Tag: perpetual war

Let’s Be Clear: If WW3 Happens It Will Be The Result Of Choices Made By The US Empire

The commander of the US nuclear arsenal has stated unequivocally that the war in Ukraine is just a warmup exercise for a much larger conflict that’s already in the mail.

Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp reports:

The commander that oversees US nuclear forces delivered an ominous warning at a naval conference last week by calling the war in Ukraine a “warmup” for the “big one” that is to come.

“This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup,” said Navy Adm. Charles Richard, the commander of US Strategic command. “The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested [in] a long time.”

Richard’s warning came after the US released its new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which reaffirms that the US doctrine allows for the first use of nuclear weapons. The review says that the purpose of the US nuclear arsenal is to “deter strategic attacks, assure allies and partners, and achieve US objectives if deterrence fails.”

Not only does Richard appear to believe that a hot war between major world powers is a foregone conclusion, he has also previously stated that a nuclear war with Russia or China is now “a very real possibility.”

Again, this is not some armchair warrior opining from his desk at a corporate newspaper or DC think tank, this is the head of STRATCOM. Richard would be personally overseeing the very warfare he is talking about.

What I find most striking about remarks like these is how passive they always make it sound. Richard talks about “The Big One” like other people talk about California earthquakes, as though a hot war with China would be some kind of natural disaster that just happened out of nowhere.

This type of rhetoric is becoming more and more common. Describing an Atomic Age world war as something that would happen to the US empire, rather than the direct result of concrete A-or-B decisions made by the empire, is becoming its own genre of foreign policy punditry.

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White House Held Secret Talks With Putin Aides To Avert US-Russia War

The White House has reportedly held secretive behind-the-scenes dialogue with the Kremlin related to the war in Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal revealed on Sunday, citing unnamed US and allied officials. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spearheaded the secret talks with high-level Russian officials in recent months, reportedly with the aim of reducing the risk of the two nuclear-armed superpowers stumbling into a direct broader conflict. 

“The officials said that U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan has been in contact with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. Mr. Sullivan also has spoken with his direct counterpart in the Russian government, Nikolai Patrushev, the officials added,” according to WSJ.

“The aim has been to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine, the officials said.”

Talks between Sullivan and top Russian officials haven’t been disclosed on a public level since March. In response to the WSJ story, the Biden administration neither confirmed nor denied the claims of secret contact between the two sides, with National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson when asked if Sullivan had the conversations replying in a Sunday night statement, “People claim a lot of things.”

Further the report notes, “Several U.S. officials said that Mr. Sullivan is known within the administration as pushing for a line of communication with Russia, even as other top policy makers feel that talks in the current diplomatic and military environment wouldn’t be fruitful.”

The report doesn’t indicate whether the alleged phone calls were positive or led to a lessening of tensions from Washington’s perspective, nor is it known precisely when they took place. US-Moscow relations have hit an all-time historic low in the wake of the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, with the two nations’ top diplomats, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, having only spoken once (at least one publicly disclosed conversation) – which was focused on a potential prisoner swap. 

President Biden in an early October media interview appeared to shut the door on the possibility of talks with Putin, saying at the time, “Look, I have no intention of meeting with him. But for example, if he came to me at the G20 and said I want to talk about the release of Griner, I’d meet with him. I mean, it would depend,” he explained.

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The Self-Licking Boot Of US Militarism

A new Bloomberg article titled “‘Sloppy’ US Talk on China’s Threat Worries Some Skeptical Experts” discusses the dangerous cycle in which pressures in the US political establishment to continually escalate hostilities with Beijing provokes responses that are then falsely interpreted as Chinese aggression.

Bloomberg’s Iain Marlow writes:

The hawkish narrative “limits room for maneuver in a crisis,” said M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Any effort to defuse tension could be characterized as “conciliatory or not tough enough,” he said.

China has been consistent on Taiwan and there’s little public evidence to suggest it’s sped up the timeline to take Taiwan, said a former senior US official who worked on China policy but asked not to be identified.

The former official said the hawkish tone in DC has contributed to a cycle where the US makes the first move, interprets Chinese reactions as a provocation, and then escalates further.

Bloomberg quotes Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund, who says this cycle of self-reinforcing escalation could “end up provoking the war that we seek to deter.”

