Tag: inflation

The Fed Has Stopped Pretending Price Inflation Is Going Away

At its September 2024 meeting, the Fed’s FOMC cut the target federal funds rate by a historically large 50 basis points and then justified this cut on the grounds that “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”

The FOMC again cut the target rate in November and then again in December. Each time, the FOMC’s official statement said something to the effect of “[price] inflation is headed to two percent. Specifically, the November statement said “[Price inflation] has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.” The December statement said exactly the same thing.

It remains unclear what motivated the FOMC to slice the target rate so drastically in September. Was it a cynical political ploy to stimulate the economy right before an election? Or was the Fed spooked by weak economic data? We don’t know, and the Fed is a secretive organization.

But whatever the Fed actually believes, the committee’s claims about “greater confidence” in falling price inflation is now gone. The FOMC announced in January that it would not lower the target rate, and the FOMC also removed from its official statement the line about making progress “toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.” That sentence disappeared from the written statement, although Powell, in the press conference, apparently felt the need to remind the audience that “Inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal…” He nonetheless failed to mention anything about continued progress.

Keep reading

The Government Lost 36% of Your Money Last Year

In a 2022 interview, then-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg discussed how we was going to spend $1.2 trillion of taxpayer money from the recently passed infrastructure bill.

“The main thing I’m thinking about,” he said, “is how do we make sure we take all this money— you know it’s $1.2 trillion— and actually deliver $1.2 trillion dollars worth of value. . .”

That whole way of thinking is just astonishing.

If you invest $1 million in a business, you’re obviously going to expect that the CEO will deliver a lot more than $1 million in value from that investment. In fact a good executive will be able to turn a $1 million investment into tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in value.

But a couple years ago, when he was still Transportation Secretary, Pete encapsulated the government’s approach to investing. They’re not looking to get a 100x, 10x, or even 2x return.

To them, it’s quite an accomplishment to simply get X, i.e. to spend $1 trillion dollars efficiently enough to simply see $1 trillion of value.

If Pete had been a private sector investment manager, he would have been fired that very day.

I bring this up because the Commerce Department released fourth quarter GDP numbers yesterday, and their report showed that the US economy grew in “real terms” by 2.8% in 2024.

2.8% “real” GDP growth essentially means that the US economy produced 2.8% more goods and services in 2024 than it did in 2023. It strips out any impact of inflation.

But remember— America’s population grows by about 1% per year. And those are just the people in the country legally. If you include the folks who waltz across the southern border illegally, then the total population growth rate is easily 2% or more.

Keep reading

Inflation Storm Leaves Americans More Reliant On Food Banks

Emily Engelhard, Vice President of Research at Feeding America, told Bloomberg that elevated and persistent inflation ushered in a “new era of food insecurity,” emphasizing that “this is no longer an unemployment issue.” 

Feeding America, the largest charity working to end hunger in the US, has a nationwide network of more than 200 food banks that feed more than 46 million people through food pantries, soup kitchens, shelters, and other community-based agencies.

“Everyone sees prices getting high — for food, clothes, everything,” Kersstin Eshak told Bloomberg, who recently visited a food bank in Loudoun County, Virginia. She said the inflation nightmare over the last several years depleted her pocketbook.  

America’s cost-of-living crisis mostly erupted during the Biden-Harris regime’s first term. 

Ethan Amos, the head of the Flagstaff Family Food Center in Arizona, said his food bank broke records in 2022 by serving an average of 28,000 meals per month. That figure has now surged to a staggering 40,000 meals per month, driven by the inflationary pressures unleashed during the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous “Bidenomics.“

Believe it or not, Washington, DC, has a hunger crisis. The largest food bank in the area, Capital Area Food Bank, distributed 64 million meals last year—five million more than the previous year. Data from the food bank shows that food insecurity has risen most sharply among households earning $100,000–$150,000.

Keep reading

Egg Prices Catapult Into ‘Blue-Sky Breakout’ As Bird Flu Sparks Worsening Shortage

An ongoing and devastating avian influenza outbreak has severely dented the nation’s egg-producing hen population, driving wholesale prices into record-high territory and far surpassing the price explosion seen a few years ago when the bird flu first emerged. This is an alarming trend, and egg prices at the supermarket will likely rise further in the weeks and months ahead.

The latest wholesale data from Urner Barry shows that the price for a dozen eggs has jumped to a record high of $5.4, exceeding the previous peak of $4.65 set in December 2022. Rising wholesale prices are expected to continue pressuring supermarket prices higher.

Keep reading

Joe Biden’s farewell letter is full of classic Biden whoppers

On Joe Biden’s way out of office, he and his puppet masters are doing everything they can to tie Trump’s hands so they can blame him for failing to lower inflation, eliminate unnecessary federal workers, lower energy prices, and deport as many illegals as he promised and should.

They are also rewriting history, pretending that Biden’s four years in office made the world and America safer and more prosperous.

