Tag: economy

US stock markets fall, oil soars as Trump promises to bomb Iran ‘back to the stone age’

The value of US stock markets fell, while the price of oil soared in early trading on 2 April following US President Donald Trump’s speech in which he vowed to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age.”

The president said on Wednesday evening from the White House that the US would continue its bombing campaign on Iran “until our objectives are fully achieved,” suggesting the war will last longer than expected.

“I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly. We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks – we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” Trump vowed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell some 1.3 percent when the US stock market opened the following morning. The S&P 500 index was also down 1.3 percent, while the Nasdaq composite was down 1.7 percent. Much of the losses were recovered over the course of the trading day.

Oil prices rose sharply and remained high throughout the day. The price of US crude rose to $113 – a 13 percent gain.

Brent crude, the international baseline, rose more than eight percent, to $109 per barrel.

US stock markets rallied, and the price of oil fell to start the week, after Trump stated on Sunday he was having “serious discussions” with a “new and more reasonable regime in Tehran.”

But the price of oil has risen following Trump’s remarks, which underscored that the war will not end soon and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed indefinitely.

Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on 28 February, the strategic waterway has effectively remained closed due to the threat of Iranian attacks and soaring insurance premiums for vessels wishing to transit it.

Energy prices have since skyrocketed, as Gulf oil exports through the strait have ground to a halt.

During his Wednesday address, Trump expressed no urgency in opening Hormuz, instead criticizing European nations suffering from fuel shortages for refusing to send their own warships to reopen it.

“To those countries that can’t get fuel – many of which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves – I have a suggestion,” he said.

“Number one, buy oil from the United States of America; we have plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed courage … Go to the strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done.”

Trump claimed that Hormuz would likely “just open up naturally” at the close of the war.

He called rising gas prices in the US a “short-term” matter, while claiming “the United States has never been better prepared economically to confront this threat.”

Regarding Trump’s threats, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said Thursday that Tehran has “no choice but to fight back strongly.”

“We will not tolerate this vicious cycle of war, negotiations, ceasefire, and then repeating the same pattern,” he said in a statement reported by state media. “This is catastrophic not only for Iran, but for the entire region and beyond.”

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Beneath the Big Lie About Iran – An Economy That’s Been Shrinking for 50 Years

At some point it is wise indeed to pay heed to the numbers – and that’s overwhelmingly true with respect to the battling narratives about the Donald’s Iran War now raging in the Persian Gulf. The fact is, the Iranian “threat” is almost entirely an ideological and political sham confected by Bibi Netanyahu and his neocon fifth columns on the banks of the Potomac.

They would have you believe that Iran is some kind of super-Evil Empire that is a military threat to the whole world, including way over here 10,000 kilometers from Tehran.

We beg to differ. Completely. And Defiantly, Too.

At the end of the day, a realistic, deliverable, sustainable military threat to the Homeland territory of America – the only valid reason for military action by a peaceful Republic – must necessarily be anchored in a robust economic base of GDP. That’s the only place from which the advanced technology, professional military manpower, abundant tax revenues and other economic resources needed to support a massive War Machine can be obtained.

Yet without massive defense budgets and weaponry – both a nuclear first strike capacity and an overwhelming conventional armada of invasion and occupation – no nation on planet earth would have the capacity to threaten America. Not way over here inside the safe harbor of the great Atlantic and Pacific Moats.

Based on the hard economic data for the last 53 years, therefore, one thing is crystal clear: When it comes to the economic girth needed to support a true military threat to US citizens on American soil from sea-to-shinning-sea, Iran is, was and always has been a Flyspeck.

And, ironically, Washington’s decades of brutal economic warfare against Iran has drastically weakened its economic strength relative to that of the US, even as it has solidified the rule of the religious mullahs, who’s theocratic regime has further throttled Iran’s economy.

Thus, back on the eve of the oil crisis in 1973 and notwithstanding 20-years of the Shah’s systematic larceny, US GDP was only 8.4X that of Iran. Likewise, Iran’s respectable real GDP per capita of $13,239 was nearly half that of the USA at $28,500.

