Tag: iran

The Strait of Hormuz: A Constant in Iranian History

The strategic and spiritual resonance of the Strait of Hormuz is deeply woven into Iran’s identity. It represents a profound geographic constant in Iranian history. This narrow waterway has served as a central artery for Persian political and economic power, historical consciousness and culture across millennia.

Whether safeguarding Zoroastrian trade routes under the Sassanids, expelling European powers in the Safavid era, or commanding energy routes today, Iran’s geopolitical identity is fused with this narrow stretch of water.  It is a physical manifestation of sovereignty, insuring that the “Passage of the Palm Groves” and its divine namesake “Ahura Mazda” remains a focal point of global history.

Linguists and historians trace the etymology of “Hormuz” to “Ohrmazd,” the Middle Persian derivation of “Ahura Mazda” (the supreme deity of Zoroastrianism). To ancient Persian monarchs, this body of water was more than a trade route; it was an extension of the imperial cosmic divine order.

In the ancient dialect of southern Iran, the name is believed to have evolved from “Hur-Mogh.”  In the local tongue of Hormozgan, Hur means waterway and Mogh refers to palm trees.  For people who lived there for millennia, the strait was not a military chokepoint, it was simply, “The Passage of the Palm Groves.”

The Strait of Hormuz presents a profound historical paradox. Its name honors the Zoroastrian source of cosmic harmony, Ahura Mazda. Yet today, this narrow chokepoint whose foundational ethos, “humata, hukhta, and huvarshta” (good thoughts, good words, and good deeds), is now the epicenter of severe international geopolitical friction and trade instability.

Long before it became the jugular vein of the modern global economy, the Strait of Hormuz was the sacred and strategic maritime gateway to the Persian empire.

The Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus the Great in 550 BC, was the first imperial power to recognize the strait as a strategic artery to be owned.  Its name is tied to the Sassanian dynasty (224-651 CE), the last great pre-Islamic Persian empire and initiator of Zoroastrianism as a state religion.

During the Sassanian era, its Zoroastrian rulers expanded outward from the Iranian plateau to dominate both the northern and southern shores of the strait.

By commanding the entrance to the Persian Gulf by constructing forts and coastal infrastructure, these ancient kings secured their control over the lucrative maritime trade routes, linking Mesopotamia, the Indian subcontinent and the broader world.

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Graham on Iran: I Want to “Hurt Them More” by Wrecking Oil Industry

Israel-First GOP Senator Lindsey Graham wants President Trump to order more bombing of Iran’s civilian infrastructure and to “hurt them more,” and apparently doesn’t care that Republicans might well lose the midterms because of Trump’s growing unpopularity, largely because of the war in Iran.

As well, Graham told Meet the Press hostess Kristin Welker that Trump is comparable to Winston Churchill because of the president’s telling a reporter he doesn’t much care about Americans’ financial woes, and instead only cares about Israel and Iran’s supposedly obtaining a nuclear device.

Graham said he’d happily “give up” both houses of Congress to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

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U.S. Admits Losing Over 40 Aircraft In War On Iran

A Congressional report released on May 19 revealed that the United States military lost at least 42 aircraft during 40 days of war on Iran.

The report, prepared for Congress using information from the Pentagon, United States Central Command, and defense media outlets, estimated the total cost of the aircraft losses at approximately $2.6 billion. The aerial losses include fighter jets, surveillance aircraft, refueling planes, combat rescue helicopters, and drones.

Among the aircraft destroyed or damaged, according to the document, were four F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, one F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter jet, one A-10 Thunderbolt II attack jet, seven KC-135 Stratotanker refueling planes, and one E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control aircraft.

The report also listed the loss of two MC-130J Commando II special operations transport planes, one HH-60W Jolly Green II special operations helicopter, 24 MQ-9 Reaper combat drones, and one MQ-4C Triton high altitude surveillance naval drone.

Replacing some of the destroyed aircraft could require restarting production lines for systems that are no longer manufactured, the document said.

It also noted that the destruction of an E-3 Sentry could force the Pentagon to revive the cancelled E-7 Wedgetail replacement program at a cost exceeding $2.5 billion.

Analysts cited in the document estimated that total aircraft losses and replacement programs could eventually exceed $7 billion.

The number confirmed by the Congressional report is still short of the 56 U.S. military aircraft documented in Wikipedia’s list of aviation shootdowns and accidents during the Iran war, which only counts losses based on visual evidence or official self-admission.

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Sen. Graham Urges Trump to Renew US Strikes on Iran

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Sunday called on President Donald Trump to renew U.S. military strikes on Iran, arguing that a stalled ceasefire and a closed Strait of Hormuz are strengthening Tehran while inflicting economic pain at home.

