Russia, Iran, and the Caucasian Chalk Circle

It was only a few weeks ago that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met to ink the historic Russo-Iranian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.  The pact itself was a milestone, so much so that commentators around the world are still widely discussing its implications.  Perhaps one of the most striking elements of the treaty is the major focus on Eurasia.  Although Western analysts tend to focus on Russo-Iranian cooperation in the Middle East, the treaty indicates that Eurasia is of even more immediate geopolitical significance to both Moscow and Tehran.  To historians and long-time observers of Iran and Russia, this is hardly a surprise.  The Eurasian region – that is, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Caspian Sea – forms an integral part of the common Russo-Iranian neighborhood.

For the security of both countries, the Caucasus region in particular is especially critical. Defined by its protective mountainous geography and central location between the Black and Caspian seas, the area has long played a major role in the security architecture of both Russia and Iran.  This major geostrategic significance has certainly not been lost on the current Russian leadership, and President Putin in particular.  From the defeat of Islamist terrorists in Chechnya to the success of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the Caucasus has always held an especially important place in Moscow’s geopolitical outlook. Sochi in particular has served as a standard for Russian revival following the freefall of the Yeltsin years.  The region is no less significant to Iran and has always served as a critical security and commercial link for successive Iranian leaders, dating back to the age of Cyrus the Great and his Achaemenid Empire. In this regard, President Pezeshkian’s native Iranian Azerbaijan played a particularly vital role in facilitating Iran’s historic connections with the Caucasus, linking the area to the great trade routes of the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the Silk Road.

Thus, it is hardly a surprise that the Caucasus continues to be a major strategic priority for both Moscow and Tehran.  For the Kremlin, its importance is second only to Ukraine and has been amplified at a time when Western political leaders have called for a “strategic defeat” of Russia.  Especially important for both Tehran and Moscow are the three independent former Soviet republics of the South Caucasus, or Transcaucasia – Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. These countries have been of particular interest to war hawks, neoconservative intellectuals, and big energy interests in Washington and London for decades. All of these groups hold an especially strong desire to realize a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The aim is to use the Caucasus as a bridgehead to access the energy riches of post-Soviet Central Asia, as a means of “containing” Russia, Iran, and ultimately, China.  Israel – and especially the hard-right of the Israeli political elite – has likewise long held interests in the region, with an eye toward using post-Soviet Azerbaijan as an instrument against Iran’s territorial integrity.  Baku regularly receives generous military aid from Tel Aviv in exchange for sending oil to Israel, all while keeping conspicuously mum on the atrocities against Palestinian civilians in Gaza.  Azerbaijan’s closest ally, Turkey, is another major player interested in weakening Russian and Iranian influence in Caucasia. In fact, NATO has delegated to Ankara the task of projecting Western influence into the region, given that Turkey is the one alliance member in closest proximity to the Caucasus.  Ankara pursues this task alongside its own interests, which nevertheless correspond with those of NATO.

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Did We Just See Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan?

A leaked document has given us a first glimpse at Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian online newspaper Strana, U.S. officials handed the plan to European diplomats who then passed it on to Ukraine.

The existence of the plan has not been verified, and Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, has said “no ‘100-day peace plan’ as reported by the media exists in reality.”

If the plan is real, if it is being put on the table by the Trump administration as a finished product that, if rejected, will lead to more sanctions on Russia and more weapons for Ukraine, as Trump has threatened, then the war will go on, and Trump’s promise to quickly end the war will vanish in a puff of delusion. But if the plan is put on the table as a starting point for negotiations, then there is hope. And there is suggestion that it is a starting point.

Here is an item by item analysis of what each side may consider acceptable in the plan and what each side may insist on negotiating further.

The process begins with an immediate phone call between Trump and Putin followed by discussions between Washington and Kiev. That the plan may be intended as a starting point for negotiations is suggested by the fork in the schedule that negotiations will continue if common ground is found or pause if it is not. Further negotiations would lead to an Easter truce along the front line, an end of April peace conference, and a May 9 declaration of an agreement.

Russia has said that the Istanbul agreement could still be “the basis for starting negotiations.” In June, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin set out a peace proposal based on the Istanbul agreement, but adjusted for current territorial realities. Putin’s proposal had four points. Ukraine must abandon plans to join NATO, they must withdraw from the four annexed territories, they must agree to limits on the size of their armed forces, and they must ensure the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

The alleged Trump plan can be evaluated by comparison to Putin’s proposal and to recent statements made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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Russia Says NATO About To Throw Zelenskiy Under Bus By Disclosing Embezzlement Of Billions

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has released a theory about the coming election of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

The information released is very self-serving for the Russian propaganda machine in the war, but there is truth.

Tsarizm has been actively talking about corruption in the Ukrainian government and the siphoning of funds from the war effort for years.

The following is from Russian state news entity TASS.

