Satellite images undermine Trump’s claim that Iran’s atomic sites were destroyed

President Donald Trump’s decision to order US forces to attack three key Iranian nuclear installations may have sabotaged the Islamic Republic’s known atomic capabilities, but it’s also created a monumental new challenge to work out what’s left and where. 

Mr Trump said heavily fortified sites were “totally obliterated” late on June 21, but independent analysis has yet to verify that claim. Rather than yielding a quick win, the strikes have complicated the task of tracking uranium and ensuring Iran doesn’t build a weapon, according to three people who follow the country’s nuclear programme.

International Atomic Energy Agency monitors remain in Iran and were inspecting more than one site a day before Israel started the bombing campaign on June 13.

They are still trying to assess the extent of damage, and while military action might be able to destroy Iran’s declared facilities, it also provides an incentive for Iran to take its program underground.

Mr Trump dispatched B-2 stealth jets laden with Massive Ordnance Penetrators, known as GBU-57 bombs, to attempt to destroy Iran’s underground uranium-enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow.

Satellite images taken on June 22 of Fordow and distributed by Maxar Technologies show new craters, possible collapsed tunnel entrances and holes on top of a mountain ridge.

They also show that a large support building on the Fordow site, which operators may use to control ventilation for the underground enrichment halls, remained undamaged. There were no radiation releases from the site, the IAEA reported. 

New pictures of Natanz show a new crater about 5.5 metres in diametre. Maxar said in a statement that the new hole was visible in the dirt directly over a part of the underground enrichment facility.

The image doesn’t offer conclusive evidence that the attack breached the underground site, buried 40 metres under ground and reinforced with an 8-metre think concrete and steel shell.

US Air Force General Dan Caine told a news conference earlier on June 22 that an assessment of “final battle damage will take some time.”

IAEA inspectors, meanwhile, haven’t been able to verify the location of the Persian Gulf country’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium for more than a week. Iranian officials acknowledged breaking IAEA seals and moving it to an undisclosed location. 

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Spy Satellite Uncovers Massive Stealth Flying Wing At Secretive Chinese Base

China is well aware that Western spy satellites, including those operated by the U.S., maintain constant overhead surveillance of high-value military assets, such as bases and research facilities. 

The deliberate exposure of a previously unseen, large, low-observable flying-wing HALE (High-Altitude Long-Endurance) unmanned aerial vehicle at the Malan test facility may not have been an accident

Instead, it appears to be a deliberate act of signaling by Beijing to the Trump administration, highlighting the rapid acceleration of China’s next-generation air combat capabilities at a time when the global security environment is rapidly deteriorating.

With the war in Ukraine ongoing and tensions in the Middle East escalating into a hot crisis, Beijing’s timing suggests an intent to assert technological parity and deterrence against the U.S. Broadly speaking, the world is entering a more dangerous and unstable era — a shift from a unipolar world with the U.S. in control to a bipolar geopolitical order, where volatility is expected to intensify throughout the 2030s.

The War Zone’s Tyler Rogoway cited new satellite spy images via Planet Labs that show the previously unseen HALE drone at a secretive test base near Malan in Xinjiang province

“Specifically, the craft was parked outside of a sprawling new facility that was built very recently to the east of the base, connected to it by a very long taxiway leading to a security gate,” Rogoway said.

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South Korea to launch fourth military spy satellite this week

South Korea plans to launch its fourth military reconnaissance satellite from a U.S. space base this week, the Ministry of National Defense said Monday, as the country seeks to better monitor North Korean threats with independent surveillance capabilities.
 
The military plans to launch the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida at 8:48 p.m. on Monday, according to the ministry.
 
The launch will be part of South Korea’s plan to deploy five satellites by the end of this year to enhance surveillance of North Korean military activities and help reduce its reliance on U.S. satellite imagery.

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Trump Administration Using Spy Satellites To Monitor Southern Border

The Trump administration ordered two Pentagon intelligence agencies—the NGA and NRO—to use spy satellites to monitor the U.S.-Mexico border in a broader effort to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking., according to Reuters.

