Treasury Targets Iran’s Oil Network In New Sanctions As Trump Stuns By Talking Deal

President Donald Trump has been notoriously hawkish on Iran, as have some of his top national security officials, which is why it was surprising and refreshing for his rhetoric to take a different track in Wednesday statements. Responding to reports that the US and Israel are preparing scenarios to attack Iran and its nuclear sites, Trump stated Wednesday that these reports are “greatly exaggerated” and said that making a deal would be preferable instead.

“I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper. We should start working on it immediately, and have a big Middle East Celebration when it is signed and completed. God Bless the Middle East!” Trump added.

During his first administration, Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, which had been implemented during the Obama administration, and involved the other P5+1 countries of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, as well as the European Union.

He also dropped a surprise bombshell upon signing the new executive order to reimpose “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic, though it’s been woefully underreported in the media: 

“There are many people at the top ranks of Iran that do not want to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said in the Oval Office.

Still, Trump claimed when he signed it that he was “unhappy” to do it – perhaps revealing it as leverage and part of his big stick approach which can induce a better deal down the road.

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Trump Warns He Left Instructions To Destroy Iran If He Is Assassinated

It’s been a longtime conservative media and Republican talking point that Tehran is looking for opportunities to take out President Donald Trump, in retaliation for his ordering the drone killing of IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani on January 3, 2020 outside Baghdad International Airport during his first administration.

President Trump has this week warned that he has left instructions ordering the destruction of the Islamic Republic in the event he is assassinated by Iranian agents.

The unexpected and somewhat unprecedented contingency, which we would expect at the very least would require the approval of Congress, was issued Tuesday while Trump signed an executive order in the Oval Office restoring “maximum pressure” to Iran. Trump hailed the action as “very tough on Iran”.

That’s when he was questioned by reporters over Iran and its proxies threatening to assassinate him, to which the commander-in-chief responded:

“They haven’t done that and that would be a terrible thing for them to do. Not because of me— if they did that, they would be obliterated. That would be the end. I’ve left instructions, if they do it, they get obliterated, there won’t be anything left. And, they shouldn’t be able to do it.”

He laid blame in part on the prior Biden administration for being weak on Iran, and allowing alleged plots to fester without taking firm action. He soon after received Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.

“Biden should have said that but he never did, I don’t know why. Lack of intelligence perhaps but he never said it. If that happens to a leader or close to a leader— frankly, if you had other people involved also—you would call for total obliteration of a state that did it. That would include Iran,” Trump said.

Back in September of last year, Trump said at an event in North Carolina: “As you know, there have been two assassination attempts on my life that we know of, and they may or may not involve – but possibly do – Iran.”

He also wrote on X at the time, “Big threats on my life by Iran. The entire US Military is watching and waiting. Moves were already made by Iran that didn’t work out, but they will try again. Not a good situation for anyone. I am surrounded by more men, guns, and weapons than I have ever seen before.”

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Russia, Iran, and the Caucasian Chalk Circle

It was only a few weeks ago that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met to ink the historic Russo-Iranian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.  The pact itself was a milestone, so much so that commentators around the world are still widely discussing its implications.  Perhaps one of the most striking elements of the treaty is the major focus on Eurasia.  Although Western analysts tend to focus on Russo-Iranian cooperation in the Middle East, the treaty indicates that Eurasia is of even more immediate geopolitical significance to both Moscow and Tehran.  To historians and long-time observers of Iran and Russia, this is hardly a surprise.  The Eurasian region – that is, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Caspian Sea – forms an integral part of the common Russo-Iranian neighborhood.

For the security of both countries, the Caucasus region in particular is especially critical. Defined by its protective mountainous geography and central location between the Black and Caspian seas, the area has long played a major role in the security architecture of both Russia and Iran.  This major geostrategic significance has certainly not been lost on the current Russian leadership, and President Putin in particular.  From the defeat of Islamist terrorists in Chechnya to the success of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the Caucasus has always held an especially important place in Moscow’s geopolitical outlook. Sochi in particular has served as a standard for Russian revival following the freefall of the Yeltsin years.  The region is no less significant to Iran and has always served as a critical security and commercial link for successive Iranian leaders, dating back to the age of Cyrus the Great and his Achaemenid Empire. In this regard, President Pezeshkian’s native Iranian Azerbaijan played a particularly vital role in facilitating Iran’s historic connections with the Caucasus, linking the area to the great trade routes of the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the Silk Road.

