Tag: economy

16 U.S. Trucking Companies File For Bankruptcy In Less Than A Month As Diesel Prices Soar

Diesel prices have exploded over the past month, creating another major cost shock for an industry that was already operating on thin margins. The national average climbed from roughly $5.60 per gallon at the end of August to a record $6.53 in late September, an increase of about 17% in just a few weeks. Prices have eased slightly from that peak, but the EIA’s latest weekly reading still puts diesel at $6.38 per gallon, compared with $5.60 at the end of August.

Now the financial damage is beginning to show up. Sixteen American trucking companies have entered bankruptcy proceedings in less than a month, affecting more than 250 jobs, according to FreightWaves and the Independent. Eight filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, allowing them to continue operating while restructuring their debts, while seven entered Chapter 7 and are liquidating their assets and shutting down.

Among the larger companies seeking Chapter 11 protection are Xoco Transport and Globemaster. Neither specified the cause of its financial problems in federal court filings, and diesel is hardly the industry’s only problem. Carriers have also been grappling with rising labor, insurance, maintenance and regulatory costs, while seasonal slowdowns can leave them without enough revenue to absorb those increases.

But the sudden surge in fuel costs adds another layer of pressure because trucking companies have limited options when diesel jumps this quickly. They can absorb the expense and sacrifice margins, pass it through with higher freight rates and risk losing business, or cut workers and equipment. The latter can keep a company alive temporarily, but it also reduces shipping capacity and the amount of revenue the carrier can generate.

And for now, there is little reason to consider the diesel problem resolved. Prices remain near historic highs and are still heavily tied to the war with Iran and the resulting disruption to global energy supplies.

Even as crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have begun recovering, refined-product flows remain constrained, inventories have been depleted and damaged Middle Eastern refining infrastructure continues to limit supply. Until those disruptions ease materially, diesel remains another major transmission mechanism through which the Iran war is feeding directly into the U.S. economy.

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Why Even A Temporary Diesel Export Ban Is A Bad Idea

Energy analysts spent much of the past week laying out all the reasons why a presidential ban on exports of diesel fuel is a no good, terrible, very bad idea. As the Institute for Energy Research detailed on Thursday, such a ban would not only fail to lower diesel pump prices for any appreciable amount of time, it would also inevitably result in higher gasoline prices and supply shortages as refiners are forced to cut back runs because they have no outlet for the diesel volumes currently being exported to the global market. 

Late in the week, we saw the emergence of an alternative proposal from politicians and industry critics: A temporary ban of “only” 90 days. This, they claim, would have the benefit of helping Republican candidates in their mid-term election campaigns while also allowing refiners to see a clear light at the end of the tunnel.

As a siren song it all sounds lovely. But in the real world, it’s also nonsense.

Whether we like it or not, capital does not care if some farmers in Iowa, Nebraska and Texas might go under because diesel prices are too high. Capital does care about two hard factors: The anticipated rate of return on its investment, and the consistent application of U.S. laws and regulations. 

A 90-day pause might as well be a permanent ban where capital deployment is concerned. It would send the signal to investors that the government, even in a Republican presidency, might step in at any time to do major damage to your rates of return. 

Former President Joe Biden’s killing of the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office in 2021 did enormous harm to that second key factor. Biden and his autopen cancelled that long-term multi-billion-dollar project which was already under construction without siting a single violation of U.S. law or regulation. The developer — Trans-Canada, now TC Energy — had moved forward with its federal permits fully secured with the faith that no future administration would intervene to cancel the billions of dollars it had already invested by January 20, 2021. 

A Trump intervention into diesel markets would do similar harm. Perhaps even more given that it would send the signal to investors that they now cannot have faith in the consistent application of the law even in a Republican administration. 

The current crisis shines a spotlight on the folly inherent in half a century of federal regulations that have made it near-impossible to build new refineries in the United States. America needs additional refining capacity and fast to be able to restore the country’s level of energy security to pre-Iran Conflict levels. 

