Since the 2020 campaign, President Joe Biden has emphasized that America seeks “competition rather than conflict” with China. In the 2023 State of the Union address, amid tensions with the Chinese government over a spy balloon that floated through American airspace, he returned to the notion, saying his administration was willing to “work with China where it can advance American interests” while also bragging the U.S. was in “the strongest position in decades to compete” with the country.
That message of productive, if a bit unfriendly, economic competition is increasingly at odds with the aggressive trade policies Biden is pursuing behind the scenes. Indeed, it’s at odds with what prominent members of the administration, including the secretary of the treasury and the White House’s top national security adviser, are now openly admitting in public speeches: The United States is escalating its trade war with China, and it is doing so by targeting the free movement of goods and money across the globe in new ways.
“Technology export controls can be more than just a preventative tool,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told a small crowd gathered at the Capital Hilton, just blocks from the White House, in a speech delivered last September. “If implemented in a way that is robust, durable, and comprehensive, they can be a new strategic asset in the U.S. and allied toolkit to impose costs on adversaries, and even over time degrade their battlefield capabilities.”
Sullivan said the theory had already been put to the test once. After Russia rolled tanks and troops into Ukraine in early 2022, the United States responded with financial sanctions aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies. It also imposed severe export controls meant to hobble Russia’s industrial and military might. In Sullivan’s telling, this represented “the most stringent technology restrictions ever imposed on a major economy.”
“Those measures have inflicted tremendous costs,” Sullivan continued, “forcing Russia to use chips from dishwashers in its military equipment.”
The “adversaries” that could be targeted with that “new strategic asset” would not be limited to those that had invaded their neighbors. For Sullivan, the apparent success of the export restrictions targeting Russia meant we might reshape how America conducts foreign policy, particularly with regard to China. America should abandon the idea that it must only maintain a relative lead over China in the development of key technologies, he said. Instead, the tools and tactics of an international trade war could be used as an economic complement to America’s military arsenal—one that could effectively serve as an opening salvo in a real war.
Sullivan was speaking at a gathering of the Special Competitive Studies Project, a joint venture of tech and national security experts funded by a private foundation created by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Four days before the summit, the group published a lengthy report, co-authored by Schmidt and Robert Work, a deputy defense secretary under both President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump. The report crystallized many bipartisan worries about how China’s technological advances might factor into a future war, and its conclusions mirrored Sullivan’s: “Warfare will be waged with and against industrial and financial power and pit innovation ecosystems against each other.”
What both Sullivan and the report describe could be called a total trade war: a conflict where the exchange of goods and money across borders is viewed through a military lens.
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