Tag: perpetual war

Trump: Iran War Is an Open-Ended, Regime-Change War, Followed by Nation-Building

Every new war that the U.S. wages — at least over the past six decades — is accompanied by a series of official lies, shifting and inconsistent claims about the war’s goals, and constant exaggerations about the grand progress toward glorious victory. Now, a full week into the Iran War started by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his partner, the American President Donald Trump, this war already equals, if not surpasses, the brazen war propaganda that instigated and fueled those prior ones.

For the first few days, Trump’s most loyal supporters insisted — over and over — that this was not even a war at all. Americans have been so accustomed to a state of constant, endless war that when some watch their government heavily bombing another country, deliberately killing its leaders, sinking its navy, all while the U.S. President warns that “bombs will be dropping everywhere,” this somehow does not count as a “war.” We are told by supporters of the Iran War that whatever Iran has been doing to the U.S. constitutes a vicious, 47-year terrorist war against the U.S., but when the U.S. sends a “massive armada” to Iran and then attacks it with aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and 2,000-pound bombs, that this is somehow not a war? O.K.

That insulting not-a-war propaganda was crushed, thankfully, by a rather large obstacle. Namely, “Secretary of War” Pete Hegseth began calling it a war and invoking war clichés virtually from the start. Israel has always described it as a war. And now President Trump is also calling it a war. That ought to end this rhetorical tactic among all but the most shamelessly dishonest.

Once that defensive wall fell, defenders of this new Netanyahu-Trump war resorted to a new rationale: Fine, it is a war. But it will be a very short one. It will not be like Iraq. Donald Trump is not George W. Bush.

Keep reading

The US Missile Defense Shortage is Worse than Imagined

Donald Trump made a bold and provably wrong claim yesterday about the US air-defense missile inventory:

The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better — was stated to me today we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries’ finest arms!). At highest end we have good supply but not where we want to be. Much additional high-grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries.

I will now show you conclusively that Trump is gaslighting the public, at least with respect to the PAC-3 MSE missiles. The PAC-3 MSE (Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement) is effectively the primary missile used in the modern Patriot system for most high-priority threats, particularly in current U.S. Army and allied operations as of 2026. The PAC-3 MSE ( Missile Segment Enhancement) began low-rate initial production (LRIP) in 2014, with deliveries starting in 2015 and full-rate production approved in 2018.

Starting in 2015 and continuing through 2020, the US produced between 100 — 300 a year. Let’s use the higher figure… That is 1,800 PAC-3 MSE. In the succeeding four year period, the US produced an estimated 2,200 PAC-3 MSEs (i.e., 500+ per year). In 2025 the US boosted production to 620. Total PAC-3 MSEs produced since 2015 is 4,620.

When the PAC-3 MSE is employed against an incoming threat, a minimum of two are fired. Keep that figure in mind. So how many have we sent Ukraine? According to open source documents, including DOD/DOW budget figures, the the US has transferred 847 PAC-3 MSE missiles to Ukraine. Assuming that the US and Israel have NOT fired any PAC-3 MSE missiles in 2025 and 2026, the US only has 3,773 in its inventory. We know that is ridiculous, but play along with me.

During the 12-day war Iran fired at least 600 ballistic missiles into Israel. In theory, the Patriot system is designed to work against ballistic missiles while Israel’s Iron Dome is designed to defeat short-range counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) defense, plus capabilities against drones, cruise missiles, precision-guided munitions (PGMs), and some ballistic threats in certain configurations. So let’s assume that the Patriot was fired at 500 of the Iranian missiles — i.e., at least 1,000 PAC-3 MSE missiles were fired. That shrinks the US inventory to 2,773.

In just four days since the start of Epic Fury, Iran has fired an estimated 200 missiles at sites in the Gulf nations and Israel that have Patriot batteries. Conceivably, that means that another 400 PAC-3 MSE missiles have been launched, which shrinks the inventory to 2,373. If Iran fires 60 ballistic missiles per day, and the Patriot system uses 2 interceptors per incoming missile (a common conservative engagement doctrine for high-confidence intercepts against ballistic threats), the inventory would be exhausted after 19 full days, with enough left on the 20th day to handle roughly 46–47 Iranian missiles before depletion (about 19.775 days total, or roughly 19 days and 18–19 hours of sustained operations at this rate). In other words, the US PAC-3 MSE missiles will be exhausted on March 23, 2026.

