Tag: iran

The Consequences of Incompetence

For nearly 40 days, Israel and the United States carried out an extensive aerial campaign against Iran designed to topple the government and suppress Iran’s ability to defend itself. This campaign failed to achieve any of its stated objectives. Instead, it devolved into a numbers game where inflated outcomes were sold to an unquestioning public by military professionals and politicians alike. The Iranian government not only withstood the efforts at decapitation-induced regime change, but actually strengthened its hold on power when the people of Iran, instead of turning on the Islamic Republic, rallied to its cause. Moreover, rather than suppressing Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones against US military bases, critical infrastructure in the Gulf Arab States, and Israel, Iran not only sustained its ability to strike, but deployed new generations of weapons that readily defeated all missile defense systems while, using intelligence information that permitted accurate targeting, destroyed critical military infrastructure worth tens of billions of dollars.

Regional experts had long warned about the consequences of entering an existential conflict with Iran, noting that Iran would not simply allow itself to be erased as a viable nation state without ensuring that the other nations of the region were subjected to similar existential threats to their survival, and that global energy security would be disrupted in such a manner as to trigger a world economic crisis. These assessments were backed up by a belied that Iran would not only be able to shut down shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but also effectively target and destroy the major energy production potential of the Gulf Arab States.

It wasn’t that the politicians and military planners in the US and Israel doubted Iran’s ability to impact global energy markets or strike targets in Israel and the Gulf region.

They knew Iran had the potential.

They just believed that they would be able to achieve regime change in Tehran in relatively short order, thereby mooting any threat Iran might pose to energy supplies and infrastructure.

They were wrong, which is why the US was looking for an offramp from the war soon after it started.

The end result was this current ceasefire, which was ostensibly entered into to buy time for US and Iranian negotiators to hammer out a lasting peace plan.

There is a fundamental problem, however.

While Iran has approached the current negotiations from a practical, reality-based posture predicated on resolving the actual major points of difference between the US and Iran, the US is being held hostage by the politicized whim of an American President who needs to shape domestic public opinion in a way which transforms the reality of a humiliating defeat into the perception of a bold victory.

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Glam Iranian businesswoman busted at LAX, charged with helping regime sell drones, bombs and ammo

A glamorous Iranian businesswoman with a US green card was arrested at the Los Angeles International Airport for allegedly trafficking arms on behalf of Tehran.

Shamim Mafi, 44, of Woodland Hills, was taken into custody on Saturday night and charged with brokering deals for Iranian drones, bombs, and millions of rounds of ammunition bound for Sudan, according to the office of the US Attorney for the Central District of California.

Mafi had allegedly conducted the arms deals while in close contact with Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, which provided instruction and funds for her to open a business in the US to operate out of, according to court records.  

“She is charged with a violation of 50 U.S.C. § 1705 for brokering the sale of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, and millions of rounds of ammunition manufactured by Iran and sold to Sudan,” First Assistant US Attorney Bill Essayli said Sunday, announcing the arrest.

Mafi posted glam pics of herself traveling the world — including posing in a $100,000 Mercedes-Benz roadster.

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US Military Prepares to Seize Vessels Linked to Iran Outside Middle East – Reports

The US military is preparing to seize commercial vessels and tankers affiliated to Iran in international waters outside the Middle East in the coming days, The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing US officials.

On Saturday, the Iranian military command said that the Iranian armed forces have restored military control over the Strait of Hormuz due to the US blockade.

The administration of US President Donald Trump is seeking to intensify economic pressure on Tehran to force the Iranian government to reopen the waterway and make concessions on its nuclear program, the report said.

On April 13, the US Navy began blockading all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of the world’s oil, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas supplies. Washington maintains that non-Iranian vessels are free to transit the Strait of Hormuz as long as they do not pay Tehran a toll. Iranian authorities have not announced the imposition of a toll, but have discussed such plans.

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Russia’s Rosatom Ready to Transfer Enriched Uranium From Iran – CEO

Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom is ready to assist in transferring enriched uranium from Iran, while the issue of the Iranian enriched uranium remains key and painful issue during talks between the United States and Iran, the company’s CEO Alexey Likhachev said on Saturday.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington plans to recover enriched uranium from Iran jointly with Tehran and bring it back to the United States.

“During the [US-Iran] negotiations the issue of removing Iranian enriched uranium continues to remain a key and painful question … And here only Russia has positive experience of cooperation with Iran. In 2015, at the request from Iran, we already transported enriched uranium from Iran. We are ready to assist with this issue today as well,” Likhachev told the Strana Rosatom newspaper.

