Tag: infrastructure

Kallas & Zelensky Cannot Sleep as Long As One Russian is Still Breathing

For whatever it’s worth, it seems diesel fuel and heating oil are set to climb, with a final peak next March. A cold winter could speed that up, but Ukraine has already inflicted massive damage on Russia’s refineries. Diesel has a dramatic impact on food. In Asia, ships need diesel to transport food back, and farmers can’t harvest their crops without it. Trump is right that Zelensky is affecting the entire world, and Zelensky has openly said he doesn’t give a damn. Even worse, all the critics pushing for World War III insist Trump shouldn’t lift any sanctions on Russia. They won’t be satisfied until there’s a nuclear war.

In the case of wheat, we had a Directional Change in 2025 and that has been correct. A close at year end simply above 645 when we are currently at the 670 area is projecting a serious risk of a rally into 2030. Between Zelensky and Netanyahu, this dynamic-duo is really screwing the entire world and then we have ruthless Neocons, include Kaja Kallas in Europe, who cannot sleep at night as long as one Russian is still alive.

Even the Ukrainian government-controlled press states that they will NOT honor any ceasefire on energy. What if the EU were supplying Carney in Canada to wage war against the United States with 80,000 drones—who is the enemy? Canada, which launches the drones, or the country providing them? In law, if you hire someone to kill your spouse, you cannot claim innocence on the grounds that you didn’t pull the trigger. The UK has supplied over 80,000 drones to Zelensky, orchestrated by Boris Johnson, who has intervened to ensure Zelensky does not agree to peace.

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Utilities Struggle to Confront Issue of ‘Phantom’ AI Data Centers

Electric utilities across the country are tightening their rules on new AI data center customers, requiring binding financial commitments, collateral and steep engineering fees to separate genuine projects from speculative ones, known as “phantom” data centers in the industry.

The Wall Street Journal reports that AI’s electricity appetite has buried utilities in requests for grid connections, and many of those requests are never going to turn into actual buildings. Wood Mackenzie, a research firm, puts only 23 percent of disclosed data-center requests in the “high confidence” category. The rest is speculation.

Jeanne Jones, executive vice president of finance and strategy at Exelon, a utility operating across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, said inquiries began ballooning in 2024, and the individual asks got bigger too. A typical request used to be around 50 megawatts, about enough to power 50 Walmart stores. Now companies ask for 1,000 megawatts or more, the kind of output you’d expect from a large nuclear reactor.

Exelon used to study each project on its own. But once service requests from large customers tripled to 18,000 megawatts, the company switched to studying them in clusters instead. Jones described the challenge as separating “real growth that’s going to happen versus speculative growth.”

“We would get these questions internally but also externally: ‘How do you know what’s real?’” Jones said.

Exelon’s fix was to require binding financial commitments and collateral before granting a connection. That dropped the company’s high-probability project list from 18,000 megawatts to 11,000, with the remaining projects posting roughly $1 billion in collateral.

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The $64 Million Harrisburg Question

A few weeks before Gov. Josh Shapiro arrived in Harrisburg to make a splashy announcement of $64 million toward a revitalization plan for the capital city, local officials faced a far less photogenic task: finding $2.3 million to return to the state. The city had failed to finish a playground project at Reservoir Park before its grant deadline expired, despite multiple extensions. Indeed, in Pennsylvania’s capital, even free money apparently requires more administrative competence than we can reliably supply.

That’s why the mood in Harrisburg is flickering somewhere between cautiously optimistic and carefully pessimistic after Shapiro’s September 28 announcement of $64 million in public and private investment — including $22.7 million of state money —under the banner“Harrisburg Works for All of Us.” Given the city’s current moribund state, that slogan almost feels ironic — it barely works. It’s too bad the plan’s long-term success relies heavily on the two parties least equipped to deliver it: a corrupt, incompetent mayor in Wanda Williams and a do-nothing City Hall often at war with her.

First, the good news. On paper, there is plenty to like: a new downtown hotel, improvements to the criminally underutilized Susquehanna Riverfront, and funding to develop a master plan to revitalize City Island. There’s also vague talk of improving public safety technology and parking woes. But for nearly every nice bullet point in Shapiro’s Harrisburg agenda, there’s a caveat or an incomplete grade.