Thus, it is hardly a surprise that the Caucasus continues to be a major strategic priority for both Moscow and Tehran.  For the Kremlin, its importance is second only to Ukraine and has been amplified at a time when Western political leaders have called for a “strategic defeat” of Russia.  Especially important for both Tehran and Moscow are the three independent former Soviet republics of the South Caucasus, or Transcaucasia – Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. These countries have been of particular interest to war hawks, neoconservative intellectuals, and big energy interests in Washington and London for decades. All of these groups hold an especially strong desire to realize a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The aim is to use the Caucasus as a bridgehead to access the energy riches of post-Soviet Central Asia, as a means of “containing” Russia, Iran, and ultimately, China.  Israel – and especially the hard-right of the Israeli political elite – has likewise long held interests in the region, with an eye toward using post-Soviet Azerbaijan as an instrument against Iran’s territorial integrity.  Baku regularly receives generous military aid from Tel Aviv in exchange for sending oil to Israel, all while keeping conspicuously mum on the atrocities against Palestinian civilians in Gaza.  Azerbaijan’s closest ally, Turkey, is another major player interested in weakening Russian and Iranian influence in Caucasia. In fact, NATO has delegated to Ankara the task of projecting Western influence into the region, given that Turkey is the one alliance member in closest proximity to the Caucasus.  Ankara pursues this task alongside its own interests, which nevertheless correspond with those of NATO.

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Trump To Restore ‘Max Pressure’ On Iran With EO Aimed At Driving Its ‘Oil Exports To Zero’

It’s long been anticipated and expected, but now it’s happening within just the first couple weeks of the new administration alongside Trump’s threat to strangle the Russian economy by orchestrating a global oil price collapse (perhaps a likely bluff meant to gain leverage at the negotiating table, however)…

President Donald Trump will sign executive order on Tuesday restoring “maximum pressure” on Iran, Reuters is reporting, citing a US official. This is with the intended aim of thwarting all paths of the Islamic Republic toward a nuclear weapon.

The US official also cited Iran’s “malign influence” in the Mideast region and de facto state of war with Israel, including support for regional militants who attack Israeli territory and interests.

“The official told Reuters that Trump’s directive orders the US Treasury Secretary to impose ‘maximum economic pressure’ on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on those violating existing sanctions. The directive is aimed at denying Iran ‘all paths to a nuclear weapon’ and countering ‘Iran’s malign influence’ according to the official.”

Crucially, there’s this line in the breaking Reuters report:

The US Secretary of State will modify or rescind existing sanctions waivers and cooperate with the treasury to implement a campaign “aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero,” the official added.

Trump famously unilaterally withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal on May 8, 2018 – which had initially been implemented under Obama in 2015.

WTI bounced about $2.00 in very short order on the fresh Reuters headline and newswires…

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Iran War Hawks Getting Wrecked In Trump Personnel Fight

A major whisper campaign is underway, led by neoconservatives in Washington panicked at President Donald Trump’s elevation of a string of foreign policy advisers who have spoken out against war with Iran. The first whack to the wounded war-hawk wing came when Mike Pompeo was blocked from a position in the White House, followed yesterday by the stripping of his security detail. That followed similar snubs to John Bolton and Iran hawk Brian Hook, both of which lost their security and have been kept out of the administration.

Hook’s firing was a comical display of Trumpian humiliation. Trump, on Truth Social, said that his

Presidential Personnel Office is actively in the process of identifying and removing over a thousand Presidential Appointees from the previous Administration, who are not aligned with our vision to Make America Great Again.