Likhachev added that the Rosatom is closely monitoring the progress of the US-Iran talks, as well as statements by the US president, as Trump’s accusation that Iran was supposed to obtain nuclear weapons within two weeks, became main reason to launch military operation against Iran.

“In any case, we will welcome any agreements between the conflict sides that will lead to the cessation of armed confrontation,” Likhachev said.

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Iranian gunboats fire on tanker in Strait of Hormuz as Iran reimposes restrictions

The dueling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz lurched into uncharted waters on Saturday. The United States pressed ahead with its campaign to choke off Iranian ports and Iran reversed an initial move to reopen the waterway, firing on a ship attempting to pass.

Confusion over the critical chokepoint threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed conflict, even as mediators expressed confidence a new deal was within reach.

Iran’s joint military command said on Saturday that “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control of the armed forces.” It warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

Two gunboats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said on Saturday. It reported the tanker and crew as safe, without identifying the vessel or its destination. TankerTrackers.com reported vessels were forced to turn around in the strait, including an Indian-flagged super tanker, after they were fired on by Iran.

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WaPo: More Than 10K Troops Headed for Persian Gulf as U.S. Blockades Strait of Hormuz

Another 10,200 American troops are heading to Iran, apparently to persuade Iran to agree to U.S. terms in peace talks during the two-week ceasefire that ends next week.

But yet another reason, The Washington Post explained in its report on the deployment, is staging more forces there for a ground invasion of Iran.

Already, 50,000 Americans are in the region. Their latest mission: blockading the Strait of Hormuz to squeeze Iran economically.

The deployment coincides with today’s vote in the U.S. Senate not to block Trump from continuing to attack Iran. 

Some 6,000 Americans are headed to the region on the USS George H.W. Bush, officials told the Post, along with “4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit,” which will land there “near the end of the month.”

The newly-arriving forces will mean three aircraft carriers and their contingent of jet fighters and other aircraft are now in the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford are the others.

“The USS George H.W. Bush was close to the Cape of Good Hope, near South Africa, on Tuesday and expected to make an unusual hook around the bottom of the continent on its way to the Middle East, two officials familiar with the matter said,” the Post reported. The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, which comprises three ships, left Hawaii last week, and included an infantry battalion of more than 800 Marines. 

On Sunday, after U.S. negotiators led by Vice President J.D. Vance failed to force Iran to bow to U.S. demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its nuclear ambitions, President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the strait.

U.S. warships in the Abraham Lincoln’s Strike Group are executing the blockade, U.S. Central Command reported today, and vessels are patrolling the Gulf of Oman.

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Hormuz Strait shut down again over US ‘piracy’, says Tehran

  • Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp says control of the Strait of Hormuz has now “returned to its previous state” because of the US’s continuing blockade of Iranian ports.
  • US President Donald Trump says the naval blockade will “remain in full force” until “our transaction with Iran is 100% complete”.
  • Earlier Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait is “completely open” to all commercial vessels, “in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon” and “on the coordinated route as already announced”.
  • Trump said Israel is “prohibited” from bombing Lebanon as the first day of a 10-day ceasefire in the country saw tens of thousands of people return to homes they were forced to flee during weeks of Israeli attacks.

‘Iran believes it has the upper hand’

Iranian professor Mostafa Khoshcheshm says President Trump’s contradictory statements last night convinced Tehran it would not find “a trustworthy partner for any kind of deal”, and as long as the US acts this way, “Iran will continue the war”.

On the broader mood in Tehran, Khoshcheshm said the Iranian armed forces are “completely ready”, and millions of people taking to the streets every night are demanding continuation of “resistance”.

“Iran believes it has the upper hand and that this must be established in any future confrontation,” he told Al Jazeera.

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This Isn’t Just Trump’s War on Iran. Both Parties Paved the Way for Disaster.

nlike the invasion of Iraq, which received the support of a sizable minority of congressional Democrats, Donald Trump’s war on Iran has received near-universal criticism. Still, the party has focused primarily on process-style critiques — such as the legality of declaring the war under the Constitution and the war’s economic impact — rather than the humanitarian consequences and flagrant violations of international law.

That should not come as a surprise to anyone familiar with the U.S. bipartisan consensus on Iran: For over 20 years, a number of prominent Democratic leaders — and in some cases, large majorities of congressional Democrats overall — have helped paved the groundwork for Trump’s war by issuing exaggerated and alarmist statements about Iran’s supposed danger to the region, threatening the use of military force, and undermining diplomatic initiatives, sometimes even criticizing Republicans from the right.

