Tag: inflation

If This Is Winning, America Can’t Afford Much More of It

“We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, ‘Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.’”—Donald Trump

Donald Trump promised Americans they would get tired of winning.

If this is what winning looks like, America can’t afford much more of it.

We are losing ground economically. We are losing credibility abroad. We are losing tourists, workers, stability, trust, constitutional guardrails, and whatever remained of the illusion that the government answers to “we the people.”

The tourism economy is taking a hit, with international visitors increasingly reluctant to come to the United States. Even migration—the lifeblood of America’s economic growth, innovation, labor force and national renewal—is now moving in the wrong direction. Fewer people are coming in, more Americans are leaving, and by some estimates the country has already crossed into negative net migration.

That is not the mark of a nation “winning.” It is the mark of a nation people are increasingly choosing to escape.

Even the looming World Cup—normally an economic windfall for tourism, travel and hospitality—is being shadowed by the administration’s immigration crackdown, detention protests and threats to disrupt international travel at key airports.

That is what happens when a nation treats visitors, immigrants and dissenters as threats first and human beings second: people stop coming, businesses suffer, and fear becomes official policy.

The economy, despite the administration’s relentless victory laps, is flashing warning signs: downgraded growth, strained consumers, rising costs, depleted savings, and policy chaos that leaves families, small businesses and entire industries guessing what fresh disruption tomorrow will bring.

We are being worn down by the losses.

Meanwhile, the man who promised to end wars has presided over their continuation and expansion. The man who promised to bring prices down has helped drive uncertainty up. The man who promised to drain the swamp has turned government into a spoils system for loyalists, cronies, contractors, oligarchs and power brokers. The man who promised law and order has treated the law as something to be weaponized against enemies and waived for friends.

This is not winning.

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The Market’s Biggest Buyer May Be Disappearing

Yesterday, as part of laying out the two paths I can see the economy taking, I wrote that beneath the surface, the American consumer is tapped out. The average consumer – AKA the “retail investor” – has been a key in driving the stock market higher the past half decade.

This morning, I noticed two reports that came out yesterday that add to the conclusion that this “retail investor” looks increasingly broke. 

Yesterday The Wall Street Journal highlighted how rising prices and the highest interest rates in decades have pushed even relatively high-income households into financial distress. One example was a hospital operations director earning nearly $200,000 annually who accumulated $15,000 in credit card debt at a 26% interest rate. Despite making the minimum payments, the balance barely moved.

And the broader data confirms this isn’t an isolated story.

As I’ve noted, the percentage of credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent climbed to 13.1% in the first quarter, the highest level in 15 years and the worst reading since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Total credit card balances reached a record $1.25 trillion for a first quarter, while average credit card interest rates have surged from 14.6% in early 2022 to roughly 21% today.

Delinquency rates have risen across low-, middle-, and high-income households alike. In other words, this is no longer just a lower-income problem. The financial strain is moving up the income ladder, which fits perfectly with what I’ve been writing about for months.

Student loan delinquencies have also exploded higher as repayment obligations returned. Credit card delinquencies have surged to post-financial-crisis highs.

Auto loan defaults, particularly among subprime borrowers, are sitting near multi-decade extremes. New data from Experian shows that nearly 19% of new vehicle loans now carry monthly payments of at least $1,000, up from 17.4% a year ago and more than triple the 5.4% level seen just five years ago.

Contrary to popular belief, these aren’t primarily luxury vehicles, either. Roughly three-quarters of the loans are tied to mainstream models, led by popular pickup trucks like the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado, and Ram 1500.

The surge reflects years of rising vehicle prices and larger loan balances, with the average amount financed reaching a record $43,952 and the average monthly payment climbing to an all-time high of $770. While delinquency rates remain below 2018 levels overall, both 30- and 60-day late payments are increasing, with the most significant stress emerging among subprime borrowers, who face the highest risk of default as elevated rates and larger loan balances continue to strain household finances.

Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, the personal savings rate has collapsed back toward historic lows as households burn through what little financial cushion remains.

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Inflation Jumps to 3-Year High as Critics Say Trump Economic Promises Have Turned to Dust

A key federal inflation measure released Thursday shows that US prices jumped to a three-year high last month as President Donald Trump’s illegal Iran war and tariffs continued to push up consumer costs at gas pumps and grocery stores across the country.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose at an annualized clip of 3.8% in April, the fastest pace since May 2023. Even when food and energy prices were stripped out of the measurement, the index rose 3.3% last month compared to a year ago—the highest level since November 2023.

