Tag: perpetual war

NATO Countries Will Have to Send Troops to Ukraine or “Accept Catastrophic Defeat”

State Department consultant Edward Luttwak says that NATO countries will have to send soldiers to Ukraine or “accept catastrophic defeat,” and that Britain and France are already making preparations to do so.

Luttwak is a military strategy expert and has served as a consultant to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the Department of State and the US Army.

In an article for Unherd, Luttwak warns that Ukraine’s 800,000 active personnel figure is too low to be successful in a war against Russia and that the country will continue “losing soldiers in the process who cannot be replaced” without major support.

“This arithmetic of this is inescapable: Nato countries will soon have to send soldiers to Ukraine, or else accept catastrophic defeat,” writes Luttwak.

Apparently, it’s already in process.

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Language in the War on Gaza

Israel’s political and military leaders have produced so many outright lies regarding Gaza and Hamas that it might seem there is no point in wasting one’s breath on them. Consider the following statements and the contrary evidence for those not yet convinced:

  • The IDF does not deliberately target civilians, journalists, medical facilities and staff, or restricts aid. In fact, the IDF has deliberately targeted civilians (as widely reported), journalists (as Human Rights Watch has detailed), and medical personnel (according to Amnesty International). It has also put various restrictions on aid.
  • The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) is harboring among its employees Hamas militants who took part in the October 7 massacres. Yet, Israel has not shared any information or evidence to back up its assertions while UNRWA has screened its 13,000 staff in Gaza on a biannual basis.
  • Israel’s declared war on Gaza and the ongoing, undeclared war against Palestinians in the West Bank are “against Hamas” and “terrorists.” In fact, multiple Israeli governments, including the current one, have committed to appropriating all Palestinian territory and committing genocide against the Palestinians currently living there.
  • Iran is the main financier and supporter of Hamas. In fact, other entities like Qatar have been the main supporters of Hamas, and Israel too was instrumental in creating Hamas to divide Palestinian sympathies.

Other statements, however, made by Israeli and other world leaders, that may appear to be true, and that continue to be taken at face value, are in reality dangerously deceptive. Their aim is to justify Israeli politics regarding violence towards Palestinians, actions in support of the current war, or inaction in stopping it. Careful examination of a few of these will expose the ways in which such statements operate.

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“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

With ever-present fears, Tehran could launch a missile or drone attack against Israel to avenge the deaths of three commanders and four officers of the Iranian Armed Forces, taken out by a precision Israeli airstrike at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus earlier this week. New data suggests that GPS jamming across Israel is likely related to prudent defensive efforts to counter such an attack. 

On Thursday, Reuters journalists and Tel Aviv residents said GPS service deteriorated and, in some cases, entirely disrupted as an attempt by the military to prevent guided missiles and drones from hitting critical high-value targets deep within the nation. 

Many bombs, drones, and other weapons use GNSS (global navigation satellite systems) for increased accuracy. Signs of GNSS signals disrupted are more evidence Israel is on the defensive as it awaits missile attacks from Iran. 

Data from the GPS interference website “GPSJAM” shows large swaths of Israel have high levels of GPS interference. 

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How to Read Wars

THE YOUNG DECADE of the 2020s has already seen major wars in the Horn of Africa, Armenia, Ukraine, Palestine, Yemen, and Myanmar, as well as sputtering irregular wars across Africa’s Sahel. What can you learn by looking at these recent wars? The wrong lessons, usually, if you follow the dominant news sources. That coverage almost always advances the “our team” versus “the other team” perspective. There are lessons to be learned from observing modern warfare, but you have to look for patterns, not sentiment, not who claims the moral high ground, not even who has the most advanced military.

Some patterns are plain as day. Sometimes the wars are all too simple, and the disaster is there for all to see. In October 2023, Hamas fighters broke out of Gaza and wreaked havoc for a day before the Israeli Defense Forces took revenge from the air for months, running up the count of dead civilians as if that were the real point—which it was. Only one aspect of the horrific Gaza war has been interesting from a military standpoint: the total failure of IDF and Israeli intelligence to be prepared for the Hamas attack. That’s a level of incompetence with few precedents in military history. You could cite the Red Army’s failure to spot the signs of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, or the United States Navy not noticing that Japanese carriers were steaming toward Pearl Harbor, but there were mitigating factors: Stalin’s touching faith that Germany would abide by its treaty; the Americans’ distaste for espionage in Roosevelt’s time; and the limitations of 1940s technology—no radar and no drone overflights.

