Overnight Israeli Strike In Syria So Large It Caused Earthquake

Days ago Israel began warning that it will use large bunker buster munitions to begin destroying the former Syrian Army’s underground missile and weapons storehouses. 

This has begun in the overnight hours, with Israeli warplanes pummeling air defense systems and ammunition depots in Damascus and the coastal city of Tartous, near where a Russian naval base is located. The strike on Tartous resulted in the single biggest explosion seen in Syria in years, unleashing a fireball and mushroom cloud so large it led to quick speculation it could have been a tactical nuke (which widespread reports are denying).

The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that Israeli warplanes hit air defense units and “surface-to-surface missile depots” as part of a bid to degrade and disable Syria’s military capability. SOHR also called it the “the heaviest strikes” on the region in over a decade.

The Telegraph wrote that “A 3.1 magnitude tremor was reported by the Geographic Survey of Israel’s seismology department at 11.49pm on Sunday night in the region of the bombings.”

“The explosions in Tartous were extremely loud,” Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from inside the country, additionally described. “Some experts are saying that might probably mean it was a chemical weapons production house.”

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Ukraine and Syria, A Western Plan Goes Awry

Let’s start with the situation in Ukraine. There is a growing atmosphere of desperation and panic among Western leaders as they watch Ukraine’s military collapse along the entire front and cast about for a strategy to stave off Ukraine’s defeat. But there is no viable solution. Russian military operations that are closing in on the formerly critical logistics center of Pokrovsk is emblematic of the dire situation confronting the Ukrainians:

The fall of Pokrovsk (Ukrainian name for Krasnoarmeysk – Ed.) under the onslaught of Russian troops will be the biggest setback for Ukraine in recent months and will make it more difficult for Ukraine to overcome difficulties, in while Russian troops apply serious pressure,” CNN reports

Ukrainian soldiers are being depleted at a steady and growing rate — more than 12,000 were killed in the last week alone. Ukrainian demographics provide no viable solution for producing men capable of fighting and replacing those lost.

Simplicius, citing a recent BBC report, describes the dilemma:

The problem is, a new BBC piece laid out a devastating data point: that Ukraine actually has very few under-25s due to the fact that the 90s saw a sharp decrease in birthrates. We’ve covered this before here, but essentially it means the cohort of males born from the mid to late 90s onward is very small compared to the older groups.

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US In ‘Direct Contact’ With Designated Terror Group HTS, Blinken Admits

The US has made “direct contact” with the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani which now holds Damascus and most major Syrian cities in the wake of Assad’s fall.

“We’ve been in contact with HTS and with other parties,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said following talks with Arab diplomats in Aqaba, Jordan.

This is the first official acknowledgement that the Biden administration is interacting with HTS, which has long been an officially US-designated terror organization, as it originated as Syrian al-Qaeda. Jolani also was once the personal envoy of ISIS terror leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

NBC News has underscored, “The U.S. designates HTS a terrorist organization, making it legally impossible to work with the group, but contact underscores ongoing efforts to change that designation as the U.S. and its allies look to support Syria’s transition from Assad rule.”

A statement from Blinken’s meetings in Aqaba and signed by representatives of the US, EU, Turkey and several Arab countries called for a “a more hopeful, secure and peaceful future”. It urged the protection of women and all ethnic and religious minorities, and for the preventing of “the reemergence of all terrorist groups.”

Also, Jordan’s foreign minister stressed that regional powers don’t want to see post-Assad Syria “descend into chaos”. Given that it remains formally listed as a terror group, HTS was not represented in the Jordan meeting.

The EU has also listed HTS as a terror group. Jolani still has a $10 million bounty on his head. Ironically he has been seen openly at well-known areas of Damascus, and the US could target him if it wanted to – but is clearly not.

“As we see Syria move in that direction and, in a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned process, take these steps, we in turn will look at various sanctions and other measures that we’ve taken and respond in kind,” Blinken said from Aqaba.

Blinken affirmed the US position on Syria has been “communicated” to the new HTS leaders. Ironically, this comes after years of the US refusing to engage diplomatically with Bashar al-Assad, who was a secular ruler.

