Tag: arctic

600b tons of carbon emissions and Arctic sea ice stays the same for 20 years

One third of all human emissions has had no effect on the Arctic

Since 2005, humans have emitted one third of all the emissions we’ve ever put out — some 600 billion tons of CO2. Yet the Arctic sea ice is the same as it was twenty years ago. And even though the modelers cling to the excuse that this is “consistent with simulated internal variability” there was not one model that forecast this would happen.

For twenty years arctic sea ice was the Posterchild of Panic, and on the verge of disappearing forever, while Antarctic sea ice was invisible. Now the sea ice at the South Pole is at “a climate tipping point”, and the northern sea-ice is just a surprise.

Even when sea ice does nothing, it’s dramatic:

As long as the buzzwords are there in the headlines, The Guardian readers may  not even realize the scientists were completely, utterly wrong, and all the hand-wringing and tears about the polar bears was just a fundraising publicity stunt.

Remember, bad news is due to man-made climate change, but good news is a natural variation, and it’s only temporary. The Prophets of Climate say disaster is just around the corner still.

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.   …they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years.

It’s just how rampant Blob-media bias works, and the Blob-academics are fine with that.

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Russian Arctic region under drone attack – governor

Russia’s Murmansk Region, located mostly north of the Arctic Circle, is being targeted by drones, local governor Andrey Chibis has said.

Air defenses have been intercepting incoming UAVs in the region, Chibis wrote on Telegram on Sunday.

“Enemy drones have attacked the territory of Murmansk Region,” he wrote.

The governor urged the population to remain calm and report all incidents to the authorities.

Also on Sunday, several drones targeted a military installation in Irkutsk Region, central Russia. Local Governor Igor Kobzev said it is the first UAV raid in Siberia.

The attack occurred in the settlement of Sredny, some 150km from Lake Baikal, Kobzev wrote on Telegram. He added that the drones were launched from a tractor-trailer. “The source from where the UAVs came had been blocked,” he said.

Kiev has significantly intensified drone raids into Russia in recent weeks, targeting Moscow and other regions. Russia has responded by launching a series of large-scale missile and UAV strikes against Ukrainian military-related infrastructure.

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Burgum Orders Nearly 20 Million Acres In Alaska Opened For Oil, Gas Development

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has directed the Bureau of Land Management to “pursue steps to expand opportunities for exploration and development” of oil, gas, and mineral resources across nearly 20 million previously off-limits acres within Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve (NPR) and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

The move was not unexpected after President Donald Trump issued a Jan. 20 ‘Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential’ executive actions package mandating federal agencies “expedite permitting and leasing of energy and natural resource projects,” prioritize “development of Alaska’s liquified natural gas (LNG) potential,” and expand fossil fuel development in the 23-million-acre NPR and 19.6-million acre ANWR.

Burgum followed through with a Feb. 3 order requiring the Bureau of Land Management to “exercise all lawful authority” in developing a plan to implement the president’s policy.

“It’s time for the U.S. to embrace Alaska’s abundant and largely untapped resources as a pathway to prosperity for the nation, including Alaskans,” Burgum said in a March 20 press release announcing the directive.

The sweeping actions by Trump and Burgum, who also chairs the National Energy Dominance Council, rescind “all regulations, orders, guidance documents, policies, and any other similar agency actions … promulgated, issued, or adopted between Jan. 20, 2021, and Jan. 20, 2025,” essentially erasing dozens of actions related to Alaska by President Joe Biden and his administration.

During Trump’s first term, Congress directed the Department of Interior (DOI) to open a 1.56-million acre coastal plain area within ANWR’s Section 1002 to oil and gas drilling for the first time when it adopted the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the area could hold up to 11.8 billion barrels of oil.

However, the Biden administration auctioned only 400,000 acres in January 2025, drawing no bidders because “new severe restrictions” imposed in November 2024 made “any development economically and practically impossible,” Alaska argued in a Jan. 5 lawsuit that alleged DOI and the Bureau of Land Management were in violation of the TCJA.

Under the executive actions and Burgum’s directive, the bureau must now make the entire 1.56-million-acre ANWR coastal plain and 82 percent of NPR available for oil and gas leasing. More than 13 million of NPR’s 23 million acres had been off-limits to development for decades since at least 1980.

“For far too long, the federal government has created too many barriers to capitalizing on the state’s energy potential,” Burgum said.

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Arctic Defense: The Growing Geopolitical Battle For The North

The Distant Early Warning Line (DEW Line) runs north of the Arctic Circle from Alaska in the west to Baffin Island in the east, then continues across Greenland.

It was built by the United States, with the cooperation of Canada, at the height of the Cold War in the 1950s as a defence against the Soviet Union.

Most of the self-sufficient bases on this line had a paved runway, with equipment and personnel necessary to keep the runway cleared. The bases had to be operational for the dozens of fighter planes that were kept at the ready by U.S. Strategic Air Command, in case Soviet jets came over the North Pole.

Most of those sites fell into disuse, and the DEW Line became the North Warning System. Not much has happened since then. 

Although the federal government has promised to address the deterioration of our defences, nothing of substance has been done by Ottawa to deal more effectively with the defence of our vast North. Similarly, although the government has promised to modernize its NORAD (North American Aerospace Defence Command) commitments, it has been largely ignored.

The Trump administration has made it clear that it finds Canada’s defence readiness to be unacceptable. The complaint is legitimate.

The fact is that the world is very different from what it looked like in the 1950s and 60s. At that time, the Soviet Union was the major threat to the West, while communist China was desperately poor and weak. Under Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” and later his “Cultural Revolution,” millions starved. China looked then more like North Korea than the economic and military behemoth it has become today. We certainly didn’t fear it as a threat.

