Tag: economy

Trump’s Iran War Slowing Global Economic Growth to Lowest Level Since Pandemic: World Bank

The World Bank on Thursday lowered its global growth forecast for the remainder of 2026 as the illegal US-Israeli war of choice on Iran drives up energy prices, inflation, and the cost of debt.

“The global economy is facing another major shock,” the World Bank’s latest biannual Global Economic Prospects report states. “The conflict in the Middle East has triggered sharp increases in energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures, and fueled expectations of tighter monetary policy.”

“Global growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2026, from 2.9% in 2025 – the lowest rate since the Covid-19 pandemic – amid weaker prospects for economies dependent on energy imports and those directly affected by hostilities,” the report continues. “Activity is expected to firm in 2027-28 as energy supplies recover, monetary easing resumes, and trade strengthens.”

The Iran War has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 30% of the world’s fertilizer and 20% of its oil previously passed. In addition to increasing the risk of a global food crisis, the strait’s closure has sent fuel and fertilizer prices soaring, with US farm diesel costing nearly 50% more than it did on the war’s eve in February and various fertilizer products spiking by between one-quarter and one-half.

The war has affected the economies of countries far removed from Iran, as the World Bank reports forecasts that “growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to slow to 3.6% this year.”

“The level of per capita income across EMDEs excluding China and India, relative to advanced economies, is not expected to return to the pre-pandemic level until after 2028, implying nearly a decade of lost income convergence,” the international financial institution predicted.

World Bank Group president Ajay Banga said in a statement Thursday that “developing countries have faced a series of challenges over the last decade.”

“The impact differs by country, but the basic test is the same: Protect people and preserve stability today, without giving up on growth and jobs tomorrow,” Banga added. “In response to the current shock, we are providing liquidity where it is needed now – and we are ready with additional financing, guarantees, and private-sector solutions if pressures deepen. Our job is to help countries steady the ship, keep reforms moving, and emerge stronger on the other side.”

The bank said in April that up to $100 billion would be made available over the next 15 months for nations suffering the most acute economic shocks caused by the war.

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Inflation Reaches 4.2% as Prices Outpace Paychecks

There is a lot of political discourse about “affordability,” but the meaning of the term can be difficult to pin down.

Is it just a jargony way of talking about high nominal prices? Is it really all about housing? Could it be, as President Donald Trump has suggested, a “con job” invented by Democrats to make his administration look bad? Different people will have different answers, and I suspect we will continue to debate those questions through the midterms and into the 2028 presidential cycle.

But probably the most straightforward way to think about the “affordability” question is the relationship between two figures published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): average hourly earnings and the consumer price index. When the former is rising at a faster rate than the latter, the pay for the average worker is rising faster than prices. For that worker, life is getting more affordable.

When inflation is rising faster than wages, however, the opposite is true. And that’s what is happening now.

Wages grew by 3.4 percent over the past year, the BLS reported last week. On Wednesday morning, the BLS reported that inflation has climbed by 4.2 percent over the past 12 months, thanks in large part to a sharp increase in prices (fuel prices, in particular) since the start of the Iran war in March.

With prices rising faster than wages, the BLS also reported on Wednesday that “real average hourly earnings”—that is, wage growth once you account for inflation—were down by 0.3 percent in May.

Averages only get you so far, of course. Some Americans are feeling the sting of inflation more than others, depending on their purchasing habits and lifestyles, and wages are never rising for all workers equally. Still, there’s no getting around it: Life is less affordable now than it was a few months ago—before the Trump administration steered the country into a war of choice in the Middle East.

And, yes, the runaway inflation that America experienced during the first part of President Joe Biden’s term in office was a lot worse than what the country is seeing now. But since early 2023, wage growth had consistently outpaced inflation even as inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target annual rate of 2 percent.

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Oil Execs Warn Trump Gas Prices Are About to Get Hell of a Lot Worse

Gas prices could climb even higher in the coming months.

Industry officials have already warned the White House that the prices could spike yet again due to rapidly diminishing inventories, reported The Washington Post Thursday.

