A recent CBS News poll (3/17–20/26) declared that a majority of Americans (53%) say it would be “unacceptable” if the United States were to end the conflict with Iran with that country’s current leadership still in power.
Moreover, the poll also found that large majorities of Americans say it is “important” to “make sure Iran’s people are safe and free,” to “permanently stop Iran’s nuclear programs,” and to “stop Iran from threatening other countries.”
These results seem to suggest that most Americans want the war to continue until those goals, including regime change in Iran, are actually achieved.
Much of the rest of the poll, however, suggests the public does not support the war with Iran, even when “conflict” instead of the touchy word “war” is used to describe what’s happening. According to the poll:
- 60% disapprove of the US taking military action against Iran.
- 62% disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the situation in Iran.
- 57% believe the “conflict in Iran” is going “very/somewhat badly.”
- 51% do not believe it is important to change Iran’s leaders to ones that are pro-US.
- 92% believe it is important to “end the conflict as quickly as possible.”
The report notes: “If those desires between goals and a fast end seem contradictory, it connects to the continued call for more explanation from the administration.”
The poll did ask if the Trump administration had clearly explained its goals, and only 32% said it had; 68% said no.
But that is not evidence of the public’s “continued call for more explanation.” There is nothing in the poll that suggests the public is demanding more information, and in the absence thereof, the public exhibits contradictions between its preferred goals and a quick end to the war. The explanation is a non sequitur.
One reason for the contradictions is that the poll asks each question as though it were free from any context. Respondents are not asked to evaluate each goal in light of possible cost. If, for example, regime change is a goal of the war, how long should the US continue to press for that change, given the likely cost in money and lives?
The poll lists several goals, and each one might seem pretty appealing—assuming it could be reached. Respondents hear a goal and say, sure, it’s important, without having to confront the inevitable trade-offs. Reporting such responses as though the public is actually demanding the US pay the costs to achieve regime change, or to make the Iranian people free and safe, is a wild distortion of what the poll has actually measured.
Hellbound and Down 