Tag: economy

Unprecedented Times: “It’s Hard To Keep Up, Even By Experienced Folks”

That we are living in unprecedented times was borne out by events in the last couple of days again. Indeed, it is probably hard to keep up, even by experienced folks.

The London silver market saw the spot price of silver pushing above $51 per troy ounce on Friday (and higher again this morning) due to a short squeeze and shortage of silver in London vaults. Some say the situation now, in particular the lack of liquidity, is comparable or even worse than in the early 1980s when the famous Hunt brothers tried to corner the market (after which silver crashed).

Meanwhile, crypto markets saw on Friday what data tracker Coinglass dubbed the “largest liquidation in history”, leading to hefty declines in cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. But significant losses were also recorded in global equity markets, with the S&P500 down 2.7% and investors seeking refuge in ‘safe-haven’ bond markets (10Y USTs -11bp, German Bunds -6bp).

That volatility was clearly driven by the strong-worded warnings by President Trump at the address of China (more on that below), although there were other factors at play, including (geo)political instability. Indeed, just name me one country where the political situation is stable, where there is no ‘polarization’ of society and where policy making is ‘boring’… Still thinking?

In France, newly appointed PM Lecornu, who threw in the towel last week after trying to glue together a group of parties able to steer a budget through parliament was re-appointed by President Macron, again with the same task: …to glue together a group of parties able to steer a budget through parliament. On Sunday President Macron announced the new cabinet, headed by Lecornu.

The turn of events, including Lecornu’s conclusion that it should be possible to reach a deal on the 2026 budget, supported French bonds on Friday. But we think there is not much scope for a further rally in the near term. In fact, as we pointed out last week, we think there is not much scope for a further rally in the near term. Political risks remain until the budget negations are concluded. Both key parties on the far left and right have already indicated they will not support this cabinet and so Lecornu will need all the support he can get elsewhere. It is not to be excluded that he will be toppled again in a no-confidence vote this week. But if he stays, negotiations are likely to remain tough. Most parties underscore the need for a budget, but they will undoubtedly demand (further) concessions, which may weaken fiscal consolidation. In the longer run, that leaves the French curve more vulnerable to future fiscal setbacks.

However, the political focus shifted back to Japan last Friday as the long-standing LDP-Komeito coalition collapsed following Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader. She was set to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister after Shigeru Ishiba stepped down, but Komeito withdrew support over disagreements, particularly on stricter party funding rules. While Takaichi’s leadership is now uncertain, she may still retain power if she can secure backing from parts of the fragmented opposition. Otherwise, snap elections are a real possibility.

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New York Doubles Down on Delivery Wage Disaster

In 2023, New York City became the first city in America to pass a minimum wage rate for app-based restaurant delivery drivers. Several other progressive cities have followed suit, resulting in a range of issues from rising delivery costs to many drivers dropping out of the workforce entirely. Now, the city that started it all is doubling down—this time on grocery delivery drivers.

In July, the New York City Council passed numerous bills that it claimed were designed to protect grocery delivery drivers. This legislative package introduced new rules, requiring delivery apps to include a 10-percent tipping option either before or at the time of the order (vs. afterwards, where the option exists now), and mandated that app-based platforms pay delivery drivers within seven days of the end of a pay period.

One of the most notable bills would extend New York City’s minimum wage mandate from restaurant delivery drivers to drivers delivering groceries. The rate, first set at $19.96 per hour in 2023, has risen to $21.44 per hour. Though current Mayor Eric Adams eagerly endorsed the original law (saying at the time, “Our delivery workers have consistently delivered for us—now, we are delivering for them”), he surprisingly vetoed the new expansion. “Now is not the time to do anything that will further increase the cost for New Yorkers of obtaining groceries, when prices are already too high,” Adams said in his veto statement.

Despite mayoral resistance, the City Council has decided to plow forward anyway by overriding Adams’ veto.

