U.S. Poured Billions of Military Aid Into Lebanon. Now Israel Threatens to Invade.

Attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, the militia and political party based just across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, are fueling fears that a wider regional conflict may erupt any day.

Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia group loosely allied with Hamas, has been in a low-level war with Israel since the conflict in Gaza began last October. Hezbollah, which is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles, has repeatedly emphasized that attacks will continue as long as the war persists.

Over the weekend, a rocket attack that the U.S. and Israel said originated in Lebanon killed at least 12 civilians in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. The Israeli foreign minister said that the attack “crossed all red lines,” and said “the moment of all-out war against Hezbollah and Lebanon” is approaching. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the strike.

On Monday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken cautioned Israeli President Isaac Herzog about ramping up its war with Hezbollah in response on a call, according to State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

But the conflict has been escalating for weeks. Israel has increased airstrikes aimed at the group. Current and former Israeli officials have also spoken publicly about shifting their attention from Hamas to the more powerful Hezbollah.

After Israeli officials warned of the possibility of launching a war that would send Lebanon “back to the Stone Age,” the Biden administration intensified diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions and forestall a conflict that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said could have “terrible consequences for the Middle East.”

The low-level war has created a tinderbox that could explode into a regional conflict involving Iran, Iraq, Syria, TurkeyYemen and, to an even greater extent than now, the United States.

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Lebanon Prepares For Total War As Ex-Pats Evacuate, IDF Prepares Response

The Lebanese government is preparing for an Israeli military response against Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy army which occupies the halls of power in the Middle Eastern state, and who fired a large ballistic missile which killed a dozen Druze children playing football in the Golan Heights yesterday.

The funerals are today.

Foreigners are being told to leave Lebanon immediately due to the likely break-out of all-out war. France joined Norway in calling on its citizens to evacuate. The airport in Beirut is packed as many ex-patriots are fleeing the country.

In Israel, the Port of Ashdod is getting prepared to serve as an alternative to the Port of Haifa in case of war, reported Amir Tsarfati.

The military staff is meeting to coordinate and plan a response to the missile attack in northern Israel. CDM has long been reporting on the likely break-out of war in the north of The Jewish State. The conflict is expected to be bloody on both sides as Hezbollah is a much stronger fighting force than Hamas in Gaza, and controls hundreds of thousands of rockets which can severely damage Israeli and population.

Progressive political elements in Israel are said to be preventing military plans for retribution at this point. Approval is in the balance but likely to happen soon, as the political pressure inside Israel is great, from Arabs especially, whose children were murdered.

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Pentagon chief recommends avoiding Israel-Hezbollah war but sends fighter jets to Israel anyway

For U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin an immediate diplomatic solution is needed to prevent a “costly war” between Israel and Lebanon despite “Hezbollah’s provocations.”

“Diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation. We’re urgently seeking a diplomatic agreement that restores lasting calm to Israel’s northern border and enables civilians to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border,” Austin claimed to reporters during a meeting at the Pentagon with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on June 25.

Hezbollah and Israeli forces have exchanged fire on a near-daily basis since the beginning of the war in Gaza, but escalating attacks over the last several weeks have caused growing unease. And the U.S. official blamed the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah’s threats. “Hezbollah’s provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that they do not want and such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians,” Austin told Gallant. “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war with terrible consequences for the Middle East, and so diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation.”

Previously, Gallant suggested Israel pursue a large-scale war against Hezbollah but during the meeting, he said he was “working closely” with Austin to find a diplomatic resolution. However, they also discussed military “readiness in every possible scenario.” Gallant insisted on the threat of nuclear war with Iran, telling Austin that “time is running out.”

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Top Hezbollah commander assassinated by Israeli drone in south Lebanon

An Israeli drone strike in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre killed the commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit on 3 July, Mohammed Naame Nasser, marking the second high-profile assassination of a resistance commander in as many months.

The Aziz Unit reportedly operates in the eastern sector of the Lebanese–Israeli border region.

Israel’s latest provocation inside Lebanese soil comes as border tensions threaten to boil over, with western officials set to meet in the French capital on Wednesday to discuss ways to “defuse” the crisis.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, stressed that the only path to a de-escalation on Israel’s northern border is a full ceasefire in Gaza.

“If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will stop without any discussion,” the Lebanese resistance leader told AP.

“Israel can decide what it wants: limited war, total war, partial war,” Qassem said. “But it should expect that our response and our resistance will not be within a ceiling and rules of engagement set by Israel … If Israel wages the war, it means it doesn’t control its extent or who enters into it.”

Nearly nine months into Israel’s campaign of genocide in Gaza, authorities have recently intensified threats to expand the war against Lebanon in a last-ditch effort to regain control of the northern occupied territories.

Nevertheless, the lack of a clear strategy to disengage from Gaza, on top of a critical manpower and munitions crisis, has deepened rifts between the military and political leaders in Israel. Earlier this week, top security officials told the New York Times (NYT) that they are pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, even if it means “keeping Hamas in power for now.”

On Tuesday, the NYT report received a swift response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Iran vows to protect Hezbollah from Israeli attack

Iran will throw all of its military power behind Hezbollah if Israel launches a full-scale attack on the Lebanon-based Islamist movement, a senior official in Tehran has warned. He added, however, that his country does not want an all-out war in the Middle East.

