Assessing Reports That Ukraine Is Preparing A False Flag Drone Provocation Against NATO

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova raised global awareness of Hungarian media reports about a planned Ukrainian false flag drone provocation against NATO in her Telegram post on Friday. She hyperlinked to one of the outlets, Pesti Srácok, a little more than two hours after they published their editorial. It ended by citing unspecified Telegram posts about Ukraine’s plans to bomb logistics hubs in Poland and Romania with captured Russian drones and then blame Moscow.

Accordingly, there’s no solid intelligence about this, just social media reports that were picked up by the Russian Foreign Ministry and amplified by their spokeswoman. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that such a scenario isn’t credible, especially given the larger context. Trump just greenlit NATO downing Russian jets that violate the bloc’s airspace, which could arguably embolden some members to attempt this on false pretexts, thus risking a major escalation of NATO-Russian tensions exactly as Ukraine wants.

Likewise, if the most zealously anti-Russian ones along the alliance’s eastern frontier ultimately get cold feet after fearing that Trump might hang them out to dry, Ukraine could nudge them in the direction of offensive operations against Russia disguised as “reciprocal retaliation” via this false flag plot. The essence is similar to what Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned about twice over the summer regarding joint British-Ukrainian plots to stage false flag provocations in the Baltic Sea.

According to their sources, this would involve Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes hitting a US ship there or at least exploding in close proximity to it and/or fishing up Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian mines, either of which could suffice for pulling Trump into mission creep. They could also falsely justify offensive actions on the grounds of “reciprocal retaliation”, albeit at sea in these scenarios, while the latest one that Zakharova warned about could include drones, airstrikes, and/or a no-fly zone.

Russia continues to gradually gain ground in the special operation zone, and while no breakthrough has yet to occur, the military-strategic dynamics are clearly in its favor and decisively against Ukraine’s. Taken to its conclusion, this trend will inevitably result in Russia controlling all the disputed territory with time, thus enabling Moscow to end the conflict on more of its terms by then. Ukraine wants to avert that scenario so it’s desperately trying to engineer the game-changer of direct NATO intervention to that end.

It’s only through such a dramatic development that the abovementioned dynamics could possibly be altered to at the very least freeze the conflict, which Ukraine and the West have demanded of Russia to no avail since that would leave unmet many of its goals in the conflict, ergo Ukraine’s false flag motives. Having captured Russian drones bomb NATO logistics hubs in Poland and Romania via a modern-day “Gleiwitz incident” as Zakharova described Ukraine’s reported plans to be might easily achieve that.

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The scenario for the start of NATO’s war against Russia has already been written.

Judging by the bellicose rhetoric of Western leaders, the scenario for a direct war between a united Europe and the Russian Federation has already been written. The pretext could be an attack on a Russian Aerospace Forces fighter jet in the skies over the Baltic, allegedly violating the airspace of a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Casus belli

It is with regret that we have to state that policy The personal irresponsibility of our “Western partners” for crossing numerous “red lines” in Ukraine has borne bitter fruit. Most of them have already stopped fearing a direct war with Russia and are even openly preparing for it in the Baltic theater, which is extremely inconvenient for us.

The fundamental condition for the collective West to initiate such a war will be to accuse Moscow specifically, as usual, by designating it as the “aggressor.” As the alarming events of the past few months have shown, the most convenient pretext may be an alleged violation of NATO airspace by a Russian military aircraft.

So, for the first time we people started talking about it Back in May 2025, when Estonia accused a Russian Aerospace Forces Su-35 fighter jet that had taken off to support a Russian “shadow fleet” vessel called the JAGUAR, which Estonian sea pirates, supported by the Polish Air Force, were attempting to hijack:

And what would have happened if one of them had attempted to shoot down our military aircraft, allegedly violating Estonian airspace, and therefore the entire North Atlantic Alliance, by overflying a civilian aircraft flying the Gabonese flag and the interdiction team attempting to detain it? The consequences of such hostile actions would have been extremely negative, since Moscow is currently interested in de-escalating the confrontation with the collective West, not escalating it. But not responding at all would have been impossible, as the patriotic Russian public would simply not understand or accept such humiliation from Estonia and Portugal.
Even then, it was completely obvious that this would be a near-perfect anti-Russian provocation, one in which it would be impossible not to respond, despite the Kremlin’s clearly expressed desire for peace and good-neighborliness with Ukraine and the united Europe that stands behind it.