Since the beginning of the Iran war, commercial and government inventories have supplemented gas consumption across the U.S. The reserves have allowed prices to hover around $4.50 per gallon for the last four months—but that could change very quickly, according to oil and gas executives, who are often loath to make such alarming predictions.

“We’re sounding the alarm on these inventories going to record lows,” American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers told Fox Business. “We have to solve this problem in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Some inventories could be wiped out in a matter of weeks, according to the Post—just in time for summer holidays.

“I have absolutely no doubt the White House—from the president on down—is fully aware of the nearly universal alarm among oil companies and analysts about the direction of travel for oil prices this summer,” Bob McNally, a former Bush administration energy adviser, told the Post.

Yet Trump has been remarkably cavalier about the rising costs. With inflation at a three-year high, Trump stunned reporters, lawmakers, and voters alike on Wednesday with just four words: “I love the inflation,” he said.

“I love it,” he insisted, pledging that oil prices will drop “like a rock” when the war ends.

But the end of the war seems to be nowhere in sight. U.S. forces bombed Iran through two nights this week, part of the White House’s latest strategy to force Tehran to make a deal, despite the obvious risks of escalation.

“If we need to negotiate with bombs, we will negotiate with bombs,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday. “We will strike them hard tonight and hopefully Iran makes a good decision.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s allies aren’t so sure that their political movement will weather the brewing economic storm. The far-right populist rode the 2024 campaign on vehement promises of affordability; through his presidency, he swore that Americans would see lower utility bills, cheaper groceries, and more American-based jobs. But that hasn’t been the case.

Instead, as millions of Americans struggle with the rising cost of living and companies contend with rattled supply chains, the president’s inner circle fear that it might be too late to fix the problem for Trump’s midterm-dependent acolytes.

“Whether it’s peak inflation or not, it doesn’t matter,” one former Trump administration official told Politico. “The die has been cast in terms of how people are looking at the economy.”

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NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani Announces Multi-Million ‘Investment’ in Gender Affirming Care, Weeks After Claiming City is in ‘Historic’ Budget Crisis

Back in April, New York City’s new Democratic Socialist (communist) Mayor Zohran Mamdani declared that the city was in the midst of an ‘historic’ budget crisis. He framed it as a very serious problem and even claimed that unless new sources of revenue were found, people would be denied various services.

Now, the mayor is announcing that his administration is making a $15 million ‘investment’ in providing ‘gender affirming care’ a term that is flowery language used to describe genital mutilation and the prescribing of hormones.

So which is it? Is the city really that broke, or is there really enough money to spend a cool $15 million on trans drugs and surgeries? And since when was it the responsibility of a city government to provide ANY of this to the people who live there?

Mamdani made the comments at a ‘Pride’ party at city hall.

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An Unwarranted War, a Global Economic Drag

When the US-Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, the immediate concern centered on oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz.

But the real danger was never confined to crude oil. The crisis has evolved into a broader energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial shock.

What began as a regional conflict has become a structural drag on the global economy.

Prolonged pain

Recent warnings by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank underscore the same point.

Even if military hostilities continue to ease, energy systems, shipping networks and commodity supply chains will require many months – and in some cases years – to normalize. The result is likely to be a weaker global economy in the second half of 2026 and throughout 2027.

The core issue is persistence. The IMF warns that prolonged energy disruptions could push the world toward recessionary conditions. The World Bank expects rising energy prices in 2026, while the IEA reports tightening supplies, falling inventories and continuing refinery disruptions.

The world faces a prolonged period of elevated energy costs, fragmented trade routes, higher insurance premiums, supply-chain restructuring and slower productivity growth.

US: Resilient but increasingly stagflationary

The United States is better positioned than most advanced economies because of domestic energy production and continued AI-led investment. Yet, higher fuel, petrochemical and transport costs are already feeding through the economy.

Gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, while energy-intensive industries face sustained cost pressures.