But here’s the thing: These are multi-billion-dollar projects which take years, often decades to execute. Convincing investors to consider pouring billions of capital dollars into such projects requires their confidence that U.S. law will be applied fairly and consistently across multiple presidents of both political parties. Biden’s Keystone XL cancellation made doing that much harder. 

Sure, there is a new greenfield refinery under construction at the Port of Brownsville, Texas today— but that project benefits from a big injection of capital by India’s Reliance Industries. A big question remains whether American investors will have the confidence to step up and invest in the series of new refining operations needed to keep more of America’s domestic production at home. 

Any ban on exports for any length of time implemented for transparently political reasons would almost certainly answer that question in the negative. America cannot afford for that to happen.

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The Easy Money Fairy Tale Is About To End…Violently

For the better part of the last couple years, I have wondered whether financial markets are permanently broken. Not simply overvalued or temporarily irrational, but actually broken at the mechanical level and permanently distorted. I’ve written about it.

The basic process that is supposed to make capitalism work goes like this. Capital flows toward good ole’ fashioned productive uses (like the George Foreman Grill™) and away from flashy hot-shit stupid ones (like the Apple Vision Pro). Good businesses eventually outperform bad ones. Fraud eventually gets exposed. Making money is the point of a business. Price is a rationing mechanism and is determined by free markets. This system appears to have been dead for the last 10 years, at least.

Nowadays, we function under a derivative of capitalism (hereinafter referred to as “crony capitalism snorting bath salts, operating under policies so disorganized they’d make a Jackson Pollock painting look like the blueprints for a nuclear reactor”) where trillions of dollars can be created overnight, governments and central banks focus obsessively on a handful of key numbers, and preserving the nominal value of stocks and other financial assets has become the priority.

Everything else in the economy is then forced to adjust accordingly, and if you don’t like it, or it causes the price of your Whopper Jr.™ to go to $57, f*ck you…that’s just how money works nowadays.

We’ve spent most of the last 20 years systematically removing consequences from the financial system. Rates went to zero and stayed there for years. The Fed expanded its balance sheet by trillions. Every major crisis was met with an intervention, liquidity facility, bailout or assurance that policymakers stood ready to keep the machine running. Capital was forced to become extraordinarily cheap, and investors eventually became conditioned to believe it would remain that way. We laughed off our country’s credit downgrades. Economists and analysts turned into total pussies and cowards, crumbling into bits every time the market sold off 5%. Financial projections have turned into Hunter Thompson-esque 3AM drug induced astral projections.

And we turned into the real life version of Idiocracy for markets.

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We Are at the Mercy of the Fed, Whose Leaders Believe that Printing Money Solves Every Other Problem

I’m sure that most of the discussions in the closed-door meetings at the Fed’s recent Jackson Hole Symposium centered on the problems of printability. They certainly won’t be part of the paper presentations or press conferences.

The US government has been spending like a teenager with an unlimited credit card that they don’t have to pay off since going off the gold standard.

The Fed doesn’t even have a monetary policy in any sense. It’s been playing games for more than a quarter century, really ever since 1971, and even earlier going back to its very beginning of the Fed. These games center on the problems of printability. The Fed prints as it pleases and it wants to please its masters.

Its mandate is not CPI inflation rate target or the Unemployment Rate target of the “natural rate of unemployment”—that is a tall tale to gain public acceptance and gain credibility for itself. They are like two warning buoys in a harbor, but not their real goals.

Their real mandate is also two-fold. It’s to serve the interests of the state, especially to facilitate budget deficits and the national debt and to serve the interests of the big banks.

The only role the working-class plays is a byproduct of the real mandates: if some families temporarily benefit from Fed activities, so be it. It especially has a political role to fool the voters around election times. That is why politicians are now so “concerned” with beef prices, diesel fuel prices, and mortgage interest rates. Their real concern is to get reelected and to stay in power.

That is where “printability” comes into play. With a central bank, the Fed, all the problems of government and society can seemingly be addressed with the Fed printing more money. New spending programs, new wars, new subsidies, welfare benefits, etc. are all made possible with a few keyboard entries on a computer at the New York Fed.

