Tag: perpetual war

Russia Is “Furious” At Biden’s “Serious Escalation” Of Ukraine War

The Biden Administration’s insane decision to give the green light for Ukraine to fire long range US missiles at Russia has been met with fury by the Kremlin.

“Departing US president Joe Biden… has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences,” Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta declared Monday morning.

Russian MP Leonid Slutsky, who heads the pro-Kremlin Liberal-Democratic Party, warned that the move will “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences”.

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Leaks expose secret British military cell plotting to ‘keep Ukraine fighting’

Leaked files show top UK military figures conspired to carry out the Kerch bridge bombing, covertly train “Gladio”-style stay-behind forces in Ukraine, and groom the British public for a drop in living standards caused by the proxy war against Russia.

Emails and internal documents reviewed by The Grayzone reveal details of a cabal of British military and intelligence veterans which plotted to escalate and prolong the Ukraine proxy war “at all costs.” Convened under the direction of the British Ministry of Defense in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the cell referred to itself as Project Alchemy. As British leadership sabotaged peace talks between Kiev and Moscow, the cell put forward an array of plans “to keep Ukraine fighting” by imposing “strategic dilemmas, costs and frictions upon Russia.”

The leaks obtained by The Grayzone expose a hidden hand behind Britain’s policy in Ukraine, showing in unusually granular detail how it aimed to engineer a long, grinding war through covert operations that stretched the bounds of legality.

Project Alchemy’s proposed schemes spanned every conceivable field of warfare, from cyber attacks to “discreet operations” to outright terrorism. The secret cell even put forward a plan to “aggressively pursue” and “dismantle” independent media outlets – including The Grayzone – through an aggressive campaign of legal harassment and online censorship, so they “would be forced to close.” The incendiary blueprints were fed to the highest levels of the British state and national security structure, where they were apparently well-received.

Founded by a senior British Ministry of Defence official, Project Alchemy is composed of veteran military and intelligence operatives united by a desire for all-out war between the West and Russia. Some have trained Ukrainian forces in clandestine sabotage tactics. 

Members of the national security cabal tacitly acknowledged that their proposed operations stretched the bounds of British law. Thus they suggested that London should be “prepared to creatively use the law” to meet its goals, and even be willing to erase “legal restrictions on UK deniable ops” against Russia. 

Some of Project Alchemy’s most extreme recommendations have already been implemented, often with calamitous results. These include the cell’s proposal to strike Crimea’s Kerch Bridge, which prompted a Russian escalation that saw punishing attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure. Alchemy also envisioned the construction of a secret, Gladio-style army of Ukrainian partisan fighters to carry out assassination, sabotage, and terror missions behind enemy lines. 

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Report: Trump Team Putting Together List of Military Officers Involved in Afghanistan Withdrawal

President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is putting together a list of United States military officers who were involved in the Biden Administration’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, according to a recent report.

Two people familiar with the plan told NBC News that Trump’s transition team is reportedly in talks about whether to establish “a commission to investigate” the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, which left 13 American service members dead.

The commission would reportedly also gather “information about who was directly involved in the decision-making for the military,” and how the plan “was carried out,” among other things.

“They’re taking it very seriously,” one person with the plan explained to the outlet.

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Ukraine’s Zelensky Admits War More Likely To End Sooner With Trump In The White House

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told reporters that he firmly believes the war with Russia will “end sooner” with president Trump back in office than it would if the Democrats had won the election.

The BBC reports that the Ukrainian leader told Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne “It is certain that the war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House.”

“This is their approach, their promise to their citizens,” Zelensky further noted, adding that Ukraine “must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.”

Zelensky also stated during the interview that he had a “constructive exchange” with Trump during their phone conversation last week, noting that US law prohibits him from meeting with Trump until after his inauguration in January.

It was widely reported last week that Elon Musk was also present on Trump’s call with Zelensky, which lasted around 25 minutes, according to the sources who were briefed on its details.

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Like Biden, don’t expect Trump to pay much attention to Africa

As commentators assess the implications of Donald Trump’s election victory for the United States and the world, various publications have asked what Trump’s return will mean for their continent. In one well-informed analysis, the BBC’s Wedaeli Chibelushi highlights “trade, aid, and security” as key sectors. We can also ask what might change in terms of Washington’s political relationships with various African countries, and how such changes would affect the overall balance of U.S. primacy versus restraint.

An initial caveat is necessary – of all the world’s regions, Trump and his team will likely not be thinking much about Africa. When Professor Stephen Walt recently assessed “The 10 Foreign-Policy Implications of the 2024 U.S. Election,” for example, he did not mention Africa – and that’s because the Middle East, Ukraine, NATO, and China, among other issues, will likely consume much more of Trump’s attention than the African continent will.