Jose Andres from the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition, Mark Milley from the National Infrastructure Advisory Council, Brian Hook from the Wilson Center for Scholars, and Keisha Lance Bottoms from the President’s Export Council—YOU’RE FIRED!

What’s so amusing about Trump’s description of Hook as a member of the “previous Administration,” and his being lumped in with Democrats and a hated figure like Milley, is that Hook was named by Trump in November to chair the State Department transition. Anti-war Republicans vowed at the time to make sure he never got a job himself in the second Trump administration and sources tell me that Trump fired him after learning about his long record of criticizing Trump and his bellicose war rhetoric. Now he’s out, and is privately leading the rearguard fight against Trump’s nominees.

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Iranian Regime Sentences Artist to Death for Advocating Freedom and Insulting Muhammad

The Iranian regime has issued a death sentence against pop singer Amir Hossein Maghsoudloo, known professionally as Tataloo, for allegedly insulting the Prophet Muhammad.

This has sparked a wave of reactions both within and outside the country, highlighting the severity of Iran’s blasphemy laws.

Tataloo, whose fame has spread beyond Iran’s borders, has been a controversial figure in the underground music scene.

According to sources, the singer has been detained in Iran since his extradition from Turkey in December 2023.

He now faces a sentence that not only threatens his life but also underscores the tensions between artistic freedom and the strict interpretation of Islamic law in Iran.

Tataloo’s case is not an isolated incident.

The Islamic Republic is known for its harsh policies against expressions deemed offensive to religion. “The singer was sentenced to death for insulting the Prophet,” stated a report from Europa Press, emphasizing the gravity of the accusation and the penalty imposed.

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Iran and Russia’s Friendship Just Got a Lot Deeper

By abstaining from diplomacy and relying so heavily on isolating countries and the broad stroke of sanctions, the U.S. runs the risk of creating a community of isolated and sanctioned countries. A community of sanctioned countries negates the effect of sanctions. And a community of isolated countries creates the very multipolar world the U.S. is trying to push back.

In the past couple of years, Iran has fought back against isolation and sanctions by joining the Russian and Chinese led Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, two significant international organizations intended to balance American hegemony in a multipolar world.

On January 17, though, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between their two countries, bringing Iran and Russia into a closer partnership than ever before.

Article 2 of the treaty commits the two countries to rejecting unipolarity and pursuing multilateralism, while Article 14 specifically commits them to “deepen[ing] cooperation within the framework of regional organizations,” including the promise to “interact and coordinate positions in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.” In a press conference following the talks, Pezeshkian said that BRICS and the SCO are transforming the region and “represent new opportunities and potential for both countries to collaborate in the future.”

But the new strategic partnership is much more than a vague public announcement of Iran and Russia’s friendship. The detailed forty-seven article document is the product of months of intense diplomacy. The document brings the comprehensive partnership a historic new intensity. In his opening remarks at the press conference, Putin called the document “truly ground-breaking.” Dmitri Trenin, research professor at the Higher School of Economics, told me that Putin’s use of words like “breakthrough,” refer, above all, “to the very fact that the Moscow-Tehran relationship now has a treaty as a base.”

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Russia & Iran Sign 20-Year Defense, Energy Pact 3 Days Before Trump Inauguration

President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran on Friday signed a 20-year pact between their countries at the Kremlin, just three days before Trump’s inauguration.

Dubbed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, the Kremlin is hailing it as bringing relations with the Islamic Republic to a new level, enshrining the two countries’ status as strategic partners. Putin hailed the “real breakthrough, creating conditions for the stable and sustainable development of Russia, Iran and the entire region.”

Russian media has described it covers all spheres, including defense, counter-terrorism, energy, finance, transport, industry, agriculture, culture, science and engineering.

The allies are also working on linking their national payment systems: “According to the Russian leader, in 2024, the share of transactions in Russian rubles and Iranian rials exceeded 95% of all bilateral trade operations,” TASS noted.

