Tag: perpetual war

Macron urges Kiev to be realistic as French-trained Ukrainian soldiers desert

Ukraine must have “realistic” discussions on territorial issues, French President Emmanuel Macron said on January 6. According to him, the solution to the situation in Ukraine will not be “simple and quick,” a bitter realization he likely came to after it was revealed that French-trained Ukrainian troops were deserting the battlefield en masse, leaving the Kiev regime no chance of gaining the initiative.

“The Ukrainians need to hold a realistic discussion on the territorial questions and only they can do that, and the Europeans are counting on building security guarantees that will be their responsibility,” the French president said.

However, the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict should not happen without the participation of Kiev, just as the issue of ensuring European security should not be resolved without the participation of Europe itself, according to Macron.

At the same time, Macron shifted responsibility to Washington to “convince Russia” to come to the negotiating table to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.

Keep reading

US Always Knew NATO Expansion Led to War

The present severed from the past is easily misunderstood. In discussions of the Russia-Ukraine war, not enough is made of the historical facts that, at the end of the Cold War, the newly independent Ukraine promised not to join NATO, and NATO promised not to expand to Ukraine.

Not enough is made of the fact that Article IX  of the 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine, “External and Internal Security,” says that Ukraine “solemnly declares its intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs….” That promise was later enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution, which committed Ukraine to neutrality and prohibited it from joining any military alliance: that included NATO.

Nor is enough made of the fact that in 1990 and 1991, the Bush administration gave assurances to Gorbachev – assurances that arguably reached the level of a deal – that NATO would not expand east of Germany, including to Ukraine.

But even less is made of what the Clinton administration later promised Yeltsin nor of what the U.S. already knew at the time of where plans of NATO expansion to Ukraine would lead.

Recently declassified documents clearly show that, between 1993 and 2000, the U.S. already knew that a cornered Boris Yeltsin was distraught about NATO expansion and about the West’s broken promise, that expansion to Ukraine was a red line, and that if Russia ever enforced that red line, the U.S. would respond forcefully.

Though Czechia, Hungary and Poland were invited to begin accession talks in 1997 and joined NATO in 1999, a secret October 1994 policy paper, written by National Security Advisor Anthony Lake and entitled “Moving Toward NATO Expansion,” makes it clear that the decision to expand NATO had already been made by that time. The paper explicitly keeps “the membership door open for Ukraine.”

Interestingly, though Russia is always publicly painted as a predatorial nation with imperial ambitions, a confidential 1993 cable states that most Eastern European states seek NATO membership “not [because they] feel militarily threatened by Russia” but because they believe “that NATO membership can help stave off the return of authoritarian forces” in their own countries. Though the cable makes the exception that Ukraine and the Baltic states may feel threatened by Russia.

Keep reading

Cost Of Navy’s Newest Arleigh Burke Destroyers Is Ballooning

The U.S. Navy’s Flight III Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class destroyers are facing cost increases and delays, jumping from an average of $2.1 billion per ship to $2.5 billion per hull, with even steeper cost increases coming in the future, according to a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. The report analyzes the Navy’s 2025 shipbuilding plan, which calls for a 390-battle force ship fleet by 2054, and includes nine more vessels than in last year’s plan. 

Beyond destroyers, the versatile workhorses of the Navy’s combat fleet, the CBO’s assessment notes cost hikes among other platforms, as well as systemic American shipbuilding industry shortfalls that could impede the service’s fleet size goal. All this long-term planning comes as the sea service races to prepare for a near-term war with China if Beijing invades Taiwan in the coming years. These destroyers and their anti-air, anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare capabilities would be crucial to such a future fight.

The Navy currently has 74 destroyers of the Arleigh Burke class, in Flight I, Flight II, Flight IIA and Flight III variants. Two Flight IIAs and 18 Flight IIIs are already either under construction or their purchase has already been authorized by Congress. CBO’s assessment also found that, overall, the 23 Flight IIIs laid out in the 30-year shipbuilding plan will end up costing $2.7 billion on average. 

“The Navy stated in a briefing to CBO and [the Congressional Research Service] that the increase in its estimates of the cost of the DDG-51 Flight IIIs was attributable to shipbuilding inflation’s outpacing economywide inflation as well as declining shipyard performance,” the CBO report states. 

