial services, bureaucracy, migration, and government spending while destroying the productive base underneath society itself.

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US Real Estate Remains Stale

April existing home sales in the U.S. came in at an annualized pace of just 4.02 million units, barely rising 0.2% from March and missing expectations yet again. We are now looking at one of the weakest spring housing seasons in decades, despite population growth and years of underbuilding.

Real estate has always been driven by confidence in the future. People buy homes when they believe their job is secure, taxes will remain manageable, and the economy is stable enough to justify taking on long-term debt. That confidence has been steadily collapsing under inflation, rising insurance costs, property taxes, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6% earlier this year and everyone rushed out claiming the housing market was recovering. Then rates shot back toward 6.4%-6.5% as inflation fears returned and war tensions escalated globally. That immediately froze buyers again. A $500,000 mortgage today carries monthly payments hundreds of dollars higher than buyers were paying only a few years ago. For younger generations already struggling with rent, food, insurance, and student debt, ownership is becoming mathematically impossible in many regions.

The median existing home price still rose to $417,700 in April, marking another record high for the month. This is the real crisis. Sales volumes are stagnating, yet prices remain elevated because inventory is still historically tight. We do not have a healthy market. We have a distorted market where people locked into 2%-3% mortgages refuse to sell because replacing that loan with a 6.5% mortgage would double their financing costs. That traps inventory and prevents natural market clearing.

The National Association of Realtors admitted inventory rose 5.8% to 1.47 million homes, but even that remains well below historical norms. A balanced housing market typically requires roughly a 5-6 month supply. We remain around 4.4 months. That means the market is simultaneously weak and expensive, which is the worst possible combination for society because it destroys mobility and locks younger generations out of ownership entirely.

What is unfolding now mirrors the broader sovereign debt crisis model. Governments kept rates artificially low for years to support endless borrowing and deficit spending. That created massive asset inflation in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Once inflation appeared, central banks had no choice but to raise rates, but they cannot normalize rates without crushing the very debt bubble they created. Housing is now caught directly in that trap.

The regional split is also important. The South and Midwest saw slight sales increases while the West continued weakening. That reflects the capital flow trend we have been monitoring for years. People are fleeing high-tax, high-cost regions in favor of states with lower taxes and cheaper living costs. California, New York, Illinois, and parts of the Northeast continue losing population to states such as Florida and Texas. Real estate is no longer just about location. It has become a referendum on government policy itself.

The broader danger is what comes next. Real estate historically drives consumer confidence because homes are the largest asset for most households. When housing freezes, consumer spending eventually follows. Construction slows, furniture sales weaken, appliance demand drops, and local tax revenues decline. The ripple effects spread throughout the entire economy.

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We Are 6 Months From Global Food Shortages Because Farmers Are Facing A Quadruple Whammy Crisis

We have never faced anything quite like this. Diesel fuel and fertilizer have become far more expensive as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and extreme weather is playing havoc with crops all over the planet. Here in the United States, we just experienced the driest first three months of a year in recorded history. No, that isn’t an exaggeration. Now a “Super El Niño” is coming, and that means that drought conditions are going to get even worse in many areas of the world. The “Super El Niño” of 1877-1878 resulted in widespread droughts that killed more than 50 million people, and now we are being warned that the upcoming “Super El Niño” could be even worse. Our farmers have never faced a “perfect storm” of this magnitude, and global food production is going to be way down in the months ahead.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization is publicly warning that a severe global food crisis could strike about 6 months from now if something really dramatic does not happen…

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months unless governments act quickly, the Food and Agriculture Organization warned Wednesday.

Decisions now by farmers and governments on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices will determine whether food prices spike later this year or in early 2027, the agency said.

I don’t know what national governments around the world are supposed to do.

They can’t create fertilizer out of thin air.

Thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, millions of farmers all over the northern hemisphere didn’t get the fertilizer that they needed for the spring planting season.

UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo is telling us that as a result “many places in the world will have problems of food shortage” once harvest season arrives…

Food shortages are expected to hit many parts of the world from September or October following a fertilizer production plunge, the U.N. Development Program’s head said on Monday.

“In September, (or) October, many places in the world will have problems of food shortage,” as agricultural production is expected to be much lower following the fertilizer production slump resulting from high oil prices amid Middle East conflicts, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo said in an interview in Tokyo.

Even if fertilizer is available, many farmers simply cannot afford it.

In fact, one recent survey discovered that 70 percent of U.S. farmers could not afford to buy all of the fertilizer that they needed for the spring planting season because it has become so expensive.

Meanwhile, diesel has become painfully expensive as well.

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