What no one will say is that this plan is a compensation package for the partial withdrawal of the state government. This is a company town, and that company is the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It’s by far the biggest landlord here, and it pays no property taxes. Harrisburg became a ghost town during Covid, and six years later, it still hasn’t fully returned to its pre-2020 self. Why? Despite a return-to-office mandate, many Commonwealth employees have stayed fully remote or work hybrid, and the old five-day lunch crowd is a thing of the past. Shapiro’s Space Optimization & Utilization Project (SOUP), released in 2025, reflects this new reality; it shrank the government’s office footprint in Harrisburg and beyond to cut costs. In the end, there was no reason to keep up the facade of big office spaces with fewer people.

The savings make sense on the state’s balance sheet. But what’s good for Pennsylvania taxpayers is bad for Harrisburg on the ground, and the scarcity of state workers has helped fuel the doom-loop effect. Walk downtown on a Monday or Tuesday morning, and you’ll find nearly as many homeless people shuffling through the streets near the green-domed Capitol building as state workers. Over the last three years, restaurants, pharmacies, and other needed retail have closed, and a stretch of Second Street resembles a post-apocalyptic wasteland, with trash in the streets and people sleeping in doorways of abandoned buildings. When pasta joint Pastorante closed in mid-2025, the owner cited declining business, neighborhood bar fights, the odor of marijuana everywhere, and a shop window shattered by gunfire. They moved to nearby Steelton, which isn’t exactly fleeing to a crime-free paradise.

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Ukraine Reportedly Bombs Russian Oil Terminal Which is Part of Deal to Lower Price of Diesel to the US

The war machine extending the Ukrainian-Russian War is not our friend. They are doing everything to hurt President Trump and the US economy!

Ukraine Reportedly Bombs Russian Oil Terminal, Which is Part of Deal to Lower the Price of Diesel to the United States.

On Friday, President Trump announced that the price of diesel was coming down fast after he reached a deal with Ukraine on Truth Social.

I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Overnight, a massive Russian terminal is bombed by Ukraine.  The following was reported:

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Putin’s Winter Strategy: Destroy Ukraine’s Infrastructure, Intimidate Berlin

Russia’s drone and missile campaign against Ukraine has entered a new phase, aimed at the infrastructure that keeps Ukraine’s cities functioning and at the countries that keep its military supplied. In Kyiv, Russian drone strikes have closed or restricted three of six road bridges linking the capital’s two banks.

In Germany, Ukraine’s largest European provider of military aid, the government has blamed Moscow for an explosive-laden drone found at Leipzig airport and says it expects more hybrid attacks. With ceasefire talks unlikely to produce results before spring 2027, Putin appears to be using the winter to raise the cost of the war for Ukrainians and for Berlin.

The bridge strikes on October 1 and 2 targeted a pressure point in how Kyiv is laid out. The South Bridge, which carries both road traffic and metro trains, was hit three times in 24 hours, and the city has no vehicle tunnel under the Dnipro.

Before the 2022 invasion, more than a third of the city’s roughly 3 million residents lived on the eastern, or left, bank. Most government institutions and companies sit on the western bank. After the October 2 strikes, the Paton Bridge was closed in both directions, restrictions were placed on the Metro Bridge, and public transport was rerouted.

The Kyiv Defense Council called an emergency meeting on cross-river traffic. Traffic was restored by midday, but the attacks showed that Russia can disrupt movement between the city’s two banks within hours. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it struck an automobile-railway bridge because it was being used to move troops and military supplies.

Ukrainian officials link the bridge strikes to a decision made in Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times that Putin ordered his military leadership in September to abandon previous restraints on drone and missile strikes, citing intercepted Kremlin communications. “He said there are no rules now,” Zelenskyy said. Since then, Russian strikes have hit schools, hospitals, and data centers in Kyiv.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the newspaper that Russian forces do not strike civilian infrastructure. The escalation followed a pause in strikes against Kyiv that Putin ordered during a visit by U.S. negotiators in September.

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Southern California Power Providers Urge Residents to Conserve Energy, Avoid Using Major Appliances Amid Sweltering Heat Wave to Avoid Rolling Blackouts

California bans the sale of gas-powered vehicles, then urges residents not to plug in their electric vehicles to conserve energy amid sweltering heat waves – or else there will be rolling blackouts.