“Today’s numbers tell the story: Families are paying more for gas, food, and housing and utilities,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “Donald Trump promised to lower costs ‘on day one,’ but instead inflation is running ahead of wages as his failed economic agenda hollows out Americans’ paychecks.”

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also found that Americans’ personal savings rate fell to its lowest level since June 2022, plummeting to 2.6% as higher prices force households to spend more on basic necessities.

“This is stunning,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote on social media, noting that the personal savings rate was 5.5% in April of last year. “That’s a sharp plunge. It underscores how squeezed Americans are right now with higher prices and incomes not keeping up.”

Consumer spending grew by $111.1 billion last month, according to BEA data, with “gasoline and other energy goods” making up the largest portion of the increase. Trump administration officials have attempted to spin rising consumer spending as evidence of broad optimism about the US economy, even with consumer sentiment at an all-time low.

“Prices remain stubbornly high because President Trump refuses to bring down the cost of living for working families,” said Breyon Williams, chief economist at the Groundwork Collaborative. “Trump is making Americans pay more, first via his tariffs and now because of his war in Iran, causing prices at the pump to skyrocket. At the same time, he remains fixated on his lavish billion-dollar ballroom that the taxpayers will fund and a $1.8 billion slush fund for his supporters.”

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House Passes E15 Bill as Government Panics Over Energy Crisis Begins

Congress is pushing nationwide year-round E15 gasoline because they are worried about fuel supply disruptions and soaring prices as the war cycle intensifies. They call it “consumer choice” and “energy independence,” but when you strip away the political marketing, what they are really doing is diluting the fuel supply because they are terrified of shortages and price spikes.

The House just passed H.R. 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, by a vote of 218-203. The bill would permanently allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline nationwide. E15 is gasoline blended with 15% ethanol instead of the standard 10%. Congress and the EPA are presenting this as some patriotic victory for farmers and consumers while pretending Americans are not noticing what is really taking place.

The government keeps saying E15 lowers prices at the pump. Of course, it does on paper. You are blending more ethanol into the fuel supply. Ethanol contains less energy per gallon than pure gasoline. That means your mileage declines and your tank empties faster. People end up buying more fuel more often while politicians brag that prices “fell” a few cents per gallon. Americans are paying more for less while Washington pretends this is economic progress.

The EPA openly admitted the purpose behind the emergency waivers was to “prevent disruption in America’s fuel supply” as the Iran war pushed energy markets into panic. They are not doing this because the economy is strong. They are doing this because they are worried about supply itself.

“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers. Allowing the summer sale of E-15 will provide drivers more options at the pump, and deliver a bigger domestic market for American farmers,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. The government is congratulating itself for putting lipstick on a pig. Trump spent years condemning Biden’s energy policies that led to elevated prices for different reasons. Washington does not want voters to look at an $ 8-per-gallon situation and suddenly realize that government policy has failed yet again because politicians continually act in their own self-interest while jeopardizing the entire country. The people always suffer when government instigates war. Quite unfortunate as Trump promised to keep America out of the Middle East, but somewhere along the way he morphed from a businessman into a politician. Human nature is consistent.

Governments dilute and stretch what they can at the beginning of a crisis. They lower standards quietly while telling the public everything is under control. You see it in currencies, banking, food quality, and now fuel. The objective is always the same: make a limited supply appear larger. Could this improve consumer sentiment regarding energy? People are still going to pay more at the pump. The end result is higher prices which equates to angry and fearful consumers. It is absolutely insulting for our overlords to question our intelligence in this manner. They genuinely believe we are too stupid to notice.

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Japanese Are Feeling the Economy Collapse in Real-Time

Japan spent decades trying to convince the world that endless debt, money printing, and zero interest rates could continue indefinitely without consequences. Now ordinary Japanese citizens are beginning to feel the pressure directly as inflation rises, wages fail to keep pace, and living standards steadily deteriorate underneath the surface.

For the first time in generations, Japanese households are experiencing sustained cost-of-living stress while confidence in economic stability weakens sharply. Recent polling showed more than 80% of Japanese households now believe prices are rising faster than their incomes, while consumer confidence remains near recessionary levels despite years of government stimulus and intervention. Food inflation, utility costs, transportation expenses, and housing-related costs have all risen materially as the yen weakened dramatically against the dollar over recent years.

The psychological impact inside Japan is enormous because the country spent decades living through deflationary conditions where prices remained relatively stable. Japanese consumers became accustomed to stagnant prices and low borrowing costs. Once inflation finally arrived, the shock to household budgets was immediate.