The IDF had none of those excuses. They knew Hamas was armed and had vowed a terrible revenge for the blockade of Gaza and the settler violence that the Israeli government was orchestrating in Jerusalem and the West Bank. Israel had 24/7 surveillance over every street corner in Gaza by way of gizmos that they export to the entire world with the cachet that it’s good enough for Israeli border forces. So for the IDF to fail so utterly in Gaza, a tiny enclave one-fourth the size of London and as transparent as a goldfish bowl, is one of the great intelligence debacles in history. Haleigh Bartos and John Chin of the Modern War Institute hypothesize that Israeli intelligence had an outdated idea of Hamas’s capabilities and dismissed warnings that conflicted with their preconceived assessments. The IDF made up for its own failures by inflicting a disproportionate revenge on Gaza. This happens frequently: an army fails in its basic mission and then takes it out on civilians in the enemy territory. With an endless supply of free U.S. air-to-ground munitions, the IDF attempted to erase its shame by erasing the neighborhoods of Gaza one by one. The hecatomb was so savage that even the Biden administration’s lower ranks began to protest. As the proverb saith so wisely, “Even buzzards sometimes gag.”

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OUCH: White House Cancels Annual Ramadan Dinner After Muslims Refuse to Attend

The White House was forced to cancel its annual Ramadan celebration after Muslims refused to attend an event with Joe Biden.

CBS News reports that while the White House held a successful Iftar dinner last year with hundreds of Muslims, this year’s celebrations involved just a handful administration officials:

Last year, President Biden hadn’t even spoken a word at the White House celebration of Ramadan before someone shouted out “we love you.” Hundreds of Muslims were there to mark the end of the holy month that requires fasting from sunrise to sunset.

There are no such joyous scenes during this Ramadan. With many Muslim Americans outraged over Mr. Biden’s support for Israel’s siege of Gaza, the White House chose to hold a smaller iftar dinner on Tuesday evening. The only dinner attendees were people who work for his administration.

…

Alzayat attended last year’s event, but he declined an invitation to break his fast with Mr. Biden this year, saying, “It’s inappropriate to do such a celebration while there’s a famine going on in Gaza.”

After rejections from Alzayat and others, he said the White House adjusted its plans Monday, telling community leaders it wanted to host a meeting focused on administration policy. Alzayat still said no, believing that one day wasn’t enough time to prepare for an opportunity to sway Mr. Biden’s mind on the conflict.

The boycott reflects the growing anger among America’s Muslims communities about Biden’s lukewarm for Israel’s war against Hamas.

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Ukraine Lowers Age of Conscription by Two Years to Fill Troop Shortfalls

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a law that lowers the country’s age of conscription by two years to make up for troop shortfalls.

The new legislation lowers the age of mobilization to 25 from 27 years, meaning more young men will be removed from the struggling Ukrainian economy and sent off to the meatgrinder in anticipation of another Russia summer offensive.

Part of Ukraine’s difficulties in finding new conscripts has been driven by the fact that many young men have either fled the country, faked illnesses or offered bribes to avoid being sent to the front lines.

“Conscription has been a sensitive topic in Ukraine since nearly the beginning of the war, with videos of Ukrainian men being scooped off the streets, presumably to be sent to the front,” reports Remix News.

“The country has suffered from a lack of suitable troops after two years of war and ammunition shortages.”

Videos have previously emerged which purport to show Ukrainians who tried to avoid being conscripted being thrown off a bus and beaten by SBU, Ukraine’s equivalent of the FBI.

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Washington Abandons All Norms To Arm Israel

Despite the U.S. not vetoing a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza during the month of Ramadan, the Biden administration continues to prove itself as a major obstacle to peace in the Middle East.

Washington has previously used its veto powers to block three UNSC resolutions on Gaza, staying true to its role as the main political and economic backer of Israel with its steady supply of arms to support the military offensive. However, by abstaining from voting on Resolution 2728 (2024), it was successfully passed with 14 votes in favor. While the U.S. did not strike down the resolution, eyebrows have been raised after numerous U.S. officials described the resolution as “non-binding.”

“Of course, we still have Israels back. As you and I are speaking, we are still providing tools and capabilities, weapon systems, so Israel can defend itself,” said the White House National Security Communications Advisor, John Kirby, in a press interview. “Again, no change by this non-binding resolution on what Israel can and cannot do in terms of defending itself,” he added.

Additionally, both the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Linda Thomas-Greenfield, and the U.S. State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, have repeatedly referred to the resolution as “non-binding.”

All UN Security Council resolutions are binding, as is made clear under Article 25 of the U.N. Charter: “The Members of the United Nations agree to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security Council in accordance with the present Charter.” Additional confirmation can be found in the 1971 advisory opinion on the question of Namibia by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) which established that all UNSC resolutions are indeed legally binding.

Despite the indisputability of the resolution being binding, Washington continues its attempts to jump through hoops to discredit this fact. The U.S ambassador to the UN argued that since the resolution does not fall under Chapter VII of the UN Charter and therefore does not authorize the use of force to implement it.

