Tag: nuclear weapons

The Algorithm Behind IAEA Iran Nuke Allegations: ‘Minority Report for Uranium’

On May 31, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) disclosed that there were 408.6 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, including 166.6 kg located at the Fordow nuclear site in Iran, issuing a caution regarding a possible “nine-bomb” breakout. According to Reuters, which reviewed the IAEA confidential report, the UN nuclear watchdog concluded that “three locations (Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad), and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear programme carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material.” This report eventually led to a censure on June 6 (with a vote of 19–3), thereby facilitating Israel’s strike on June 12. A separate IAEA report sent to UNSC member states indicated that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to around 60% purity has risen by 50% to 408.6 kg, nearing the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material. The IAEA stated this quantity could potentially produce nine nuclear weapons if further enriched.  What wasn’t explained is how the IAEA came to these conclusions with zero evidence to back up their allegations…

On June 12, 2025, Israel initiated “Operation Rising Lion,” aimed at Iran’s Natanz nuclear site and the heavily fortified Fordow bunker, leading to numerous fatalities, among them two IRGC commanders and one nuclear scientist. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quick to characterise Israel’s unprovoked strike as a direct assault on the heart of Iran’s nuclear aspirations. Meanwhile, President Trump, with the backing of CENTCOM’s General Kurilla, cautioned of dire repercussions.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei Hamaneh’s response was immediate, with Tehran strongly criticising the UN nuclear watchdog, accusing its head, Rafael Grossi, of bias and alleging IAEA alignment with Israel amidst Tel Aviv’s aggression on Iran. Hamaneh’s allegations arose following Grossi’s statement, which unfortunately came too late,  that the regulatory body lacked any evidence of a coordinated attempt by Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

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Where Is Iran’s Uranium? Top Secret Leaked US Intel Says Core Nuclear Components ‘Intact’

Where is Iran’s Uranium? Truce Highlights Mystery Over Stockpile… that’s Bloomberg’s latest headline over the ‘biggest mystery’ that remains in the war. There’s also the pressing question of whether Trump’s massive airstrikes from B-2 bombers actually truly destroyed the facilities and these stockpiles. 

The Iranians aren’t dumb, and likely took drastic steps to further protect, conceal, or likely move these enriched stockpiles – some 400kg according to most reports – as wave after wave of Israeli warplanes hit Iran, significantly before the US sent its bombers this past weekend. It appears core components are still intact – though Iran has long maintained it is merely for peaceful nuclear energy development. 

The NY Times is currently reporting that the US operation merely set Iran’s nuclear program back by a few months. And further:

US BOMBS DIDN’T COLLAPSE UNDERGROUND IRANIAN NUKE BUILDINGS: NYT

Big media allegations, based on US officials and an intel assessment, that the Iranians moved their enriched uranium.

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Report: Initial US Intelligence Assessment Says US Didn’t Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Sites

CNN reported on Tuesday that an initial US intelligence assessment has found that the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites didn’t destroy the core components of the sites and likely set back the nuclear program by only a few months.

The assessment was prepared by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and was based on a battle damage assessment from US Central Command, and it could change as the US gathers more intelligence. “So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” a source told CNN.

The report also said that the US strikes didn’t destroy Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, and the centrifuges were largely “intact.” The assessment contradicts President Trump’s claims that the bombing of the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites “totally obliterated” the facilities.

The White House confirmed the existence of the assessment but said it didn’t agree with the findings. “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” Leavitt added.

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Where is Iran’s Uranium? Top Secret Leaked US Intel Says Core Nuclear Components ‘Intact’

Where is Iran’s Uranium? Truce Highlights Mystery Over Stockpile… that’s Bloomberg’s latest headline over the ‘biggest mystery’ that remains in the war. There’s also the pressing question of whether Trump’s massive airstrikes from B-2 bombers actually truly destroyed the facilities and these stockpiles. 

The Iranians aren’t dumb, and likely took drastic steps to further protect, conceal, or likely move these enriched stockpiles – some 400kg according to most reports – as wave after wave of Israeli warplanes hit Iran, significantly before the US sent its bombers this past weekend. It appears core components are still intact – though Iran has long maintained it is merely for peaceful nuclear energy development. 

The NY Times is currently reporting that the US operation merely set Iran’s nuclear program back by a few months.

And early emerging satellite open-source intelligence also points to the stockpile having not been destroyed, which contradicts the current ‘victory lap’ claims being made by President Trump and some of his top officials. Below is fresh CNN reporting based on an assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA):

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear ambitions “have been obliterated.”

