Casually dismissing everything as a CIA plot overlooks the preexisting problems that preceded this dramatic event and oversimplifies complex dynamics.
Many X users described Bolivia’s failed coup on Wednesday as another CIA regime change attempt, mostly due to its history of meddling in this landlocked and lithium-rich South American nation, but there’s much more to it than just that. Casually dismissing everything as a CIA plot overlooks the preexisting problems that preceded this dramatic event and oversimplifies complex dynamics. The present piece will concisely clarify what happened, why, the reason that it failed, and what might follow.
General Juan Jose Zuniga was dismissed earlier in the week after threatening to arrest former President Evo Morales if he tries running for a fourth term like the latter said that he wants to do in 2025 despite the Constitutional Court ruling late last year that it would be unconstitutional. Bolivia’s 2019 military coup was set into motion upon Morales winning a contentious fourth term after a 2016 referendum on extending term limits failed but was overruled by the Constitutional Tribunal in 2017.
For those who are interested in learning more about what happened back then, “Here’s How the Hybrid War on Bolivia Succeeded in Carrying Out Regime Change”, which was pretty much due to a significant share of the population already being preconditioned to consider his victory illegitimate. In parallel with that, the US once again co-opted its traditional allies in the armed forces there to get them to intervene against him, which led to a brief de facto dictatorship that was democratically overturned a year later.
Incumbent President Luis Arce from Morales’ “Movement for Socialism” (MAS) won a commanding victory with 55% of the vote compared to his next closest challenger who only scored 28%. The prior military-installed government folded due to the political impossibility of holding onto power under those circumstances, after which some of its members were held accountable before the law for their role in the coup. This included Jeanine Anez, who assumed the presidency during that period and is still in jail.
Over the past year, Arce and Morales had a nasty falling out over the run-up to 2025’s elections, which saw Arce being expelled from Morales’ MAS. Readers can learn more about this intra-leftist dispute here and here, but it basically boils down to personality differences, not any significant policy ones. As the ruling party’s infighting worsened, so too did the economy as its financial crisis began to climax, resulting in growing protests across the country in the immediate run-up to the failed coup.
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