New York’s experiment with delivery driver wage mandates hasn’t gone well. Pay went up after the 2023 rule kicked in, but so did prices—and many drivers left the market altogether. The city saw an 8 percent drop in its delivery workforce, while food delivery costs rose 10 percent, including a 12 percent jump in restaurant prices and a staggering 58 percent spike in app fees. Tips, meanwhile, plunged 47 percent. Platforms even started capping drivers—at one point, Uber Eats reported more than 27,000 New Yorkers were on their driver waitlist.

Seattle followed suit in 2024 with a $26-an-hour minimum wage for delivery drivers—and immediately watched the system collapse. Apps tacked on a new $5 delivery fee, and with taxes added, customers were soon paying bills with nearly 30 percent of the cost unrelated to the food itself. DoorDash saw 33,000 fewer orders in just the first two weeks, wiping out about $1 million in restaurant sales.

Counter to the law’s intention, many Seattle delivery drivers saw their earnings slashed by over half. “Demand was dead,” according to one such driver. A recent report from gig companies found that, following the ordinance taking effect, delivery orders dropped 25 percent, and driver pay fell 28 percent per hour logged on.

Even Seattle’s City Council president, who initially backed the mandate, later proposed cutting the topline rate to $19.97, in line with the state’s minimum wage. The partial repeal failed to pass.

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California’s Fast Food Minimum Wage Hike Cost the State 18,000 Jobs. That Shouldn’t Surprise Anyone.

In 2023, California passed a law requiring a $20 per hour minimum wage for all fast-food restaurants with more than 60 locations nationwide. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom portrayed the union-supported law as pro-worker, saying it moved the state “one step closer to fairer wages.”

Other California politicians supporting the law claimed it would provide a path to economic security for lower-income workers, enabling them to more assuredly put food on the table.

“Sacrifice, dedication, and the power of a government who serves its people is what got us to this moment,” said then-Assemblymember Chris Holden (D–Pasadena).

But the carve-out for smaller chains was an implicit acknowledgment that the law would come with costs—costs that smaller businesses with slimmer margins presumably could not afford. New research suggests that the mandate has also resulted in fewer jobs for struggling entry-level workers.

The law went into effect in April 2024 and increased the hourly pay of an estimated half a million workers across the state. But without the law in place, thousands more workers would likely have been employed.

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US Farmers Are Facing The Worst Economic Downturn In At Least 50 Years

The agriculture industry in the United States is deeply broken. Farmers are the foundation of it all, but they are being financially squeezed from every direction. They are being squeezed by the giant monopolies that control the seeds, fertilizer and machinery that they need. And they are also being squeezed by the giant monopolies that purchase most of what they produce. Meanwhile, demand from overseas has dried up thanks to the global trade war. U.S. farmers really are facing a “perfect storm”, and as a result most farms are losing money and bankruptcies are surging.

Most Americans have absolutely no idea how bad it has gotten.

According to the president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, this is the worst economic downturn for farmers in at least 50 years…

“We’re in the middle of the worst economic downturn that I’ve seen in my 50 years,” John Hansen, the president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, said at a regional meeting in Beatrice, Nebraska, last week.

“Agriculture is our foundation here in Nebraska and many states in the Midwest,” Don Schuller, a corn and soybean farmer, told ABC News. “If agriculture is failing here everything is going to fail.”

I wish that I could tell you that he is exaggerating.

But I can’t.

A sobering article that was recently published by AGWEB that was just shared with me is warning that our farmers are facing a “generational collapse”…

Farmers are not crying wolf. The wolf is real and right outside the door in the form of generational collapse.

The inescapable crop math of sustained crippling commodity prices and high input costs has many growers screaming for immediate relief, potentially via aid payments in late 2025 or early 2026. However, bailouts are Band-Aids over bullet holes.

The giant monopolies that provide the things that our farmers need increase their profits by squeezing farmers, and the giant monopolies that purchase what our farmers produce increase their profits by squeezing farmers.

