Ukraine has violated Victory Day ceasefire – Moscow

The Ukrainian military has violated the Victory Day ceasefire on 8,970 occasions since it took effect at midnight on Friday, including drone and artillery strikes, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

Moscow said on Friday that it had ordered all of its troops along the Ukraine front line to halt combat operations and stay at their positions.

In a statement on Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry stressed that its forces were continuing to abide by the ceasefire. By contrast, the Ukrainian military had conducted “strikes on our forces’ positions involving unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery,” military officials in Moscow reported. On top of that, a number of Russian regions, including Crimea, Bryansk Region, Belgorod Region, Kursk Region, and Moscow Region, have come under Ukrainian attacks.

According to the ministry, of the 8,970 ceasefire violations on Kiev’s part, 1,173 attacks were conducted by Ukrainian artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, mortars and tanks. The Russian military has additionally recorded a total of 7,151 enemy drone strikes.

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Trump Considering Moving the Troops Withdrawn From Germany to Poland

Goodbye Germany, hello Poland?

We have been reporting here on TGP about the repercussions of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s offensive comment about the US operations in the Middle East, and the fierce response by Donald J. Trump, as you can read in Trump Hits Back at Germany’s Merz for Suggesting that Iran ‘Is Humiliating the US’, as Foreign Minister Wadephul Tries To Walk Back the Absurd Comments by failing Chancellor.

This is an unforced error by Merz that showed his true colors and his lack of appreciation for his US allies.

In fact, Merz is failing badly as head of government, as we reported in a post on Merz’s first year as Chancellor:

“Merz’s numbers are a record low: a mid-April poll shows only 18% of voters are satisfied with his work, while as much as 80% are dissatisfied. Even the majority of Merz voters are reportedly unhappy.”

Now that the withdrawal of US troops from Germany is considered a done deal, Trump is constantly asked whether the US troops withdrawn from Germany will be moved to Poland.

Now, Trump said that Warsaw favors the idea, and he considers it to be feasible.

Euronews reported:

“US President Donald Trump has admitted he is considering moving some of the American troops being withdrawn from Germany to Poland.”

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WaPo Satellite Analysis: Iran Hit More Than 225 U.S. Military Assets Across Region Through Mid-April

Iranian airstrikes that were launched to retaliate for the unprovoked U.S.-Israeli attack on the country have hit almost 230 U.S. military assets across the region, a review of satellite imagery by The Washington Post shows.

The damage, the Post reported, exceeds that reported by the Defense Department.

The report comes a week after the department’s head bean-counter low-balled the cost of the war during testimony before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee.

In late March, The New York Times revealed that Iranian strikes had wrecked 13 military bases across the Middle East.

But this latest report suggests that Iran hit back hard. And, it shows, Trump’s war planners underestimated Iran’s ability to defend itself and inflict costly damage.

The airstrikes “have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment,” the imagery showed:

The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.

The threat of air attacks rendered some of the U.S. bases in the region too dangerous to staff at normal levels, and commanders moved most of the personnel from these sites out of the range of Iranian fire at the start of the war, officials have said.

While imagery of the region is difficult to obtain, the newspaper scrutinized more than 100 images that Iran released. It validated 109 against the European Union’s low-resolution Copernicus system and the Planet system’s high-resolution imagery. While the Post excluded some images, none was manipulated.

“In a separate search of Planet imagery, Post reporters found 10 damaged or destroyed structures that were not documented in the imagery released by Iran,” the newspaper continued:

In all, The Post found 217 structures and 11 pieces of equipment that were damaged or destroyed at 15 U.S. military sites in the region.

In other words, Iran had no trouble hitting targets:

“The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel, who reviewed the Iranian images at The Post’s request. The Post previously revealed how Russia provided Iran with intelligence to target U.S. forces.

Some of the damage may have occurred after U.S. troops already left the bases, making protection of the structures less vital. Cancian and other experts said they do not believe the attacks have significantly limited the U.S. military’s ability to conduct its bombing campaign in Iran.

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Deep State Leaks CIA Iran War Dossier to WaPo

The Deep State leaked a CIA Iran war dossier to the Washington Post that refutes Trump’s claims that the Iranian Regime’s missiles are mostly decimated.

On Wednesday, President Trump sparred with a reporter in the Oval Office during a meeting with UFC fighters.

The reporter asked Trump about his decision to pause Project Freedom amid a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump told the reporter that the US military has decimated Iran’s missile capabilities and they probably only have about 18 percent left.

“You’re facing an opponent right now in Iran that has refused to submit. You seem optimistic announcing you may be closer to a deal – but what’s different now?” a reporter asked Trump about his latest decision to pause Project Freedom.