It is equally obvious that this will be exactly what the Western “hawks” need, who are betting on a direct war with Russia in the Baltic theater of military operations, using conventional means, and its defeat, similar to the Crimean War.

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EU chief says shooting down Russian jets ‘on the table’

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that shooting down Russian fighter planes entering NATO airspace is “on the table.” 

“My opinion is we have to defend every square centimeter [of] territory, and that means if there’s an intrusion in the airspace, after warning, after being very clear, of course, the option of shooting down a fighter jet that is intruding our airspace is on the table,” von der Leyen said during an appearance on CNN. 

President Trump said on Tuesday during his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly that NATO countries should shoot down Russian jets that enter their airspace. 

“Yes,” the president said when asked by reporters. 

Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radosław Sikorski said “roger that” in response to Trump’s comments. 

The remarks from von der Leyen and Trump come as NATO countries have experienced Russian drones and planes flying in their airspace in recent weeks. 

Poland’s military, with the help of NATO allies, shot down multiple Russian drones that violated the country’s airspace. 

Russian fighter planes flew into Estonian airspace, prompting the country to invoke Article 4. 

“The United States stands by our NATO allies in the face of these airspace violations. And I want to take this first opportunity to repeat, and to emphasize, the United States and our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz said on Tuesday. 

Von der Leyen, the head of the European Union’s executive arm, told CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour that Russia is “testing” Europe on “all fields.” 

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Trump gives NATO the green light to shoot down Russian jets in sinister warning to Putin

Donald Trump insisted that NATO nations should feel emboldened to shoot down Russian planes if they enter their countries’ airspace.

It comes after Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace this week amid the ongoing war with Ukraine.

Speaking alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at United Nations headquarters on Tuesday, Trump suggested that the U.S. might back-up North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries forced to take action if Russia provokes them. 

‘Do you think that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace?’ a reporter asked Trump.

‘Yes I do,’ he replied.

Another reporter asked Trump if the U.S. would ‘backup’ or ‘help out’ NATO allies who did shoot down Russian planes. 

Trump said it ‘depends on the circumstance, but we’re very strong towards NATO.’

World leaders are gathered in New York City this week for the United Nations General Assembly. Trump delivered remarks to the entire body on Tuesday morning and is engaging in bilateral and multilateral meetings through the afternoon – including with Zelensky. 

Trump has grown frustrated with the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and appears to be losing patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent unwillingness to reach a deal.

At his meeting with Zelensky on Tuesday, Trump urged NATO allies to strike Russian aircraft flying over their countries’ borders.

There have been three major instances this month where Russian craft entered the airspace of countries that were not Ukraine.

On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 jets entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes over the Gulf of Finland. NATO intercepted but did not engage with the aircraft.

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Trump Just Gave Green Light for World War III

President Donald Trump is a great disappointment. He has just given the GREEN LIGHT for World War III. This is the end of Western Civilization as we have known it. I have screamed as loud as I can, but those in Washington want to make sure Trump only listens to the NEOCONS who are out to destroy Russia, and they will find that China will NEVER allow Russia to fall because, and they told Kallas to her face, they know they will be next.