For a while, many farms could still at least break even, but now conditions have gotten so bad that many farmers are losing hundreds of dollars per acre…

Yes, says Bailey Buffalo, 40, owner of Buffalo Grain Systems in Jonesboro, and president of Farm Protection Alliance.

“Horror stories. The pain is unreal. Worst farming situation I’ve seen in my life,” Buffalo says. “Look at Extension [University of Arkansas] numbers — corn growers losing $240 per acre; soybeans losing $144 per acre; and rice losing $380 per acre. The cotton growers may be worst of all.”

This is what I mean when I say that the agriculture industry is broken.

So what is going to happen as vast numbers of our farmers simply go bankrupt?

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Furry fury at government wasting $250,000 on creepy mascots… as families face bankruptcy amid brutal shutdown

Costumed government mascots that have cost taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars would be sent packing under one GOP senator’s plan to slash spending amid the government shutdown.

Iowa Senator Joni Ernst is taking aim at characters including Franklin the Fair Market Fox, from the Department of Housing, and Puddles the Blue Goose, from the Fish and Wildlife Service, as she appeals to Trump’s budget chief to cut costs.

Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said in a memo issued before the shutdown that ‘Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees’ working in programs that are ‘not consistent with the President’s priorities’ should be sent by individual agencies.

Ernst, who chairman of the Senate DOGE caucus, plans to ask during a floor speech on Friday that riff-raff like government mascots and other ‘do-nothing bureaucrats’ be fired immediately.

A single outfit for a mascot at the US Embassy in Singapore cost taxpayers a whopping $22,000 in February, and the government spent a jaw-dropping $250,000 at a costume company in Ohio in 2019, according to Ernst’s office.

Ernst told the Daily Mail last week that keeping 750,00 non-essential workers on the government payroll costs $400 million every working day. 

The total cost of keeping these workers has crossed $2.8 billion since the government shutdown began, she said.

Ernst’s other potential cost-cutting measures include eliminating the positions of federal employees and contractors who were not even working before the shutdown, and others who have said that they get paid to take naps and watch Netflix.

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Trump’s base (apart from the Zionists) is increasingly restive. Venezuela, Iran, Israel, Ukraine policies are deeply unpopular. The economy is becoming toast. How will he move to regain popularity?

Does President Trump think a new war or two can save him? Nope—his BS maneuvers bombing Iran were a joke, a fake show of strength that bought him absolutely nothing except loss of respect.

UKRAINE

His claim of concern for the waste of life in Ukraine led to no reasonable offers to end that conflict. Here is what the West did to Russia (and the US still leads the West) to provoke this war:

  1. Trashed the 2014 Maidan agreement
  2. Built up a large Ukraine army and transferred many arms to Ukraine subsequently
  3. Applied very strict sanctions on Russia
  4. Encouraged neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine to continually terrorize the Russian-speaking eastern regions, killing about 15,000 citizens
  5. Placed criminal, compromised Zelinsky (a comedian) in as President to do the West’s bidding
  6. Attempted to blow up all 4 Nordstrom pipelines that brought Russian gas to Europe, and managed to blow up 3 with 2 charges placed on one line

Well, the West, its NATO and the US have expended a huge amount of money and lives in hopes of grabbing Russia’s resources after chewing up most of the fat in their own countries. And look where it has gotten them. The crazed European leaders with open immigration, Net Zero, 15 minute cities, etc., in addition to election thefts and now sending troops to Ukraine, have destroyed their countries’ economies. And lost all shred of dignity and morality. They are desperate, cornered, and we fear where they will go from here. Will the US go with them?

ISRAEL

Meanwhile, the West encouraged Netanyahu to impose the final solution on Gaza—putting his country’s future at grave risk, encouraging antisemitism everywhere, and murdering and terrorizing millions of innocent civilians. Using the excuse of Hamas’ terrorism. But we can never forget that Israel funded Hamas or allowed Qatar to fund Hamas—it is one or the other, the facts are very clear—supposedly to keep Gaza from allying with the West Bank. But what if it was also to lay the groundwork for an October 7 excuse to empty Gaza of its 2 million inhabitants?