Growth is likely to remain positive through 2027, but below pre-conflict expectations. Inflation may prove more persistent than policymakers anticipated.

The principal risk is not recession but a stagflationary environment characterized by slower growth, elevated prices and tighter financial conditions.

By targeting Iran’s strategic capabilities while expanding military deployments across the region, the US has contributed to a prolonged risk premium in global energy markets.

At the same time, it has left Europe, Japan, South Korea and much of the developing world highly vulnerable to the resulting energy shock.

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Inflation rises to 4.2 percent in May, highest level in 3 years

The annual inflation rate increased to its highest point in three years as the cost of energy and other goods rose due to the Iran war, according to data released by the Department of Labor on Wednesday.

The consumer price index (CPI), a popular gauge of inflation, rose 4.2 percent over the past 12 months and 0.5 percent in May alone.

The CPI increase matched the Wall Street consensus and marks the first time that it has surpassed 4 percent since May, 2023, making it the highest rate since April of that year.

Energy prices rose 3.9 percent in May after having risen 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March, accounting for over 60 percent of the monthly all-items increase.

The Energy Information Administration reported that the average price for gas reached $4.49 in mid-May, compared to $4.09 in mid-April. In June, the national average has so far dropped to $4.15, according to AAA. 

The price of fuel has kept increasing as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran drag out, likely threatened by the latest exchanges, which could threaten an already fragile two-month ceasefire.

The food index also saw an increase of 3.1 percent over the past year, with a 0.2 percent rise in May. All other items saw a nearly 3-percent increase in the last year after also rising by 0.2 percent in May. 

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Americans’ Average Monthly Mortgage Payment Tops $2000 For The First Time Ever

U.S. households are being financially squeezed at a level that we have never seen before. I have often said that we are in a long-term cost of living crisis that never seems to end, and that is not an exaggeration at all. Just about everything has been getting more expensive in recent years, and as a result our standard of living has been going down. In many areas of the country, you now have to earn six figures just to live a basic middle class lifestyle. The numbers that I am going to share with you in this article may be hard to believe, but they are very real. Inflation has been out of control for many years, and hard working American families are being absolutely crushed.

For the first time in U.S. history, the average monthly mortgage payment now exceeds $2,000…

Homeowners faced a sticker shock at the end of 2025 as the average monthly mortgage payment topped $2,000 for the first time—a historic milestone reflecting the combined pressure of high home prices and elevated interest rates.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the average payment for existing mortgage holders climbed to $2,005, representing a striking 44% surge compared to 2021, according to the latest quarterly outstanding mortgage report from the Realtor.com® economic research team.

In other words, the typical homeowner saw their monthly mortgage payment jump by more than $600 in just three years, an eye-watering surge.

Take another look at those figures.

All along, federal bureaucrats have been feeding us numbers that show that the inflation rate is very low, but the average monthly mortgage payment has risen by 44 percent just since 2021.

Needless to say, someone is not telling us the truth.

But that isn’t even the worst part.

Today, what the average American family is paying for health insurance each month is even higher than the average monthly mortgage payment…

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Protesters Target NV Energy At Utility Conference As Anger Over Soaring Electricity Prices Boils Over

Protesters shouting affordability complaints and chanting slogans interrupted a speech by NV Energy President and CEO Brandon Barkhuff on Wednesday. Barkhuff was speaking to some 1,000 utility executives and electricity industry stakeholders during the Edison Electric Institute 2026 conference at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas.

After being escorted out by security, the protesters spoke to the media outside the hotel to demand the cancellation of a daily demand charge for NV Energy customers slated to take effect Jan. 1, 2027, as well as to demand action on clean energy and high electricity bills.

The confrontation shows the extent to which energy costs have stoked public anger, raising pressure on utilities and their regulators.  

Utilities have made affordability a cornerstone of their public messaging as they prepare to spend over $1 trillion over the next five years to meet a surge in demand, much of it driven by large-load data centers. 