And now, Biden has issued a farewell letter, which was full of class Biden whoppers. Biden has been a serial liar throughout his fifty years in office so it’s completely expected, but he’s really outdone himself this time, starting out with one of his biggest, continuous lies, i.e. that he inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and his policies turned it around. From a report at Fox News:

Biden began his letter by writing that four years ago when he took office, ‘We were in the grip of the worst pandemic in a century, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression….’

The media know, or should know, that Biden inherited a rapidly growing economy, yet we see very few who correct Biden’s lies—so most Americans probably believe he actually did inherit a disaster. What Biden was actually handed though was a rapidly growing economy, low energy prices, overall inflation of 1.4%, a fairly secure border, and a relatively peaceful world—his executive orders and policies instantly undid all of that, and made things much worse for the last four years.

Keep reading

Why America Is in So Much Trouble

Shortly before Milton Friedman’s death in 2006, I had the privilege of interviewing him over dinner in San Francisco. The last question I asked him was: What are the three things we have to do to make America more prosperous?

His answer I have never forgotten: “First, allow universal school choice; second, expand free trade; third and most importantly, cut government spending.” That was long before Barack Obama and Joe Biden came along.

There aren’t too many problems in America that can’t be traced back to the growth of big and incompetent government.

It is notable that the two big bursts of inflation during modern times both occurred when government spending exploded. The first was the gigantic expansion of the Lyndon B. Johnson “war on poverty” welfare state in the 1970s with prices nearly doubling. Second was the post-COVID-19 spending blitz in the last year of Donald Trump’s first term, followed by the Biden $6 trillion spending spree, with the Consumer Price Index sprinting from 1.5% to 9.1%.

Coincidence? Maybe. But I doubt it.

The connection between government flab and the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar is obvious. In both cases the Washington spending blitz was funded by Federal Reserve money printing. The helicopter money caused prices to surge. (I still find it laughable that 11 Nobel Prize-winning economists wrote in the New York Times in 2021 that the Biden multitrillion-dollar spending spree wouldn’t cause inflation. Were they on hallucinogenic drugs?)

The avalanche of federal spending hasn’t stopped even though the COVID-19 pandemic ended over a year ago. We are three months into the 2025 fiscal year and on pace to spend an all-time-high $7 trillion and borrow $2 trillion. If we stay on this course, the federal budget could reach $10 trillion over the next decade.

This road to financial perdition cannot stand. It risks blowing up the Trump presidency.

Upon entering office, Trump should on day one call for a package of up to $500 billion of rescissions — money the last Congress appropriated but has not been spent yet. Canceling the green energy subsidies alone could save nearly $100 billion. Why are we still spending money on COVID-19?

We could save tens of billions of dollars by ending corporate welfare programs — such as the wheelbarrows full of tax dollars thrown at companies like Intel in the CHIPS Act. The Elon Musk Department of Government Efficiency is already identifying low-hanging fruit that needs to be cut from the tree.

Along with extending the Trump tax cut of 2017, this erasure of bloated federal spending is critical for economic revival and for reversing the income losses to the middle class under Biden.

This is especially urgent because the curse of inflation is NOT over. Since the Fed started cutting interest rates in October, commodity prices are up nearly 5%, and mortgage rates have again hit 7%, in part because the combination of cheap money and government expansion is a toxic economic brew — as history teaches us.

Keep reading

US Credit Card Defaults Soar To Crisis Highs As Inflation Storm Crushes Working-Poor

The party is long over for the bottom third of US consumers, as maxed-out credit cards and depleted personal savings have pushed credit card loan defaults to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

Financial Times cited new data from BankRegData revealing that credit card companies wrote off $46 billion in “seriously delinquent loan” balances in the first nine months of the year—an alarming 50% increase from the same period last year and the highest level in 14 years.

US credit debt recently surpassed $1 trillion and continues to expand rapidly. Making matters worse, annual percentage rates (APRs) on credit card debt have hit record highs, compounding the financial misery for cash-strapped consumers in the era of failed ‘Bidenomics’. 

Despite the interest rate cut, the average APR on credit card debt reached a new record at the end of the third quarter. 

Keep reading

Inflation Bites: The $38 Million Man

It’s easy to think of “inflation” as an abstract economic principle and forget that it has real impacts on real people.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the pain of price inflation during his press conference at the close of the December FOMC meeting.

“We understand very well that prices went up by a great deal, and people really feel that, and it’s prices of food and transportation and heating your home and things like that. So there’s tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global.”

Powell did not admit that he and his fellow central bankers were largely responsible for that pain, although he took credit for bringing inflation down, saying, “Now we have inflation itself is way down — but people are still feeling high prices — and that is really what people are feeling.”

Yes, Jay. We are feeling those high prices — because they haven’t come down! In fact, they continue to rise, just not as quickly as they were last year.

I might note here that inflation is on purpose. Making prices rise and go up is a stated policy. They just don’t want prices to rise so fast that you notice.

Unfortunately for the powers that be, you’ve noticed.

Just how much have prices gone up?

According to the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, prices are up 2.7 percent in the last year. But those of us living in the real world know prices have gone up much more than that.

Joaquin Henault and Laura Williams recently highlighted the dollar’s loss of purchasing power using the “Big Mac” index.