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Russia advances across multiple fronts, Kyiv reports 214 battles

Battles are raging across the front in Ukraine, with heavy fighting reported in 214 locations, according to the evening situation report of the General Staff in Kyiv, with battles focused in the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhova in Donbass. There, Russian forces have made major territorial gains in recent days due to mass attacks.

“The situation there is and remains serious,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In the city of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces are reportedly encircled at some locations, in some cases involving hundreds of men. However, in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian forces are still lodged, Ukraine is reporting heavy losses of North Korean soldiers for the first time.

A number of pro-Ukrainian accounts published footage of what they say are the bodies of North Korean soldiers covered in snow in a long row to X. The accounts claim North Koreans soldiers gathered the bodies of comrades at the front after heavy fighting.

It is currently not possible to verify those claims.

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Russian Forces Destroy More US Patriot Launchers & Advance Closer To Pokrovsk

Amid the continued rapid advance of Russian forces in Ukraine’s east, and with the Donetsk villages of Vesely Gai and Pushkino (15km south of Pokrovsk) having been captured, Russia is also going after US-made Patriot batteries.

“Russian forces have destroyed four Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers provided to Ukraine by Western nations,” the Defense Ministry announced Saturday.

The statement said that air force jets along with with drones and artillery groups, “destroyed a combat control vehicle, an AN/MPQ-65 radar station and four launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system made in the US.”

Zelensky has pleaded with the West to hand Ukraine at least 25 Patriot batteries, and some European countries have recently donated theirs to Ukrainian forces.

This isn’t the first time that Russia has taken out Patriots. Back in October the defense ministry said its forces struck “two Patriot launcher stations made in the US” along with a control station and radar set part of the Patriot defensive network.

At that time a Ukrainian member of parliament had revealed that at least one Patriot battery was damaged in the October attack, but Kiev typically doesn’t comment on the extent of damage to its Western-supplied weapons systems.

Early last summer the Biden administration took the drastic step of pausing all Patriot deliveries to allies, instead announcing that they would be redirected to Ukraine.

“We’re going to reprioritize the deliveries of these exports so that those missiles rolling off the production line will now be provided to Ukraine,” Biden said at the time, with these first shipments having rolled out by late summer and into fall.

Patriot missile batteries have also been sent to to Ukraine from US bases of operations in neighboring Poland. All of this has been controversial as it impacts Europe’s home defense.

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NATO Head Says “Wartime Mindset” Needed; Redirect “Pensions, Health, Social Security” To Military Spending

Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who was this year selected as the Secretary General of NATO, has stated that Europeans need to “shift to a wartime mindset” and that military spending must be increased, likely at the expense of things like health care.

Rutte made the remarks at, ironically, a meeting of The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Brussels, declaring that Russia is trying to “crush our freedom and way of life.”

“Hostile actions against Allied countries are real and accelerating… These attacks are not just isolated incidents. They are the result of a coordinated campaign to destabilise our societies and discourage us from supporting Ukraine,” he added.

Rutte further asserted that Russia is using unconventional “hybrid warfare” attacks against Europe, circumventing NATO’s traditional defence and bringing “the front line to our front doors. Even into our homes”.

“Ukrainians are fighting against Russian swarms of drones. That’s what we need to be prepared for”, Rutte told the conference.

“I know spending more on defence means spending less on other priorities. But it is only a little less,” he continued, adding that “On average, European countries easily spend up to a quarter of their national income on pensions, health and social security systems.”

“We need a small fraction of that money to make our defences much stronger, and to preserve our way of life,” he proclaimed, reasoning that “freedom does not come for free.”

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Trading Iran for Al-Qaeda

In a reversal of the old proverb “Better the devil you know,” the U.S. and its partners in the Political West have embraced the devil they don’t. In Syria, they have traded Iran for al-Qaeda.

When Bashar al-Assad fell, many of his international partners suffered injuries. But none was hurt so badly as Iran. Unable to compete militarily with its far better armed enemies, Iran relied on a series of regional proxies. That front line of defense and deterrence has now been dismantled.