One unnamed defense official quoted in the report says centrifuges are largely “intact.” And more based on the apparently ‘Top Secret’ leaked DIA intel report:

“So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” this person added.

The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but said they disagreed with it.

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Wait, Why Is Israel Allowed To Have Nukes?

Among U.S. politicians, there’s one consistent narrative you’ll hear repeated over and over. Iran, the story goes, must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran is unstable and untrustworthy; Iran is theocratic; Iran is evil. Supposedly serious adults, like Senator Ted Cruz, will use the words “the bad guys” to describe the country, like three-year-olds playing with action figures. And because Iranians are “the bad guys,” it’s supposedly legitimate to attack and kill them in order to prevent them from ever getting that terrifying nuke. Donald Trump is considering that very move now, posting in all-caps that “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” and threatening to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. On Twitter, JD Vance echoes Trump, threatening “action to end Iranian enrichment.” But it’s not just Republicans. Trump and Vance have been egged on by their ostensible enemy, Democratic minority leader Chuck Schumer, who recently condemned the president for attempting nuclear negotiations, calling him a “chicken” who would “let Iran get away with everything.” John Fetterman, the most bellicose member of the Democratic caucus, just comes out and says it: “I really hope the president finally does bomb and destroy the Iranians.” Both of them have repeated the “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon” mantra to justify beating the drum for war. 

But there’s a sword of Damocles hanging over this whole situation, one nobody wants to acknowledge. If the possibility that Iran might get a nuclear weapon is so scary, why do none of our leaders seem to be worried about Israel, which already has a secretive nuclear arsenal of its own, and is acting more violently unstable by the day? 

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How the US and Israel Used Rafael Grossi To Hijack the IAEA and Start a War on Iran

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), allowed the IAEA to be used by the United States and Israel – an undeclared nuclear weapons state in long-term violation of IAEA rules – to manufacture a pretext for war on Iran, despite his agency’s own conclusion that Iran had no nuclear weapons program.

On June 12th, based on a damning report by Grossi, a slim majority of the IAEA Board of Governors voted to find Iran in non-compliance with its obligations as an IAEA member. Of the 35 countries represented on the Board, only 19 voted for the resolution, while 3 voted against it, 11 abstained and 2 did not vote.

The United States contacted eight board member governments on June 10th to persuade them to either vote for the resolution or not to vote. Israeli officials said they saw the U.S. arm-twisting for the IAEA resolution as a significant signal of U.S. support for Israel’s war plans, revealing how much Israel valued the IAEA resolution as diplomatic cover for the war.

The IAEA board meeting was timed for the final day of President Trump’s 60-day ultimatum to Iran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement. Even as the IAEA board voted, Israel was loading weapons, fuel and drop-tanks on its warplanes for the long flight to Iran and briefing its aircrews on their targets. The first Israeli air strikes hit Iran at 3 a.m. that night.

On June 20th, Iran filed a formal complaint against Director General Grossi with the UN Secretary General and the UN Security Council for undermining his agency’s impartiality, both by his failure to mention the illegality of Israel’s threats and uses of force against Iran in his public statements and by his singular focus on Iran’s alleged violations.

The source of the IAEA investigation that led to this resolution was a 2018 Israeli intelligence report that its agents had identified three previously undisclosed sites in Iran where Iran had conducted uranium enrichment prior to 2003. In 2019, Grossi opened an investigation, and the IAEA eventually gained access to the sites and detected traces of enriched uranium.

Despite the fateful consequences of his actions, Grossi has never explained publicly how the IAEA can be sure that Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency or its Iranian collaborators, such as the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (or MEK), did not put the enriched uranium in those sites themselves, as Iranian officials have suggested.

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Satellite images undermine Trump’s claim that Iran’s atomic sites were destroyed

President Donald Trump’s decision to order US forces to attack three key Iranian nuclear installations may have sabotaged the Islamic Republic’s known atomic capabilities, but it’s also created a monumental new challenge to work out what’s left and where. 

Mr Trump said heavily fortified sites were “totally obliterated” late on June 21, but independent analysis has yet to verify that claim. Rather than yielding a quick win, the strikes have complicated the task of tracking uranium and ensuring Iran doesn’t build a weapon, according to three people who follow the country’s nuclear programme.