Keep reading

Demand At Food Banks Has Soared To Record Levels All Over The United States

Why is demand at food banks all over the country higher than it has ever been before?  The media keeps insisting that economic conditions are just fine, but it has become quite obvious to everyone that this is not true.  In particular, the rising cost of living has been absolutely crushing households from coast to coast.  In the old days, most of the people that would show up at food banks were unemployed.  But now food banks are serving large numbers of people that actually do have jobs but that don’t make enough to pay for all of the basics.  The ranks of the “working poor” are growing very rapidly, and this is creating an unprecedented crisis all over America.

Perhaps you think that I am exaggerating.

Let me share some specific examples that will prove that I am not.

In Pennsylvania, the Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank saw “its highest need on record this past year”…

A new report shows the Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank saw its highest need on record this past year. It comes as we mark Hunger Action Month across the country.

Toi Payne of Pittsburgh’s Allentown neighborhood gets emotional thinking about how the Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank in Duquesne and other local pantries have been lifesavers for her for the past 30 years.

“We need these places,” Payne said. “Without the food banks, I think a lot of people would be struggling even more, you know, and it helps like the elderly and people like me that’s on disability.”

We are also seeing record demand in Montana…

North Valley Food Bank in Whitefish served 613 families a Thanksgiving meal – a record high.

They anticipate more than 1,000 food bank customers for their Christmas holiday distribution on December 18-19.

“Year round here we’re feeding over a 1,000 of our neighbors every week and the need goes up during the holiday season,” said North Valley Food Bank Director of Development Mandy Gerth.

And in the San Francisco area…

This holiday season, food banks say they’re facing greater need than ever before. In Silicon Valley, they say 1 in 6 people are coming in for food assistance. In San Francisco, that number is 1 in 5. But the organizations say donations are not keeping up with demand.

For all the food banks, December is a big month. Both in terms of need, and in terms of fundraising. And they say what happens now will impact the entire year ahead.

In some parts of the nation, food banks are absolutely shattering all of the old records.

Keep reading

Shrinkflation Nation: The Hidden Price Hike in Your Shopping Cart

If you’ve ever wondered whether that family-size cereal box is getting a little less family-friendly, you’re not alone. A report from Purdue University confirms what eagle-eyed shoppers have long suspected: our groceries are going on an unprecedented diet. In fact, over three-quarters of American consumers report noticing their favorite food products shrinking while prices stay the same. This practice, known as “shrinkflation,” has become increasingly prevalent in grocery stores across the nation, with snack foods being the primary culprit of this subtle downsizing strategy.

The October 2024 Consumer Food Insights report, conducted by Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability (CFDAS), found that 77% of consumers have noticed shrinkflation in their grocery purchases over the past 30 days. The findings paint a picture of widespread awareness among shoppers, though many may still be missing the signs of this stealth price increase tactic.

Snack foods lead the pack as the most commonly noticed category affected by shrinkflation, with 78% of respondents reporting smaller portions in their favorite treats. Following closely behind are packaged desserts and sweets at 53% and frozen foods at 48%. The trend appears to be particularly noticeable to households with children, who report seeing shrinkflation across a broader range of product categories compared to households without children.

While consumers are becoming increasingly aware of shrinkflation, they may not be equipped to detect it effectively. The study revealed that while 82% of shoppers regularly check the overall price of items they’re buying, only about half consistently check the unit price or product weight – key indicators that would help spot shrinkflation in action. This disconnect between price awareness and size awareness may explain why many instances of shrinkflation go unnoticed until the change becomes obvious.

“A variety of factors may influence a producer’s decision to downsize a product’s size, such as rising costs in the supply chain and inflationary pressures,” explains the report’s lead author, Joseph Balagtas, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue and director of CFDAS, in a media release. “The goal is to better understand how consumers perceive these reductions and if they have noticed them happening at all.”

The research team put consumers to the test with a theoretical scenario: Would they prefer their favorite snack to maintain its current price of $3.00 but decrease from 6 ounces to 5 ounces, or keep the 6 oz size but increase to $3.60? Interestingly, despite the identical unit price in both scenarios, 53% of respondents chose the size decrease over the price increase. This preference suggests that psychological factors may be at play in how consumers perceive and react to different types of price adjustments.

The study also uncovered strong feelings about corporate transparency when it comes to shrinkflation. Three-quarters of consumers believe companies should be legally required to clearly label when products have been reduced in size or quantity. Many view shrinkflation as a profit-driven strategy rather than a necessary response to rising costs, with a majority agreeing that companies use it to increase profits even when cost pressures aren’t present.

This skepticism appears to have potential consequences for brand loyalty. A significant portion of consumers reported being less likely to trust brands that practice shrinkflation, and many indicated they would switch to different brands if they noticed their regular products shrinking. This suggests that while shrinkflation might help companies maintain profit margins in the short term, it could risk damaging customer relationships in the long run.

“It is interesting yet not entirely surprising to see this sentiment as articles about grocery prices, accusations of corporate greed and shrinkflation continue to circulate in popular news media,” notes Balagtas.

Keep reading