Note that I am assuming that the entire inventory of US Patriot missiles have been deployed to Israel and US bases in the region. That is a false assumption because there are Patriot missile batteries with a full complement of missiles in other theaters. At present there are three Patriot battalions permanently assigned/forward-deployed to INDOPACOM (e.g., in South Korea/Japan/Guam areas, like 35th ADA Brigade and 1-1 ADA at Kadena); EUCOM has one Patriot battalion assigned (e.g., units in Germany like Baumholder/Ansbach areas, supporting NATO/Eastern flank).

Keep reading

US warplanes ‘likely responsible’ for Minab school massacre in Iran, internal probe shows

US investigators probing the deadly attack on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in the Iranian city of Minab believe a US military strike is the most likely cause of the bombing that killed over 180 people, of whom at least 165 were children, according to US officials who spoke to Reuters.

Two US officials told the outlet that the investigation remains ongoing and that a final determination has not been reached.

However, preliminary findings suggest the strike was most likely carried out by US forces, though they added that additional evidence could still emerge that changes the conclusion.

Reports and investigations by multiple outlets have reached a similar conclusion.

An investigation by the New York Times (NYT), based on satellite imagery, verified videos, and social media material, found the school had been hit by a precision strike at the same time that nearby targets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) came under attack.

A similar recent investigation by Middle East Eye (MEE) indicated the site was struck twice, describing the incident as a so-called “double-tap” strike.

A double-tap strike is a tactic meant to maximize civilian casualties in which a second missile hits the same location shortly after the first, deliberately killing survivors and rescuers who rush to the scene to help the wounded.

The BBC later reported that satellite imagery and open-source evidence suggested the area was struck by multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous attacks.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt deflected accusations of deliberate targeting, telling Reuters that “the Iranian regime targets civilians and children, not the United States of America.”

Keep reading

Zelensky Casually Threatens to Unleash Ukrainian Military on Hungary’s Viktor Orbán for Blocking €90 billion EU Aid

A new war on the horizon?

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky have been clashing for years, over a number of issues, but most importantly, because Budapest does not support Kiev’s membership in either NATO or the EU.

Orbán has repeatedly said that Ukraine does not fulfill the conditions for membership in the organizations, and furthermore, its participation would ‘bring the war’ to Europe.

These stances, needless to say, caused Orbán to be seen as an enemy of Zelensky’s regime – to the point where Kiev’s ruler, having repeatedly offended the Hungarian president, now half-jokingly threatens Orbán’s life in public.

The reason for the recent escalation is energy.

Orbán and his government accuse Ukraine of cutting the supply of Russian oil flowing through the Druzhba (‘Friendship’) pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, threatening their energy security.

Ukraine says that the pipeline was destroyed by a Russian strike – again, insanely suggesting Russians would destroy their own pipelines, like they did when the Nord Stream was destroyed.

Keep reading

US offensive on Iran burned through an estimated $779M on first day

US forces spent an estimated $779 million, or about 0.1% of the entire 2026 US defense budget, during the opening 24 hours of its offensive against Iran, according to estimates and data compiled by Anadolu.

The US’ CENTCOM confirmed that the massive deployment included B-2 stealth bombers, F-22, F-35, and F-16 fighter jets, A-10 attack aircraft, and EA-18G electronic warfare planes. The operation also utilized MQ-9 Reaper drones, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems.

Four B-2 stealth bombers, flying non-stop from Whiteman Air Force Base in the US state of Missouri, struck targets using 2,000-pound (907-kilogram) Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), according to CENTCOM. Known for high maintenance requirements and a 40,000-lb (18,143-kg) payload capacity, the B-2 operations alone accounted for an estimated $30.2 million, based on flight hours, maintenance costs, and munition requisitions data from the US Defense Department’s 2025 and 2026 budget requests.