If Trump ignores Africa, that would be in keeping with a bipartisan neglect of the continent from the time of Barack Obama through the present. Obama and Joe Biden each held a “U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit” (in 2014 and 2022, respectively), but across the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations, Africa was approached mostly as a theater for counterterrorism, trade, and global influence, rather than as having intrinsic importance to Washington. Vice President Kamala Harris would likely have replicated the largely performative, status quo-friendly approach of Biden. Although Harris had a deep bench of Africa hands on her campaign, that depth more reflects the long line of aspirants who line up for foreign policy jobs in Democratic administrations, more than a now-dashed promise of transformation. Biden and Harris will leave office with little to show for their Africa policy beyond the summit and a slate of high-profile but low-substance trips, including Biden’s upcoming visit to Angola.

As Trump takes office, there will be something of an opportunity for diplomatic outreach and “reset” with Africa. So far, Trump’s picks for top foreign policy postings do not include anyone with a pronounced interest in African affairs and his victory has elicited more mixed reactions in Africa than one might expect. Despite his infamous “shithole countries” comment and his numerous racist and Islamophobic remarks, many ordinary Africans admire Trump’s entrepreneurial career, socially conservative platform, and outspokenness. Various African leaders were quick to congratulate the comeback candidate. Trump is, however, likely unaware of and relatively indifferent to whatever opportunity exists for engagement, and so it will probably slip by.

If “personnel is policy,” Trump’s first term did not bring any shocking or unusual appointments for civilian posts related to Africa, and his second term may not either; the true ideologues and hawks are likely to gravitate towards Iran policy, for example. During his first term, Trump appointed veteran diplomat Tibor Nagy as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, think tanker J. Peter Pham as Special Envoy for the Sahel, and another veteran diplomat, Donald Booth, as Special Envoy for Sudan. The situation in the Sahel and Sudan was worse when Trump’s term ended than when it began: a massacre in Sudan in June 2019 brought no consequences for its perpetrators, and Mali witnessed a coup in 2020. Yet those outcomes cannot be laid solely at the feet of the Trump administration. Tellingly, the situation in the Sahel and Sudan in 2024 is also worse than it was when Biden took office, so neither administration earns high marks here.

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The Impact of the US Election For Ukraine- Can Trump do a Deal With Putin on Ukraine?

Trump’s plans and approach towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is already evident in his campaign speeches and psoturing. Trump has often boasted about his capacity to negotiate deals, positioning himself as a peacemaker who will bring an end to the war.

His approach would center on swift negotiations and most certainly involving controversial proposals for territorial compromises. However, it is war and unpredictability is a constant. So the specifics would depend heavily on the ongoing state of the conflict and geopolitical dynamics in early 2025.

1. Focus on Negotiation and Ceasefire

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia within a short timeframe (sometimes stating 24 hours). His approach would center on bringing both parties to the negotiating table for immediate ceasefire talks. He’s already had phone calls with Zelensky and Putin who is currently pushing the strategic edge with Trump by calling for a Trump-led negotiation kick-off. In a way, Putin and Trump are already on same page but on same negotiation terms? That will have to be seen but it’s unlikely Trump will want to entirely go Putin’s way and be seen as bending over for Putin.

Trump’s main pitch would likely involve pressuring both sides into halting hostilities temporarily, setting the stage for further discussions on territorial disputes. Trump will argue that continued conflict is a lose-lose situation especially for Ukraine- a claim he already repeated, insisting that Ukraine is losing and Russia is winning and has hinted ending US aid, and he isn’t known to back down from his position even when proven wrong. Leveraging economic interests with Russia as an appeal to ending the war is also key for him.

2. Compromise in the name of “Peace”

Trump has shown a willingness to consider compromises that will involve territorial concessions, at least implicitly. This position is contentious for many reasons and would be met with strong resistance both in Ukraine and among Western allies.

Trump might propose a referendum-based approach, especially so as key members of his team support this.

Elon has repeatedly pushed similar ideas, suggesting that disputed areas such as Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk hold internationally supervised referendums to determine their status. Like it or not, Trump will take it as great if Elon says it’s good. This idea could be framed as a democratic solution, though it would be heavily criticized given Russia’s strong political/military control and occupation over those areas, especially so as millions of Ukrainians has fled those areas leaving their homes and livelihood behind.

Another possible angle could involve Trump advocating for a federated model in Ukraine, where regions could have greater autonomy- hasn’t worked in the past due Russia’s persistent interference. This might include proposals to give the Russian-occupied areas special status or increased autonomy while remaining under nominal Ukrainian sovereignty. It would be an attempt to satisfy both parties without a full land concession. But with Russian interference, it will be Moldova all over again. Some will argue that’s better if it stops the war now. Ukraine however much prefers a solution that contains Russia now and in the future.

