Tag: oil

The Sheer Ignorance Of What’s At Stake Globally

This is a textbook case of how someone can reach the top of one field and still be utterly clueless about everything else. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg served as National Security Advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence and later as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. He is Co-Chair at the Center for American Security, America First Policy Institute, USA, which is a Neocon think tank. The man’s ignorance is staggering. He has made no effort to examine the facts—or, more likely, he knows them and deliberately refuses to discuss how Victoria Nuland helped select the interim government that started this civil war and attacked the Donbas on Neocon orders.

He advocates that Zelensky should tell President Trump to go to hell and destroy every refinery in Russia. To illustrate his sheer stupidity: forget the food crisis he would cause in Russia, knowing that would lead to nuclear war—he completely ignores that Africa and the Middle East account for over 80% of Russia’s wheat exports, making those regions the most directly tied to Russian grain. Iran is 100% dependent on Russian grain. That would be a surefire way to make the Middle East explode into a full-blown war, which would then merge with the Russia-versus-EU war, and China and North Korea would join.

It is these Neocons, who simply hate the Russian people, who are cascading the world into World War III over a war they instigated using Ukraine. He would fulfill our model by pushing diesel to the extreme, projecting $8, which would hit the U.S. economy, reduce trucking, and result in a U.S. food shortage. This is what I mean. Expertise in one field does not qualify you to argue about things that will impact the rest of the entire world with zero comprehension of where that leads.

A full-scale war with Russia would very likely cause a severe global diesel crisis, and in many regions, a collapse in supply is a real possibility. The system is already under extreme strain, and a broader conflict would push it past its breaking point. Our computer projects $10+ a gallon by 2032.

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Kallas & Zelensky Cannot Sleep as Long As One Russian is Still Breathing

For whatever it’s worth, it seems diesel fuel and heating oil are set to climb, with a final peak next March. A cold winter could speed that up, but Ukraine has already inflicted massive damage on Russia’s refineries. Diesel has a dramatic impact on food. In Asia, ships need diesel to transport food back, and farmers can’t harvest their crops without it. Trump is right that Zelensky is affecting the entire world, and Zelensky has openly said he doesn’t give a damn. Even worse, all the critics pushing for World War III insist Trump shouldn’t lift any sanctions on Russia. They won’t be satisfied until there’s a nuclear war.

In the case of wheat, we had a Directional Change in 2025 and that has been correct. A close at year end simply above 645 when we are currently at the 670 area is projecting a serious risk of a rally into 2030. Between Zelensky and Netanyahu, this dynamic-duo is really screwing the entire world and then we have ruthless Neocons, include Kaja Kallas in Europe, who cannot sleep at night as long as one Russian is still alive.

Even the Ukrainian government-controlled press states that they will NOT honor any ceasefire on energy. What if the EU were supplying Carney in Canada to wage war against the United States with 80,000 drones—who is the enemy? Canada, which launches the drones, or the country providing them? In law, if you hire someone to kill your spouse, you cannot claim innocence on the grounds that you didn’t pull the trigger. The UK has supplied over 80,000 drones to Zelensky, orchestrated by Boris Johnson, who has intervened to ensure Zelensky does not agree to peace.

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Global Oil Shipments Under Pressure as Supertanker Supplies Tighten

A shortage of available supertankers is raising global oil shipping costs and making some long-distance crude trades uneconomical, according to shipbrokers, traders and industry data cited in a Sept. 19 report. The squeeze arrives as fuel markets remain tight and the geopolitical conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt seaborne energy flows.

Moving a cargo from Houston to Asia now adds about $26 a barrel, or $52 million a cargo, the report stated, equal to roughly a quarter of the price of West Texas Intermediate futures. That figure represents a cost that traders say can erase the profit margin on a long-haul voyage.

Oil tanker rates have jumped to record highs as escalating risks to shipping in and out of the Middle East prompt traders and tanker operators to undertake inefficient and more expensive trade routes, according to Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com [1]. The report stated that the cost increase threatens long-haul flows as fuel markets remain tight.