In Nevada, The Public Utility Commission in September unanimously approved a demand charge and new rate design for NV Energy customers in the southern portion of the state. It also approved changing the utility’s net metering design in ways that solar advocates said would weaken customer protections and set back Nevada’s clean energy goals. 

“In Las Vegas, one of the fastest-warming cities in the country, you cannot live without electricity,” said protest organizer Leslie Vega. Vega, a climate equity policy fellow at the Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada, said she’s lost loved ones to heatstroke and sees the demand charge as air conditioning rationing.

“We’re not just asking for lower rates. We’re asking for survival,” she said.

NV Energy issued a statement following the protest citing “misinformation and confusion” about the daily demand charge. 

“Daily demand [charges] will lower bills for the majority of our southern Nevada customers,” it said. “We understand that energy costs are an important issue for our customers, and that’s exactly why daily demand [charges are] critical in stopping subsidies that shift costs to other customers.”

Demand charges are tied to a customer’s peak electricity use, and NV Energy’s daily demand charge is based on the energy a customer consumes during a 15-minute period of peak usage each day. The utility expects the demand charge to add about 49 cents/day to a typical customer’s bill, but says most southern Nevada customers will see monthly bills that are similar to or slightly lower under the new structure.

Regulators and the utility have said that consumers who are concerned about potential spikes on their bill from the charge can shift their electricity use, but advocates say that’s not realistic, especially for cooling. Las Vegas temperatures on Wednesday reached 103 degrees as the city experiences its longest 100-degree streak of the year, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

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If This Is Winning, America Can’t Afford Much More of It

“We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, ‘Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.’”—Donald Trump

Donald Trump promised Americans they would get tired of winning.

If this is what winning looks like, America can’t afford much more of it.

We are losing ground economically. We are losing credibility abroad. We are losing tourists, workers, stability, trust, constitutional guardrails, and whatever remained of the illusion that the government answers to “we the people.”

The tourism economy is taking a hit, with international visitors increasingly reluctant to come to the United States. Even migration—the lifeblood of America’s economic growth, innovation, labor force and national renewal—is now moving in the wrong direction. Fewer people are coming in, more Americans are leaving, and by some estimates the country has already crossed into negative net migration.

That is not the mark of a nation “winning.” It is the mark of a nation people are increasingly choosing to escape.

Even the looming World Cup—normally an economic windfall for tourism, travel and hospitality—is being shadowed by the administration’s immigration crackdown, detention protests and threats to disrupt international travel at key airports.

That is what happens when a nation treats visitors, immigrants and dissenters as threats first and human beings second: people stop coming, businesses suffer, and fear becomes official policy.

The economy, despite the administration’s relentless victory laps, is flashing warning signs: downgraded growth, strained consumers, rising costs, depleted savings, and policy chaos that leaves families, small businesses and entire industries guessing what fresh disruption tomorrow will bring.

We are being worn down by the losses.

Meanwhile, the man who promised to end wars has presided over their continuation and expansion. The man who promised to bring prices down has helped drive uncertainty up. The man who promised to drain the swamp has turned government into a spoils system for loyalists, cronies, contractors, oligarchs and power brokers. The man who promised law and order has treated the law as something to be weaponized against enemies and waived for friends.

This is not winning.

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The United States Of Austrian Economics

Earlier in the week, on Monday, Axios reported that “Iran threatened to abandon the negotiations with the US over Israel’s actions in Lebanon,” with inside sources suggesting that Trump called Netanyahu “crazy.” While Trump did not comment on the exact language, he did confirm the use of “expletives” in an interview with the New York Post on Wednesday that he and Netanyahu haven’t exactly been seeing eye-to-eye: “I was a little perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon. You know, at some point, I said, ‘Bibi, we gotta stop this. You gotta stop it.’” Since then, the US has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, “contingent on a complete cessation of fire by Hezbollah and evacuation of operatives from Lebanese territory south of the Litani River.” However, if one looks at the state of the current ceasefire between the US and Iran, one may be tempted to manage their expectations with regards to how long the ceasefire will last, and if this will set a foundation for meaningful negotiations between Washington and Tehran. More importantly, Hezbollah, who operates independently from (and often against the interests of) the Lebanese Government, has not yet indicated that they agree to the terms of the ceasefire. After the announcement, brent crude oil 1-month futures dropped a little more than $1 to $96.7/bbl.