The price inflation only comes later as the money makes its way through the hands of the banks, the government, and to businesses that end up driving up resource costs. Eventually, in the end, higher prices emerge and, even later, higher wages. After that, unemployment and bankruptcy result and the cycle begins anew. The citizenry is none the wiser as few people figure out the Fed’s game as it once again “comes to the rescue!” with lower interest rates.

The biggest problem with printability is how it affects political behavior and social ideology. Do you live under a budget constraint or not? Without a budget constraint, people and politicians assume that government can solve all our problems at no cost and politicians (who are very short-term oriented) spend without constraint. They vote for everything. They go along with stupid wars and policies. They pass budgets with huge deficits. They go unconcerned with the national debt. Americans and their government are now completely dependent on keeping the monetary spigot opening ever wider.

This cycle is of a historically long duration thanks to the appearance of the covid situation and the Fed’s and the government’s $10 trillion bailout. Then, when CPI inflation skyrocketed and they had to cut back a little, they started through the back door. releasing their hoard of $2.5 trillion in Repurchase Agreements through the banks and the stock market took off.

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‘Survival Mode’ – Farmers Crushed As Trump’s War On Iran Sends Diesel Cost Soaring

As Donald Trump’s war on Iran nears the seven-month mark, the economic damage is reverberating all over the world, and all across the United States. Among the Americans who are feeling the most pain from a war their federal legislators never declared are the nation’s farmers, who are growing increasingly desperate under the weight of rising costs for diesel, fertilizer and equipment.

It’s a demographic that leans hard to the right, but now feels let down by Trump and others in Washington. “It’s his war that caused this, this war in Iran. We’re not winning that war. And many farmers feel like we shouldn’t be there,” farmer John Boyd, Jr told CNN. Trump says the war in Iran is necessary to prevent the country from building a nuclear weapon. However, going back to 2007 and up to the eve of the war, the US intelligence committee has repeatedly assessed that Iran was not building one. 

“I’ve done this 34 years. I have never worried and stressed like I have the last year,” North Carolina farmer Matt Bell told CBS News. “We’ve cut everything we can cut.” Trying every option he can think of to improve his cash flow, Bell has put off replacing equipment, produced some of his own fertilizer, and opened a pumpkin patch and hayride business for the fall. The rising costs come after a difficult period had already weakened his operation’s financial security. 

“The last several years in agriculture have been terrible, and we have just cut the fat anywhere we could. But we’re just getting to the point now there’s nothing left to cut. You cannot run without fuel. You cannot run without fertilizer. You have to have that,” Bell said. 

As a result of a major reduction in oil exports from the Persian Gulf, the nationwide average cost for a gallon of diesel hit $6.49 this week, up 75% from a year ago, according to the AAA. Lately, the price volatility has led Bell’s diesel distributors to offer price quotations that are only good for a matter of hours. He’d budgeted $35,000 for fuel in 2026, but blew past that number in August. “Every piece of equipment on this farm runs on diesel,” he emphasized. 

In an interview with Sky News, Texas cattle rancher Lynn Fleming said her August outlay for few was almost double what she’d paid in recent years. “Obviously the main [factor] is what we’re facing everyday with the Iranian situation,” Fleming said. Her husband, Robert, said he felt blindsided by the war. “We had no idea that he was going to pull the prank with the Strait of Hormuz. He didn’t tell us … he was going to go do the military maneuvers and try to control the oil supply over there. We had no warning of what was going to happen.” A major cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 campaign was his pledge to be a “peace president” who would refrain from starting any new wars.    

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As Gas Prices Soar, Congress Goes Home

Instead of six more weeks of winter, we will have at least six more weeks of war, brought to us by Secretary Hegseth and his boss, President Trump, with the help of Speaker Johnson who avoided a procedural vote, taking it upon himself to adjourn, under the Rule 1, Clause 13, of the House of Representatives.

Consider. The Administration, compelled by Israeli interests, has driven America into a war of choice against a nation that represented no threat to our country. The war against Iran is becoming more dangerous every day, more casualties, more expense, and more devastating economic and moral consequences.