“NATO would like to see the head of the Kiev regime gone, ideally by way of a pseudo-democratic election. The alliance reckons that this election will be held in Ukraine no later than this fall. Ahead of the election campaign, the NATO headquarters is hatching plans on a massive smear campaign to undermine Zelensky’s credibility,” the SVR said.

Thus, according to the SVR, the plan is to “make public information that the ‘president’ and his inner circle have embezzled more than $1.5 billion from funds meant to buy munitions.” Additionally, the plan reportedly includes “exposing a scheme in which payments meant for 130,000 fallen Ukrainian soldiers—who remain officially listed as active-duty personnel—have been funneled abroad by Zelensky and his associates,” the SVR said. “They also plan to pull the curtain down on repeated instances of the ‘Ukrainian supreme commander-in-chief’s’ involvement in selling large quantities of Western-donated weapons and vehicles to various armed groups in African countries,” writes Russian state news entity TASS.

So, “even NATO realizes that Zelensky’s time is up. It’s just unfortunate that this realization came at the cost of the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens,” it stated.

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“Everyone Is Tired” – Crisis Grows In The Ukrainian Army As Desertions Accelerate

The Ukrainian army is struggling with mass desertions as soldiers grow tired of the war.

According to The Guardian, the exact number of desertions is a secret, but official authorities admit that the number is large.

One soldier told the British newspaper that at the beginning of the Russian invasion, he volunteered for the army and “was ready to give his life,” but over time his attitude changed.

The man, codename “Viktor,” recalled how the Russians were smashing Ukrainian military positions to smithereens, and commanders were issuing unrealistic orders. While defending one of the buildings, he was wounded. He was given only a pain-killing injection and then ordered to return to the fight.

“I realized that I’m nobody. Just a number,” he said. In May of this year, he left his post to undergo treatment and never returned.

“Everyone is tired. The mood has changed. People used to hug soldiers in the streets. Now, they are afraid of being drafted,” he says.

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Trump Should End the Ukraine War Now

President Trump had a simple but profound message about the Ukraine war during his campaign: “I want everybody to stop dying. They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying.”

About two weeks into his second term in office, Russians and Ukrainians are still dying, and not just soldiers. On January 29, a Ukrainian drone killed a mother and her two-year-old child in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. The following day, a Russian drone slammed into an apartment building in northeastern Ukraine, killing six people, who were described as three older married couples.

Trump has reportedly given his envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellogg, 100 days to end the war, and a purported leaked plan drawn up by the administration would call for a ceasefire by Easter to begin talks on a lasting peace deal.

But between now and then, many more Ukrainians and Russians will die. And for what? There’s nothing the US can do now to give Ukraine any real leverage over Russia. Time is on Russia’s side, and everybody knows it. Ukraine will have to make serious concessions to achieve peace, and that will be the situation now and in 100 days.

There are other reasons to stop the war besides the daily casualties. The risk of escalation is still very real as Ukrainian drones are flying into Russia on a daily basis and sometimes target very sensitive infrastructure, including nuclear power plants.

Contrary to what many believe, Ukraine did not build up its drone capabilities by itself. In its final days, the Biden administration decided to reveal a once-secret program that funded Ukrainian drone development to the tune of $1.5 billion. We also know that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia are carried out using intelligence from the West.

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After Ceasefire With Russia, Trump and Kellog Want Ukraine To Hold Presidential Elections – Zelensky’s Mandate Expired in Mid-2024

Amid what US President Donald J. Trump called ‘very serious’ – if still-secret – peace discussions with Russia, some aspects of the sought agreement have started to leak to the press.

One of the most relevant so far is that the US wants Ukraine to hold elections by the end of the year, especially if Kiev signs a ceasefire with Russia in the coming months, according to President Trump’s Ukraine envoy.

Reuters reported:

“Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said in an interview that Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections, suspended during the war with Russia, ‘need to be done’.

‘Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so’, Kellogg said. ‘I think it is good for democracy. That’s the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running’.”

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Euro lackeys pandering to Trump will escalate NATO’s conflict with Russia

It’s a bad combination. A bruising U.S. president with territorial expansion on his mercurial mind and European politicians without any backbone – all too eager to pander to the American bully.

Mixed in with that noxious brew, we also have European elites who are so obsessively Russophobic that they would stab each other in the back just to keep the proxy war on Russia at full throttle.

Donald Trump, whose policymaking is more befitting a Mafia real estate business, wants to grab Greenland as well as Canada, the Panama Canal, and anywhere else that takes his fancy. He wants to “clean out” Gaza, no doubt to flog beachfront properties to millionaires.

Trump has doubled down on his intention to annex Greenland – by military force if needed. His comments have caused Danish leaders to freak out, fearing that the president may order a military invasion of the Arctic island territory, a centuries-old colonial possession of Copenhagen.