At the time, the Iranian $410 billion economy ($2025 USD) was also the most robust in the middle east by a long shot. Stated in 2025 USD, the Iranian economy was orders of magnitude larger than any of its regional rivals:

1973 Real GDP In 2025 $:

  • Iran: $410 billion.
  • Saudi Arabia:$170 billion.
  • Egypt: $130 billion.
  • Israel:$75 billion.
  • Syria: $30 billion.
  • Jordan: $10 billion.

But that’s all she wrote. For nearly the entire past half-century the girth of Iran’s economy has been steadily and relentlessly shrinking relative to that of the United States. Accordingly, there is now (2025) a staggering difference in the final column, which measures the real GDP of the US in 2025$ versus that of Iran. Today that crucial ratio now stands at 35.4X or more than four times greater than it was in 1973.

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The not-so-hidden agenda behind Mamdani’s budget bumbling

Mayor Zohran Mamdani is making a show of cutting the budget, with videos of him looking for millions under sofa cushions.

He’s pretending he’s leaving no stone unturned to close a $5.4 billion budget gap.

Don’t buy it. These are token gestures meant to suggest the city has cut all it can, giving Albany cover to justify what he hopes comes next: Mamdani’s tax hikes on high earners and employers.

Sure, cutting low-value government spending deserves some credit, but the problem is that Mamdani’s savings are mostly speculative or trivial.

Even the largest cut so far, $100 million from removing ineligible health-care dependents, would only materialize if auditors find such dependents.

And even if he reaps all the $1.7 billion in savings that he’s seeking, it would still leave that $5.4 billion hole untouched.

In other words, his budget assumes those savings are real, even though they may never materialize, leaving not a $5.4 billion but a $7.1 billion gap.

Meanwhile, he’d be spending on things like a three-year, $1.86 billion, no-bid deal with the hotel industry to provide homeless shelters, including for migrants, who now have no time limit on their stay.

He somehow found another $260 million for a new “Mayor’s Office of Community Safety,” an office with just two staffers.

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Chicago moves toward reparations with bus tours and town halls as $150M deficit looms

Chicago took its first step after establishing a reparations task force two years ago.

Now, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson plans to hold a public engagement forum called Repair Chicago to “gather lived experiences of harm of Black Chicagoans” in an effort to provide reparations for Black residents.

“Your experience is evidence, and we’ve placed it at the center of our work,” Johnson said. “By engaging directly with residents, we are grounding this work in the voices and lived realities of the people it is meant to serve.”

The first event took place Tuesday, and two more events are scheduled through April.

Johnson’s office announced the Repair Chicago effort would involve “bus tours, panel discussions, town halls and hearings,” helping the task force members gather input for the administration’s reparations study. 

“The community engagement process will gather input from Chicagoans across the city to better understand Black Chicagoans’ experiences across generations and how systemic racism has shaped their lives, opportunities and well-being,” Johnson said.

The move comes two years after Johnson named his chief equity officer, Carla Kupe, to lead the reparations task force with $500,000 in funding. 

In 2024, Johnson signed an executive order establishing a reparations task force of 40 members that addresses “historical harms committed against Black Chicagoans and their ancestors through the form of reparations.”

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California’s $20 fast food wage yields higher prices, fewer jobs, more automation

Two years ago, a hotly contested law imposing a $20-per-hour minimum wage on franchised fast food outlets took effect.

The legislation, Assembly Bill 1228, emerged from months of intense political conflict, pitting fast food behemoths such as McDonalds against service worker unions, arguing not only over the wage itself but what the industry saw as an effort to undercut its business model.

Eventually the industry agreed to a higher wage in exchange for unions leaving the franchise system unmolested and the creation of a commission to oversee wages and working conditions.

Ever since, fast food corporations and labor interests have jousted over the law’s impact, with both waving economic reports to bolster their positions.

The industry warned that the FAST Act, as it was dubbed, would push fast food prices upward and employment opportunities downward. Unions and their allies contended it would benefit fast food workers with few, if any, negative impacts.