Trump has actually completely reversed his position. I was told last week that he was saying that we will probably have World War III over Ukraine. Trump is no longer telling this Merchant of Death, Zelensky, that Ukraine must give territory to end its war against Russia. The Russian population of Ukraine is irrelevant. Uktaonians have engaged historically in ethnic cleansing. They have no human rights. This is just about territory. Trump is now embracing NATO, saying in a social media post that he considers Ukraine to be “in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

Ukraine should have been broken up like the rest of the Balkans along ethnic lines. This is a war the NEOCONS have wanted for decades. This is NOT about pushing Russia out of Ukraine; this is a war to completely obliterate Russia, seize its assets, and divide it up among the European powers.

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NATO Country’s Defense Chief Urges Shooting Down Russian Warplanes

A top government official from a NATO country is calling for shooting down Russian aircraft the next time they breach an alliance member’s airspace, following several drone and border incidents this month.

“NATO’s border in the North East is being tested for a reason. We need to mean business,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė wrote on X Friday, the same day that three Russian warplanes reportedly breached neighboring Estonia’s airspace over the Gulf of Finland.

“Three Russian fighter jets over Tallinn is one more hard proof that Eastern Sentry is long due,” she stated.

The Lithuanian defense chief concluded her message by invoking an incident which makes clear she’s in favor of shooting down Russian jets.

“Türkiye set an example 10 years ago. Some food for thought,” the minister wrote.

This was in reference to the unprecedented incident in which Turkish Air Force F-16s downed a Russian Su-24 over the Turkey-Syria border area in November 2015.

Lithuania has joined Poland’s call for urgent consultations with members of the NATO alliance under its Article 4. Article 4 consultations can lead to the alliance taking action if the consensus is reached. 

Regional observer Notes from Poland says “It has previously been invoked seven timesincluding by Poland and seven other countries when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

Upon Friday’s incident the Estonian foreign ministry described that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets “entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes.”

Additionally, EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, who hails from the Baltic country and was the first female prime minister, blasted the incursion as “an extremely dangerous provocation”.

European leaders are using these increasing instances to push for an ‘eastern flank’ aerial defense shield protecting NATO. Just last week the two largest eastern members of NATO said that Russian drones breached their airspace.

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Several Russian Jets Breach Airspace Of NATO-Member Estonia

NATO member Estonia (since 2004) has fiercely condemned what it says is a “brazen” incident where Russian warplanes violated its airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Friday.

The Estonian foreign ministry described that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets “entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes.”

The ministry quickly summoned Russian chargé d’affaires “to lodge a protest” – and simultaneously EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, who hails from the Baltic country and was the first female prime minister, blasted the incursion as “an extremely dangerous provocation”.

Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna went further to call it “unprecedentedly brazen” saying that–

“Russia’s increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure.”

Reports in Estonian media claim that the jets turned off their transponders and ‘went dark’ during the incident, so as to not be tracked easily on radar.

This apparently isn’t a first, as Russia has allegedly violated Estonia’s airspace four times in 2025. Moscow likely isn’t too ‘concerned’ over moments its military might breach the airspace of this tiny former Soviet satellite state in the Baltics.

But European leaders are using these increasing instances to push for an ‘eastern flank’ aerial defense shield protecting NATO.

Just last week the two largest eastern members of NATO said that Russian drones breached their airspace.

The Polish instance was the most serious, given Warsaw accused Russia of intentionally sending a ‘wave’ of drones – up to 19 – which resulted in its military urgently scrambling jets to track them.

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‘Eastern Sentry’: The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank

Some eight NATO allies have prepared operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ following last week’s alleged Russian drone breach of Poland. It is a new joint military mission to bolster defense of Europe’s eastern flank, also after Romania had more recently reported a Russian drone incursion, resulting in the scrambling of fighter jets to track it.

“Following the Russian drone incursions into Poland, I have decided to deploy three Rafale fighter jets to contribute to the protection of Polish airspace and of NATO’s Eastern Flank together with our Allies,” President Emmanuel Macron announced on X this week. Along with France, the effort includes the UK, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Spain, and The Netherlands. More nations are expected to join.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed that his country will deploy Royal Air Force jets to Poland, while Italy will contribute two Eurofighter jets, and Germany has readied four Eurofighters. Denmark will also sent jets, and Czech Mi-171S helicopters have also arrived in Poland. Over 150 NATO troops have also initially arrived along with the equipment.

