Tag: drones

The Five Most Likely Outcomes From The Russian Drone Incursion Into Poland

NATO forces directly intercepted Russian drones for the first time since the special operation began after some of them veered into Poland earlier this week, with this unprecedented incident arguably being due to NATO jamming as explained here.

Some commentators on both sides think that this might lead to World War III, but that’s a far-fetched scenario since NATO isn’t expected to kinetically respond by bombing Russia (even just Kaliningrad) and/or Belarus. The five most likely outcomes are actually that:

* The “EU Defense Line” Becomes A “Drone Wall”

The “Baltic Defense Line” and Poland’s “East Shield”, which are collectively known as the “EU Defense Line” that functions as the new Iron Curtain, might soon be outfitted with cutting-edge anti-drone capabilities as suggested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She spoke about creating an “Eastern Flank Watch” that would also become a “drone wall”, which the Baltic States have wanted for a while, and it makes sense to expand this program in both directions to Poland and Finland.

* Poland Expands Its Military Influence In The Baltics

As the most populous and prosperous formerly communist country in Central Europe, which has already built the third-largest army in NATO, Poland could easily expand its military influence over the region on the pretext of “defending against Russia”. New President Karol Nawrocki implied over the summer that the “Three Seas Initiative” would be the means towards this end and even declared during his latest trip to Lithuania that “we are responsible for entire region of Central Europe, including the Baltic States”.

* The US Expands Its Military Presence In Poland

Poland has been asking for more US troops for years, and Trump seemed willing to satisfy this request when he said during Nawrocki’s visit last month that “We’ll put more there if they want.” That might be what he had in mind when he tweeted “Here we go!” on Wednesday. As was assessed earlier this year, “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner” and “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5”, so this is within the realm of possibility.

* Poland Host Elements Of A NATO Sky Shield…

Less likely but nonetheless still possible is that Poland hosts elements of a NATO Sky Shield, whether for protecting the bloc’s eastern flank and/or extending this umbrella into Western Ukraine, the latter of which aligns with a proposed security guarantee. The 10,000 US troops in Poland might reassure it that Russia would be deterred from deliberately targeting these assets, not to mention if even more are deployed, but public opinion might keep this shield centered on Poland instead of shared with Ukraine.

* …But That’s As Far As Its Response Will Go

Regardless of whatever happens with the aforesaid scenario, Poland won’t go any further by deploying troops to Ukraine for example, which Nawrocki ruled out. Despite occasional speculation, Poland has no revanchist plans since it doesn’t want to be responsible for millions of ultra-nationalist Ukrainians, who could also wage a terrorist insurgency against its troops. It’s already exploring the lease of land and ports to recoup its aid and even profit so there’s no need to take such risks, including a hot war with Russia.

All in all, Poland is expected to avoid the trap of mission creep after last week’s incident, having already concluded some time ago that the potential benefits of escalating its involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict even further than it already has aren’t worth the risks.

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Two Incendiary Bombs Dropped on Gaza Flotilla Ships in Past Two Days

For the past two nights around 11:30pm Tunisia time, Israeli forces have dropped incendiary bombs from quadcopter drones on boats of the Global Sumud Flotilla in the waters near Tunis, Tunisia. On the night of September 8, 2025, the first incendiary bomb hit the deck of the lead ship of the flotilla, the “Familia,” causing a fire.

A crew member onboard “Familia” told me that he saw the quadcopter hovering about 20 feet above the ship and then going higher and moving to the bow of the ship. The quadcopter then dropped the incendiary device.

The second incendiary bomb dropped from a quadcopter drone hit the “Alma” ship in the night of September 9, 2025 and again caused a fire to break out.

The Global Sumud Flotilla will not Stop the Mission

The Global Sumud Flotilla issued a statement that the flotilla will not be deterred by the incendiary bombs:

“The Global Sumud Flotilla (GSF) confirms that on September 9, another boat in our fleet – the “Alma” – was attacked by a drone as it was docked in Tunisian waters. The boat, sailing under the British flag, sustained fire damage on its top deck. The fire has since been extinguished, and all passengers and crew are safe. An investigation is currently underway and when more information is available it will be released immediately. This marks the second such attack in two days.

These repeat attacks come during intensified Israeli aggression on Palestinians in Gaza, and are an orchestrated attempt to distract and derail our mission. The Global Sumud Flotilla continues undeterred. Our peaceful voyage to break Israel’s illegal siege on Gaza and stand in unwavering solidarity with its people presses forward with determination and resolve.”