CENTCOM’s buildup of various fighter jets of F-18s, F-16s, F-22s, and F35s contributed to the initial strikes, according to a post by CENTCOM on US social media company X. Based on flight hours, maintenance costs, and munition requisitions data from the 2025 and 2026 US department budget requests, these sorties cost an estimated $271.34 million.

Specialized aircraft, including the EA-18G Growler, A-10C Thunderbolt, and the MQ-9 Reaper, played a critical role alongside the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS). When factoring in P-8 Maritime Patrol aircraft, RC-135 reconnaissance planes, and aerial refueling tankers, as well as land-based HIMARS batteries, the cost for the combined air and ground assets, including the fighter jets, reached approximately $423.57 million.

The two US carrier groups in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, also took part in the attack. The cost of operating the aircraft carriers along with their contingent of destroyers and littoral combat ships is estimated to come to $15 million a day.

Additionally, CENTCOM also released videos of its navy deploying scores of Tomahawk cruise missiles. While exact numbers remain classified, estimates suggest that roughly 200 Tomahawks were fired, totaling $340.4 million in munitions costs.

Combining these expenses, the total estimated cost for the U.S. strikes conducted last Saturday alone stands at $779.174 million, or some 0.1% of the 2026 US defense budget.

Keep reading

Trump’s Plan To Escort Ships Through Strait Of Hormuz Would Put U.S. Navy Warships In The Crosshairs

U.S. Navy could soon be escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime traffic has effectively stopped due to the current conflict with Iran, according to President Donald Trump. Doing so would demand that American naval vessels transit through the Strait, shifting them away from other duties. More importantly, it would also mean putting them right in a super weapons engagement zone full of Iranian threats that could include cruise and ballistic missiles, one-way-attack drones, explosive-laden kamikaze boats, and naval mines.

“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” President Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social social media network.

“Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf,” he also wrote. “This will be available to all Shipping Lines.”

“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH,” he added. “More actions to come.”

U.S. Central Command declined to comment when reached for more details. TWZ has also reached out to the White House.

The Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is just 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest point. A significant portion of the waterway falls within Iran’s national waters, which also overlap with those of Oman to the south. Under normal conditions, maritime traffic flows in and out through a pair of established two-mile-wide shipping lanes. Each year, roughly one-fifth of all global oil shipments, and an even higher percentage of seaborne shipments, pass through this one waterway. It is also a major conduit for liquid natural gas exports. Some 3,000 ships, including tankers and container ships, pass through each month.

Keep reading

Hegseth Brags of Mass Killings

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on Wednesday boasted of the “death and destruction” the U.S. military can rain down on Iran, as reports say that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have killed over 1,000 Iranian civilians in just four days.

Hegseth said at a press briefing that the U.S. and Israel should soon have “complete control of Iranian skies” and that it would mean “Iranian leaders looking up and seeing only U.S. and Israeli airpower.”

“Every minute of every day until we decide it’s over, and Iran will be able to do nothing about it. B-2s, B-52s, B1s, Predator drones, fighters controlling the skies, picking targets, death and destruction from the sky all day long,” he added.

[As the Pentagon is reportedly seeking an additional $50 billion to wage its unauthorized war on Iran] Hegseth said the war wasn’t meant to be a “fair fight” and mentioned that the administration has loosened the rules of engagement for the military.

“Our war fighters have maximum authorities granted personally by the president and yours truly. Our rules of engagement are bold, precise, and designed to unleash American power, not shackle it. This was never meant to be a fair fight. And it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be,” he said.

Hegseth said that in the attack on Iran, which he has dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” the U.S. military has “delivered twice the air power of ‘Shock and Awe’ in 2003,” referring to the massive bombing campaign that opened the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said at the conference that the U.S. had hit over 2,000 targets inside Iran so far.

Keep reading

Beyond Oil: How The Iran War Could Send Food Prices Soaring

In the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, the financial press has reflexively focused on oil. Tanker traffic, Brent crude, and the risk of triple-digit prices dominate the discussion.

But oil is not the only commodity posing a serious long-term risk.

Another deep vulnerability runs through natural gas—and from there into nitrogen fertilizer. If commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were significantly restricted, the impact would extend beyond fuel markets. It would reach directly into global food production.

That’s because the Gulf region is not just a major energy exporter. It is one of the world’s most important suppliers of nitrogen fertilizer—the foundation of modern agricultural yields.