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Pentagon says it will fund tanks for Ukraine

The Pentagon on Friday announced it will be funding tanks sent to Ukraine for the first time, part of a $400 million military assistance package that will also provide armored vehicles, drones and a budget to refurbish air defense missiles. 

The additional military, ground and air capabilities come as Ukrainian forces are pushing forward on an offensive to retake the southern city of Kherson, even as they come under increased aerial attacks from Russia, including from Iranian-supplied drones.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called for NATO to supply tanks within the first weeks of Russia’s invasion, which began on Feb. 24.

On Friday he tweeted that Ukraine is “thankful to [President Biden] and the people of [the United States] for another $400 military assistance package.” 

The weapons package includes 90 refurbished T-72 tanks, which will all come from the Czech Republic. The United States will pay for 45 of them to be refurbished, while the Netherlands will pay to refurbish the other 45, according to Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh.

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Africa Doesn’t Want to Be a New-Cold-War Breeding Ground

On Oct. 17, the head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), U.S. Marine Corps General Michael Langley visited Morocco. Langley met with senior Moroccan military leaders, including Inspector General of the Moroccan Armed Forces Belkhir El Farouk.

Since 2004, AFRICOM has held its “largest and premier annual exercise,” African Lion, partly on Moroccan soil. This past June, 10 countries participated in the African Lion 2022, with observers from Israel (for the first time) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Langley’s visit is part of a broader U.S. push onto the African continent, which we documented in our dossier No. 42 (July 2021), “Defending Our Sovereignty: U.S.  Military Bases in Africa and the Future of African Unity,” a joint publication with The Socialist Movement of Ghana’s Research Group.

In that text, we wrote that the two important principles of Pan-Africanism are political unity and territorial sovereignty and argued that the “enduring presence of foreign military bases not only symbolises the lack of unity and sovereignty; it also equally enforces the fragmentation and subordination of the continent’s peoples and governments.”

In August, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield travelled to Ghana, Uganda and Cape Verde. “We’re not asking Africans to make any choices between the United States and Russia,” she said ahead of her visit, but, she added, “for me, that choice would be simple.”

That choice is nonetheless being impelled by the U.S. Congress as it deliberates the Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act, a bill that would sanction African states if they do business with Russia (and could possibly extend to China in the future).

To understand this unfolding situation, our friends at No Cold War have prepared their briefing No. 5, “NATO Claims Africa as Its ‘Southern Neighbourhood,’” which looks at how NATO has begun to develop a proprietary view of Africa and how the U.S.  government considers Africa to be a frontline in its Global Monroe Doctrine. That briefing can be downloaded here.

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Stop Worrying & Love the Bomb

I have covered enough wars to know that once you open that Pandora’s box, the many evils that pour out are beyond anyone’s control. War accelerates the whirlwind of industrial killing. The longer any war continues, the closer and closer each side comes to self-annihilation.  Unless it is stopped, the proxy war between Russia and the U.S. in Ukraine all but guarantees direct confrontation with Russia and, with it, the very real possibility of nuclear war.`

U.S. President Joe Biden, who doesn’t always seem to be quite sure where he is or what he is supposed to be saying, is being propped up in the I-am-a-bigger-man-than-you contest with Russian President Vladimir Putin by a coterie of rabid warmongers who have orchestrated over 20 years of military fiascos. They are salivating at the prospect of taking on Russia, and then, if there is any habitation left on the globe, China.

Trapped in the polarizing mindset of the Cold War — where any effort to de-escalate conflicts through diplomacy is considered appeasement, a perfidious Munich moment — they smugly push the human species closer and closer toward obliteration. Unfortunately for us, one of these true believers is Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the Member States, and the United States and NATO are not bluffing neither,” E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned. “Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian Army will be annihilated.”

Annihilated. Are these people insane?

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Kiev slated to receive drone-killing VAMPIREs

Ukraine is expected to soon receive a number of so-called VAMPIRE counter-drone systems, according to Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder, who confirmed Washington’s commitment to supply Kiev with air defense capabilities. The statement came amid Russia’s continued strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Ryder said the US government has yet to secure a contract for the laser-guided missile launchers but expects one to be reached within the next few months. “Right now we’re anticipating delivery to be mid-2023,” he explained, noting that “air defense continues to be a priority.”  

The VAMPIRE, or Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment, can be installed on the cargo bed of almost any civilian truck and uses laser-guided munitions capable of hitting both ground and airborne targets, including unmanned aerial vehicles. Although it is not explicitly advertised as an anti-drone weapon, systems similar to the VAMPIRE have been used extensively in Ukraine for that purpose.   