If Hezbollah was the heart of the proxy system, Syria was the logistical bridge between Iran and Lebanon upon which it depended. The effectiveness of Hezbollah was contingent upon the security of Syria. Syria was the bridge over which Iranian arms flowed to Lebanon. That bridge has now been broken.

Iran relied heavily on military bases and missile factories in Syria that have now all been lost. They have been lost both politically and physically. They have been lost politically because the new rulers of Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have sworn enmity to Iran. In his victory speech, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani said that Assad had made Syria “a playground for Iranian ambitions.” No sooner had Damascus been captured than the Iranian embassy was stormed by Syrian rebels. Al-Jolani, has said, “We are open to friendship with everyone in the region – including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran.”

They have been lost physically because, now with no air defenses at all, hundreds of air strikes have eliminated virtually all the military structures and weapons in Syria to ensure a toothless new regime. Israel has warned that “If the new regime in Syria allows Iran to re-establish itself, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price.”

Asaad was a was an ineffective and brutal dictator. In the end, he fell, in large part, because he lost the support of his military and his people. The Syrian Army was not willing to die to save Asaad. But Asaad has been traded for al-Qaeda.

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Airwars Finds Israel Killed Over 5,000 Civilians in Gaza in October 2023

The monitoring group Airwars released a new report on Thursday that found Israeli forces killed a minimum of 5,139 civilians during the first 25 days of its bombing campaign in Gaza starting on October 7, 2023.

Airwars examined 606 incidents of civilian harm and found that only 32-60 militants were killed in those same strikes. Using the higher estimate of 60 militant deaths, the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in the 606 incidents is about 85:1. Using the lower estimate of 32 brings the ratio to about 160:1.

Airwars said the scale of civilian harm was incomparable to any other 21st-century conflict and that the number of civilians killed in the first 25 days was “nearly four times more civilians reported killed in a single month than in any conflict Airwars has documented since it was established in 2014.”

The report detailed the huge number of children killed in Gaza during the first 25 days. “Airwars recorded a minimum of 1,900 children killed by Israeli military action in Gaza. This is nearly seven times higher than even the most deadly month for children previously recorded by Airwars,” the report reads.

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What’s Really Behind Israel’s “Shock & Awe” Campaign In Syria?

A confluence of interests explains its actions, but these same actions also have some unintended consequences.

Israel carried out one of the largest attack operations in its history after launching nearly 500 strikes in post-Assad Syria, which has just been taken over by a group of “rebels” led by the terrorist-designated and Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Al Qaeda in Syria. The goal is to create a “sterile defense zone”, to which end the IDF broached the Golan Heights buffer zone and advanced along the Syrian-Lebanese border, ending up just kilometers away from Damascus.

The operation is ongoing and it’s possible that Israel will push further, whether deeper into Syria and/or perhaps flanking Lebanon to reinvade Hezbollah from behind the defense lines that it built. It also can’t be ruled out that Israel will expand its annexed portion of the Golan Heights to include Syria’s portion and even areas beyond. Complementarily, Israel could arm nearby Druze to carve out a client state in southern Syria, even if such never declares independence. All of this advances the “Greater Israel” plan.

Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia condemned “the continuing aggression of Israel against Syria”, though the argument can be made that Israel’s “demilitarization” of post-Assad Syria prevents strategic Soviet- and Russian-era weaponry from being sent to Turkiye and onward to Ukraine. The “rebels” and terrorists can’t operate them without extensive training anyway so they might have passed them along to their Western patrons as payment for their support if they weren’t destroyed.

Their loss of this equipment, and the possibility that former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) who were trained to operate such could be allowed to join the new armed forces as part of the ongoing “nation-rebuilding” efforts, interestingly creates a military-technical opportunity for Russia. TASS reported on what Ibragim Ibragimov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti earlier this week.

In his view, “I don’t exclude that a new format of military-technical cooperation will appear soon and that Russian military instructors will play a role in establishing a new Syrian army.” It might be this possible opportunity that accounts for publicly financed Russian media’s restrained response to the Syrian regime change that was analyzed here. The explanation is that Russia might want to replace these wares, which the new ruling arrangement needs, so it’s mutually beneficial to remain cordial for now.