“I think the status quo is hurting us all,” Graham told NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” framing continued military pressure, not negotiation, as the faster route to ending the war.

Graham’s appeal landed at a stalemate.

U.S.-Iran talks, mediated by Pakistan, have been suspended since both sides rejected each other’s latest proposals, and no permanent peace deal has been reached since the two countries announced a ceasefire last month.

Graham said the impasse only benefits Tehran.

“The longer the [Strait of Hormuz] is closed, the more we try to pursue a deal that never happens, the stronger Iran gets,” he said.

The senator, a leading proponent of Trump’s military campaign, urged the president to “weaken them further.”

He credited the administration’s strikes as “amazing, militarily.” But, he said, “there’s more targets to be had.”

Graham added that nothing in the conflict so far suggests Iran’s leadership has abandoned what he called the regime’s goal “to terrorize the world, destroy Israel, come after us.”

The closed strait, which before the war carried more than a fifth of the world’s energy supply, has driven oil prices rising higher since the conflict began on Feb. 28.

As of Friday, the average U.S. price of unleaded gas was above $4.50 a gallon, up 51% since the war started.

Graham argued that pressure would ease with force, telling moderator Kristen Welker, “Gas prices will come down when you put Iran in a box.”

Tehran has signaled little appetite for compromise.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday that Iran has “no trust” in the U.S. and would negotiate only if Washington is serious, citing “contradictory messages” from American officials.

The diplomatic freeze coincided with Trump’s return from a multiday summit in China, where he met President Xi Jinping.

Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier he had not asked Beijing for help on Iran. “If he wants to help, that’s great, but we don’t need help,” Trump said, adding that accepting help invites obligations in return.

The dispute carries domestic political stakes.

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Trump Calls Off Planned Military Strikes Against Iran – Says “Full, Large Scale Assault” Is Ready “on a Moment’s Notice”

President Trump announced on Monday that he called off planned strikes against Iran as negotiations to end the war continue.

As The Gateway Pundit reported earlier, US officials said Trump was planning to break the ongoing ceasefire and resume the war after rejecting a Sunday proposal from Iran, which he deemed insufficient.

Trump was expected to hold a meeting with his national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday.

“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” the President wrote on Truth Social.

Trump said on Monday afternoon that the next attack was “scheduled for tomorrow.” However, Middle Eastern leaders asked the President to hold off “in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond,” he added.

“Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached,” Trump wrote.

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Iranian Hostilities Flare Up Again as Drone Strike Sparks Fire Near Abu Dhabi Nuclear Plant

A drone strike sparked a fire near the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday, in the latest sign of continued regional hostilities linked to the Iran conflict.

Authorities in Abu Dhabi said the drone struck an electrical generator outside the nuclear facility’s inner perimeter in the Al Dhafra region.

According to UAE officials, no injuries were reported, radiation levels remained normal, and the plant’s core systems were unaffected.

The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones were launched from the country’s western border.

Two were intercepted, but a third struck the site, causing the fire.

The Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation said the plant continued operating normally, while the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Emirati authorities had informed it that radiation levels remained stable.

“The IAEA is following the situation closely and is in constant contact with the UAE authorities, ready to provide assistance if needed,” the UN nuclear watchdog said.

Footage of such incidents is notoriously scarce because of the UAE’s aggressive crackdown on posting photos or videos that could damage the country’s image as a “safe haven.”

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Hackers possibly linked to Iran breached tank readers at US gas stations: CNN report

Hackers suspected to have ties to Iran may have infiltrated computerized fuel monitoring systems at gas stations across the United States, according to CNN on Friday.

The report said the suspected cyber intrusions targeted automatic tank gauge systems, or ATGs, which are used to track fuel levels and detect leaks in underground storage tanks at gas stations.

The CNN report suggested that federal investigators think the activity was carried out by hackers linked to Iran but officials have not publicly connected the operation to a specific branch of the Iranian government.

U.S. officials told CNN that some of the systems had been connected to the internet without password protection, potentially allowing hackers to access and manipulate digital readings and display settings. 

Investigators warned that falsified readings could hide leaks or create other safety problems.

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Pentagon Draws Up Strike Plans as Trump Weighs Renewed Iran Assault

The Pentagon has prepared plans for a possible renewed military campaign against Iran as President Donald Trump weighs whether to resume strikes following stalled negotiations and mounting tensions in the Middle East.

According to The New York Times, U.S. and Israeli officials have intensified military preparations for the possible return of combat operations as early as next week if diplomatic efforts fail.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled the administration is prepared to escalate.

“We have a plan to escalate if necessary,” Hegseth told lawmakers this week.

