Tag: perpetual war

Military Draft Sign-Ups Plunge as War Fears Rise

Of men in the U.S. who turned 18 in 2023, fewer than 40% signed up for the draft – down from more than 60% in 2020 before the start of the war in Ukraine.

This eye-popping and previously undisclosed admission, as well as other revelations equally damning to plans to increase readiness to activate a draft, was included in documents released recently by the Selective Service System (SSS) in response to a Freedom Of Information Act request.

The SSS maintains a database of eligible male U.S. citizens and residents who could be conscripted if and when Congress and the President institute a draft. Per the law, American males must register within 30 days of their 18th birthday or find it difficult to get a drivers license in some states.

Public statements from supporters of draft registration have justified preparation for a draft as needed for national emergencies, self-defense, or implausible existential threats such as a Chinese invasion of the mainland US. But the lead bullet point in the newly-disclosed SSS talking points to Congress in support of the SSS proposal to automatically register all young Americans for a future draft is the possible activation of a U.S. draft for foreign wars in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.

“SSS is experiencing a significant decline in registrations by 18-year-old men. In 2020, the registration rate for 18-year-old men nationwide was 61.8%, today it is just 39.9%,” the agency reports.

Most men register eventually, but often years after their prime draft eligibility. The SSS allows men to register without penalty until their 26th birthday. Some men deliberately or inadvertently delay registering until they are close to age 26. This minimizes their exposure to a possible draft while preserving their eligibility for Federal or state jobs or other programs later in life.

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Is a Limited World War 3 Possible?

There are signs aplenty that we may face a Limited World War III (L-WW3) in the very near-future. An L-WW3 scenario would involve a global conflict, but with restraints aimed at preventing total devastation, such as the use of nuclear weapons on a wide scale. Such a war might unfold through regional conflicts, cyberattacks, physical infrastructural sabotages, proxy wars, and intense economic and technological confrontations, rather than an all-out global military clash. They could all occur simultaneously or in rapid sequence.

The Flashpoints

A flashpoint within the context of an L-WW3 refers to a region where tensions between major powers may erupt into a wider regional conflagration with global ramifications.

There are intense confrontational pressures building up across the globe. Right on top of the list would be an outright war between Israel and Iran. On Oct 1 2024, Iran launched nearly 200 hypersonic missiles towards select Israeli targets in response to the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the assassination of several high-profile Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as certain Iranian military commanders. All the missiles were launched from an Iranian base, reportedly located near the city of Shiraz.

This was the second direct Iranian attack against Israel after the April 2024 missile strikes launched from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Tehran has an enviable array of geographically-dispersed retaliatory options in the event of a direct war with Israel. Call it a masterclass in geostrategic encirclement. Its alleged hypersonic missiles can also overwhelm Israeli ballistic missile defence systems deployed thus far. This is one reason why Israel is waiting for a propitious moment to retaliate; the other being the pivotal US presidential elections on Nov 5. Tel Aviv needs to know whether a new US presidential administration will back it to the hilt.

Israel’s waiting game also hints of uncertainties within the US deep state which is probably vacillating on its preferred presidential candidate. If there were clear indications that the chosen one was Donald J. Trump, Israel would have likely retaliated within days of the Oct 1 Iranian attack. A Kamala Harris administration may not be as Israel-friendly as her predecessors and the following sections in this commentary alludes to the reasons behind this policy departure. I also doubt whether Washinton’s hands can be forced by a series of dubious attacks against US military targets in the Middle East anytime between now and Nov 5. Moreover, such an event would allow Russia to steamroll over much of eastern Ukraine.

Whatever the outcome of the evolving US political calculus, a wider Middle Eastern war remains on course.

Ukraine is another flashpoint that may lead to an L-WW3. However, Russia would have likely achieved its major military objectives before a new president takes office on Jan 20 2025. This may include the capture of the entire Donbas region — its primary objective all along — as well as the Odesa oblast. The latter scenario will reduce Ukraine into a landlocked country without access to the Black Sea.