Rice prices alone surged more than 20% year-over-year at one stage while basic food staples, imported goods, fuel, and electricity all moved sharply higher. Japan imports enormous quantities of energy and raw materials, which means yen weakness translates directly into higher consumer prices across much of the economy.

This is exactly what I warned would eventually happen once central banks lose control of sovereign debt cycles.

Japan now carries government debt exceeding 260% of GDP, the highest among major industrial economies. For years the Bank of Japan artificially suppressed interest rates and monetized government debt through massive bond purchases. The BOJ effectively became trapped because allowing rates to normalize aggressively would destabilize the government’s own financing structure.

Now Japan faces the consequences of that trap.

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Exploiting Veterans To Advance An Unaffordable Housing Agenda

One of the side effects of our misguided monetary policy in recent decades is the spike in home ‘values’.  Housing is one of the most common inflation hedges this side of gold.  It gives investors a relatively safe place to park their resources, and put them to work. 

But it’s not just big institutional investors who act as landlords.  Almost 9 in 10 such homes are owned by those who can count their entire portfolio on one hand. 

So while federal lawmakers bemoan the ‘affordability’ crisis that they arguably created, state and local lawmakers are left to deal with it.  Too often though, they make things worse.

Last week the San Antonio City Council banned landlords who own five or more rental homes from declining to rent to veterans for the express reason that they use a federal housing voucher as partial payment. 

This is another example of government showing insufficient understanding, much less respect for, the supply side of the economic equation.  This tendency has even penetrated our cultural lexicon.

When my financial literacy class discussed “unearned” income recently, returns from rentals was included with investments in stocks, bonds and the like.  I felt the need to clarify the term. 

Speaking from experience, landlords are ‘on’ 24/7, dealing the tenant concerns, neighborhood/HoA issues, etc.  Plus, when tenants move out, the clock starts ticking. 

The condition of the property must be assessed, cleanup is needed, and repairs might be necessary.  Then there’s marketing, sifting through prospective new tenants, and signing an agreement.

If I got that knocked-out in 4-6 weeks, I was content.  Considering I had a full-time job, was raising four daughters, and teaching at night, I considered that timeframe a win.  That is not “unearned.” 

Insert government meddling, and you introduce a new, unique headache into the process. 

When I started renting, my realtor brought up the possibility of accepting section 8 vouchers.  “It’s a steady income,” he said.  I declined, but not because I’m uncharitable.  Once when a tenant’s husband left, I lowered her rent for the remainder of the lease.

I declined section 8 because I didn’t want to deal with potential bureaucratic hassle, like the inspection headaches laid out by a local landlord.  Sidewalk problems that are the “city’s responsibility.”  Repairs to floors devoid of any actual problems.

I just wanted to convert the house I used to live in into a rental that could eventually help pay for my daughters’ college.  Landlords like the author on the other hand, are trying to help others in the community of lesser means, people who could use a hand-up. 

Aren’t citizens like her the same ones whose virtues are extolled by politicians, aiding citizens that those pols claim to care for?  This issue presents one of the clearest contrasts between the private sector and the public sector.

On the one hand, you have people serving a market demand, in this case with altruistic intentions, and with their own resources. 

On the other hand, you have politicians who promise ‘affordable’ housing on the campaign trail, put citizens on the hook for a staggering amount of debt that their property taxes finance, and then kneecap those who are already doing the work. 

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Migrants ‘to be handed 40 per cent of new homes by 2030’

Nearly four in 10 new homes built by 2030 will be needed to accommodate migrants arriving in Britain, according to fresh analysis.

The research, conducted by the Conservative Party, draws on projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

According to the OBR, net migration between 2026 and 2030 is expected to reach almost 1.2 million people.

Using ONS data on average household size, the Conservatives estimate this would require around just under 500,000 additional homes for new arrivals alone.

Britain is projected to deliver about 1.34 million new homes over the same period.

The Conservatives say this means 37.1 per cent of all homes built over the next five years would be needed to house migrants.

By 2030, that proportion is forecast to rise to 39.1 per cent.

Government figures also suggest migration-driven demand could increase property prices by around £9,489 per home.

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How Free Markets Should Work

The call for government intervention into market pricing is ancient. This call was resisted politically in the West until the decade before World War I began. After that war ended in 1918, the West saw the triumph of the isms: Communism, Fascism, National Socialism, Fabianism, and the smaller isms that arose in the wake of the larger isms.

Calls for government intervention into the price system have multiplied. Hazlitt’s book dealt with lots of these calls. But these calls have played second fiddle in the West to three government-bankrupting ideas: government pensions, government health care for the aged, and military empire. Europe is further along the path to bankruptcy because of the first two programs, along with government health care for the whole population. The United States has specialized in war since 1946.