Now, both communist China, and an increasingly aggressive Russia are formidable foes. They are also very interested in the North. Ominously, they have recently partnered with each other in a “friendship without limits” which raises the possibility that they might collaborate (or be collaborating right now) on joint plans for the military and commercial exploitation of the North.

The fact that shipping on a large scale through the Northwest Passage might be a possibility in the not-so-distant future is one of the reasons why. The passage can cut shipping distances drastically, so huge amounts of money and fuel can be saved. Future passage from Asia to Europe via the Northeast Passage (also called the Northern Sea Route) and Northwest Passage would be incredibly valuable—strategically, militarily and commercially—for both Russia and China.

Russia is far ahead of Canada on northern strategy and development. It has at least 40 ships capable of breaking through ice, including eight nuclear-powered icebreakers. Canada has no icebreakers that are nuclear powered. Recent promises to build two are years away from fruition. The Americans are acutely aware of Russia’s northern superiority.

Northern security goes some way to explaining Donald Trump’s very public offer to buy Greenland. 

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Russia Has Offered Trump A Deal – Includes Oil And Access To Arctic – Moscow Could Scale Back With Beijing

In a potential bargaining move, the Kremlin may offer Trump that Moscow is willing to scale back its ties with China in exchange for concessions from Washington, reported The Moscow Times.

Russia believes that American oil companies may return to the country, and is also interested in joint projects with the United States in the Arctic, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said before the talks in Saudi Arabia, reported The Moscow Times.

According to Dmitriev, one of three delegates selected by Vladimir Putin to meet with the Americans in Riyadh, Moscow considers it important to resume economic cooperation with the United States.

Major oil companies from the United States had “very successful business ” in Russia, Dmitriev said: “We believe that at some point they will return, because why would they refuse the opportunity to access Russian natural resources that Russia gave them? ”

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NATO’s Arctic Strategy Is an Overreaction  

In July, the U.S. Department of Defense released its first Arctic strategy guide since 2019. Washington’s concerns peaked when American and Canadian jets intercepted two Russian Tupolev TU-95 strategic bombers and two Chinese H-6 bombers operating in international airspace around 200 miles off the coast of Alaska. While the United States must ensure the security of its territory, including Alaska, overreacting and developing a militaristic hyperfocus on the Arctic, where U.S. interests are limited, would be a blunder. 

The Arctic strategy document highlights the threat of recent Sino-Russian collaboration in the Arctic, citing PLAN and Russian Navy ships operating together in international waters off the coast of Alaska in 2022 and 2023. Russia, which controls the largest swath of Arctic territory of any Arctic nation, has expanded and modernized its Arctic military infrastructure. The region is of great importance to Moscow, as Russia aims to defend its second-strike, sea-based nuclear deterrent capability operating out of the Kola Peninsula to defend the homeland and protect its regional economic endeavors, including oil and gas megaprojects like the Yamal LNG and Vostok Oil ventures. 

Meanwhile, China’s activities in the Arctic have been mainly economic in nature. In the 21st century, China has invested over $90 billion in Arctic energy and minerals sector projects. Beijing’s economic activity aligns with its 2018 Arctic Strategy, which mentions Beijing’s aim to gain more influence in its claim as an Arctic stakeholder. As the U.S. strategy guide mentions, the PRC seeks to promote the Arctic region as a “global commons,” a statement that Washington perceives as an opportunity for China to shift governance of the region in its favor. 

Neither the modernization of Soviet-era military bases nor PRC attempts to construct a Polar Silk Road constitutes enough of a threat to warrant making the Arctic the next battleground of great power competition. Yet the NATO alliance, with Finland and Sweden recently becoming full-fledged members, is determined to confront the perceived threat in the Arctic region.

Although NATO has historically lacked an official position on the Arctic, following the start of the Russo–Ukrainian war in 2022, the Arctic region has become a larger security focus for the alliance. With Finland and Sweden’s ascension to NATO, the alliance’s Arctic presence increased significantly and has been accompanied by large-scale military exercises, such as Nordic Response 2024, which involved 13 NATO countries and 20,000 troops. Moreover, NATO’s new Arctic posture includes enhancing surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as improving interoperability among NATO member states.

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U.S. NAVAL RESEARCH LAB INVESTIGATING UNEXPLAINED ARCTIC PHENOMENA THAT EVADES CONVENTIONAL THEORIES

The U.S. Naval Research Lab (NRL) is assisting an investigation into unexplained arctic phenomena associated with the sudden formation of intense “polar lows” that are known to lead to hazardous conditions at sea.

Since late February, a field campaign, the Cold-Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region, or CAESAR, has been collecting data on the phenomenon underlying these potentially dangerous arctic events by observing cloud formations and other Arctic meteorological conditions.

“These subjectively beautiful clouds serve as a natural lab to study cloud dynamics at a wide range of scales,” said Bart Geerts, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Wyoming and a CAESAR principal investigator, last month.

Based in Kiruna, Sweden, CAESAR is comprised of an international team of scientists and is attempting to determine the meteorological processes underlying Arctic cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), events that pose a threat to sailing vessels and can potentially cause disruptions to Arctic weather systems.

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Brrr… Arctic Sea Ice Melt the Lowest in 15 Years, Antarctic Sea Ice Above Average

Do you remember when AOC said we had only 12 years left on the planet due to “climate change”?

Yeah… She’s an idiot.

We’re going to be fine – and we don’t need to destroy the US economy to save the planet.

The Arctic sea ice is the highest it’s been in nine years. It has increased more than 30% from last year.

And Antarctic sea ice is way above normal.

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