The report added that the destroyers currently under construction “have experienced substantial delays.” To date, just one Flight III destroyer, the USS Jack Lucas (DDG-125) has been commissioned, and the keel was laid for the second Flight III, the future USS Louis H. Wilson Jr. (DDG-126) in 2023. Inside Defense reported in June that other Flight III vessels could see six-to-25-month delivery delays. 

Keep reading

US Launches Airstrike in Somalia, Claims 10 al-Shabaab Fighters Killed

US Africa Command said on Tuesday that its forces launched an airstrike in southern Somalia on December 31, which it claimed killed 10 al-Shabaab militants.

The command said the strike was launched on a town about 35 kilometers southwest of the southern port city of Kismaayo. AFRICOM claimed that its “initial post-strike assessment” found no civilians were harmed, though the Pentagon is notorious for hiding civilian casualties in Somalia.

AFRICOM framed the attack as a “collective self-defense airstrike” since it was launched in support of the Mogadishu-based government’s forces fighting on the ground.

“In addition to the airstrike, US forces provided support to Somali forces by evacuating Soldiers that were attacked while fighting the terrorist group,” AFRICOM said.

Keep reading

The Possible Reasons Donald Trump’s Administration Is Recognizing Somaliland

In a move straight out of left field, the incoming Trump administration is slated to recognize Somaliland as an independent state, according to a report by Semafor.

Somaliland is a former British colony bordering Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Somalia that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 without receiving international recognition. Under international law, Somaliland is currently deemed an autonomous district of Somalia.

If media reports turn out to be true, why is the Trump administration moving to recognize Somaliland’s independence? It boils down to advancing Israeli interests.

Due to its proximity to the Arabian Peninsula, an independent Somaliland would give Israel and the United States a forward base of operations to counter plucky Houthi militants in the Red Sea.

After Israel responded to Hamas’ attack on Oct, 7, 2023 with a vicious military assault on Gaza, the Yemen-based Houthis joined the conflict by launching drones and missiles against Israeli and Western vessels traversing the Red Sea. The world faced the Houthis’ wrath in December 2023 when they announced their blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, where a substantial portion of global maritime cargo passes through.

Somaliland’s strategic location close to the Bab al-Mandab Strait makes it an important choke point on the grand chessboard, thus making it a valuable piece of geopolitical real estate the Israeli-American axis for the use to exploit.

Houthi attacks have bottled up the Red Sea, leading to major disruptions in international trade at a time when the world is still adjusting to supply-chain disruptions brought about during the COVID-19 era.

Keep reading

Preemptive Strikes On Iran Will Be A ‘Real Possibility’ Under Trump: Officials

Starting in December the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, warned that Iran is “dramatically” accelerating enrichment close to the roughly 90% level which is weapons-grade.

On Tuesday President Emmanuel Macron called Iran the main “strategic and security challenge” for France and Europe. “The acceleration of the nuclear program leads us nearly to the point of no return,” he told an annual conference of French ambassadors.

However, it remains anything but clear whether the Islamic Republic has actually decided to build a nuclear weapon, something recently (and surprisingly) acknowledged by the CIA.

Still, the constant daily headlines over Iran’s enrichment advances set things up for a collision course with the Trump administration after the Jan.20 inauguration.

According to a fresh report in Axios, the chances of Trump ordering a preemptive military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities are now higher than ever:

Iran’s recent nuclear advances give President-elect Trump a crucial decision to make in his first months in office: Try to neutralize the threat through negotiations and pressure, or order a military strike.

Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it’s now a de facto “nuclear threshold state.” Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.

Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the “maximum pressure” campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.

Axios further underscores that “Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran’s program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility.”

But it remains that US attacks on the Islamic Republic would only surely accelerate possible efforts to achieve a bomb. Much of the country’s nuclear infrastructure and technology is now likely underground, which would make it hard for any external power to destroy everything.

Though in prior years the Ayatollahs have condemned nuclear weapons as ‘unIslamic’ – if the Iranians perceive themselves under direct threat of annihilation, they would urgently feel the need to rapidly have a bomb.