Why is Trump handing Israel the weapons to continue its “war” in Gaza? This is no war, it is a massacre. Simply look at the casualty figures if you disagree with me.

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Democrats Are Playing Chicken With Americans’ Livelihood Because Illegal Aliens Dominate Their Policy Priorities

As the federal government shutdown stretches into its fourth day, the impasse between Republicans and Democrats shows no immediate signs of breaking. With funding lapsed since October 1, non-essential services hang in the balance, and political finger-pointing intensifies. Democrats have been receiving an unprecedented volume of blame for the “Schumer Shutdown” as some in legacy media have uncharacteristically reported some of the truth.

Richard Stern, director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at the Heritage Foundation, points to two specific pay dates that could shift the dynamics: October 10 for essential federal workers and October 15 for military personnel.

Stern explains that these deadlines carry real weight because “at the end of the day, I think they’re going to get the blame that I think they deserve,” referring to Democrats who rejected a Republican-backed temporary funding bill.

This bill aimed to keep government operations running for seven weeks while negotiations continued, but Democrats held firm on demands to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies to illegal aliens. Elaborating on this standoff, Stern describes the Democratic approach as one where they “stomp [their] feet and make a dramatic situation out of it.”

Such tactics, he argues, prioritize controversial spending items like foreign aid for transgender surgeries and abortions, increased funding for NPR and PBS, and a massive $1.5 trillion welfare program extension that would strip away anti-fraud measures and broaden eligibility to legal aliens. This perspective aligns with broader Republican criticisms that Democrats are leveraging the shutdown to push unrelated policy goals, as echoed in statements from the White House, which has launched a “shutdown clock” to track the disruption and attribute it to Democratic intransigence.

One Democratic voice capturing this resolve comes from Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Mich., who declared, “We got to make sure Americans have the healthcare that they need, and if that means we’ve got to shut the government down, so be it.”

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The U.S. Government Doesn’t Want You To Read This Report on Israel’s Business Deals

The U.S. government doesn’t want you to read what Francesca Albanese, the U.N. special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, has to say. In July 2025, the State Department announced that it was going to freeze her assets for her “lawfare that targets U.S. and Israeli persons.”

Albanese, the State Department press release noted, had “directly engaged with the International Criminal Court (ICC)” at The Hague “in efforts to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute nationals of the United States or Israel, without the consent of those two countries.” And she had “recently escalated this effort by writing threatening letters to dozens of entities worldwide, including major American companies across finance, technology, defense, energy, and hospitality, making extreme and unfounded accusations.”

A few weeks earlier, Albanese had submitted her report to the U.N. Human Rights Council, “From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide.” It accuses several global companies of profiting “from the Israeli economy of illegal occupation, apartheid and now genocide,” including Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Palantir, Caterpillar, and even Booking.com. (The report also mentions that companies have been asked for comment, which appears to be the “threatening letters” referred to by the State Department.)

Whether or not one accepts Albanese’s characterization of Israel’s actions, the report itself is an interesting read on the economics of war. The report details how some firms profit directly from providing the state with the tools to inflict violence while others take advantage of the state’s monopoly on violence to grab a monopoly on resources. Albanese calls for international sanctions, legal action, and consumer boycotts aimed at changing these companies’ behavior.

The U.S. government’s attempts to stop the report from being published in the 
first place make it especially worth reading.
Politicians have long wanted to erode Americans’ right to vote with their wallets, and they’ve used boycotts of Israel as a test case to introduce wide-ranging anti-boycott laws. By accusing the United Nations of “lawfare” for simply printing a report, the government is attacking the right of consumers and investors to hear information that lets them make politically conscious decisions.