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Russia Denies That It Launched Drones Into Poland

Poland said on Wednesday that NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that entered its airspace, while Moscow is denying that its forces launched drones into the NATO country.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that a total of 19 drones entered Poland’s airspace and that a large number of them came from Belarus, which also said it destroyed drones over its territory and suggested they were off course due to electronic jamming during an exchange of strikes between Russia and Ukraine.

In response, Tusk invoked NATO’s Article 4, which states that NATO members will “consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

According to CNN, Polish and Dutch jets intercepted the drones with assistance from Italian, German, and NATO’s multinational forces. Drones have previously entered Poland’s airspace, but Warsaw said this was the first time shots were fired by NATO jets to intercept them.

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Poland Triggers Article 4 After NATO Jets Engaged Russian Drones In Allied Airspace

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country would formally request the invocation of NATO’s Article 4 after an overnight Russian aerial attack on Ukraine saw the alleged violation of Poland’s airspace by multiple Russian drones. He called it an “act of aggression”.

Tusk cited that 19 drones breached the country’s airspace throughout the incident, resulting in some of them being shot down. NATO’s Article 4 states: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Article 4 consultations can lead to the alliance taking action if the consensus is reached. Notes from Poland says “It has previously been invoked seven times, including by Poland and seven other countries when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

“Triggering Article 4 launches a consultation process within NATO, which can then lead to the alliance taking action. In 2022, it resulted in NATO providing support to Ukraine and activating its own response force,” the analysis continues.

A Spokesperson for the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe has described of the overnight border breach of NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ member Poland that this was “the first time NATO aircraft had engaged potential threats in allied airspace.”

He further confirmed that German Patriots in Poland were “placed on alert and that an Italian airborne early warning aircraft and an aerial refueler from NATO’s Multinational Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) fleet were also launched,” as cited in Newsweek.

As for Tusk, he said in his address, “We are dealing with a large-scale provocation” and that “the situation is serious, and no one doubts that we must prepare for various scenarios.”

However, this certainly isn’t the first time errant drones have crossed into Poland, but in this instance they were reported to have ‘threatened’ a Polish city some 40 miles away from the border with Ukraine. The NY Times notes:

But the apparent scale of the incursion and the joint NATO response in the early hours of Wednesday was a startling reminder of the risk that the war in Ukraine could escalate into direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. It was not yet clear whether Russia intentionally sent its drones into Poland, which would represent a clear expansion of the conflict.

Kiev has been trying to hype this threat, and it is in its interest to do so, as it has long sought to get NATO more directly involved in the war with Russia.

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Mexican cartel was taught drone warfare in Ukraine – media

A powerful Mexican drug cartel has acquired advanced drone warfare skills in Ukraine, the Milenio newspaper reported on Monday.

Moscow has long argued that the Ukraine conflict fuels global instability by spreading weapons and fostering reckless behavior by Kiev in pursuit of its war aims. Foreign fighters have become a key part of Ukraine’s military strategy as authorities face resistance to conscription at home.

Milenio examined propaganda materials released by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), a major criminal group based in western Mexico, including footage showing a drone-armed hit squad operating with apparent military discipline and tactical expertise. Experts cited by the paper said the group’s methods and armaments bore similarities to battlefield practices in the Ukraine conflict.

Mexican intelligence believes CJNG members received training in drone and urban warfare tactics in Ukraine, sources in the Jalisco state government told Milenio.

The report highlighted the cartel’s use of specific equipment, including DJI Matrice 300 RTK drones commonly employed in the Ukraine conflict. The quadcopter aircraft, marketed for civilian use, can carry payloads of up to 3kg, operate at night, and fly long distances.

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Russia Attacks Ukraine Overnight With Record 1,000 Drones

Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with an estimated over 1,000 drones and missiles, possibly a record.

Since the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, the bombing campaign from Moscow has intensified, with Russia sensing complete victory as the Ukrainian army slowly retreat in the face of the Russian onslaught.

Kyiv has resorted to increasing long-range attacks against the Russian Federation via its growing high-tech capability to produce drones and other projectiles.

The conflict now seems to be a numbers game.

Europe is feckless, although continues to provide aid to Kyiv, militarily and financially.

Arms deals are being consummated between the U.S. and Europe, destined for Ukraine. Although, it is becoming murky as to the exact money flows being routed.