The Energy Behind the Food System

Nitrogen fertilizer begins with natural gas. Through the Haber-Bosch process, methane is converted into ammonia, which is then upgraded into urea and other nitrogen products. In practical terms, nitrogen fertilizer is natural gas transformed into plant food.

Roughly half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen. Without it, crop yields would decline sharply.

Globally, about 180 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers are consumed each year (measured in nutrient terms). Of that, roughly 55 to 60 million metric tons of urea move through international seaborne trade annually. The Middle East accounts for approximately 40% to 50% of that traded volume.

And nearly all of those exports must transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Keep reading

Israel warns citizens abroad to avoid Chabad houses amid terror fears

The National Security Council warned Thursday of serious concerns over potential attacks against Israelis abroad, saying Iranian-linked actors and other groups may be attempting to target Israeli and Jewish sites overseas.

In a statement, the council said that since the start of Israel’s military campaign against Iran, known as Operation Roaring Lion, it has identified “a surge in motivation and an increase in terrorist activity and threats” by Iranian security bodies and affiliated groups to target Israelis and Jews worldwide.

The advisory said Iranian-linked actors were also attempting kinetic attacks in countries around Iran and across the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan, raising concerns about possible strikes against Israeli-related targets in those areas.

The council said several attempted attacks against Israelis had been foiled in recent days. It also warned of an increased threat from lone attackers.

According to the statement, a lone gunman opened fire March 1 in a nightlife district in Austin, Texas, in an attack linked to tensions surrounding U.S. strikes on Iran. In another incident on March 3, gunfire was reported at Jewish-related sites in Toronto, though the suspect had not been identified.

Israel first issued a warning to Israeli travelers abroad on Saturday, the day Operation Roaring Lion began. The updated advisory reiterated and expanded safety guidance for Israelis overseas, including a new warning regarding travel through the United Arab Emirates.

The National Security Council advised Israelis to avoid transit flights through the UAE until further notice. The existing travel advisory for the country remains at Level 3, indicating a moderate threat.

Keep reading

US racks up billions in losses during first four days of war as Iran pummels key Pentagon assets: Report

Iran’s retaliatory strikes on US assets in the Persian Gulf have caused at least $2 billion in losses for Washington since the start of the war against the Islamic Republic, Anadolu Agency reported on 4 March.

Almost fifty percent of the losses result from Iran’s destruction of a US AN/FPS-132 early warning radar system at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is worth $1.1 billion.

The Islamic Republic also took responsibility for shooting down three F-15E Strike Eagles over Kuwait on Sunday, an incident US Central Command (CENTCOM) claims was caused by “friendly fire” from Kuwaiti forces. The estimated cost to replace the jets is $282 million.

Attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Forces (IRGC) also caused heavy damage to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, destroying two satellite communications terminals and several large buildings.

“Using open-source intelligence reports, the targeted SATCOM terminals were identified as AN/GSC-52Bs, which approximately cost $20 million, factoring in deployment and installation costs,” Anadolu Agency reports. 

Tehran has also reported destroying the AN/TPY-2 radar component of Washington’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air-defense system deployed at Al-Ruwais Industrial City in the UAE, estimated to be worth $500 million.

“Combining these costs, Iran has damaged $1.902 billion worth of US military assets in the region,” the Turkish news agency says.

On top of these losses, Washington spent at least $2.3 billion during the first four days of the war, which was launched without congressional approval by using post-9/11 emergency laws.

The first 24 hours of the so-called “Operation Epic Fury” alone cost around $779 million, including pre-strike mobilization expenses of $630 million.

“At the current scale of operations, a three-week war could easily exceed tens of billions of dollars in expenses,” the Center for American Progress (CAP) estimated on Tuesday.

The US public policy research and advocacy organization also emphasized that “a conservative estimate for the initial costs of Operation Epic Fury is more than $5 billion as of March 2—and the campaign is just getting started.”

More losses still need to be accounted for, as the IRGC and its regional allies have targeted at least seven US military sites across West Asia since the start of the war, destroying several US diplomatic missions and intelligence sites belonging to the CIA and Mossad.

Keep reading