Therefore, it could turn out that Israel’s “demilitarization” of post-Assad Syria inadvertently serves to perpetuate Russia’s military presence, though other unrelated developments could still occur to ensure its phased but dignified withdrawal like some observers expect might be inevitable. It’s also interesting to wonder why Israel waited until now to destroy all of Syria’s strategic weaponry and didn’t do so earlier. The answer appears to be that Israel didn’t feel as threatened by Assad as it does by HTS.

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Commentary on Ukraine & Syria & Big Picture

Today’s Simplicius article focused on Zelensky’s dilemma to lower the draft age to satisfy the blood-hungry Outlaw US Empire politicos who demand such an act in exchange for more weapons that don’t work, thus making clearer than ever their policy of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. And then there’s the fact that Europe will be forced to pay for its own defense which is one of the main causes for the political chaos we’re seeing. Here’s my comment:

What we haven’t seen is mass kidnaping of people in far western Ukraine for military servitude, which is also where the bulk of Ukraine’s remaining economy resides. However, as I’ve commented here before, the best Ukie soldiers are now deployed in the major cities that are already or soon to come under attack. Outlying areas can thus be rapidly advanced over since what troops are there lack will and means–a company holding a village is reduced to a platoon or two that then retreats to the next village to augment the company that’s there, and the situation gets repeated over and over. This is seen a lot, which enables Russia to allow rather large flank areas thinly defended for long periods. The methodical advancement in Toretsk and Chasov Yar suggest Russian taking few casualties while almost all Ukie resistance is KIA’d via bombardment. A slow-moving Pac Man gobbling up everything is an a-visual analog to what’s happening on the ground. And the Russian advance seems slow because the high frequency of rotation, which keeps down casualties–fresh, warm, alert troops fight better and safer as they don’t need to take big risks.

Politically, EU/NATO is proving to all that it’s a liberal totalitarian entity as Rutte demanded all EU/NATO states give up social spending to support the war. Macron went to Poland because he has no government in France. The majority of Europeans have no will nor reason to fight Russia–it’s only those bribed by the Outlaw US Empire or EU/NATO freaks who insist. Many are thinking that they didn’t get freed from Soviet Colonialism to become serfs to US Colonialism. And we haven’t even entered the deeper half of Winter yet. Richard Wolff said it well today that Europeans are being forced to do something they don’t want to do and enter a future very few want, and the only way to avoid both is to revolt.

Syria is and will remain a tragedy for an unknown amount of time. Pepe Escobar wrote a very dark article on the situation, which also explains why Assad was never able to reconstitute the Syria that existed before 2010—the vast multitude of factions most of which could easily be bought and owned to be used as proxies. Nothing like Hezbollah or IRG existed in Syria that could form the power core for the political class. Politically, the situation was similar to Lebanon but much worse factions-wise: There’ were never enough unifiers and still aren’t. And for the ordinary apolitical people, it’s either go along to get along or become a refugee—neither of which will be easy to do. And as Escobar notes, the Zionist advance into Syria exposes Hezbollah’s left flank, which it probably never considered needed extensive defenses; now it does. More than ever the economic siege on the Genocidalists needs to be kept and escalated. That Hamas congratulated HTS is significant, but to what degree remains unknown.

Many interesting points were again made by the Hudson/Wolff duo on Nima’s show this morning that’s linked to above. One item I caught while looking for news was Medvedev’s visit to China for talks with Xi using his position as head of the United Russia party instead of his Security Council position. IMO, the ruse didn’t fool anyone as Putin has a very heavy domestic calendar, more of which will be posted later. Today he was very busy presenting state awards. One of the issued discussed by Hudson was should BRICS become a military alliance to counter NATO? Now, both Russia and China have made great efforts to note that neither the SCO or BRICS is or intends to become a military alliance. SCO already has a very potent anti-terrorism program—and we know who the #1 terrorist is—which is ready to confront the Outlaw US Empire’s Terrorist Foreign Legion. I agree that the only real power projection ability remaining for the Empire is its Terrorists, thus BRICS and the Global Majority only need to prepare themselves to combat that, not full-scale military operations. Having missiles capable of keeping the USN at bay as Ansarallah has shown ought to be enough for most nations. That leaves far more capital available for development.

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