Because of the price-disrupting effects of central banking and fractional reserve banking—both of which are government-licensed monopolies—the state’s interventions in these closely related sectors of the economy have subsidized the allocation of capital away from what consumers would have chosen, had politically favored special-interest groups not been furnished with fiat money. The economy of the world is now addicted to monetary inflation. Among modern economists, Austrian School economic analysis alone focuses on these disrupting effects. This outlook is not known by the public, and it is rejected by academic economists.

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WHAT MEDIA BIAS? Look How CNN Framed Inflation Under Joe Biden Versus Trump

CNN is a horribly biased outlet. Everyone with a brain knows this, but sometimes their bias is so stunning it deserves to be pointed out.

They recently tweeted something about inflation, and one smart Twitter/X user from the Daily Wire held it up alongside a similar tweet from when Biden was still in office.

Even though the numbers are far better under Trump, the Biden era tweet sounds like good news, while the recent Trump era tweet sounds negative.

FOX News reports:

CNN called out for framing of inflation under Trump versus Biden in viral post

CNN is facing social media backlash after a social media user pointed out a perceived disparity in how the outlet framed the economy under President Donald Trump versus former President Joe Biden.

Following a Tuesday post on X from CNN regarding inflation under Trump, Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips pointed to a contrast in how inflation is framed now compared to Biden’s time in office.

In March 2023, CNN posted to their X account that “US inflation is still high, but it’s falling,” noting that the previous month’s “Consumer Price Index measured 6%, down from January’s 6.4%.”

Fast-forward to 2026, the outlet wrote on X that “US inflation remained at 2.7% in December, underscoring persistent cost of living challenges.”

This disparity in framing prompted Phillips to upload an image showing both statements, pointing out the difference between how CNN framed 6% inflation under Biden versus 2.7% inflation under Trump.

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A Bipartisan Push to Revive a 1930s Law Could Make Grocery Prices Even Higher

Groceries, like almost everything these days, are seeing prices rise. Millions of Americans have tempered some of these hikes by purchasing bulk goods at wholesale prices at warehouse club retail stores such as Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club. But these savings could soon cease. A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers is looking to crack down on wholesale prices by reviving a nearly 90-year-old antitrust statute.

In the weeks leading up to Congress’ winter recess, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R–Iowa) solicited the signatures of fellow Senate Republicans on a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Andrew Ferguson asking them to investigate supply practices that hurt small businesses, particularly grocers. Reason has acquired a copy of the letter, which calls on Bondi and Ferguson “to utilize all federal laws…to bring enforcement actions against any discriminatory conduct that you may discover in violation of…the Robinson-Patman Act.”

The Robinson-Patman Act (RPA) is a 1936 antitrust law that bans discrimination “in price between different purchasers of commodities of like grade and quality…where the effect of such discrimination may…tend to create a monopoly in any line of commerce.” After a period of strong enforcement in the mid-20th century, recent decades have witnessed a marked decline in federal RPA cases: Before the FTC, under the leadership of Chairwoman Lina Kahn, sued Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits for selling alcohol to larger retailers at lower per-unit prices in December 2024, it had been more than 20 years since the federal government filed an RPA suit. Then–FTC Commissioner Melissa Holyoak dissented from Khan’s complaint, which she characterized as “elevating the interests of competitors over competition” in a way that was “at odds with the plain text” of the RPA.

Grassley argues that the statute recognizes certain forms of price discrimination as harming competition, but he doesn’t acknowledge that the RPA allows price differentials that reflect “differences in the cost of manufacture, sale, or delivery resulting from the differing methods or quantities in which such commodities are to such purchasers sold or delivered.”

Grassley claims that a lack of competition is forcing independent grocers “to accept increasingly discriminatory terms and conditions for their products, including less favorable…price terms”—even as he rightly describes the grocery business as “experienc[ing] high turnover and low margins.” Such phenomena are textbook indicators of a competitive industry, not a monopolized one.

Grassley also claims that “independent businesses are often the only source of groceries, consumer goods, or pharmaceuticals in many small towns and urban centers.” If this were true, such small businesses needn’t worry about larger firms receiving bulk price discounts; they wouldn’t be competing with them at all.

Of course, the opposite is true. Local businesses face intense competition from Amazon, Walmart, Target, FreshDirect, CVS, Walgreens, and the myriad other firms that ship groceries, goods, and drugs directly to consumers. These large firms enjoy bulk discounts and attract customers by passing on part of their savings to them in the form of lower prices.

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