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Trump to reinterpret 1987 missile treaty to sell heavy attack drones abroad

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unilaterally reinterpret a 38-year-old arms control treaty to sell sophisticated “Reaper” style and other advanced military drones abroad, according to a U.S. official and four people familiar with the plan.

The new interpretation would unlock the sale of more than 100 MQ-9 drones to Saudi Arabia, which the kingdom requested in the spring of this year and could be part of a US$142 billion arms deal announced in May. U.S. allies in the Pacific and Europe have also expressed interest.

By designating drones as aircraft like the F-16 rather than missile systems, the United States will sidestep the 35-nation Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) agreement it signed in 1987, propelling drone sales to countries like UAE and in Eastern European nations that have struggled to get their hands on America’s best unmanned aerial vehicles.

The new policy will allow General Atomics, Kratos, and Anduril, which manufacture large drones, to have their products treated as “Foreign Military Sales” by the State Department, allowing them to be easily sold internationally, according to a U.S. official speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

This effort is the first part of a planned “major” review of the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program, the official said.

A U.S. Department of State spokesperson declined to comment.

Under the current interpretation of the MTCR, the sale of many military drones is subject to a “strong presumption of denial” unless a compelling security reason is given and the buyer agrees to use the weapons in strict accordance with international law.

The MTCR was originally meant to curb the sale of long-range missiles that can deliver weapons of mass destruction. Though drones were invented many years later they were considered within the scope of the MTCR due to their ability to fly long distances and carry weapons.

U.S. drone manufacturers are facing stiff competition overseas, especially from Israeli, Chinese and Turkish rivals who often sell under lighter restrictions.

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Ukraine to help Taiwan build combat drones

A Ukrainian tech hub has signed a deal with a Taiwanese defense company to design and build combat drones, according to an announcement on Wednesday. Poland will also provide expertise.

The move was announced at the International Defense Industry Exhibition (MSPO) in Kielce, Poland, and comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing in the South China Sea.

According to Focus Taiwan, Ukraine will contribute research and development, Poland will provide expertise, and Taichung-based firm Thunder Tiger will supply technology and components. Earlier this year, Thunder Tiger unveiled an FPV drone capable of carrying an 81mm mortar as well as a new naval kamikaze

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IDF drones mistakenly drop grenades close to UNIFIL troops

The IDF mistakenly sent drones to drop grenades close to UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon, believing they were Hezbollah forces, it said Wednesday afternoon.

Earlier on Wednesday, UNIFIL said Israeli drones had dropped four grenades close to its peacekeepers who were working on Tuesday morning to clear roadblocks that were hindering access to a UN position.

“This is one of the most serious attacks on UNIFIL personnel and assets since the cessation of hostilities agreement of last November,” UNIFIL said.

One grenade impacted within 20 meters and three within approximately 100 meters of UN personnel and vehicles, it said.

The IDF had been informed in advance of UNIFIL’s road clearance work in the area, southeast of the village of Marwahin, UNIFIL said.

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Electromagnetic Weapon Destroys Drone Swarm In Seconds: ‘Singularity Event’

Drones have quickly become all the rage among military leaders and Silicon Valley investors, but new weaponry could threaten the nascent technology’s swift rise.

Last Tuesday, defense contractor Epirus quietly tested its latest electromagnetic weapon, Leonidas, against a swarm of 49 quadcopters, neutralizing them in seconds at Camp Atterbury, Indiana, according to Axios, the only news outlet invited to the groundbreaking test. Numerous U.S. military services and foreign allies, including Indo-Pacific partners, witnessed the event. In an interview with Axios, Epirus CEO Andy Lowery hailed the “forcefield system” as a “singularity event.”

The test by Epirus comes as the U.S. military is aggressively advancing its drone capabilities to maintain air superiority in an era of rapidly evolving unmanned systems, spurred by lessons from conflicts like Ukraine’s use of commercial drones against Russia. The Pentagon’s recent policy shift, announced in July by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, reclassifies small drones (Group 1 and 2, under 55 pounds) as consumables akin to ammunition, empowering lower-level commanders to procure and deploy them swiftly, bypassing cumbersome bureaucratic processes. The move, which is part of Hegseth’s “Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance” directive, mandates that every U.S. military squad, prioritizing Indo-Pacific units, integrate U.S.-made drones by 2026.

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