Freight Rates Reach Record Levels on Key Routes

Very large crude carriers hauling 2 million barrels from the Persian Gulf to China are earning upward of $1.2 million a day, according to industry benchmarks. Earnings on the benchmark Saudi Arabia-to-China supertanker route surged to a record $647,000 per day on Thursday, according to Baltic Exchange data cited by Bloomberg, more than ten times the rate a year ago [2].

Supertanker owners were getting paid $510,000 per day on some Gulf routes in August, according to Middle East Eye [3].

Suezmax earnings average more than $300,000 a day, rates typically associated with war-zone voyages, traders and shipbrokers said [10]. Ship-tracking data from Vortexa show U.S.-Asia flows have fallen in recent weeks as freight costs roughly tripled, the report stated.

Conflict and Fleet Stretching Drive Supertanker Squeeze

Industry executives and shipbrokers said they have never seen supertanker availability so tight, with few vessels available for hire in some locations. The main drivers are the knock-on effects of the U.S.-Iran conflict and a large wager by a South Korean tycoon that had already lifted shipping rates before the war, according to the report [10].

Vessels shuttling through the strait are switching cargoes near Oman, while other tankers sail around Africa to pick up Mediterranean cargoes, stretching the fleet, the report stated. Offshore Oman, 16 tankers clustered together to transfer millions of barrels of oil that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf [5].

Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group, said at the Bloomberg Commodity Investor Forum: “It has never been this expensive to move oil around.” The Iran war has turned very large crude carriers into assets earning more than $650,000 a day, with earnings on the benchmark route surging to a record [2].

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Oil Rises After MidEast Attacks Spread And Escalate, Stoking Supply Fears

Oil prices rose at this evening’s futures open after renewed escalation of attacks by Iran and its proxies in the Middle East.

WTI is pushing back up towards Friday’s highs.

This move comes as President Trump claims that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an ‘energy ceasefire’ which may just stabilize diesel prices around the world, but does nothing for exponentially rising tanker rates and the tightness in the physical oil markets.

Treasury markets are closed Monday, silencing the one cross-asset signal that typically anchors risk sentiment – meaning there will be no (cash) bond market verdict on what this weekend of renewed and re-escalated violence wrought.

“In quieter conditions, geopolitical headlines can often have an outsized impact,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note to clients. But with the US inflation reading, several central bank speakers and the start of another US earnings season this week, “there will be plenty for markets to digest,” he wrote.

Dramatic Videos Show Several Tankers On Fire In Strait Of Hormuz This Weekend

Yet another tanker has been struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, which brings the total number to at least two or possibly as many as three suffering damage in the last 24 hours, chiefly from sea mines.

A slew of videos showing tankers striking mines have emerged on social media over the weekend, at a moment attacks on international vessels by Iranian forces are surging to wartime highs…

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‘No More Pipelines’ law is unconstitutional: Alberta Court

Ottawa’s controversial “No More Pipelines” law has suffered another constitutional defeat, with Alberta’s highest court ruling 4–1 on Friday that the legislation still oversteps federal authority despite attempts to fix it.

“Yet another big win for Alberta,” Premier Danielle Smith declared Friday on social media.

The legislation, introduced through Bill C-69 in 2019, governs federal environmental assessments of major infrastructure and resource projects, including mines and pipelines.

The Alberta Court of Appeal first found the law unconstitutional in 2022. The Supreme Court of Canada largely agreed in a 5–2 ruling in 2023, rejecting its designated projects scheme while upholding provisions governing federal projects.

Ottawa amended the legislation in 2024, but Alberta challenged the changes, arguing they failed to address the Supreme Court’s concerns.

Friday’s ruling found that Ottawa could still use limited federal interests to regulate entire provincial projects, exceeding its constitutional authority. The majority also rejected using federal responsibilities toward Indigenous peoples to justify broader regulation.

Justice Kevin Feehan dissented, finding that Ottawa’s amendments sufficiently addressed the Supreme Court’s concerns.

Smith urged Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to accept the ruling rather than pursue another appeal.

“The Alberta Court of Appeal just ruled that C-69 remains largely unconstitutional,” she said.