Richard Gowan, a former senior official at the UN who currently works at NGO International Crisis Group, provided his insight on Washington’s interpretation in an interview.

“It is clear that the resolution does not contain any enforcement mechanism of its own, and if other Council members proposed sanctions against Israel for non-compliance, the U.S. would veto them,” he said. “So ultimately the resolution is an important diplomatic sign about the need for a ceasefire, but it has little force.”

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Every NATO Country Already Has Troops In Ukraine, Estonia Says

Estonia has long been no friend of Russia, and a leading anti-Moscow hawkish voice within the Baltics, and that’s why a fresh interview by Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur in European media is raising eyebrows as he issued some very revealing statements.

The defense chief said in the interview with the Austrian newspaper Die Presse that all NATO countries already have NATO personnel stationed in Ukraine, but that they aren’t directly engaged in hostilities as they are there in advisory roles. He was responding to recent provocative statements by France’s Macron.

“The reality is that every NATO member country already has military personnel in Ukraine, such as military attaches or people who travel to Ukraine from time to time,” the Estonian defense chief said. “What [French] President [Emmanuel] Macron said mainly related to personnel training,” he added, according to a translation in Russian media.

Starting in late February Macron had told a gathering of top defense officials in Paris that Western boots on the ground in Ukraine should be an option as “we cannot exclude anything” in the pursuit of preventing Russia from winning the war.

Still, in the interview Pevkur emphasized that currently there’s no serious talk of NATO troops directly participating in fighting and that “this has already been ruled out.”

However, he did preview a very dangerous potential plan which would certainly lead to escalation: “Western defense officials are currently planning to set up training camps in Ukraine in a bid to avoid issues with border crossings and to speed up the preparation process,” Pevkur said to the Vienna-based publication.

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Biden administration set to greenlight $18 billion sale of F-15 fighter jets to Israel


The Biden administration is close to approving the sale of as many as 50 American-made F-15 fighter jets to Israel, in a deal expected to be worth more than $18 billion, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The transaction, which would amount to the largest US foreign military sale to Israel since the country went to war with Hamas on October 7, comes as the administration is also expected to notify Congress soon of a large new sale of precision-guided munitions kits to Israel, the people said.

The new sales of some of the US’ most sophisticated weaponry underscore the extent to which the US continues to support Israel militarily, even as Biden administration officials criticize Israel’s operations in Gaza, which have killed more than 32,000 Palestinians since October, according to the Gaza ministry of health.

The sale is likely to be hotly debated in Congress, particularly by members of the president’s own party. US weapons sales to Israel have come under intense scrutiny in recent months and Democratic lawmakers have called for restricting military aid to Israeli until it allows more humanitarian aid into Gaza and does more to protect civilians there.

Since Hamas’ attack on Israel in October, which killed over 1,200 Israelis, the US has made more than 100 foreign military sales to Israel. Most of those have fallen under the specific dollar amount that requires a notification to Congress, an official familiar with the matter previously told CNN.

But an $18 billion F-15 sale is large enough that it requires congressional notification, and the administration informally notified the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees of the F-15 sale in late January, according to two of the people familiar with the matter.

The informal notification gives lawmakers and congressional staff time to review the details and ask questions before the State Department sends a formal notification to all lawmakers.

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Ukrainian Drones Hit Russia’s Third-Largest Oil Refinery, Prompting White House Anger

As discussed in our morning wrap, US equity futures are dipping lower as bond yields in the US continue to move higher as crude continues to surge and is up another 2% on growing fears of middle-eastern escalation after a senior Iranian commander was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Syria yesterday, with Iran immediately vowing revenge, and as Ukraine once again struck oil infrastructure targets deep inside Russia, overnight hitting Russia’s 3rd largest refinery, ~800 miles from the front lines.

As OilPrice details, Ukrainian drones hit the primary refining unit of Russia’s third-largest refinery southeast of Moscow more than 800 miles from the front line, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Ukraine keeps striking Russian oil assets despite the Biden admin’s unequivocal demands for a hard stop, suggesting that diplomatic fallout is now imminent.

The Taneco refinery of Russian company Tatneft in Tatarstan, an industrialized region southeast of Moscow, was attacked by Ukrainian drones in the latest such attack from Ukraine on Russian refining infrastructure.

The refinery has a capacity to process 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude. Its primary refining unit, with a capacity to process about 155,000 bpd, was hit in Tuesday’s attack, according to pictures seen by Reuters. The unit caught fire, which was swiftly extinguished, Russian media report.

They also quote Ramil Mullin, the mayor of the city of Nizhnekamsk, where the refinery is located, as saying that there have been no injured people in the attack.

“There are no injuries or serious damage,” Mullin wrote on Telegram. “The technological process of the enterprise has not been disrupted,” the mayor added.

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