The involvement of spy agencies and troop deployments highlights the growing militarization of the southern border, where Trump declared a national emergency.

Though the extent of satellite surveillance over U.S. territory remains unclear, the NGA confirmed forming a task force for the border mission, while the NRO said it was working with the Pentagon and intelligence community to secure the border.

The Reuters report says that their role stems from Trump’s executive orders targeting illegal crossings, trafficking, and the deportation of up to 14 million undocumented immigrants.

Trump, who made immigration central to his 2016 campaign, is now expanding the use of military tools—originally designed for foreign conflict—to the U.S.-Mexico border.

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U.S. Satellite Mapping Company Maxar Technologies Blocks Ukraine’s Access to Imagery, In a Renewed Blow to Kiev’s War Effort

The information coming from satellites, spy planes, surveillance drones and even balloons, along with SIGINT (signals Intel) and human assets hands the information to direct your artillery and drone firepower – to the point where we can say that the ‘surprise element’ has almost disappeared from modern warfare.

While thew Ukrainian forces have been putting up a gallant defense, it is only with the use of NATO top gear – and also with the US intel sharing in real time – that Ukraine has been able to avert a total catastrophe, even if they did lose over 20% of its territory, including most coastal areas.

But now, without US military aid deliveries, and with intel sharing blocked, Kiev has a big incentive to come to the negotiating table.

Today (7), it arose that another capability was withheld from Ukraine as US President Donald J. Trump turns on the screws on Volodymyr Zelensky.

Politico reported:

“U.S. satellite mapping company Maxar Technologies has blocked Ukraine’s access to its imagery, according to a report by Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi.”

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Satellite images show Israel razed over 1,000 buildings in south Lebanon

Satellite images obtained by the New York Times (NYT) reveal the widespread devastation inflicted on the south of Lebanon by the invading Israeli army, including the destruction of at least 1,085 buildings since 1 October.

“One village, Mhaibib, appears to have been virtually flattened, with only a handful of buildings still standing. In five other villages and towns, entire neighborhoods were reduced to rubble,” according to the US daily’s analysis.

At least 200 of the buildings destroyed by Israel were blown up in “controlled demolitions,” a practice the Israeli army has repeatedly used across the Gaza Strip.

“Controlled demolitions were seen in five of the six towns: Blida, Kafr Kila, Mhaibib, Ramyah, and Aita al-Shaab. It couldn’t be determined how other buildings were damaged,” the report states.

Besides satellite images, the NYT also verified the destruction from videos posted to social media by individual Israeli soldiers.

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Insurers Spy On Houses Via Aerial Imagery, Seeking Reasons To Cancel Coverage

Insurance companies across the country are using satellites, drones, manned airplanes and even high-altitude balloons to spy on properties they cover with homeowners policies — and using the findings to drop customers, often without giving any opportunity to address alleged shortcomings. 

“We’ve seen a dramatic increase across the country in reports from consumers who’ve been dropped by their insurers on the basis of an aerial image,” United Policyholders executive director Amy Bach tell the Wall Street Journal. Reasons can range from shoddy roofing to yard clutter and undeclared trampolines.  

Much of this surveillance is done via the Geospatial Insurance Consortium, which boasts of its coverage of 99% of the US population.

In pitching its ability to provide high-resolution “imagery and insights” for property reviews, GIC says insurers can use the service to “review risk and exposure on a building such as proximity of vegetation to the structure, whether a roof needs updating, and verify the exact location for a policy.” 

“If your roof is 20 years old and one hailstorm is going to take it off, you should pay more than somebody with a brand new roof,” Allstate CEO Tom Willson told the Journal, unapologetically and ominously adding that, where the company’s use of digital imagery is concerned, “there’s even more to come.” 

Wilson framed aerial spying as a pricing issue, but many consumers are finding that companies are using it to suddenly drop their coverage altogether. 

The Journal describes the experience of northern California resident Cindy Picos, who was dropped by CSAA Insurance last month, with the company saying aerial imagery revealed that her roof had aged beyond its life expectancy. She paid for an inspection of her own, which found the roof was good for another decade. CSAA wasn’t impressed, and said its decision was final. The firm also refused to share its photos, though it now says it’s changed that policy and will let customers see them — if they ask. 