“I’m calling on the Federal Government to accept this ruling, refrain from yet another appeal, and immediately work with Alberta and the other provinces to clean up this flawed Trudeau-era legislation once and for all so it no longer inhibits economic development in our country.”

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Ukraine Reportedly Bombs Russian Oil Terminal Which is Part of Deal to Lower Price of Diesel to the US

The war machine extending the Ukrainian-Russian War is not our friend. They are doing everything to hurt President Trump and the US economy!

Ukraine Reportedly Bombs Russian Oil Terminal, Which is Part of Deal to Lower the Price of Diesel to the United States.

On Friday, President Trump announced that the price of diesel was coming down fast after he reached a deal with Ukraine on Truth Social.

I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Overnight, a massive Russian terminal is bombed by Ukraine.  The following was reported:

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Trump strikes diesel deal with Putin in sharp reversal of US policy

President Donald Trump said he has struck a deal to obtain diesel from Russia, a stunning reversal of years of US pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine and an attempt to address high fuel prices ahead of the US midterm elections.

Trump said on social media on Saturday that he struck the deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call in which he was expected to discuss a suspected case of plague in Russia. Instead, Trump announced that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel, followed by an additional 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter”. Russia will deliver an additional 3 million tonnes “within a short period of time” after that, he wrote.

Trump’s shocking announcement was in stark contrast to a sweeping Russia sanctions law he signed last month that aimed at clamping down on the oil and gas revenues that fuel Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called it “a weak decision, unfortunately, a weak decision by strong partners”, according to a statement released by the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington.

Trump announced the deal as his envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner were meeting with Ukrainian officials in Miami to discuss a proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

“I believe our team is simply being used as a smokescreen. And that is certainly not fair. It is certainly not how partners should treat each other,” Zelensky said.

Trump’s move casts doubt on the likelihood of the White House imposing new sanctions on Russia, given that the law that passed overwhelmingly by Congress directs the administration to target countries that purchase Russian oil and gas. Lawmakers this week had urged the Trump administration to act quickly to use the tools available to help Ukraine.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, along with Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who is the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the ranking Democrat on the Banking Committtee, called Trump’s announcement a betrayal of Ukraine, the European allies and US national security.

“Enough is enough,” the senators wrote. “The President must end his war with Iran instead of funding Russia’s war machine.”

Gas prices globally have surged as the war in Iran upends the energy sector. While diesel future prices dipped on the news on Saturday, the national average for a gallon of diesel in the US remained high at US$6.28 (NZ$11.19), according to AAA, after hitting a record US$6.52 (NZ$11.61) on September 22.

Trump did not address the sanctions or Russia’s war but said, “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority”.

Trump said later as he left the White House for a campaign rally that he was thankful for the deal. “I want to thank President Putin. To be honest with you, we have massive amounts of oil coming into our country, and it’s diesel, which is what we want. So, thank you,” Trump said. He did not answer shouted questions about the criticism from Zelensky.

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Trump’s Fact-free Diatribe on the Price of Oil. “Strait of Hormuz Misrepresentations”

Another day and another fact-free diatribe by the president of the United States.

Trump went on his Truth Social (where truth is a rare commodity) and said Democrats have closed down the nation’s refinery capacity, and this is the reason diesel and gas prices are skyrocketing.

Here’s what Trump didn’t tell you:

He has triggered closures of major refinery companies.

The recent closures were corporate decisions by refinery owners, not a mandate by Democrats.

LyondellBasell Industries in Houston made a strategic decision to exit refining in March, 2025, eliminating approximately 264,000 barrels a day. (Categorized as among the 10 best in the U.S)

Phillips 66 in Los Angeles closed in October, 2025, citing uncertain long-term sustainability amid changing market conditions, while also reporting high operating costs and low earnings.

The closure removed 139,000 barrels from the market. Valero, in Benicia, California ended refining in 2026, citing high maintenance costs and other business considerations. The corporation produced 145,000 barrels a day.

Valero also mentioned regulatory hurdles in California, where the are unusually stringent fuel, environmental, emissions, and operating requirements. However, it is not accurate to claim that Democrats or California’s governor ordered these refineries closed, or that regulations in the state are responsible for the fuel crisis in the rest of the country.