Repeating earlier threats, Trump said last weekend: “I don’t really know what claim Denmark has to it, but it would be a very unfriendly act if they didn’t allow that to happen because it’s for the protection of the free world.” (Not like America’s God-given right to Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico, for example.)

Notice how Trump glosses his imperialist real estate interests with the virtue of “protecting the free world.”

The dainty Danes are reportedly in “crisis mode” over Trump’s aggressive takeover. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen went on a whirlwind tour of European capitals on Tuesday to drum up EU solidarity. She held urgent meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris and NATO chief Mark Rutte in Brussels – all in one day.

It’s hilarious to hear European non-entity politicians talk bravely about “defending Denmark” from American threats to its sovereignty and extraterritorial borders. They will do nothing of the sort.

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Putin declares Zelensky illegitimate, stalls peace talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated his stance that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is “illegitimate” and lacks the authority to sign any peace agreements, according to an interview broadcast on Jan. 28 with state TV channel Rossiya 1. This declaration comes as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to strain international relations and humanitarian conditions on the ground.

Putin’s assertion hinges on a decree issued by Zelensky on Sept. 30, 2022, which banned negotiations with Russia, specifically with Putin himself. This decree was a response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Putin argues that because Zelensky’s presidential term officially ended in May 2024, he is no longer a legitimate leader and cannot revoke the ban.

“Negotiations can be held with anyone. But due to Zelensky’s illegitimacy, he has no right to sign anything,” Putin stated. “If Zelensky wants to take part in talks, I will delegate people who will conduct such talks. But the key issue is the ultimate signing of the documents.”

The legitimacy of Zelensky’s presidency under martial law has been a point of contention. Under martial law, which was imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, presidential, parliamentary and local elections are banned. According to Putin, the decree can only be revoked by the speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, who should have become the acting president after Zelensky’s term expired.

However, leading constitutional lawyers and legal experts dispute Putin’s claims. They argue that the Ukrainian Constitution allows for the extension of Zelensky’s term under martial law and that his presidency remains legitimate. The constitution states that the president of Ukraine, even under martial law, cannot extend his term, but the representative branch, the Ukrainian parliament, can have its term extended.

“If there is a will, any issue of a legal nature can be resolved. But so far, we haven’t seen such willingness,” Putin said, suggesting that the Ukrainian leadership could find a way out of this situation by having the parliament circumvent the ban.

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Georgescu Believes Ukraine will Divide – Is He Correct?

Romania’s Calin Georgescu has made headlines once more for calling Ukraine a “fictitious state” and suggesting that the nation will inevitably be divided. This man would have been president of Romania if the establishment accepted the results of the first election. Although he remains the most popular candidate, these statements and views are precisely why those behind the curtain will never permit him to hold power.

“One hundred percent. This will happen one hundred percent. There is no other way. This path is inevitable. Ukraine is an invented state. The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. It is an artificial state; there are no reference points,” Georgescu said in a recent interview. “The world is changing, and borders will change. We have Northern Bukovina, Budzhak (the southwestern part of the Odesa region), Northern Maramureș from former Transcarpathia, what remains with the Hungarians, Lviv, which will stay with the Poles, and Little Russia,” he added.

He also suggested that part of Ukraine will be absorbed by Romania. Honoring the Minsk Agreement could have prevented such a divide. Russia wanted specific regions that have always been historically Russian. The Minsk Agreement would have allowed the people, not the governments, to vote on whether they wanted to join Russia or remain in Ukraine.

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Russia May Lift Restrictions on Nuclear Weapons If US Goes Through With Trump Missile Defense Order

Russia may expand its arsenal of nuclear weapons if the US goes ahead with a major missile defense program that’s been ordered by President Trump, Russia’s TASS news agency reported on Thursday.

Trump signed an executive order on Monday to develop an “Iron Dome for America” that can intercept ballistic, hypersonic, and other types of advanced missiles, unlike Israel’s Iron Dome, which is designed to intercept short-range crude rockets. The order also calls for an improvement in missile defense to protect US troops deployed in other countries and the territory of US allies.

Writing in the Russian journal International Affairs, Grigory Mashkov, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s special ambassador, said the US’s global missile defense posture was already a threat to Russia and said expanding it further “puts an end to the prospects of strategic offensive arms reduction and preservation of strategic stability on the previous terms.”

Mashkov said that it is not “not ruled out that in the current conditions of confrontation with the West, with its policy of inflicting strategic damage on Russia, we may face the need for moving away from restrictions on nuclear and missile arsenals in favor of their quantitative and qualitative increase.”

He said one possible retaliatory measure Russia could take is adjusting its position on the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and other commitments Moscow has made related to the transparency of its nuclear stockpile.

“We will have to take a fresh look at all our commitments in the area of strengthening transparency and confidence-building measures, and suspend discussions on nuclear risks and threats, which are becoming empty talk in the context of growing efforts by the West to undermine strategic and non-strategic nuclear deterrent forces,” Mashkov said.

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