Then there is North Korea and China. I doubt Pyongyang and Beijing will jump into the fray as soon as the Middle Eastern tinderbox is lit. They will likely play a low-intensity attritional game of cat and mouse in the region until a clearer picture emerges in the Middle East. North Korea may fire missiles across Japan — as they have repeatedly done in the past — while China may engage in provocative naval and air manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The primary goal here would be to pin down US military assets in the region, preventing them from being redeployed to the Middle East and Europe.

Realising this possible geopolitical checkmate, the European Union is now actively toying with the idea of introducing compulsory military draft.

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Israel Jails American Journalist for Reporting on Iranian Missile Strikes

Jeremy Loffredo, an American journalist for The Grayzone, has been arrested by the Israeli military for his reporting inside Israel.

Loffredo was jailed just a few days after releasing a report on Iranian missile strikes in Israel, information the Israeli military has been trying to censor. According to the Israeli news site Ynet, because of the report, Loffredo faces charges of “aiding the enemy during wartime and providing information to the enemy.”

Representatives from the US embassy attended a hearing on a police request to extend Loffredo’s detention, but so far, the US government has been silent and has not publicly called for his release.

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Biden, Netanyahu Closer to Consensus on Attacking Iran

President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to an understanding on Israel’s plans to attack Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, Axios reported on Thursday.

The report, which cited US and Israeli officials, said that the US had accepted Israel is going to launch a major attack on Iran soon and is only concerned that striking certain types of targets could dramatically escalate things. However, Iran has vowed it will respond to any type of Israeli attack, and the situation could easily turn into a full-blown war that would involve the US.

An Israeli official told Axios that the Israeli plans are still a bit more aggressive than the US would like. The US has been warning against striking nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, and recent media reports have said Israel will likely target military infrastructure.

Netanyahu convened his security cabinet on Thursday to brief them on the situation with the US and is expected to get approval for him and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to set a timeline for the Israeli attack. The Times of Israel reported that the US and Israel will continue conversations on the plans in the coming days, signaling the attack is not imminent.

NBC News reported on Tuesday that the US was considering supporting Israel’s attack with direct airstrikes of its own, although US officials said intelligence support was more likely.

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North Korea Wading Deeper Into Russia’s War Against Ukraine

North Korea appears to be getting more deeply involved in the Ukraine war, going beyond supplying Russia with munitions. Its military engineers “have been deployed to help Russia target Ukraine with ballistic missiles” it provided to Russia, The Guardian reported, citing senior officials in Kyiv and Seoul.

Dozens of North Koreans are behind Russian lines, “in teams that support launcher systems for KN-23 [short-range ballistic] missiles,” a source in Ukraine told the publication. As we reported earlier this year, North Korea began supplying Russia with those missiles, also known as Hwasong-11s, but about half were defective, according to an analysis from Ukrainian state prosecutors.

South Korea’s Defense Minister, Kim Yong-hyun, told members of parliament in Seoul this week that it was “highly likely” that North Korean officers had been deployed to fight alongside Russians, and as we previously reported, several had died last week in an attack on a Russian base in the Donetsk region. He did not give further details.

The head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, concurred. In a post on Telegram, he said that some North Koreans had been killed in Ukraine. His organization is part of the National Security and Defense Council.

All this comes in the wake of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia for a summit with President Vladimir Putin where the two men bolstered their deepening ties with a secret arms deal. It was reported that, among other things, it called for Pyongyang to send construction and engineering forces to Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine for rebuilding work. There was no indication of how many personnel would be involved or the exact nature of their work.

The increasing evidence of North Korean troops in Ukraine marks a big escalation. Foreigners have fought as mercenaries for Russia, “but if North Koreans are on the ground it would mark the first time a foreign government has sent troops in uniform to support Moscow’s war,” the Guardian noted

“North Korea is likely to deploy members of its regular armed forces to Ukraine in support of Russia, South Korea’s defense chief said Tuesday, in the latest sign of deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow…

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Biden, Harris Speak With Netanyahu To Discuss Attacking Iran

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday to discuss Israel’s plans to attack Iran in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage fired at Israel last week.

Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to multiple Israeli escalations, including the assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Israeli officials told Axios that Israel’s retaliation would likely involve airstrikes on Iranian military sites coupled with covert operations similar to the Haniyeh assassination.

NBC News reported on Tuesday that the US was considering supporting Israel’s attack with direct airstrikes of its own, although US officials said intelligence support was more likely. The US has also committed to defending Israel from any Iranian response.

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Congress MIA on Possible U.S. War with Iran

When asked what the U.S. response might be to the Iranian airstrikes on Israel last week, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan suggested it was Washington’s war, too.

“We have made clear that there will be consequences, severe consequences, for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” Sullivan said during a press briefing at the White House.

To which Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) fumed on X: “Work with Israel? Excuse me, the Constitution requires you to work with Congress!”

Two days later, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) weighed in on the same platform. “Any offensive action by the U.S. against Iran would be unconstitutional without a Congressional Declaration of War,” he wrote.

Nevertheless, as talk turns to the kind of retaliation Israel might deliver against Iran for its 200 ballistic missile attacks (which Israel and U.S. both claim were “ineffective”), it is becoming clear that the U.S. might play a direct role. That was not refuted this week when Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called his counterpart Yoav Gallant (he was to meet with him in Washington today, but the confab has been postponed): “I confirmed the United States commitment to Israel’s security and shared that the United States is well postured across the region to defend Israel and protect U.S. personnel and facilities.” 

Even more to the point, CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik Kurilla met with Gallant in Israel and had this to say:

We discussed ongoing Iranian-backed threats to the region and efforts to stabilize the region, ensure Israel’s security, and deter Iran’s malign and reckless activities, Before departing, I reiterated the strength of our ironclad military-to-military commitment between CENTCOM and the Israeli Defense Forces.

In back-to-back radio interviews with Brian Thomas on October 2, Massie and Andrew Napolitano expressed their concern that we may wake up tomorrow and find that the Biden administration had made the executive decision to take the nation to war. “You won’t see a declaration of war because Congress doesn’t want to embarrass itself. It’ll just look the other way while the president does whatever the hell he or she wants. And that’s, to me, just frightening,” charged Napolitano.

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A Year of War in the Middle East Cost Americans Nearly $23 Billion

War is not cheap, especially not the past year of Middle Eastern wars. While Israelis, Palestinians, Lebanese, and others pay with their lives by the tens of thousands, Americans are paying much of the financial cost of keeping the violence going.

A new study by the Costs of War Project at Brown University pinned down exactly what that cost is: at least $22.76 billion from October 7, 2023, to September 30, 2024. The bulk of the money, $17.9 billion, was spent on U.S. aid to the Israeli military—both financial grants given to Israel to purchase weapons, and the cost of replacing munitions such as artillery shells sent directly from American stockpiles to the Israeli army.

“The United States can walk and chew gum at the same time, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters on October 13, 2023. “U.S. security assistance to Israel will flow in at the speed of war.”

But the U.S. military itself has also burned through expensive ammunition dealing with the spillover of the war into Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

The study only counts the direct burden on the U.S. military budget. It doesn’t include indirect costs, “such as increased U.S. security assistance to Egypt, Saudi Arabia or any other countries, and costs to the commercial airline industry and to U.S. consumers.” Nor does it count the $1 billion in U.S. humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

And the study’s time frame doesn’t include the ongoing Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, which prompted even more U.S. military deployments to the region, or Iran’s October 1 missile attack on Israeli military bases. During the latter incident, the U.S. Navy says it fired “about a dozen interceptors” at the Iranian missiles. “Assuming they were SM-3 interceptors, that represents the production run for an entire year, at a cost of about $400 million total,” Middlebury Institute professor Jeffrey Lewis noted on social media.

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Inside the State Department’s Weapons Pipeline to Israel

In late January, as the death toll in Gaza climbed to 25,000 and droves of Palestinians fled their razed cities in search of safety, Israel’s military asked for 3,000 more bombs from the American government. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew, along with other top diplomats in the Jerusalem embassy, sent a cable to Washington urging State Department leaders to approve the sale, saying there was no potential the Israel Defense Forces would misuse the weapons.

