President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, nicknamed Star Wars, promised to create a missile defense system so effective it would eliminate the threat of nuclear war forever, at a cost of around $70 billion. As it turned out, the technology just wasn’t feasible. And the Soviet Union figured out how to overwhelm the missile defense system at five percent of its cost. Reagan’s successor, George H.W. Bush, scaled Star Wars down to a much more modest program called Global Protection Against Limited Strikes, emphasis on limited.
Now President Donald Trump is promising that, with today’s technology, he can create an impenetrable missile shield for $175 billion. But the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in May 2025 that the program could actually cost up to $542 billion over two decades. And according to independent analysis, the CBO may actually be underestimating the cost sixfold. Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, has calculated a $3.6 trillion price over two decades. Harrison and other experts spoke to The Washington Post for a bombshell report published on Wednesday.
The Golden Dome is designed as a “multi-layered” system. One layer would be ground-based missile batteries. Another would be a constellation of satellites orbiting the Earth, ready to shoot down incoming missiles from above. That latter part was also part of the Star Wars program. Proponents say that lower launch costs today—thanks, Elon Musk—make it more feasible today, according to The Washington Post. Harrison, however, estimates that it would take 950 satellites per enemy missile. The American Physical Society puts the number at 400 interceptors for a lower-end North Korean missile and 1,600 for a higher-end North Korean missile.
North Korea is estimated to have 50 nuclear weapons. And that’s the lower end of the threats that the Golden Dome is supposed to counter. China has hundreds of nuclear weapons, and Russia has thousands. “You need so many more interceptors than missiles, it becomes operationally impractical,” Harrison told the Post.
The Golden Dome program could also scale up ground-based missile defenses. The U.S. military maintains 44 interceptors at a base in Fort Greely, Alaska, designed to launch an “exoatmospheric kill vehicle” that would intercept an incoming ballistic missile in space. But even tests conducted “under scripted conditions and designed for success” show a 55 percent success rate for those interceptors, the American Physical Society reports. The Pentagon has been quite sensitive about that fact. After the recent movie A House of Dynamite depicted U.S. interceptors failing, the Missile Defense Agency wrote up a memo claiming that the system is 100 percent foolproof.
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