In 2024, the Democratic Party platform criticized “Trump’s fecklessness and weakness in the face of Iranian aggression during his presidency” by not responding militarily to attacks by Iran and groups in Iraq and elsewhere that share Iran’s strategic objectives. The platform cited four separate incidents that took place under his first administration, failing to acknowledge that each was a direct result of Trump’s aggressive policies against Iran, including the assassination of Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general.

By contrast, the party’s platform praised President Joe Biden for having “authorized precision airstrikes on key Iranian-linked targets,” which it claimed would “deter further aggression by Iran.” It praised “America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel and our unrivaled ability to leverage growing regional integration among U.S. partners to counter Iranian aggression.” Though eager to stress military means to counter Iran, the platform failed to directly call for a return to the Iran nuclear deal under the Obama administration, which considerably reduced regional tensions — a deal that Biden campaigned on reinstating but failed to do.

The month after the release of the party platform, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris attacked Trump in a presidential debate, declaring that her administration “will always give Israel the ability to defend itself, in particular as it relates to Iran and any threat that Iran and its proxies pose to Israel.”

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NATO Allies Adopt Evasive Policies on US War in Iran

Trump administration officials are discovering that a daunting number of longstanding U.S. allies and security clients are adopting hedging policies or even openly opposing Washington’s decision to wage war against Iran.  That sobering reality has become even clearer over the past week than it was during the earlier stages of the armed conflict.  On April 12, the president called upon NATO members to join U.S. naval forces in blockading Iranian ports. The proposed move was in response to Tehran’s continuing efforts to selectively close the vital Strait of Hormuz to foreign shipping.

However, most of Washington’s alliance partners refused to join the retaliatory blockade. British prime minister Keir Starmer was especially blunt and negative. The U.K. is “not supporting” the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, Starmer stated, insisting that the country would not get “dragged in” to the Iran war.  Starmer, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, instead proposed intensified international efforts, including a conference, to secure an effective agreement to reopen the strait.

The extensive allied refusal regarding Washington’s blockade plans reflects growing European dissatisfaction with overall U.S. policy toward Iran and, indeed, with Trump’s entire approach to world affairs. Concerned longtime proponents of close transatlantic security cooperation are expressing mounting worries that disagreements between the United States and its principal European allies about Iran policy could lead to a fatal breach in NATO.

European leaders and their publics clearly are getting restless. Serge Schmemann, the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times, emphasizes the extent of the change.  “Mr. Trump’s war on Iran, about which NATO allies were not consulted and in which they subsequently declined to participate, has made clear that Europeans no longer defer to Mr. Trump as the de facto “‘leader of the free world.’”

At the same time, European leaders have tried to avoid directly antagonizing President Trump.  Achieving such a balance is not easy.  Trump expressed fury at NATO allies who have failed to support Washington’s intervention against Iran. Even before the latest intra-alliance spat over establishing a blockade, the president denounced such allies as “cowards.” Administration officials also are examining ways to punish uncooperative Alliance partners.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed and amplified Trump’s earlier doubts about the continuing value of NATO to America’s security. “Why are we in NATO? You have to ask that question. Why do we send trillions of dollars and have all of these American forces stationed in the region, if in our time of need, we won’t be allowed to use those bases?” Rubio said during an interview with Fox News in early April.  The refusal of most NATO members to authorize U.S. airstrikes and other offensive operations against targets in Iran has especially irritated administration officials.

However, as Wall Street Journal columnists Linas Kojalaand and Vytautas Leškevičius point out, with the notable and ostentatious exception of Spain, the most significant and influential Alliance members, including Britain, France, and Italy, have all quietly assisted the U.S. war effort in other ways.  The outcome has been a bit of a muddle. “Politically, the war with Iran has widened the gap between Washington and many European governments. Operationally, it has underscored how heavily the U.S. still relies on Europe – and how cooperative most European governments are.”

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Hegseth Says US ‘Locked and Loaded’ to Strike Iran’s Power Plants If No Deal Reached

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on April 16 urged Iran’s leadership to reach a deal with the United States, warning that a military operation against the country could be restarted quickly and that Iran’s power plants would be struck.

He said the U.S. government will ensure that Iran never has a nuclear weapon, which Trump administration officials say was a primary reason for launching strikes against the country in late February. Iran has long denied that it wants to obtain a nuclear weapon and insists that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes.

“We’d prefer to do it the nice way through a deal led by our great vice president and negotiating team. Or we can do it the hard way,” Hegseth told reporters at the Pentagon alongside the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine.

Hegseth called on Tehran to “choose wisely” in dealings with the United States.

“I pray you choose a deal, which is within your grasp for the betterment of your people and for the betterment of the world,” Hegseth added.

The U.S. military has kept up a naval blockade on Iran’s ports since April 13 in a bid to place economic pressure on the country’s leadership.

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