Southern California is currently baking amid a multi-day October heat wave.

Temperatures soared into the triple digits in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, and Riverside over the weekend and will continue all week.

Even the coastal cities are sizzling.

On Monday, the power providers urged residents to conserve energy. Southern Californians were asked to avoid using major appliances and urged to set thermostats at 78 degrees or higher.

The Orange County Register reported:

Southern California Edison said it is “closely monitoring the electric system and preparing for the potential impacts of increased electrical demand.”

“We use every available resource to provide reliable service,” according to SCE. “Even so, extreme heat can increase energy use and put extra strain on the electric system, which may increase the likelihood of temporary outages.

“We encourage customers to prepare now for possible outages and periods of increased energy use. Consider charging mobile devices, reviewing emergency plans and making sure any critical equipment has backup power if available. You can also help reduce strain on the grid by conserving energy from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m., including limiting use of major appliances during those hours.”

Power providers urged residents to take steps to conserve electricity during the heat wave. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power recommends setting thermostats to 78 degrees or higher during the hottest parts of the day and avoiding the use of major appliances such as washing machines, dishwashers and vacuum cleaners.

The LADWP also recommends avoiding the use of stoves and ovens, closing curtains and blinds to reduce sunlight, turning off lights and electrical equipment when not in use and unplugging chargers and appliances that continue to draw power.

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“Deeply Flawed”: Biggest US Grid Scraps Emergency Data Center Power Auction One Day After FERC Smackdown

We have been documenting the slow-motion collision between the AI capex fantasy and the laws of physics since late 2025, when we noted that some of Oracle’s OpenAI data centers were being pushed back to 2028 (Dec 12, 2025). Since then the delays have gone from anecdote to trend: in April we reported that half of US data centers scheduled to start in 2026 will be canceled or delayed (Apr 13), in August that more than two-thirds of the power sought for US data centers will never materialize (Aug 14), and just last week the two flagship Stargate campuses hit the wall within 24 hours of each other, with SB Energy delaying the IPO meant to fund the world’s largest data center (Sept 23) and Oracle’s Project Jupiter declaring force majeure (Sept 24).

Now we can add the US electrical grid itself to the list of things that won’t arrive on time.

On Wednesday, PJM Interconnection, operator of the largest US grid stretching from Illinois to DC serving 67 million customers across 13 states, and home to Virginia’s Data Center Alley, suspended the one-time “backstop” auction it was about to launch to plug a 6.8 gigawatt hole in its supply stack, less than a day after FERC ordered it back to the drawing board. The procurement, which was supposed to open for offers on Sept 30 and run through Oct 21 with selections by early December, now has, in the words of a PJM spokesman, a launch date that is “yet to be determined.”

For those keeping score, that is a power auction for data centers… delayed. You can’t make this up.

Recall that in July, PJM’s base capacity auction for 2028/29 came up 6.8GW short of its reliability requirement, the first time in PJM’s history that the entire RTO fell short, and only the price cap kept the clearing price at roughly $325/MW-day. As we tweeted that night, without the ceiling, PJM capacity prices would have been 70% higher at $554.72. A few hours later we added that “PJM is already below the critical reliability threshold.”

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The US Doesn’t Have An Oil Problem – It Has A Refinery Problem

One of the enduring weaknesses of the modern US economy is the lack of redundancy.  As long as most of the world is operating normally and there are no serious geopolitical disruptions, America’s “just in time” system works fine.  But, throw a monkey-wrench into distribution, global exports, freight systems, shipping or elements of production and cracks quickly form in the armor.  

This does not mean that the US economy can’t adapt; the pandemic shutdowns were horrifically pointless but they did prove that the system has the ability to function despite deep deficiencies.  However, when it comes to the management of vital resources, such as energy resources, it’s clear that some changes need to be made in the near term.  

Before the war in Iran a large portion of the public was oblivious to the fact that the US is the largest exporter of oil in the world, and of the foreign oil supplies we do receive, only 8% come from Gulf nation producers.  A mere 7% of those supplies travel through the Strait of Hormuz.  In other words, the US doesn’t rely on the Gulf for oil.  With the new Venezuelan deal and oil flows from the gulf back to 98% of pre-conflict levels, the war is even less of a concern when it comes to US energy. 