“Well, why do you say they refused to submit? You don’t know that! You don’t know what’s going on behind closed doors,” Trump said.

The reporter tried to interject: “They were firing on US troops a few days ago…”

“Yeah, a few days ago is a long time ago. You know, in the world of war, a few days ago, no, they want to make a deal badly. And we’ll see if we get there,” Trump said.

“If we get there, they can’t have nuclear weapons. You know, it’s very simple. But what’s not to submit? So they had a Navy with one hundred and fifty nine ships and now every ship is blown to pieces and lying at the bottom of the water,” Trump added.

“They had an air force, lots of planes, and they don’t have any planes. They don’t have any anti aircraft. They don’t have any radar left,” the president said.

“Their missiles are mostly decimated. They have some. They have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” he said.

“And their leaders are all dead. So I think we won. Now it’s only a question of, look, if we left right now around, it would take them 20 years to rebuild!” Trump said. “We’re in good shape.”

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Oil trader pockets reported $125 mn on suspiciously well-timed Iran bet – media

A massive crude oil bet placed shortly before reports of a possible US-Iran peace deal sent prices crashing and fueled suspicion of insider trading, after the position reportedly generated a $125 million profit in just over an hour.

According to market commentary platform the Kobeissi Letter, nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts were placed around 3:40 AM (07:40 GMT) on Wednesday “without any major news,” describing the roughly $920 million position as unusually large for that time of day.

At 4:50 AM, Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement to end the conflict and resume negotiations. Oil prices plunged more than 12% within two hours of the report, turning the short position into an estimated $125 million profit before the price later rebounded, the platform said.

During the US-Israeli war against Iran, prediction and traditional financial markets were flooded with suspiciously well-timed bets linked to airstrikes, ceasefire announcements, and diplomatic developments.

According to The Guardian, traders placed more than $1 billion in seemingly prescient wagers, including an $850,000 bet shortly before US strikes against Iran and around $950 million in oil futures hours before Trump announced a ceasefire in April. AP reported that the ceasefire announcement alone generated more than 413 million predictions and over $100 million in wagers across prediction markets within days.

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Report: Saudi Arabia Blocked ‘Project Freedom’ by Denying U.S. Access to Bases

Two unnamed U.S. officials told NBC News on Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” — the plan for American military forces to safely escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz — was “paused” after less than 48 hours because Saudi Arabia denied the use of its airbases to protect ships from attacks by Iran.

According to NBC’s sources, the Saudi government was “surprised” and “angered” when Trump announced Project Freedom with a Truth Social post on Sunday afternoon.

Trump said he was acting in response to requests from “countries from all over the world” who were “neutral and innocent bystanders” to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

“For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways, so that they can freel and ably get on with their business,” the president wrote.

Trump dubbed the initiative “Project Freedom” and said it would begin on Monday, only a few hours after he wrote his Truth Social post. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it was ready to support the effort immediately, as part of America’s commitment to freedom of navigation.

“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” CENTCOM commander Adm. Bradley Cooper said on Sunday.

CENTCOM’s statement suggested Project Freedom was an extension of an initiative announced by the Department of War the previous week to “enhance coordination and information-sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait.”

“Project Freedom is defensive in nature, focused in scope, temporary in duration [and] with one mission: protecting innocent commercial shipping from Iranian aggression,” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Monday, announcing that two ships had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of U.S. destroyers.

Hegseth said Iran “cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway.”

“Iran is the clear aggressor, harassing civilian vessels, threatening mariners from every nation indiscriminately, and weaponizing a critical choke point for its own financial benefit,” he said.

On Tuesday, Hegseth praised the success of Project Freedom at a Pentagon press conference, and said “hundreds more ships from nations around the world are lining up to transit.”

“As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait,” he said.

“American destroyers are on station, supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance aircraft providing 24/7 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels — except Iran’s, of course,” he said.

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Among the Few Who Resist Hidden Persuasion

Most folks are caught up in points of view shaped for them by others.

These others can vary from parents, teachers, religious figures, writers of various persuasions, podcasters and ideologically driven politicians of right or left who, in their worse manifestations are wolves in political clothing — a recent example of which now resides in the “Oval Office.”

In other words, there are plenty of would-be sources of inspiration out there, but it is always a good thing to look before you leap.

It is interesting that once a charismatic ideologue becomes a powerful “world leader,” a large number of other less powerful national leaders, to say nothing of their millions of constituents, fall into line.

If there is a political or ideological interest to be served, the less powerful might offer excuses and rationalizations to accept the most barbaric of policies of the principal in power.

This is the case of those Western European leaders going along with the policies of the American-Israeli leadership cabal. A principled stand, or even a stand based on the most cursory knowledge of history, seems to be beyond these subalterns. Yet, taken one by one, they are all “normal” politicians.