3. Pressure on Ukraine to Compromise

Trump has often criticized the extensive military aid provided to Ukraine, arguing it prolongs the conflict. Trump’s Republican Party blocked aid to Ukraine for more than nine months from October 2023 to April 2024, forcing Kyiv to deplete its wartime budget, while the EU scrambled indecisively, mostly due to limited wartime capacity, leading to the loss of some of Ukraine’s most capable fighters and territorial gains for Russia. In a second term, Trump will leverage US support to push Ukraine towards a compromise, by conditioning future aid on entering negotiations with Russia and possibly demanding territorial concessions.

This stance would clearly be met with strong opposition from Ukrainian leadership, who have maintained a firm line on not ceding any territory.

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Pentagon ‘Shocked’ By Houthi Arsenal, Sophistication Is ‘Getting Scary’

A top Pentagon official responsible for purchasing arms for America’s defense stockpile has expressed ‘shock’ at the increasingly sophisticated arsenal possessed by Yemen’s Houthis.

Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante spoke at an event hosted by Axios on Wednesday, where he said that Houthis are displaying and deploying advanced weaponry, especially missiles that “can do things that are just amazing.”

He described that Houthis “are getting scary” in terms of their capability on display for more than a year in the Red Sea, where they’ve gone to war against Israeli and international shipping.

“I’m an engineer and a physicist, and I’ve been around missiles my whole career,” LaPlante said before the summit, called the “Future of Defense” in Washington, DC.

“What I’ve seen of what the Houthis have done in the last six months is something that — I’m just shocked.”

Among the surprisingly advanced capabilities include anti-ship ballistic missiles. Analysts have widely asserted that without doubt Iran is directly supplying these and other capabilities.

The Houthis have also routinely scored direct hits on commercial shipping vessels with both aerial and drone boats.

The Shia group has also claimed many times to have scored hits on US, UK, and other allied warships; however, the US has kept a tight lid on the extent of this, or actual damage, perhaps wishing to not give the Houthis a propaganda win.

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Developments in Kursk Region: Ukrainian fighters suffer losses, face charges in Russia

Ukrainian forces lost more than 100 servicemen in the Kursk area over the past day, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The enemy’s losses during the hostilities totaled more than 32,680 troops, according to the ministry.

The Main Military Investigation Department of the Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case against Ukrainian soldiers suspected of shelling the Dmitrievskaya church in the Sudzha district.

TASS has put together the key developments.

Progress of operation to destroy Ukrainian forces

– Units of the battlegroup North continued their offensive and struck Ukrainian formations in the areas of the settlements of Daryino, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Maryevka, Nykolayevo-Daryino and Plekhovo.

– Strikes by army aircraft and artillery fire inflicted damage to clusters of Ukrainian personnel and equipment in the Kursk Region.

– Tactical aircraft and rocket forces struck at enemy concentration areas and reserves in the Sumy Region.

– The operation to destroy Ukrainian formations is pressing on.

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‘Record number’ of resistance drone attacks target Israel in November

About 1,300 drones were launched against Israel between 1 and 13 November in at least 40 different attacks from the different factions of the Resistance Axis, according to a report by Israel’s Channel 12 News.

Noting that drone attacks have become “a routine matter,” the Hebrew broadcaster said the army recorded a rate of 3.3 drone attacks per day since the end of October. This is a marked spike from the rate of 2.77 daily attacks in October and two per day in September when Tel Aviv expanded its war against Lebanon.

Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has launched daily drone attacks against Israel for the past several weeks, sparking chaos in the northern city of Haifa and reaching targets as far as 145 kilometers deep.

On Thursday night, a drone exploded in the Eliakim area near Haifa, where Hezbollah says its forces targeted the “Eliakim base, which houses training camps under the Israeli army’s Northern Command … with a squadron of attack drones,  achieving precise hits.”

Footage shared on social media shows another drone continuing toward Tel Aviv. 

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Kiev admits its forces collapsing as Russia advances fast in Donbass

Ukrainian officials acknowledge that Russian forces are advancing in Donbass faster than at any time since the conflict escalated, while at the same time, Kiev says its defences are collapsing due to a shortage of fighters, the Financial Times reported. The news only deepens problems for the Kiev regime, especially following the announcement that Mike Pompeo, who is sympathetic to Ukraine, was confirmed not to have a position in the incoming Trump administration.

The newspaper said Ukrainian military officials and international experts expect the conflict to enter a critical phase in the coming months as both sides jockey for territorial advantage ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 with a key “[battle] shaping up in Russia’s Kursk region,” parts of which Ukraine invaded in August with some of its best-equipped units. Russian troops ultimately held off that invading force.

According to the Financial Times, while Kiev is directing resources to reinforce its incursion into the Kursk region, Ukrainian defences in Donbass are “crumbling” due to a shortage of fighters and ammunition. Russian troops have intensified attacks in recent months, where Ukrainian troops have been unable to hold the front line.

“The average age is already above 40 in various brigades and there doesn’t seem to be enough reinforcements arriving on the frontline,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst and fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, to the outlet.

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