The cable did not mention the Biden administration’s public concerns over the growing civilian casualties, nor did it address well-documented reports that Israel had dropped 2,000-pound bombs on crowded areas of Gaza weeks earlier, collapsing apartment buildings and killing hundreds of Palestinians, many of whom were children.

Lew was aware of the issues. Officials say his own staff had repeatedly highlighted attacks where large numbers of civilians died. Homes of the embassy’s own Palestinian employees had been targeted by Israeli airstrikes.

Still, Lew and his senior leadership argued that Israel could be trusted with this new shipment of bombs, known as GBU-39s, which are smaller and more precise. Israel’s air force, they asserted, had a “decades-long proven track record” of avoiding killing civilians when using the American-made bomb and had “demonstrated an ability and willingness to employ it in [a] manner that minimizes collateral damage.”

While that request was pending, the Israelis proved those assertions wrong. In the months that followed, the Israeli military repeatedly dropped GBU-39s it already possessed on shelters and refugee camps that it said were being occupied by Hamas soldiers, killing scores of Palestinians. Then, in early August, the IDF bombed a school and mosque where civilians were sheltering. At least 93 died. Children’s bodies were so mutilated their parents had trouble identifying them.

Weapons analysts identified shrapnel from GBU-39 bombs among the rubble.

In the months before and since, an array of State Department officials urged that Israel be completely or partially cut off from weapons sales under laws that prohibit arming countries with a pattern or clear risk of violations. Top State Department political appointees repeatedly rejected those appeals.

Government experts have for years unsuccessfully tried to withhold or place conditions on arms sales to Israel because of credible allegations that the country had violated Palestinians’ human rights using American-made weapons.

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Israel to Establish Jewish-Only Settlements in Northern Gaza as Annexation Moves Forward

Israel has set its sights on a potential annexation of northern Gaza, framing it as a “closed military zone.” This comes one year after the same area endured an all-out ground assault. Coupled with Israel’s newly established “buffer zone” and the occupation of two corridors in central and southern Gaza, the territory is being gradually eroded.

In late October 2023, Israel launched its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, concentrating primarily on the northern portion of the besieged enclave. At the same time, Israel issued demands for medical staff at all major hospitals to abandon their facilities.

It then released CGI imagery depicting a “Hamas headquarters” under al-Shifa Hospital, which was later debunked after the medical facility was bombed and invaded. It had also ordered some 1.1 million civilians to flee towards the South, where “safe zones” were said to be located. Today, Israel has again shifted its focus onto northern Gaza, ordering the civilian population to flee and signaling to the remaining staff of the Kamal Adwan, Indonesian and Al-Awda Hospitals that they should immediately evacuate or be subjected to consequences of another military assault.

Israel has now coupled its invasion of the Jabalia Refugee Camp with speculation that the government is moving forward with a plan reportedly considered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in secret meetings back in September. This plan, publicly supported by certain Israeli members of the Knesset and former military officials, involves seizing northern Gaza and declaring it a “closed military zone.”

According to Haaretz, Netanyahu’s administration is now preparing to enter the “next phase” of its war on Gaza, which could result in the de facto annexation of the area north of the Netzarim Corridor. This corridor, which has been occupied by the Israeli military, effectively splits the Gaza Strip in half. It played a crucial role in the breakdown of previous ceasefire talks, as Israel refused to agree to a permanent withdrawal from the area.

The possibility of allowing Jewish settlers to establish colonies in northern Gaza is also being discussed. Since January, the settler movement has held conferences promoting this topic, signaling growing support for the idea.

Additionally, on May 6, after Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal, the Israeli military immediately invaded the Rafah Crossing in southern Gaza. The invasion continued until Israel’s forces occupied the entire Palestine-Egypt border area, known as the Philadelphia Corridor. This, along with the destruction of infrastructure and agricultural land on Gaza’s outskirts over the past year to create a new “buffer zone,” has effectively reduced Gaza into an even smaller enclave. Over 1.5 million people are now crammed into overcrowded, unsanitary tent cities.

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