These systems are part of a $3 billion arms package for Ukraine announced by the Pentagon back in August. This also includes the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS, which Washington also says will be arriving in Ukraine “in the very near future.” 

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‘Destroy Russia Together’: Jim Inhofe Calls for Even More Aid to Ukraine

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Forces Committee, on Tuesday called for even more aid to Ukraine as he urges the West to “Destroy Russia Together.”

“Many of our @NATO allies on the front lines with Russia give more aid to Ukraine pound-for-pound than the U.S. That’s why we need to ramp up industrial capacity to refill our own weapons stocks, sell to allies to refill their own and sustain Ukraine victories,” Inhofe wrote on Tuesday. 

Inhofe shared a graphic detailing allegedly how Latvia gives more than other wealthier countries to Ukraine as a percent of its military budget. 

The graphic, however, ignores that the United States has already given far more in financial, humanitarian, and military aid than most other European countries combined, including Latvia. Many countries have also given far more in military aid than Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania compared to the graphic’s decision to measure ratios of a country’s military budget to military aid to Ukraine. 

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the United States has given roughly $27.29 billion in military aid to Ukraine, the European Union (EU) has given roughly $2.47 billion in military aid, and the United Kingdom (UK) has given roughly $3.69 billion in military Ukraine.

In contrast, Latvia has only given roughly $290 million in military aid to Ukraine, Estonia has only given $250 million in military aid, and Lithuania has only given roughly $187 million in aid to Ukraine. 

The Kiel Institute shows that the United States has provided far beyond the most military aid, with most European countries paling in comparison.

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Pentagon Confirms US Boots Are On The Ground In Ukraine

Two bombshell reports by the Associated Press and Washington Post Monday and Tuesday have confirmed that the United States has boots on the ground in the Ukraine conflict. Crucially, these troops are performing tasks separate from mere embassy security. 

The American troops are said to be performing “inspections” of US weapon caches after last week the State Department and Pentagon unveiled a new plan to track US-supplied weapons in efforts to implement accountability for the billions of dollars worth of arms and ammunition transferred to Ukrainian forces since near the start of the war eight months ago.

“A small number of U.S. military forces inside Ukraine have recently begun doing onsite inspections to ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly accounting for the Western-provided weapons they receive, a senior U.S. defense official told Pentagon reporters Monday,” the AP/WaPo reporting revealed.

A Pentagon briefing confirmed this “small” contingency of troops has been advised to not do inspections “close” to the front lines of fighting: 

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide a military update, would not say where the inspections are taking place or how close to the battlefronts the U.S. troops are getting. The official said U.S. personnel can’t do inspections “close to the front lines,” but said they are going where security conditions allow.

There have already been “several inspections” overseen by U.S. Defense attache and a US Office of Defense Cooperation team based out of the Ukrainian capital. The report underscores that “U.S. President Joe Biden has ruled out any combat role for U.S. forces inside Ukraine.” 

However, what’s clear is that despite the White House’s ruling out of “combat” troops, this is the start of perhaps inevitable ‘mission creep’ – as has been seen in other conflict zones (such as Syria). If US troops are doing inspections of Ukrainian arms and ammo, and presumably Russia is currently targeting any and all Ukrainian military bases, this puts American troops and assets in Russia’s crosshairs, greatly increasing the possibility that the US and Russia could stumble into a direct shooting war.

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Saudi Arabia, US On High Alert After Warning Of Imminent Iranian Attack; US Prepared To Respond

With oil prices set to soar after the midterms as the SPR drain ends and markets no longer have desperate democrats to help fulfill their immediate energy needs, moments ago the WSJ unveiled another potential oil price powder keg, so to speak, when it reported that according to Saudi and U.S. officials, Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the U.S. warning of an imminent attack from Iran on targets in the kingdom, putting the American military and others in the Middle East on an elevated alert level.

The report goes on to note that Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September.

In response to the warning, Saudi Arabia – which until recently was on the Biden admin “naughty list” after the crown prince snubbed Biden’s demands for no OPEC+ output cut – the U.S. and several other neighboring states have raised the level of alert for their military forces, the officials said. They didn’t provide more details on the Saudi intelligence.

Separately, the White House National Security Council said it was concerned about the warnings and ready to respond if Iran carried out an attack.

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