According to Bloomberg, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has published a “restricted” document which reveals that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher today than it was before the war began. Specifically, prior to the war, the IAEA was allowed to inspect Iranian enriched uranium, but such inspections have since largely halted. However, it should be noted that the IAEA was always only inspected where the IRGC told them they were allowed to, and many suspected that nuclear proliferation was happening behind the scenes, in facilities that were not accessible to the IAEA.

Tariff headlines are once again entering the news circuit. Trump has lowered the benchmark of US-content necessary for a copper product to be considered “US-made” and therefore exempt from the 50% Section 232 tariffs. However, there was also bad news for some US trading partners, as the USTR has announced proposed tariffs of 10-12.5% under Section 301. There is also the proposal of 25% tariffs on Brazil, which President Lula responded to by saying “he could not accept the treatment” his country had received.

Kevin Warsh appointed Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil to support him as Fed Chair. Winfree was working at the Heritage Foundation when Project 2025 was published in 2022, and contributed the chapter dedicated to the Federal Reserve. While Warsh has criticized the Fed himself, citing an article he wrote, published in the Wall Street Journal in November of 2025 called “The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership,” Warsh’s criticism is aimed at the how the Fed was being run. Some of Winfree’s comments echo those of Warsh (or perhaps Warsh echoed Winfree, given the chronology), such as critiques of mission creep, like how “political pressure has led the Federal Reserve to use its power to regulate banks as a way to promote politically favorable initiatives including those aligned with ESG objectives.” However, the bulk of Winfree’s manifesto takes aim at the Fed as an institution, arguing that it “lacks both operational effectiveness and political independence.” Winfree offers several recommendations, including the following:

  • Eliminate the dual mandate: Winfree argues that expansive monetary policy (the labor mandate) may “inadvertently contribute to recessions” as it provides “easy money” which “causes the clustering of failures that can lead to a recession.” He advocates instead of a focus on dollar protection and managing low and stable inflation.
  • Eliminate the Federal Reserve’s lender-of-last-resort function: Winfree believes that the lender of last resort function acts as a conduit for moral hazard. This is an especially interesting point as it lies in partial opposition to a strategy laid out by Stephen Miran (and friends) in his article, “A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.” While their respective arguments do not lie in total opposition, Miran’s argument is that there should be more communication to lessen the stigma often associated with using the Fed as a lender-of-last-resort, as it “makes banks reluctant to access the [discount] window even when genuinely needed, leading them to hold larger precautionary reserve buffers than rely on the discount window as intended” and “has played a meaningful role in driving up demand for reserves.” See more in Winfree, next recommendation below:
  • Wind down the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: Winfree, Miran, and Kevin Warsh are aligned on the goal of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. However, the methods for doing so are clearly controversial (see above). Miran’s report highlights many (many) strategies for reducing the balance sheet, so further discussion on one component is likely not a dealbreaker.

However, the aforementioned recommendations are overshadowed by his “monetary rule reform options,” the first of which, is free banking. Straight out of the Austrian School, Winfree advocates for the functional abolition of the Federal Reserve altogether, claiming that “potential downsides of free banking stem from its greatest benefit: It has massive political hurdles to clear,” saying that “transitioning to free banking would require political authorities, including Congress and the President, to coordinate on multiple reforms simultaneously.” Recall that this was published in 2022—before the GOP got Trump in the White House, Bessent in the Treasury, and a majority in both Congressional Houses. Naming a self-proclaimed free banker, who supports the dissolution of the Fed, as an advisor to the Chair of the Fed sets the stage for a potential dramatic restructuring of how monetary policy is conducted in the US. Winfree also argues in favor of either restoring the gold standard, or enforcing Milton Friedman’s “K-percent rule,” where the Federal Reserve creates money at a fixed rate.

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