On September 15, the House of Representatives expressed its constitutional will and voted 220–204 to direct the President to end American participation in the war against Iran.

This constitutional crisis extends beyond one resolution or one cabinet secretary. The House exists as an independent branch of government, with its own authority over war, appropriations and impeachment.

The Speaker, by preventing a recorded vote on the Hegseth Impeachment and sending members home, prevented the House from exercising one of its most consequential checks on executive power. The practical effect was to protect the Administration from an immediate confrontation with a chamber that had voted to end the war.

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America Is Making More Diesel Than It Has Since 2019. It Still Costs a Record $6.29.

The most useful number inside this week’s record diesel prices is not $6.29. It is $1.97 — the gap between a gallon of on-highway diesel and a gallon of regular gasoline. Sit with that one, because it is the whole story.

Diesel holds roughly 14% more energy per gallon than gasoline — 137,381 Btu against 120,166 Btu, using the Energy Information Administration’s own 2026 conversion figures. It currently costs 45.5% more to buy. Every argument ever made for paying extra for a compression-ignition engine was built on the first number. The pump is being priced off the second.

Record diesel prices are not, whatever your instinct says, a story about a crude oil shortage. The United States is on track to produce more crude this year than in any year in its history. American refiners are making more diesel than they have since 2019. The fuel set a nominal record anyway. Understanding why means looking past the barrel and at the machinery that cuts it apart.

The number that broke the record

The EIA’s weekly survey put the national average on-highway diesel price at $6.285 per gallon on Monday, September 14. The agency says that is the highest figure in nominal terms since the series began in 1994, and the highest in inflation-adjusted terms since 2022. We flagged the moment diesel first pushed past $6 earlier this month.

The velocity is the part that should worry people. Diesel climbed 31.8 cents in a single week. In the Lower Atlantic it jumped 49.1 cents in seven days. Year over year, diesel is up roughly 68%. Regular gasoline over the same twelve months is up roughly 36%. West Coast diesel averages $7.250 a gallon. California averages $8.039.

Two fuels, one barrel, wildly different trajectories. That divergence is the clue.

American refineries are already running flat out

Here is the fact that reframes everything. U.S. distillate production averaged 5.1 million barrels per day from January through August, the most since 2019, and refineries ran at 97% utilization in the week ending September 11. There is no idle capacity waiting to be switched on. The industry is not holding back. It is redlined.

What changed is where the diesel goes. Refining activity has fallen in Russia, China and the Middle East, leaving the rest of the world short of middle distillate and bidding for America’s. U.S. net distillate exports have sat near or above the 2021–2025 high since February. Inventories, which normally build through summer, went sideways instead. By September 11 they were 15.8 million barrels, or 13%, below the five-year seasonal average.

The United States is not running out of diesel. It is selling diesel to people willing to outbid you for it.

That shows up in the crack spread, the rough measure of what a refiner earns turning crude into product. The EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its 2026 distillate crack spread forecast to $1.57 a gallon, up 20.8% from the previous month’s estimate, and lifted the 2027 figure to $1.25. Refiners are not the villains of this story. They are unambiguously the beneficiaries.

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Bessent Tells Japan to Do What Washington Refuses to Do

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now pressuring Japan to rein in government spending and restore credibility with the bond market as Japanese yields surge. Reuters reports that Bessent confronted Japanese officials over what Washington sees as an inconsistent combination of aggressive fiscal spending and monetary policy, warning that instability in Japan’s enormous government bond market could spill directly into U.S. Treasuries. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 3%, reaching levels not seen since 1996, as investors increasingly demand greater compensation to finance one of the most indebted governments in the world.

Bessent understands the problem perfectly when he looks at Japan. Government cannot continue borrowing endlessly, suppress interest rates, manipulate its currency, and assume global capital will sit there forever accepting whatever return politicians decide to offer. Japan has spent decades experimenting with virtually every form of monetary manipulation imaginable. The Bank of Japan pushed rates below zero, bought enormous quantities of government bonds, controlled the yield curve, and expanded its balance sheet until it became one of the dominant holders of Japanese government debt. None of that eliminated the debt because it merely postponed the day when the market would again determine the price.