The problem is, there is a global oil refinery capacity shortage, and the US is not adapting as it should.  

Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries have recently forced the Kremlin to cut off all diesel exports to other countries.  Russia is the second largest supplier of diesel in the world with 12% of all exports.  This loss to global markets is straining already struggling refineries and causing prices to climb.  The only country with the ability to increase refining capacity quickly is the US, but it’s not happening.  

The last time a full-conversion refinery was built in the US was Marathon’s Garyville, Louisiana plant. It came online in 1977 at about 200,000 b/d and has since been expanded to about 617,000 b/d.  Most U.S. capacity growth since the 1970s has come from expanding existing sites, not building new ones.    

In five decades, no major infrastructure has been added.  This means that as aging plants shut down, or as they are closed down due to state policies, US refining capacity will continue to fall and the ceiling for supply vs demand will get tighter and tighter. 

Currently, national demand for distilled products is 8.7 million b/d, and production provides only 9.5 million b/d – That’s an extremely narrow gap at 95%-98%.  Unfortunately, this gap has narrowed further due to refinery closures in 2025.  The largest drop in U.S. capacity came from the shutdown of the LyondellBasell’s Houston plant (about 264,000 barrels per day) and the Phillips 66’s Los Angeles plant (about 139,000 barrels per day). Together those removed about 400,000 b/d; small expansions elsewhere offset some of that, but not enough.  

The Houston plant was built in 1918 and was so old any expansion or updating would have been too costly.  Plants in California, on the other hand, have been closing due to crushing regulations.  Valero’s Benicia plant (about 145,000 b/d) stopped refining this spring and was taken out of monthly capacity later.

The answer to refinery shrinkage has long been “expansion creep” in existing facilities because it’s faster than building brand new infrastructure, but this is not going to help for much longer.  Current facilities are limited in their ability add on more capacity and these measures do not account for abrupt global changes, wars and crisis events. 

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Trump Maps Out $200 Billion in Korean Investment, but the Biggest Deals Aren’t Done Yet

President Donald Trump put some yuge numbers on the table Wednesday: up to $200 billion in South Korean investment for American energy projects, including Alaska LNG, eight nuclear power plants, and a massive natural gas power project in Texas.

The announcement finally gives shape to part of the $350 billion investment package South Korea agreed to as part of last year’s trade deal with Washington. Of that total, $150 billion was set aside for shipbuilding and another $200 billion for strategic investments selected in cooperation with the United States.

From Reuters:

“Thanks to the agreements my administration has secured with the Republic of Korea, they will invest up to $200 billion,” Trump said.

He said that the investment would include the construction of eight large-scale nuclear power plants, a liquefied natural gas pipeline in Alaska and a 6-gigawatt power generation facility in Texas.

The announcement is part of a series of economic and investment deals Trump is highlighting ⁠ahead of November’s midterm elections, as he seeks to reinforce his economic record amid voter concerns over the Iran war and high gasoline prices. The Alaska LNG project also comes as Republicans seek to retain incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan who faces Democrat Mary Peltola. Sullivan was in the Oval Office for the Wednesday announcement.

The Alaska LNG project includes an 807-mile (1,299-km) pipeline carrying natural gas from the North Slope to a liquefaction facility on Alaska’s southern coast, allowing the fuel to be shipped to Asian markets. The project is designed to transport about 3.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day and produce up to 20 million metric tons of LNG annually, according to the White House.

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Chuck Schumer Orders Democrats to Block Bill That Aims to Force Data Centers to Cover Increased Energy Costs

Senate Democrats are working to short-circuit a bill aimed at protecting consumers from the costs of data centers.

The Ratepayer Protection Act passed the House 417-3 in the 435-member House.

However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer opposes the bill, which he called “a fraud,” according to The Hill.

“Americans are demanding real guardrails on AI and data centers, but all the Republicans offer is a toothless messaging bill,” he said Tuesday.

The bill requires 60 votes to pass a procedural hurdle. Although Republicans have a majority in the Senate, it would take Democratic votes to move the bill forward.

Democratic Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont, who had been the lone Democrat supporting the bill, said he has changed his mind.

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