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Elon Musk Delivers Satellite Tech To Military To Turn Earth Into A Panopticon Of Surveillance

The U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is reportedly acquiring a constellation of hundreds of intelligence-gathering satellites from SpaceX, with a specific focus on tracking targets down below in support of ground operations. Though details about this project are still very limited, there are clear parallels to what the U.S. Space Force has previously said about a highly classified space-based radar surveillance program, which it first publicly disclosed around the same time SpaceX is said to have gotten its NRO contract. If this program is the one we think it is, it could bring about a revolution in both tactical and strategic space-based sensing.

Starshield, SpaceX’s government-sales-focused business unit, has been working on the new low Earth orbit (LEO) spy satellites under a $1.8 billion contract it received in 2021 from NRO, according to a report from Reuters this past weekend, citing five anonymous sources familiar with the deal. The Wall Street Journal had previously published a story about the existence of the contract in February, but did not name NRO as being involved or provide specific details about the deal’s scope of work.

At the time of writing, neither SpaceX nor its CEO Elon Musk appear to have directly responded to the Reuters article or otherwise commented on the details therein. NRO, a U.S. military organization that serves as America’s main remote sensing intelligence arm, and is so secret that its existence was not publicly acknowledged until 1992, declined to comment on the specifics of any deal with SpaceX, according to Reuters.

“We’ve changed our procurement methods to take advantage of LEO technologies,” Troy Meink, NRO’s Principal Deputy Director, did say, speaking generally, in a speech at the Satellite 2024 conference on Monday, according to SpaceNews. “Our main priority is to meet the requirements with minimum risk.

When the new constellation, or at least an initial segment thereof, might begin collecting intelligence operationally, if it hasn’t already, isn’t clear. SpaceX has been launching relevant prototype satellites since 2020, before its formal contract with NRO, and “a U.S. government database of objects in orbit shows several SpaceX missions having deployed satellites that neither the company nor the government have ever acknowledged,” per Reuters.

As for why SpaceX is the one to deliver this constellation to the Pentagon, it pioneered the capability and is really the only experienced contractor in this area at this time, although that will change in the years to come.

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If SpaceX’s Secret Constellation Is What We Think It Is, It’s Game Changing

The U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is reportedly acquiring a constellation of hundreds of intelligence-gathering satellites from SpaceX, with a specific focus on tracking targets down below in support of ground operations. Though details about this project are still very limited, there are clear parallels to what the U.S. Space Force has previously said about a highly classified space-based radar surveillance program, which it first publicly disclosed around the same time SpaceX is said to have gotten its NRO contract. If this program is the one we think it is, it could bring about a revolution in both tactical and strategic space-based sensing.

Starshield, SpaceX’s government-sales-focused business unit, has been working on the new low Earth orbit (LEO) spy satellites under a $1.8 billion contract it received in 2021 from NRO, according to a report from Reuters this past weekend, citing five anonymous sources familiar with the deal. The Wall Street Journal had previously published a story about the existence of the contract in February, but did not name NRO as being involved or provide specific details about the deal’s scope of work.

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Musk’s SpaceX is building spy satellite network for US intelligence agency, sources say

SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s space company and national security agencies.

The network is being built by SpaceX’s Starshield business unit under a $1.8 billion contract signed in 2021 with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), an intelligence agency that manages spy satellites, the sources said.

The plans show the extent of SpaceX’s involvement in U.S. intelligence and military projects and illustrate a deeper Pentagon investment into vast, low-Earth orbiting satellite systems aimed at supporting ground forces.

If successful, the sources said the program would significantly advance the ability of the U.S. government and military to quickly spot potential targets almost anywhere on the globe.

The contract signals growing trust by the intelligence establishment of a company whose owner has clashed with the Biden administration and sparked controversy, opens new tab over the use of Starlink satellite connectivity in the Ukraine war, the sources said.

The Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in February the existence of a $1.8 billion classified Starshield contract with an unknown intelligence agency without detailing the purposes of the program.

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