Tensions between the Jewish state and the Shia group, which has close ties with Iran, reached boiling point after the start of the Hamas-Israel war in October, with the two belligerents exchanging cross-border strikes. However, they have so far managed to avoid a major engagement.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, Kamal Kharrazi, a foreign affairs adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reiterated that Iran is “not interested” in a regional war. He urged the US, Israel’s key ally, to put pressure on West Jerusalem to prevent such escalation.

However, Kharrazi insisted that “all Lebanese people, Arab countries, and members of the axis of resistance will support Lebanon against Israel” if efforts to avoid a major conflict prove unsuccessful. “In that situation, we would have no choice but to support Hezbollah by all means,” he said.

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US Sends Amphibious Assault Ship To Show Support for Israel Amid Lebanon Tensions

The US has deployed an amphibious assault ship to the Middle East to demonstrate support for Israel amid soaring tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border.

The Pentagon announced that the USS Wasp arrived in the eastern Mediterranean Sea last week. The deployment comes amid fears of a full-blown Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon as Israeli forces and Hezbollah continue to trade fire across the border.

A US official told The Associated Press that the deployment was “about deterrence,” but the US show of force could embolden Israel. The US insists it’s working to prevent a war in Lebanon, but Middle East Eye recently reported that Washington conveyed to Lebanon it would ultimately support Israel if it went ahead with an invasion.

The Wasp is carrying a US Marine Corps Expeditionary Unit and is sailing along with the USS Oak Hill, a dock landing ship. US officials told NBC News last week that one purpose of the Wasp’s deployment is to stand by to evacuate Americans in the event that a full-scale war breaks out along the Israel-Lebanon border.

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Report: Israel Plans To Invade Lebanon in the Second Half of July

The German newspaper Bild reported on Monday that Israel is planning to invade Lebanon in the second half of July as Israeli forces and Hezbollah continue to trade fire across the border.

The report, which cited diplomatic sources, said Israel would launch the assault unless Hezbollah stopped firing on northern Israel. But Israeli officials have made clear that’s not enough for them as they are demanding Hezbollah withdraw from the border to areas beyond the Litani River.

The Litani River is about 18 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border, and Israel has said a Hezbollah withdrawal from the area is necessary for Israelis who have evacuated from northern Israel to return to their homes.

Hezbollah’s position is that it won’t stop firing on northern Israel unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza, while Israeli officials have threatened to escalate in Lebanon if they reach a truce with Hamas.

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US prepares to evacuate citizens from Lebanon — NBC

The US Department of Defense is moving its forces closer to the Israeli-Lebanese border to promptly evacuate its citizens from Lebanon if necessary, NBC reported citing sources.

According to the report, Washington fears that Israel may launch a ground operation in Lebanon in the coming weeks.

On Wednesday, USS Wasp multipurpose amphibious assault ship of the US Navy and the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit were redeployed to the Mediterranean. Moreover, USS Oak Hill dock landing ship is also in the area. Besides, US officials remain in touch with allies to jointly coordinate the evacuation if necessary.

It was earlier reported that the Israeli army approved an operational plan for an offensive in Lebanon in mid-June. After the operation against the radical Palestinian movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the country’s authorities expect to simultaneously attack the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is opposed to Israel and regularly shells the country’s territory from the north.

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Israel Creating ‘Dead Zone’ Along Lebanon Border

The nearly nine-month-long war between Israel and Lebanon has prompted the Israel Defense Forces to destroy nearly everything along the Lebanese side of the border. The daily attacks are making the area uninhabitable.

Citing satellite imagery, The Financial Times reports that the IDF use of “aerial bombardment, artillery shelling and the incendiary chemical white phosphorus have made much of the 5 km north of the Blue Line uninhabitable.” Some entire neighborhoods in Lebanon have been systematically leveled.

After the Israeli onslaught on Gaza began, Tel Aviv also got locked into a low-intensity war with Hezbollah. So far, the conflict has been limited to tit-for-tat daily strikes but these have slowly escalated. The fighting has killed hundreds in Lebanon and over 25 Israelis. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced from the border area, and large swaths of southern Lebanon have been decimated.

The IDF has used white phosphorus weapons – and even fireballs slung from trebuchets – to set fire to farms and vegetation. An Israeli official claimed that Tel Aviv was not trying to create a dead zone or buffer area, but rather to clear the area of Hezbollah. “We just want Hezbollah pushed back,” the official said. “We have to ‘clean out’ the area of Hezbollah’s presence.”

Tel Aviv justifies the destruction by claiming that Hezbollah uses civilians as human shields, and Israeli officials make similar arguments about Hamas in Gaza. “Every third home in south Lebanon is used by Hezbollah for weapons storage, training, firing positions, and meeting points for a possible cross-border attack,” a senior Israeli military official told FT.

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Israel Pounds South Lebanon Town With White Phosphorous

Amid growing fear of a full-scale invasion, Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes against the southern Lebanon town of Khiam, using incendiary white phosphorous bombs, according to the National News Agency.

Israel has not commented on the use of white phosphorous in a populated civilian area, nor is it likely to. The extent of any casualties is not known at the present.

In recent weeks, the use of phosphorous, even including flinging fireballs into Lebanon with medieval trebuchets, has become a go-to Israeli strategy. At the time, Israel maintained setting fires was a security measure, clearing brush in the agricultural areas of southern Lebanon.

Employing white phosphorous is not actually illegal, but the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons severely regulates its use against civilian targets. Israel is a signatory to the convention, but in its frequent warfare with neighboring countries, does not appear to view the regulation as restricting its use of the substance.

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