Putin further said in a press conference with Pezeshkian, “Our countries firmly uphold the principles of the supremacy of international law, the sovereignty of states, non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.” As for Pezeshkian, he said the following:

“We witness a new chapter of strategic relations,” the Iranian president said, adding that the countries were set to expand trade ties and also boost the “level of security cooperation.”

The pact is heavily focused on defense and security cooperation. “It will confirm the parties’ desire for closer cooperation in the field of defense and interaction in the interests of peace and security at the regional and global levels,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had earlier stated.

Already, the two sides cooperate closely on drones. Russia has since the Ukraine war’s start been using Iran-produced ‘Shahed’ kamikaze drones against Ukrainian cities, and Iran has reportedly set up a major UAV production facility on Russian soil at Moscow’s invitation. 

Moscow and Tehran early last month lost a key Middle East ally upon the fall of Bashar al Assad, after Islamic insurgents rampaged across the country and the demoralized and underpaid Syrian Army quickly collapsed. Turkey was widely seen as supporting the insurgents with intelligence and equipment, and likely other NATO states played a background role as well.

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Former Israeli Military Officials Float Audacious Plan To Strike Iran in Final Days of Biden Presidency

Two prominent Israeli national security analysts have proposed that the Jewish state go it alone with major attack on Iran in the final days of Joe Biden’s presidency.

Kobi Michael and Gabi Siboni, both former senior Israeli military officials, argued in a policy paper published last month that only a series of airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear, military, economic, and government infrastructure can prevent the regime from rebuilding its regional terrorist network, which Israel has degraded over 15 months of war. Israel should start the attack just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, according to the analysts—thereby minimizing the risk of diplomatic retaliation by Biden and forcing the hand of the president-elect.

“With this attack, Israel will demonstrate to the United States … its absolute refusal to accept the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program and its unwillingness to risk Iran’s breakout to a bomb,” Michael and Siboni wrote for the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, a think tank in Jerusalem where they are researchers. “As several rounds of attacks on Iran will be required, [the subsequent rounds] will take place after Trump takes office and under a U.S. administration that is more sympathetic than Biden’s.”

Few Israeli politicians would contemplate such a move in public, and even in the think tank world, Michael and Siboni’s proposal stands out as audacious. But their paper, which has been discussed in Hebrew media, comes as Israeli leaders signal new willingness to go it alone against Iran if necessary.

When prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed for a strike on Iran’s nuclear program more than a decade ago, he was repeatedly blocked by his powerful security chiefs and criticized by his political rivals. Today, Israel’s security establishment has reportedly advocated such a strike, as have leading politicians across the Zionist political spectrum.

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Preemptive Strikes On Iran Will Be A ‘Real Possibility’ Under Trump: Officials

Starting in December the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, warned that Iran is “dramatically” accelerating enrichment close to the roughly 90% level which is weapons-grade.

On Tuesday President Emmanuel Macron called Iran the main “strategic and security challenge” for France and Europe. “The acceleration of the nuclear program leads us nearly to the point of no return,” he told an annual conference of French ambassadors.

However, it remains anything but clear whether the Islamic Republic has actually decided to build a nuclear weapon, something recently (and surprisingly) acknowledged by the CIA.

Still, the constant daily headlines over Iran’s enrichment advances set things up for a collision course with the Trump administration after the Jan.20 inauguration.

According to a fresh report in Axios, the chances of Trump ordering a preemptive military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities are now higher than ever:

Iran’s recent nuclear advances give President-elect Trump a crucial decision to make in his first months in office: Try to neutralize the threat through negotiations and pressure, or order a military strike.

Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it’s now a de facto “nuclear threshold state.” Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.

Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the “maximum pressure” campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.

Axios further underscores that “Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran’s program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility.”

But it remains that US attacks on the Islamic Republic would only surely accelerate possible efforts to achieve a bomb. Much of the country’s nuclear infrastructure and technology is now likely underground, which would make it hard for any external power to destroy everything.

Though in prior years the Ayatollahs have condemned nuclear weapons as ‘unIslamic’ – if the Iranians perceive themselves under direct threat of annihilation, they would urgently feel the need to rapidly have a bomb.

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