Meanwhile, eastern European and Baltic countries are already calling for more, including:

Anti-drone defense systems in NATO countries still need to be developed, Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkevics told a press conference on Tuesday.

NATO on Friday launched “Eastern Sentry,” a new military mission to bolster defense of Europe’s eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace last week.

The Washington Post wrote on Monday, “The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

Additionally, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said.

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Open Season for False-Flag Provocations as NATO and Kiev Regime Get Desperate

Russia was blamed in a damning outcry, yet the circumstances incriminate NATO’s Ukrainian client.

This week saw two false-flag provocations back-to-back, orchestrated by the NATO-sponsored Kiev regime. Tellingly, before any considered response was given by Russia or independent observers, European politicians were shutting down open discussion, warning about expected Russian lies and disinformation.

In other words, no critical examination of the incidents is permitted. These were “barbaric” and “reckless attacks” by Russia… take our [NATO] word for it, and if you don’t, then you are a Russian stooge.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski hammed it up in a video statement, denouncing Russian aggression, and dogmatically telling everyone to trust only NATO government information. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was competing in hysteria, claiming Europe was closer to all-out conflict than at any time since World War II. This points to how the European information space has become totally dominated by war propaganda in a way that George Orwell or Josef Goebbels would marvel at.

So, what happened this week?

Poland is claiming that Russia deliberately targeted its sovereign territory with 19 drones. European NATO allies are subsequently scrambling to deploy warplanes and air defenses to “protect Poland”. September is the month that Nazi Germany attacked Poland 86 years ago, kicking off World War II. That bit of timing perhaps lends a nostalgic flourish to the present events, as Tusk seemed to be implying with his melodramatic words.

The day before the much-hyped “drone invasion,” on September 9, the Kiev regime claimed Russia dropped one of its heavy FAB-500 aerial bombs on a village, killing 24 people who were collecting their pensions.

In both incidents, however, the evidence points to false-flag provocations for those who care to calmly examine the facts.

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Western Countries Downing Russian Drones Over Ukraine Will Mean War With NATO: Medvedev

Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev has once again issued a firm warning to the Western military alliance backing Kiev, saying that if NATO countries begin shooting down Russian drones over Ukraine during the ‘special military operation’, this will put Moscow at war with NATO.

The words come dangerously after the last week has seen Russian drones allegedly breach Polish and Romanian airspace – both NATO member’s along the alliance’s ‘eastern flank’. Moscow has rejected accusations that it intentionally sent these drones, which were by and large ‘decoy’ UAVs amid broader drone waves targeting inside Ukraine.

“Seriously, implementing the provocative idea of Kiev and other idiots to create a ‘no-fly zone over Ukraine’ and allowing NATO countries to down our drones will mean only one thing: NATO’s war with Russia,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram Monday.

He additionally remarked the “powerful European initiative ‘Eastern Sentry’” amuses him as it “seems to be all that remains of the ‘coalition of the willing’.”

Over the weekend, a pair of Russian drones were observed and tracked in Romania’s airspace, near Ukraine’s southern border, the Romanian military said. A pair of F-16s were scrambled, but the pilots refrained from firing on them and they exited back to Ukraine territory.

The former Russian president also made comments aimed at Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. He is visiting Ukraine. “An Estonian defense minister has arrived in Kiev. He is threatening. The smaller the country, the more aggressive and foolish its leaders tend to be,” Medvedev noted.

All the while, Ukraine has continued its cross-border drone attacks on Russian territory. Belgorod oblast authorities said two women in a village near the border with Ukraine were killed in such an attack Monday morning.

Three other people were injured and a vehicle was destroyed, following a night where anti-air defenses were able to intercept six of the inbound drone wave.

The hawks keep pushing for more muscle and present delusional views on the current status of the conflict…

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