Tag: iran

Iran has kept up its saber-rattling in the wake of last week’s Israeli aerial attack, which itself was the much anticipated response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack of October 1st. Washington is now warning Tehran that it “won’t be able to hold Israel back” if the Islamic Republic retaliates, US and Israeli officials told Axios Saturday.

“We told the Iranians: We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one,” the US official said.

The message was reportedly passed to Iranian officials via Swiss intermediaries, the Axios report details, which is a rare public disclosure.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the same day warned of “tooth-breaking” response for Israel’s actions. Recent international reports have also suggested Iran-linked paramilitaries in Iraq could be preparing a new attack on Israel.

The Iranian Supreme Leader has also said, “We will do whatever is necessary in confronting arrogance, whether in terms of military and armament or politically. The Iranian people and officials will never hesitate in facing global arrogance and the criminal apparatus ruling the world order.”

“The issue is not just about revenge, but rather acting with logic and confrontation consistent with religion, ethics, Sharia, and international laws. The issue is confronting international injustice, and for the Iranian people, confronting oppression and arrogance is a mandatory duty,” he added. 

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CNN, citing a high-ranking source familiar with Iran’s deliberations, reported Wednesday that Iran plans to respond to the Israeli strike from last weekend, likely before the U.S. presidential election on 5 November.

“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the aggression of the Zionist regime will be definitive and painful,” the source said.

Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted on X in Hebrew on Sunday—a day after Israel carried out waves of attacks on targets in his country—that the “Zionist regime made a mistake.”

“It erred in its calculations on Iran,” he posted. “We will cause it to understand what kind of strength, ability, initiative, and will the Iranian nation has.”

Reports out of Iran indicated that the IDF targeted facilities at the Parchin military base located southeast of Tehran. The Guardian reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency believes that Iran has conducted tests of “high explosives that could trigger a nuclear weapon” at the facility. 

The paper said another strike hit the Khojir military base, a major missile production site.

Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, told reporters on Sunday that Iran does not seek a total war but will give an “appropriate response” to the strikes believed to have been fired from U.S.-controlled airspace in Iraq by Israeli fighter jets. The U.S. said it was not involved in the operation.

Khamenei accused Israel of exaggerating its success in the Saturday strike, but said it is also wrong to downplay the assault. He also blamed the UN and West for its failures in stopping the genocide in Gaza and Israeli aggression in Lebanon.

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It’s becoming very difficult for Israel and Iran to balance their own hawks’ demands, domestic public perception, and the perception of their opponent’s policymakers (which include hawkish elements).

Israel finally retaliated against Iran on Friday for Iran’s own prior retaliation against Israel earlier this month, which the Islamic Republic carried out against the self-professed Jewish State in an attempt to restore deterrence, in the second round of their dangerous tit-for-tat that first began in spring. Unlike Iran’s retaliation against Israel, Israel’s retaliation against Iran wasn’t widely filmed. It was also surprisingly restrained despite lots of earlier hype and concerns about an uncontrollable escalation.

No critical infrastructure, including Iran’s sole nuclear reactor and its oil refineries, was directly targeted but the New York Times cited unnamed sources from both countries to report that Israel destroyed surrounding air defenses in order to leave Iran open to a more painful attack if it retaliates to this one. Axios also reported that Israel warned Iran about its attack in advance via third parties in an attempt to deter retaliation that could risk everything spiraling into a larger conflict depending on how it plays out.

Iran announced that four of its soldiers had been killed and reaffirmed its right to respond. A high-ranking source reportedly told Tasnim that Iran is ready to do precisely that, though Sky News Arabia cited an anonymous source to report that Iran informed Israel via third parties that it won’t do so. Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post reported that Israel does indeed expect retaliation, but it might be carried out via Iran’s regional allies in the Resistance Axis. It’s therefore unclear what’ll happen next.

In any case, Israel’s surprisingly restrained retaliation deserves to be analyzed. Prime Minister Benjamin (“Bibi”) Netanyahu’s office denied reports that Israel changed its targets under US pressure to avoid an uncontrollable escalation like what could have followed if it hit Iran’s critical infrastructure. Even so, it’s difficult to imagine that the US’ resistance to this didn’t play a role in Israel’s retaliation. After all, in the event of a massive Iranian retaliation, Israel would depend on US support then and afterwards.

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Israel has delayed its retaliatory strike against Iran because of a leak last week of potentially sensitive military information from the US.

The leak revealed Israel’s well-advanced plans to respond to a salvo of nearly 200 Iranian ballistic missiles fired against it earlier this month, which was a retaliation by Tehran for Israel’s attacks on its Middle Eastern proxy groups.

The top-secret document was published on a pro-Iranian Telegram channel last Friday and appeared to be a US assessment of Israel’s likely response, based on satellite imagery and other intelligence.

It made reference to Golden Horizon and Rocks, two Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles.

Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack. It has been forced to develop an alternative plan, one that requires detailed war gaming before any order is given, The Times understands.

“The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components,” an intelligence source with knowledge of Israeli deliberations said. “There will be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than it was supposed to take.”

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