The situation cried out for independent evaluation, not only to settle the arguments but to provide guidance on the consequences of political intervention on wages in any industry.

Thankfully, we may have that study.

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The Donald Gets a Double-Whammy

It sure looks like the Donald is on the receiving end of a double-whammy. His victory declaration in Iran looks to rank right up there with George Dubya Bush’s “mission accomplished” pratfall on the deck of a US aircraft carrier in 2003; and that also means that his SOTU boasting about defeating “Joe Biden’s” inflation and getting the gas pump price under $2 per gallon is out the window, too.

What’s back in play front and center, therefore, is the AFFORDABILITY issue come November. The Dems have no clue about how to fix it, of course, but they sure as hell will be brutally pounding the GOP candidates and the Donald with the latter’s own bogus hot air on the matter.

For want of doubt, consider the conflagration in the global oil markets at this very moment. At ground zero in the Persian Gulf, the major crude oil from the region have already shot the moon.

Thus, Oman crude prices are up to $154/barrel, crossing $150 for the first time ever. At the same time, Dubai crude is up to $130/barrel, while Brent is trading at $110.

This means, in turn, that the gap between Oman and world prices is off-the-charts wide, and now stands at 30% or $44 per barrel. By comparison, before the Iran War, the difference between all benchmarks was just $5 per barrel during January and February.

In very short-run, of course, Brent and WTI are priced based on US and European supply conditions, while the actual disruption is concentrated in the Middle East, meaning they do not fully capture the severity of the physical shortage. YET.

On the other hand, global crude oil markets everywhere and always eventually get arbitraged, causing the major marker grades to fully reflect worldwide supply, demand and inventory conditions. So unless the Gulf is re-opened within a matter of days, the marker grades will soon rise toward these Gulf prices as global inventories continue to be liquidated.

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Power Without Principle: The Rise of the Bully Presidency

“When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything… Grab ‘em by the pussy. You can do anything.”— Donald J. Trump on seizing women, Access Hollywood (2005)

“I think I can do anything I want with it. Whether I free it, take it, I think I can do anything I want with it.”—Donald Trump on seizing Cuba (2026)

It’s been 20 years since Donald Trump bragged that, as a star, he could do anything—even assault women—and get away with it.

Two decades later, what once sounded like crude bravado has become a governing philosophy: might makes right, power excuses everything, and accountability is for other people—not this president.

Despite the Access Hollywood recording—and everything it revealed about his character—Trump was elected to the White House twice. And ever since, he has governed exactly as he promised: as a man who believes he is unaccountable, entitled, and free to act without limits.

The same mindset that once bragged about being able to “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters” has now been scaled up and weaponized through the presidency.

With a core MAGA following that seems unwilling to hold him accountable for any wrongdoing, Trump has justifiably earned his nickname as “Teflon Don.”

He can be accused of sexually assaulting young girls, and he won’t lose any voters. He can, as commander-in-chief, sanction the bombing of a girls’ school in Iran—killing young girls, their mothers and teachers—and he won’t lose any voters. He can torpedo a thriving economy, sending inflation and gas prices soaring, and he won’t lose any voters. He can dismantle a government structure that has been in place for over 200 years, and he won’t lose any voters. He can be a walking—talking—living contradiction of everything Christians claim to stand for, and he won’t lose any voters. He can send Americans servicemen and women to die in wars that the U.S. had no business starting, and he won’t lose any voters.

This is the mindset now shaping American policy.

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The $3 Trillion Private Credit Crisis Nobody Is Talking About

Blackstone raided its own balance sheet to cover record $3.8B in redemptions. Blue Owl froze withdrawals. PE stocks down 25-61%. Steve Eisman and forensic accountant Tom Gober say the insurance industry is the missing piece of the next financial crisis.

Sup, freaks.