The Palestinian rights movement has made boycotts a central pillar of its activism, but the actual choice of targets has often been sloppy and incoherent. Activists have gone after Coca-Cola and Pepsi as vague symbols of America and Starbucks over a union dispute that tangentially involved Palestinian symbolism. The infamous protests at Columbia University focused on cutting
indirect ties to weapons companies.

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Economic Freedom Begins Recovery From COVID-Era Government Meddling

The good news is that the first 20 years of the millennium saw overall increases in economic freedom around the world—with continuous improvement through the second decade. The bad news is that not just the United States but most of the world lost ground during the massive government interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s unfortunate for individual liberty, but also for prosperity since the economic freedom of a country strongly correlates with higher incomes and lower poverty. The world appears to be recovering freedom and wealth, but it lost years of progress to government meddling.

The latest edition of the Economic Freedom of the World report, published by Canada’s Fraser Institute, the Cato Institute, “and more than 70 think tanks around the world” is out, and it finds the world digging itself out of a hole that started in 2020.

“Overall, the index shows that economic freedom has increased since 2000, but fell precipitously following the coronavirus pandemic, erasing nearly a decade of progress,” the authors note. “We take no position on the efficacy of the various public-health policies designed to deal with the coronavirus pandemic; they very well may have saved millions of lives, or they may have been completely ineffectual….Our concern is economic freedom, and on that margin, there is no question that government policies responding to the coronavirus pandemic have reduced economic freedom.”

While global economic freedom has started to improve again as the pandemic and its interventions fade into memory, the average across nations is back to where it was in 2012. Weighted for population, which accounts for large countries with statist governments including China, the world’s economic freedom is just a hair better than it was in 2013 and has yet to start recovery from the COVID-era dip.

The index shows North America experiencing the largest decline over the measured period, with Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and North Africa following. “The latter region’s decline is especially tragic given its low starting point,” comment the authors.

“In 2023—the latest year for which data are available—the 10 highest scoring nations were Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, the United States, Ireland, Australia and Taiwan (tied for 7th), Denmark, and the Netherlands.”

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‘Big losses’: Study confirms Newsom’s $20-an-hour minimum wage decimated industry

Gavin Newsom, California’s far-left Democrat governor, is known to have presidential aspirations.

If he chooses that path, one of issues on which he will face a grilling will be economics.

And a new study has revealed it won’t look good.

It’s because since he imposed a $20-an-hour minimum wage for fast food workers in his state, California has lost close to 20,000 such jobs.

“That’s nearly 25% of the country’s fast-food job losses during that same period, according to an analysis of quarterly data released this month from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” charged a report in the Washington Examiner.

“These grim statistics should be a wake-up call for Newsom and other policymakers pushing for drastic wage hikes that will cause unintended consequences,” said Rebekah Paxton, if the Employment Policies Institute.

The Examiner report noted Newsom “was all smiles two years ago when he signed the FAST Recovery Act, creating a $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers in his state. He called the legislation a win-win-win that would benefit restaurant owners, their employees, and customers alike.”

But it’s actually left behind “big losses.”

Besides job losses, there have been staff cuts, huge menu price increases and a turn to automation, the report said.

“California made national headlines when two large Pizza Hut franchises laid off more than 1,200 in-house delivery drivers to cut costs, while others, such as Mod Pizza and Foster’s Freeze, decided to close up shop entirely,” the report noted.

Paxton said, “Newsom’s $20 wage has turned out to be nothing more than a boost to his own ego at the expense of fast food workers. His consistent claim that the law is a ‘win’ is out of touch with reality, and lawmakers looking to mirror his job-crushing policies should think twice.”

Further, the analysis found even workers who kept working lost.

“The law has cost nontipped restaurant workers 250 hours of work annually, according to the EPI analysis, which represents $4,000 in lost income under the state’s previous minimum wage for fast-food workers.”

And, according to the American Cornerstone Institute, it’s hit small businesses hardest.

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