International Atomic Energy Agency monitors remain in Iran and were inspecting more than one site a day before Israel started the bombing campaign on June 13.

They are still trying to assess the extent of damage, and while military action might be able to destroy Iran’s declared facilities, it also provides an incentive for Iran to take its program underground.

Mr Trump dispatched B-2 stealth jets laden with Massive Ordnance Penetrators, known as GBU-57 bombs, to attempt to destroy Iran’s underground uranium-enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow.

Satellite images taken on June 22 of Fordow and distributed by Maxar Technologies show new craters, possible collapsed tunnel entrances and holes on top of a mountain ridge.

They also show that a large support building on the Fordow site, which operators may use to control ventilation for the underground enrichment halls, remained undamaged. There were no radiation releases from the site, the IAEA reported. 

New pictures of Natanz show a new crater about 5.5 metres in diametre. Maxar said in a statement that the new hole was visible in the dirt directly over a part of the underground enrichment facility.

The image doesn’t offer conclusive evidence that the attack breached the underground site, buried 40 metres under ground and reinforced with an 8-metre think concrete and steel shell.

US Air Force General Dan Caine told a news conference earlier on June 22 that an assessment of “final battle damage will take some time.”

IAEA inspectors, meanwhile, haven’t been able to verify the location of the Persian Gulf country’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium for more than a week. Iranian officials acknowledged breaking IAEA seals and moving it to an undisclosed location. 

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Rubio says it’s ‘irrelevant’ whether Iran was actively pursuing a nuke

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday it’s “irrelevant’’ whether the US had intelligence that Iran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapon before bombing it.

Rubio said the mere fact that Iran had “everything they need to build nuclear weapons” justified President Trump’s decision to take action against the theocratic regime.

“That’s irrelevant,” Rubio told CBS’ “Face the Nation” when pressed about US intelligence on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “They have everything they need to build a weapon.”

Earlier this year, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified, “The IC [intelligence community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”

President Trump has split with that assessment, and Gabbard has since contended her words were taken out of context and highlighted other portions of her testimony in which she warned about Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.

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What do we know about Israel’s own nuclear weapons?

Donald Trump has repeated in recent days, often in capital letters on his Truth Social account, that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. 

His view is shared by Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, who has said that Israel’s surprise attack on Iran, which has killed hundreds since 13 June, is a pre-emptive measure to stop Iran from creating a nuclear weapon. 

Iran denies it is trying to produce nuclear arms, and that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes.

It is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which says that states that do not already have nuclear weapons cannot obtain them. 

The NPT gives the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the power to monitor and verify that non-nuclear states are complying.

Last week, the watchdog said that Iran had breached its obligations – an action Tehran strongly condemned, and claimed provided a pretext for Israel’s surprise assault.

But unlike Iran, Israel has not signed the NPT, and is one of only five countries not to be party to the 1968 treaty. This means that the IAEA has no way to monitor or verify Israel’s nuclear arsenal.

Little is known about Israel’s nuclear programme, which it has a policy of neither confirming nor denying.

However, declassified documents, investigative research and whistleblower revelations from the 1980s have pointed to what it has.

What nuclear weapons does Israel possess?

Israel is one of nine countries that are known to have nuclear weapons, along with the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea.  

It is believed to possess around 90 nuclear warheads and enough plutonium to produce around 200 more nuclear weapons, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Israel has between 750 and 1,110kg of plutonium, which would be enough to build 187 to 277 nuclear weapons.

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Report: Pentagon Agency Believes US Needs To Drop A Nuke To Destroy Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Plant

The Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has told US officials that in order to destroy Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant, which is buried deep underground, the US may need to drop a nuclear weapon, The Guardian has reported.

According to the report, Pentagon officials who received the briefing were told that dropping GBU-57s, conventional 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, would not penetrate deep enough underground and that it would only do enough damage to collapse tunnels and bury the facility under rubble.

The officials were told that in order to destroy Fordow completely, the US would likely need to first soften the ground with conventional bombs and then ultimately drop a tactical nuclear weapon from a B2 bomber.

The report said that President Trump is not considering using a nuclear weapon and that the option was not presented to him by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. According to a report from Axios, Trump is casting doubt on the idea that the GBU-57s could do enough damage to destroy the facility.

Israel wants the US to drop the bunker-busting bombs on Fordow since it lacks the capability, but so far, Trump has not given the order for US airstrikes on Iran. The president said on Thursday that he would decide within two weeks, although there are indications that attacks could begin this weekend.

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