The private credit market is cracking in real time. Blackstone just had to raid its own balance sheet and its employees’ wallets to cover a record wave of redemptions from its flagship $82 billion credit fund. Blue Owl permanently froze redemptions on a retail fund two weeks ago. Private equity stocks are down 25% to 61% from their highs. And the man who called the 2008 crisis, Steve Eisman, just sat down with a forensic accountant who says the insurance industry is the missing piece of the puzzle. This is a story that should be front page news but isn’t. Today we dig in.

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How War in Iran Affects Grocery Prices for Everyday Americans

Walmart has essentially eradicated all of the mom & pop grocery stores where I live in western Kentucky. Which, for better or worse, forces virtually the entire city’s population to descend on the store for grocery shopping. As you walk into the store, you will inevitably be bombarded with messages from the intercom to get a flu shot or some other seasonal vaccine. This will be followed by a reminder that soda and potato chips are on sale.

Shopping in the local Walmart presents a fair picture of middle America. The county’s poverty rate is above 17%, homes are unaffordable, drug addiction is rampant, and wages remain stagnant. Among all of these issues, the rising cost of grocery prices make it challenging for many people in the community to afford real, whole foods. The unfortunate alternative is to purchase cheap junk food, go to a local food pantry, or simply go without. The simple reality is that many Americans can no longer keep up with rising costs in the grocery store.

But what does this have to do with war in Iran?

We often hear that Congress has passed a new defense budget, ever again surpassing its previous allocations. The most recent appropriations allocated $838 billion to military services in FY26 and now both President Trump and his domestic allies are calling for an increase to $1.5 trillion. For everyday Americans, that number is frankly unfathomable. But have you ever questioned, how does America pay for war?

Income tax has not always been permanent in America. But to give you the short version of the story, it was created to fund war and then later adopted as a permanent fixture. During times of war, Congress has periodically increased taxes to fund operations. However, politicians can only raise taxes so much before citizens begin caring about where their dollars are going. As a result, we no longer increase taxes for the sole purpose of funding wars.

Instead, we use debt. Because the public would be unwilling to fund wars through taxes, the American government defers to borrowing money. But where does that money come from? There is never enough capital in circulation to fulfill the American bloodlust, so it must be printed.

The American government’s incessant use of debt as a means to pay for wars of choice directly devalues the dollar’s purchasing power by forcing banks to digitally print money. Every dollar borrowed inflates our currency which, in turn, increases prices for everyday goods while working class compensation remains stagnant. It has held true for decades that wages do not and will not keep up with inflation.

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Report: NAFTA Cut Lifespans for American Factory Workers

The economic impact of the 1994 free trade deal with Mexico chopped a year off many Americans’ lives, according to a report in the New York Times.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) boosted Wall Street by sending millions of U.S. jobs to lower-wage workers in Mexico. The civic cost is described in a new study titled ‘Trading Goods for Lives: NAFTA’s Mortality Impacts and Implications.”

“In the first 15 years of NAFTA, about 3 percent of 45-year-old men lost a year of their remaining life expectancy as a result of the trade deal,” hte newspaper reported, adding:

The researchers saw increases in mortality across most major causes of death, including illness, drug overdoses and suicides. The overall trends particularly affected working-age men, and were more pronounced in the Southeast and parts of the Midwest, like Michigan.

Matthew Notowidigdo, one of the report’s authors, said in an interview that the work highlighted an “underappreciated cost of globalization.” In the cities and towns facing new competition from Mexican factories, “life expectancy falls, and it hits really hard on men,” he said.

“We’re talking about a lot of life years lost,” he added.

The study concluded:

In the 15 years post-NAFTA, an area with average NAFTA exposure experienced an increase in annual, age-adjusted mortality of 0.68 percent … an increase that more than erases prior estimates of the welfare gains from NAFTA’s nationwide economic benefits. Mortality increases appear across all broad age by sex groups, but are particularly pronounced among working-age men, a demographic that also experienced disproportionate NAFTA-induced declines in (primarily manufacturing) employment

President Donald Trump renegotiated the three-nation NAFTA deal in 2018 to help Americans. This year, he is expected to review the replacement treaty, dubbed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with Mexico and Canada.

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