Japan’s government debt remains above 200% of GDP, and rising yields dramatically change the arithmetic. When rates were near zero, Tokyo could carry an enormous debt load because servicing costs remained artificially suppressed. Once yields rise, refinancing becomes progressively more expensive. The government then must issue still more debt to cover interest expenses, cut spending, raise taxes, or find new buyers willing to finance the entire operation.

What makes Bessent’s warning remarkable is that Washington is confronting the same fundamental problem. The United States has surpassed $40 trillion in federal debt, the Treasury must continuously refinance existing obligations while financing new deficits, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been testing levels around 5%. Bessent has simultaneously expanded Treasury buybacks in an effort officially aimed at improving liquidity while clearly recognizing the political and financial importance of preventing disorder in long-term government debt.

He is therefore telling Japan something Washington desperately needs to hear itself: the bond market eventually demands fiscal credibility. Bessent is especially concerned because Japan does not exist in some isolated financial universe. Japanese institutions are among the world’s largest foreign investors and major holders of U.S. assets, including Treasuries. When Japanese yields were virtually zero, enormous amounts of Japanese capital moved abroad searching for returns. If yields at home become sufficiently attractive, some of that capital has less reason to remain overseas. That is where Japan’s debt crisis can become America’s problem because capital can begin returning home precisely when Washington needs enormous amounts of foreign money to finance its own deficits.

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Bessent Says Rates Will Drop When Iran War Ends, Defends Trump On Media Ban And AI Policy

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was a guest on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning and covered a lot of ground including the interest rates, the China trade talks, AI accountability and the President’s decision to ban the White House press corps of MS NOW, CNN and Politico.

Bessent, in an interview that aired Monday morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box, shrugged off last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates to 3.75% to 4% — its first rate hike since February 2023. “Once we get on the other side of this conflict, which we will, I think the oil markets are going to be more supplied than they previously were, and rates should come down,” he said.

Right now the 10-year note is yielding at 5% plus or minus on the treasuries. That’s up 100 basis points since the war with Iran began in late February. He admitted that the Treasury Department’s $5 billion plus buyback of 10- and 20-year notes on September 10 did nothing to bring down the yields on long-term bonds in the aftermath of the announcement. However, he said they would have gone up even more without the announcement.

“Since President Trump has come in, the U.S. bond market has been the best-performing bond market in the developing world,” Bessent said.

The official also spoke at length about his 12-hour meeting on Sunday with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit at the White House later this week. He outlined a safety framework for AI with He and established a channel to deal with any future incidents — whether caused by “uncontrollable agents,” nonstate cyber attackers, or even bioweapons. He also spoke about the November 10 expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce and how Iran’s biggest trading partner is China.

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Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock

Military conflicts, economic wars, and resource wars are converging ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Export restrictions on critical materials and energy products are adding economic pressure worldwide, raising the risk that supply disruptions and retaliatory measures widen existing conflicts. With no clear path to de-escalation, the potential for spillover from active war zones remains top of mind.

The most pressing news so far this morning is that Ukraine launched a major overnight drone strike on Russia, hitting a Moscow refinery despite President Trump’s request for Ukraine to stop striking Russian energy infrastructure as a global refining crisis deepens.

Bloomberg reports that the Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery, about 16 miles from the Kremlin, was struck by drones. The facility has a processing capacity of around 245,000 barrels a day and supplies fuel to the surrounding metro area.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X, “One of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican.”

Last week, diesel futures and refining spreads climbed to record highs as worsening supply disruptions in the Gulf and Russia tightened availability of the industrial fuel that powers the global economy.

Potential export restrictions, or extensions of existing restrictions, are compounding the squeeze. A report on Tuesday said Moscow was considering extending its diesel export ban, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that day he was “open to exploring” a US diesel export ban.

The squeeze was even more severe in refining spreads. The US heating oil crack, which measures the difference between fuel and crude prices, surged to $117 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest level in Bloomberg data going back to 2009.

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