Keep reading

Genocide: The New Normal

Joe Biden’s parting gift of $8 billion in weapons sales to the apartheid state of Israel acknowledges the gruesome reality of the genocide in Gaza. This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. This is a permanent, endless war designed not to destroy Hamas, or free Israeli hostages, but to eradicate, once and for all, Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. It is the final push to create a Greater Israel, which will include not only Gaza and the West Bank, but chunks of Lebanon and Syria. It is the culmination of the Zionist dream. And it will be paid for with rivers of blood — Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian.

Minister of Agriculture and Food Security of Israel Avi Dichter was probably offering conservative estimates when he said “I think that we are going to stay in Gaza for a long time. I think most people understand that [Israel] will be years in some kind of West Bank situation where you go in and out and maybe you remain along Netzarim [corridor].”

Mass extermination takes time. It is also expensive. Fortunately for Israel, its lobby in the U.S. has a stranglehold on Congress, our electoral process and the media narrative. Americans, although 61 percent support ending weapons shipments to Israel, will pay for it. And those that express dissent will be frog-marched into Zionist black holes where their voices are silenced and their careers jeopardized or destroyed. Donald Trump and the Republicans have an open disdain for democracy, but so do the Democrats and Joe Biden.

The U.S. provided $17.9 billion in military aid to Israel from October 2023 to October 2024, a substantial increase from the already $3.8 billion in military aid the U.S. gives Israel annually. This is a record for a single year. The State Department has informed Congress that it intends to approve another $8 billion in purchases of U.S.-made arms by Israel. This will provide Israel with more GPS guidance systems for bombs, more artillery shells, more missiles for fighter jets and helicopters, and more bombs, including 2,800 unguided MK-84 bombs, which Israel has a habit of dropping on densely packed tent encampments in Gaza. The pressure wave from the 2,000-pound MK-84 pulverizes buildings and exterminates life within a 400-yard radius. The blast, which ruptures lungs, rips apart limbs and bursts sinus cavities up to hundreds of yards away, leaves behind a 50-foot-wide and 36-foot-deep crater. Israel appears to have used this bomb to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, in Beirut on September 27, 2024.

Keep reading

It Begins: China Cuts Undersea Internet Cables to Taiwan

In September, a group of journalists (including me) were hosted by Taiwanese national security experts to discuss the developing crisis of Chinese aggression toward Taiwan.

The portion of the week-long visit at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the Taiwanese Defense and Security Think Tank akin to MITRE, Rand, or The Aerospace Corporation, contained an urgent and compelling message.

“We will be quarantined within six months and the first step of the operation will be China cutting our undersea cables to interrupt our communications with the world” was what Senior research fellows at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, Drs. Tzu-Yun Su, Shan-son Kung, and Charles C.J. Wang, shared.  Their observations were prescient because that has now happened.

Keep reading

Biden to Rush Final ‘Substantial’ Weapons Transfer to Ukraine

Before President Joe Biden exits the White House later this month, he is planning a massive final aid package for Ukraine. The Pentagon will attempt to rush the weapons to Kiev before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

Two defense officials said the new package would be announced on Thursday during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at an American military base in Germany, the Associated Press reported. The sources added that the weapons will come directly from US military stockpiles, and will be fast-tracked to Ukraine before Trump’s second term begins in less than two weeks.

The rush to provide Kiev with a “substantial” arms shipment before Trump returns to power appears aimed at undermining the president-elect’s stated goal of bringing the war in Ukraine to an end.

Since the American people voted for Trump to be the next president, the current administration has significantly escalated support for Kiev, even allowing Ukrainian forces to use long-range American missiles against targets inside Russia. Biden has also signed off on billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine since the war kicked off in early 2022.

The sources did not tell the AP how large the final package would be, though there is about $4 billion in congressionally authorized funding for Ukraine. The officials indicated that the Trump administration will have “more than a couple billion” in funding to send weapons to Ukraine.

While Trump pledged to bring the war to a close on the campaign trail, some incoming officials have stated that he intends to continue the arms shipments once he returns to power.

Since the start of the war, Washington has approved over $180 billion in aid to Ukraine; however, Kiev insists it has received only a fraction of that sum.

Keep reading