‘Normal’ Politicians

Many of the politicians who rotate as elected leaders of democratic nations must learn to reflect an established party line even if it no longer reflects reality. That is, even if it means lying about the present and/or de-contextualizing the past.

Take, for example, the reaction of otherwise normal politicians to the Oct. 7, 2023, Palestinian incursion into Israel. The reaction of Israeli politicians was predictable and a good example of ideological distortion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incursion as “the worst act of anti-Semitic violence since the Holocaust.” His claim follows the national Israeli narrative that asserts nothing Jewish Israel does can justify such an attack by Palestinians. It must be due to anti-Semitism.

In truth, the 2023 Palestinian incursion and the violence associated with it, had nothing to do with the Jewishness of the majority Israelis, but everything to do with the behavior of the Israeli state: the colonialist dispossession of the Palestinians and the discrimination practiced toward them by an entity that choses to call itself a Jewish state.

The anti-semitic charge might fit into the Israel = home of the Jews narrative believed by just about all Jews in Israel and some in the diaspora, but it is nonetheless misleading.

Until now, the Israeli narrative has been accepted by the West’s “normal” politicians. They have interpreted Oct. 7, 2023, as an anti-Semitic act.

For instance, the British prime minister at the time, Rishi Sunak, called the incursion a “pogrom.”  French President Emmanuel Macron called it an “unspeakable horror” which “feeds on anti-Semitism and propagates it.”

U.S. President Joe Biden labeled the attack “unadulterated evil” and connected it to a global surge in anti-Semitism. The U.S. secretary of state at the time, Antony Blinken, condemned the incursion as a horrific dehumanization of Israelis.

Keir Starmer in the U.K., the current prime minister who was then the leader of the opposition Labour Party, termed the attack the “darkest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for solidarity against a “new wave of anti-Semitism,” while European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the incursion was a unique horror and pain inflicted upon the Jewish people. 

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US and Iran Exchange Fire in the Strait of Hormuz – US Intercepts Iranian Attacks on 3 Navy Ships

Ceasefire is hanging by a thread.

While military sources still insist that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is still ongoing, worrying reports have arisen of a new exchange of fire between the two countries.

According to the official CENTCOM X post, the US forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.

Iranian forces reportedly fired missiles and drones at the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason as the ships transited the strait.

No US assets were reportedly struck.

The US military eliminated the inbound threats, and fired at the Iranian military facilities responsible for the attack.

Missile and drone launch sites, as well as command and control locations, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes were targeted.

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DOJ Investigating Suspicious Iran War Oil Trading Trend: Report

Ups and downs in the war with Iran may have been an opportunity for insiders betting on oil prices to make a killing, according to a new report.

The report from ABC News said the Department of Justice is taking a close look at several oil market trades that came just before critical moments in the war with Iran.

In four transactions under review, the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are examining trades that netted more than $2.6 billion to individuals who bet oil prices would drop immediately before they did so.

From the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, the oil market has been up and down depending upon Iran’s strategy, America’s response, and expectations that oil might again flow freely.

The London Stock Exchange Group highlighted the trades, which began on March 23, when 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced a delay on attacks against Iranian infrastructure, a $500 million bet was placed that oil prices would dip.

On April 7, only hours ahead of Trump’s announcement of a temporary halt in hostilities, a $960 million bet was placed that oil prices would fall.

On April 17, 20 minutes before Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, a $760 million bet was placed that oil prices were going to drop.

On April 21, 15 minutes before the ceasefire was extended, $430 million worth of bets was placed predicting oil prices were going down.

The Guardian noted last month that the conflict has been accompanied by unprecedented betting on events through online betting platforms, with many bets being precisely timed to events in the war.

For example, according to one complaint before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, six so-called insiders reaped $1.2 million from betting when former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be killed.

Reining this in through legislation is a complex task, if it can be done at all, one expert said.

“Is the problem that we don’t have legislation or that we don’t have enforcement capabilities?” Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University, said.

“To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse,” he said.

The oil price bets appear suspicious, another expert said.

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US greenlights bomb deal for Ukraine

The administration of US President Donald Trump has approved the potential sale of precision-guided bomb kits worth $373.6 million to Ukraine, following congressional pressure over stalled arms deliveries.

The move was announced by the State Department on Tuesday, greenlighting a possible Foreign Military Sale of 1,532 JDAM-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) tail kits and related support equipment to Kiev. The equipment could be used to convert heavy bombs into GPS-guided munitions that can hit targets dozens of kilometers away. Boeing, headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is listed as the primary contractor.

The deal does not guarantee that the weapons will be delivered, while the figures represent the maximum quantity and value of the purchase, with details subject to further negotiations and congressional review.

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