Trump, returning from China on Friday, indicated Tehran’s latest peace proposal was a non-starter.

“I looked at it, and if I don’t like the first sentence, I just throw it away,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

The president has repeatedly warned Iran against dragging out negotiations.

“They’re either going to make a deal, or they’re going to be decimated,” Trump said earlier this week. “So, one way or another, we win.”

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“Send Us A Tip”: U.S. Dangles $15 Million Reward For New Intel On Iran’s Drone Network

There is little doubt that Iran’s Shahed drone threat has become a major concern, menacing surrounding Gulf states, commercial tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. bases across the region. This backdrop helps explain why the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program has now put up to $15 million for new information in connection with an already sanctioned Iranian drone-production network linked to the IRGC-Qods Force. 

Rewards for Justice has named Kimia Part Sivan Company (KIPAS), which the State Department says serves as the drone-production arm of the IRGC-Qods Force. KIPAS has tested drones, supported drone transfers to Iraq, and procured foreign-made components for Iran’s drone program.

“The IRGC has financed numerous terrorist attacks and activities globally, including via its proxies outside Iran, such as Hamas, Hizballah, and Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq. The IRGC funds its international activities – in part – through sales of military equipment, including UAVs. Proceeds from Iran’s sale of weapons and UAVs, including to buyers in Russia, also benefit the Iranian military, including the IRGC-QF,” Rewards for Justice wrote on its website.

The U.S. Treasury’s OFAC already sanctions KIPAS and appears on the Specially Designated Nationals list. OFAC designated KIPAS on October 29, 2021, for materially assisting the IRGC with its drone program.

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Musical Chairs

Yesterday, Trump spoke with Xi in Beijing. While markets kept a watchful eye on any headlines about the war in Iran, palates were left dry as only tepid announcements dripped out, such as that China “offered help” on Iran and “pledged not to send weapons.” What they did not manage to evade was a conversation about Taiwan. During the two and a half hour conversation with Trump, Xi underscored that US intervention in Taiwan could trigger a “highly dangerous situation.” While Rubio underscored that the topic of American arms sales to Taiwan wasn’t a major focus of discussion, it likely will be when Congress’ approved USD 14bn arms sale to Taiwan lands on Trump’s desk, and again when Xi visits the White House in September.

While the US and China are stalled in the geopolitical arena, the financial scene seems to be bearing fruit. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced that conversations around the creation of a “Board of Investment” were underway, and that tariffs would be reduced or removed for products that the US doesn’t plan on reshoring, like fireworks. China also agreed to buy 200 “big” Boeing planes, according to Trump, which would mark the first significant Chinese purchase of Boeing jets since the last time Trump went to Beijing in 2017. China also hinted that they may intend to buy more US energy to compensate for flows disrupted by the war.

Though Iran didn’t appear to produce much in the way of headlines, the Strait is still closed, and Brent crude oil is still trading above $100/bbl at $106/bbl at the time of writing. According to Reuters, the IRGC announced that some 30 vessels have crossed the Strait since Wednesday (with Tehran’s permission), and transit is being permitted for “some” Chinese vessels.

US Treasury yields closed higher after hotter-than-expected trade price data for April printed, with import prices up 1.9% m/m and export prices up 3.3% m/m. These were the fastest monthly price index increases since early 2022 for both. However, the import price index, excluding petroleum, registered more modest gains of only 0.7% which, while hotter than the expected print of 0.5%, is cooler than levels seen as recently as January and February of this year. USD was the best performing G10 currency yesterday on a one day view. Yesterday afternoon saw a surge in yields across the board, absent a clear driver in sparse news flow, as the 2 year closed 3bp higher, above 4.00%.

Warsh was recently voted in as Fed Chair by the US Senate, but this creates a game of grown up musical chairs for the Board of Governors. There can only be seven Governors on the FOMC, and with Powell not giving his seat up just yet, if no one steps down, we have eight. However, Stephen Miran has announced that he would be stepping down as Governor and has submitted his resignation, effective upon Warsh being sworn in. Miran also assured that while he believes it’s important that the Fed only have one chair, Powell could help Warsh through the transition.

Bloomberg’s Anna Wong hit Powell with an uncomfortable reality check: “if Powell’s Fed had been more active in getting its own house in order following a massive miss on inflation, outsiders would have had less motive and opportunity to attack.” Powell’s Fed was criticized for its slow response to the inflationary pressures which led to “the Great Inflation.” Wong summarizes that “[Powell’s] limited push for accountability, such as a thorough review of Fed’s forecasting framework, opened the door to the nomination of a more aggressive outside like Warsh, who has vowed to ‘break some heads’ at the Fed. The moral of story: Get your own house in order or someone will do it for you.”

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