The 2025 shutdowns at the LyondellBasell Houston and Phillips 66 Los Angeles refineries cut total US refining capacity by about 400,000 barrels per day. Because the two California closures eliminated roughly 17% of California’s capacity, their impact is concentrated on West Coast fuel supply and prices rather than the broader US market.

It’s correct to say Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries affect global energy markets. During his first term, Trump approved the first US provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine, notably Javelin anti-tank missiles. In 2018 and 2019, the United States notified Congress of sales totaling 360 Javelins, plus launchers, training, and related equipment. In other words, US foreign policy, under both Biden and Trump, is responsible for the current crisis.

Diesel and heating oil account for nearly 30% of global petroleum use, with about one-quarter of this supply moving across borders. When Russian refinery exports drop, the impact extends beyond Europe, resulting in rising costs in transport, farming, construction, freight, and heating, all of which contribute to wider inflation.

The Trump administration is responsible for raising oil prices by continuing the war against Iran.

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Massive Smoke Plume As Tanker Erupts In Flames, Spills Oil Off Russia’s Sochi Coast

The Black Sea tanker wars have continued Tuesday. In the latest tit-for-tat episode, a large so-called ‘shadow fleet’ tanker is ablaze close to the Russian Black Sea port of Sochi.

The vessel, identified in reports as likely being the Aframax Rio, which was previously sanctioned by Ukraine for alleged involvement in Russian oil exports, is producing a massive smoke plume and has been photographed and filmed by shocked onlookers at Sochi’s shores. Images like the below are widely circulating on Russian Telegram channels.

Russian regional authorities in nearby Sirius have since confirmed in a public announcement that a tanker had caught fire in the Black Sea.

Reuters writes that “The beaches in the settlement in Russia’s south Krasnodar region are closed to the public, the authorities said, without giving any details of the cause of the fire.”

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Ukraine Claims Over Half of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity Taken Out in Missile Strikes

Ukraine says its long-range strikes have neutralized more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity, hampering Moscow’s ability to supply its forces during its 4 1/2-year-old invasion.

The Defense Ministry said late Sunday that recent strikes on refineries in cities including Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov and Syzran had put 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity out of action. The claim could not be independently verified.

Both Moscow and Kyiv have intensified their aerial assaults as progress along the 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) front line has largely ground to a halt.

Ukrainian forces have repeatedly attacked refineries from Moscow to Siberia, sparking a widespread fuel crisis in Russia earlier this year that forced authorities to restrict gasoline sales.

Russian officials have not publicly revealed any data on damage caused to the country’s oil infrastructure. However, President Vladimir Putin said in a rare admission on Oct. 1 that the strikes had cost Russia roughly 1% of its gross domestic product.

“They started attacking oil refineries and openly declared the goal of damaging our economy. Did they achieve their goal? Partially,” Putin said at a meeting of the Valdai Club forum of international foreign policy experts.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said analysts from Ukraine´s intelligence services, the General Staff and the Defense Ministry had assessed the strikes’ effects.

“Fifty-one percent of struck refining capacity is a significant blow to the enemy´s economy, to its ability to carry out aggression and supply its troop groupings. Our deep strikes continue to bring the war to Russian territory,” he said.

Russia has historically been the world’s third-largest producer of refined fuel products from crude after the U.S. and China.

Some of Russia’s 32 refineries have been hit as many as 15 times since the start of the war, and one refinery has been hit every three days in recent months, creating a cycle of damage and emergency repairs that could degrade units long term, according to the International Energy Agency.

Ukrainian strikes have also increasingly targeted the more complex equipment that removes impurities from fuel, which takes months to repair. The IEA says diesel output has fallen by about 30%, and drivers have had to wait up to 40 hours to fill up at gasoline stations.

Russian refiners have tried to compensate by delaying scheduled maintenance and bringing mothballed units back online. Another response has been to lower fuel quality standards to maintain gasoline supplies, which risks damage to engines and pollution control equipment.

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